Single Model Research Articles

Toward Generalizable Machine Learning Models in Speech, Language, and Hearing Sciences: Estimating Sample Size and Reducing Overfitting.

Many studies using machine learning (ML) in speech, language, and hearing sciences rely upon cross-validations with single data splitting. This study's first purpose is to provide quantitative evidence that would incentivize researchers to instead use the more robust data splitting method of nested k-fold cross-validation. The second purpose is to present methods and MATLAB code to perform power analysis for ML-based analysis during the design of a study. First, the significant impact of different cross-validations on ML outcomes was demonstrated using real-world clinical data. Then, Monte Carlo simulations were used to quantify the interactions among the employed cross-validation method, the discriminative power of features, the dimensionality of the feature space, the dimensionality of the model, and the sample size. Four different cross-validation methods (single holdout, 10-fold, train-validation-test, and nested 10-fold) were compared based on the statistical power and confidence of the resulting ML models. Distributions of the null and alternative hypotheses were used to determine the minimum required sample size for obtaining a statistically significant outcome (5% significance) with 80% power. Statistical confidence of the model was defined as the probability of correct features being selected for inclusion in the final model. ML models generated based on the single holdout method had very low statistical power and confidence, leading to overestimation of classification accuracy. Conversely, the nested 10-fold cross-validation method resulted in the highest statistical confidence and power while also providing an unbiased estimate of accuracy. The required sample size using the single holdout method could be 50% higher than what would be needed if nested k-fold cross-validation were used. Statistical confidence in the model based on nested k-fold cross-validation was as much as four times higher than the confidence obtained with the single holdout-based model. A computational model, MATLAB code, and lookup tables are provided to assist researchers with estimating the minimum sample size needed during study design. The adoption of nested k-fold cross-validation is critical for unbiased and robust ML studies in the speech, language, and hearing sciences. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.25237045.

Convolutional Neural Networks for Raw Signal Classification in CNC Turning Process Monitoring.

This study addresses the need for advanced machine learning-based process monitoring in smart manufacturing. A methodology is developed for near-real-time part quality prediction based on process-related data obtained from a CNC turning center. Instead of the manual feature extraction methods typically employed in signal processing, a novel one-dimensional convolutional architecture allows the trained model to autonomously extract pertinent features directly from the raw signals. Several signal channels are utilized, including vibrations, motor speeds, and motor torques. Three quality indicators-average roughness, peak-to-valley roughness, and diameter deviation-are monitored using a single model, resulting in a compact and efficient classifier. Training data are obtained via a small number of experiments designed to induce variability in the quality metrics by varying feed, cutting speed, and depth of cut. A sliding window technique augments the dataset and allows the model to seamlessly operate over the entire process. This is further facilitated by the model's ability to distinguish between cutting and non-cutting phases. The base model is evaluated via k-fold cross validation and achieves average F1 scores above 0.97 for all outputs. Consistent performance is exhibited by additional instances trained under various combinations of design parameters, validating the robustness of the proposed methodology.

Modeling of an Irrigation Main Canal Pool based on a [formula omitted]-[formula omitted] System Identification

Dynamic models of main irrigation canals are necessary to carry out real-time canal flow control and supervision. Since the hydraulic equations of canal dynamics are nonlinear, their solution involves large computations that impede their use in real-time applications. Then these tasks are often implemented using simple local linear models obtained around an operating point, that are unable to capture the dynamics when large canal operation changes happen.In this paper, we propose a nonlinear dynamic model for main irrigation canal pools based on a new Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This ANN outperforms the above local models because it includes a new input which is the downstream water level of the previous pool. This new architecture with this new input yields models that accurately reproduce the behavior of the canal in a wide range of operations while being simple enough to allow real-time control and supervision. The high accuracy of the proposed model as regards reproducing the observed data is validated for different flow regimes based on experiments developed in a laboratory prototype of the hydraulic canal and in a real main irrigation canal.The contribution of this work is such a general and accurate but simple model of the dynamics of a canal pool. Its novelty is not only being able to reproduce the behavior at different operating points of the canal but also being able to reproduce, in a single model, the free and submerged flow regimes — which are described by dynamic equations with different structures. Moreover, we implement a new classification model to recognize the flow regimes of the irrigation canals using pattern recognition.

Charge-Optimized Electrostatic Interaction Atom-Centered Neural Network Algorithm.

Machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to capture electrostatic interactions by using effective partial charges. These algorithms often rely on a pretrained model for partial charge prediction using density functional theory-calculated partial charges as references, which introduces complexity to the force field model. The accuracy of the trained model also depends on the reliability of charge partition methods, which can be dependent on the specific system and methodology employed. In this study, we propose an atom-centered neural network (ANN) algorithm that eliminates the need for reference charges. Our algorithm requires only a single NN model for each element to obtain both atomic energy and charges. These atomic charges are then employed to compute electrostatic energies using the Ewald summation algorithm. Subsequently, the force field model is trained on total energy and forces, with the inclusion of electrostatic energy. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we conducted tests on three benchmark systems, including a Ge slab with an O adatom system, a TiO2 crystalline system, and a Pd-O nanoparticle system. Our results demonstrate reasonably accurate predictions of partial charges and electrostatic interactions. This algorithm provides a self-consistent charge prediction strategy and possibilities for robust and reliable modeling of electrostatic interactions in machine-learning potentials.

The impact of sterility-mortality tolerance and recovery-transmission trade-offs on host-parasite coevolution.

Understanding the coevolutionary dynamics of hosts and their parasites remains a major focus of much theoretical literature. Despite empirical evidence supporting the presence of sterility-mortality tolerance trade-offs in hosts and recovery-transmission trade-offs in parasites, none of the current models have explored the potential outcomes when both trade-offs are considered within a coevolutionary framework. In this study, we consider a model where the host evolves sterility tolerance at the cost of increased mortality and the parasite evolves higher transmission rate at the cost of increased recovery rate (reduced infection duration), and use adaptive dynamics to predict the coevolutionary outcomes under such trade-off assumptions. We particularly aim to understand how our coevolutionary dynamics compare with single species evolutionary models. We find that evolutionary branching in the host can drive the parasite population to branch, but that cycles in the population dynamics can prevent the coexisting strains from reaching their extremes. We also find that varying crowding does not impact the recovery rate when only the parasite evolves, yet coevolution reduces recovery as crowding intensifies. We conclude by discussing how different host and parasite trade-offs shape coevolutionary outcomes, underscoring the pivotal role of trade-offs in coevolution.

The role of conflict and opportunism on the duality of satisfaction in B2B sales relationships

Purpose This study aims to explore the direct and indirect effects of sales opportunism and sales conflict as well as of non-economic and economic satisfaction in business-to-business (B2B) sales relationships. This understanding offers B2B buyers enhanced knowledge of sales business expectations towards sustainable business relationships in the future. Design/methodology/approach Through self-administered questionnaires, data were obtained from 237 sales or marketing managers/directors of small- and medium-sized companies across industries in Spain, who were randomly contacted via LinkedIn. The multivariate analysis of measurement and structural models was based on IBM SPSS Amos 27. Findings The study confirms that sales opportunism positively affects sales conflict. Moreover, sales opportunism is negatively associated with non-economic sales satisfaction, whereas non-economic sales satisfaction is positively associated with economic sales satisfaction. Consequently, if all associates are pleased with the relationship and the gains it can provide, a long-standing orientation can be achieved. Research limitations/implications The study expands existing theory on seller–buyer relationships in a B2B context. It contextualises direct and indirect relationships between two antecedents (sales opportunism and sales conflict) and two postcedents (economic sales satisfaction and non-economic sales satisfaction) in sales business–buyer settings. Practical implications The study guides buyers in B2B relationships towards an improved understanding of how sales businesses perceive opportunism and conflict (as negative precursors) to impact non-economic satisfaction and how it can influence economic satisfaction. Originality/value Most studies explore B2B relationship building from the perspective of the buyer, thereby creating a shortfall in developing an understanding of all partner expectations in B2B relational intent. Moreover, the measurement of satisfaction as a multidimensional construct secured the integration of non-economic satisfaction and economic satisfaction within a single model allowing the constructs measured in this study to be holistically assessed.

Comparative analysis of the hybrid gazelle‐Nelder–Mead algorithm for parameter extraction and optimization of solar photovoltaic systems

AbstractThe pressing need for sustainable energy solutions has driven significant research in optimizing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems which is crucial for maximizing energy conversion efficiency. Here, a novel hybrid gazelle‐Nelder–Mead (GOANM) algorithm is proposed and evaluated. The GOANM algorithm synergistically integrates the gazelle optimization algorithm (GOA) with the Nelder–Mead (NM) algorithm, offering an efficient and powerful approach for parameter extraction in solar PV models. This investigation involves a thorough assessment of the algorithm's performance across diverse benchmark functions, including unimodal, multimodal, fixed‐dimensional multimodal, and CEC2020 benchmark functions. Notably, the GOANM consistently outperforms other optimization approaches, demonstrating enhanced convergence speed, accuracy, and reliability. Furthermore, the application of the GOANM is extended to the parameter extraction of the single diode and double diode models of RTC France solar cell and PV model of Photowatt‐PWP201 PV module. The experimental results consistently demonstrate that the GOANM outperforms other optimization approaches in terms of accurate parameter estimation, low root mean square values, fast convergence, and alignment with experimental data. These results emphasize its role in achieving superior performance and efficiency in renewable energy systems.

Simplified Methods for Modelling Dependent Parameters in Health Economic Evaluations: A Tutorial.

In health economic evaluations, model parameters are often dependent on other model parameters. Although methods exist to simulate multivariate normal (MVN) distribution data and estimate transition probabilities in Markov models while considering competing risks, they are technically challenging for health economic modellers to implement. This tutorial introduces easily implementable applications for handling dependent parameters in modelling. Analytical proofs and proposed simplified methods for handling dependent parameters in typical health economic modelling scenarios are provided, and implementation of these methods are illustrated in seven examples along with the SAS and R code. Methods to quantify the covariance and correlation coefficients of correlated variables based on published summary statistics and generation of MVN distribution data are demonstrated using examples of physician visits data and cost component data. The use of univariate normal distribution data instead of MVN distribution data to capture population heterogeneity is illustrated based on the results from multiple regression models with linear predictors, and two examples are provided (linear fixed-effects model and Cox proportional hazards model). A conditional probability method is introduced to handle two or more state transitions in a single Markov model cycle and applied in examples of one- and two-way state transitions. This tutorial proposes an extension of routinely used methods along with several examples. These simplified methods may be easily applied by health economic modellers with varied statistical backgrounds.

Finite-time disturbance observer-based levitation control for vehicle-guideway coupling systems

In this study, a novel composite control scheme for the vehicle-guideway coupling systems is proposed, consisting of FTDOs and a FTC, aiming to address the challenges of unknown disturbances and vibration suppression. Specifically, this method adopts a single magnet-track coupling model and introduces a finite-time disturbance observer (FTDO) that utilizes only measured electromagnet-side signals to estimate unmeasurable states and unknown disturbances. Based on the estimated information provided by the FTDO, a finite-time control (FTC) scheme is developed, which simultaneously handles the problems of disturbance compensation and finite-time tracking control. Additionally, the finite-time stability of the levitation system is analyzed and proven. Finally, simulation and experimental results are given to demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed control approach.

Explainable data stream mining: Why the new models are better

Explainable Machine Learning brings expandability, interpretability, and accountability to Data Mining Algorithms. Existing explanation frameworks focus on explaining the decision process of a single model in a static dataset. However, in data stream mining changes in data distribution over time, called concept drift, may require updating the learning models to reflect the current data environment. It is therefore important to go beyond static models and understand what has changed among the learning models before and after a concept drift. We propose a Data Stream Explanability framework (DSE) that works together with a typical data stream mining framework where support vector machine models are used. DSE aims to help non-expert users understand model dynamics in a concept drifting data stream. DSE visualizes differences between SVM models before and after concept drift, to produce explanations on why the new model fits the data better. A survey was carried out between expert and non-expert users on the effectiveness of the framework. Although results showed non-expert users on average responded with less understanding of the issue compared to expert users, the difference is not statistically significant. This indicates that DSE successfully brings the explanability of model change to non-expert users.

Investigation of K2Cu(Cl,Br)3 crystalline scintillators

K2Cu(Cl,Br)3 crystals were prepared by the slow cooling method and evaluated for photoluminescence (PL) and scintillation properties. PL emission and scintillation peaks due to the recombination of excitons were observed at 400 nm. The PL quantum yields were estimated to be 61.0% for K2CuCl3, 72.7% for K2Cu(Cl0.5,Br0.5)3, and 75.8% for K2CuBr3, respectively. The scintillation decay curves were approximated by a single exponential function model, and the calculated decay time constants were 14–60 μs. The afterglow levels at 20 ms passed after X-ray irradiation were obtained to be 5–1225 ppm. The light yields of K2CuCl3 and K2Cu(Cl0.5,Br0.5)3 were 7700 and 9900 photons MeV−1 when calculated from the pulse height spectra under 137Cs γ-ray (662 keV) irradiation.

Daily Runoff Prediction with a Seasonal Decomposition-Based Deep GRU Method

Accurately predicting hydrological runoff is crucial for water resource allocation and power station scheduling. However, there is no perfect model that can accurately predict future runoff. In this paper, a daily runoff prediction method with a seasonal decomposition-based-deep gated-recurrent-unit (GRU) method (SD-GRU) is proposed. The raw data is preprocessed and then decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components using the seasonal decomposition algorithm. The deep GRU model is then used to predict each subcomponent, which is then integrated into the final prediction results. In particular, the hyperparameter optimization algorithm of tree-structured parzen estimators (TPE) is used to optimize the model. Moreover, this paper introduces the single machine learning model (including multiple linear regression (MLR), back propagation (BP), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) and gate recurrent unit (GRU)) and a combination model (including seasonal decomposition–back propagation (SD-BP), seasonal decomposition–multiple linear regression (SD-MLR), along with seasonal decomposition–long-and-short-term-memory neural network (SD-LSTM), which are used as comparison models to verify the excellent prediction performance of the proposed model. Finally, a case study of the Qingjiang Shuibuya test set, which considers the period 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019, is conducted. Case studies of the Qingjiang River show the proposed model outperformed the other models in prediction performance. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) index of 38.5, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index of 0.93, and a coefficient of determination (R2) index of 0.7. In addition, compared to the comparison model, the NSE index of the proposed model increased by 19.2%, 19.2%, 16.3%, 16.3%, 2.2%, 2.2%, and 1.1%, when compared to BP, MLR, LSTM, GRU, SD-BP, SD-MLR, SD-LSTM, and SD-GRU, respectively. This research can provide an essential reference for the study of daily runoff prediction models.

Short-Term Prediction of the Intermediate Point Temperature of a Supercritical Unit Based on the EEMD–LSTM Method

The quality of the intermediate point temperature control of a supercritical unit is directly related to the quality of the coal–water ratio and main steam temperature control of the supercritical unit, which is also related to the economy and safety of the unit. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term predictions of the intermediate point temperature, a short-term prediction model of the intermediate point temperature based on the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition)-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model is proposed. This model uses the data of a 600 MW thermal power station in 2022 as a sample. The EEMD method is used to decompose the historical data into IMF components and residual components, and the correlation between each component and the original data is calculated. The relevant components are sent to the LSTM neural network, and all the sub-components are superimposed to obtain the final intermediate point temperature prediction results. At the same time, the BP and LSTM models are built to compare the errors with the proposed model. The results show that the single model will produce large errors when predicting the factors of large data fluctuations. The EEMD–LSTM coupling model can fully extract the detailed features and the prediction effect is obvious. The prediction accuracy of the EEMD–LSTM prediction model built in this paper is significantly better than that of the other two models. It has certain application value in the research field of intermediate point temperature prediction and can meet the requirements of short-term predictions of the intermediate point temperature.

Evaluation of shaft angle to ball-to-target line as a predictor of horizontal delivery plane angle in the golf swing

ABSTRACT The shaft angle to the ball-to-target line at various points in the golf swing is used by coaches as an indication of the horizontal delivery plane angle (HPA). The aim of the current study was to understand to what degree this simplified method of using the shaft orientation can predict the orientation of the HPA. Fifty-two male golfers hit 40 drives each in an indoor biomechanics laboratory. Between-subject regression models were created for the relationship between the HPA and the shaft angle to the ball-to-target line at three different swing positions. Additionally, single subject regression models were created for each subject for the small variables. The only significant between-subjects regression model was for mid-downswing (Adjusted R2 = 89.5%, RMSE = 2.41°); however, this was deemed not accurate enough to distinguish differences between typical driver and wedge HPA. The only shaft position to have significant single-subject regression models for all participants was mid-downswing. The mean RMSE for those models was determined to be low enough to distinguish typical driver and wedge swing planes within individuals. Overall, the shaft angle was only deemed accurate enough to predict the HPA within individual subjects, and only for mid-downswing.

Unifying supervised learning and VAEs: coverage, systematics and goodness-of-fit in normalizing-flow based neural network models for astro-particle reconstructions

Neural-network based predictions of event properties in astro-particle physics are getting more and more common. However, in many cases the result is just utilized as a point prediction. Statistical uncertainties, coverage, systematic uncertainties or a goodness-of-fit measure are often not calculated. Here we describe a certain choice of training and network architecture that allows to incorporate all these properties into a single network model. We show that a KL-divergence objective of the joint distribution of data and labels allows to unify supervised learning and variational autoencoders (VAEs) under one umbrella of stochastic variational inference. The unification motivates an extended supervised learning scheme which allows to calculate a goodness-of-fit p-value for the neural network model. Conditional normalizing flows amortized with a neural network are crucial in this construction. We discuss how to calculate coverage probabilities without numerical integration for specific “base-ordered” contours that are unique to normalizing flows. Furthermore we show how systematic uncertainties can be included via effective marginalization during training. The proposed extended supervised training incorporates (1) coverage calculation, (2) systematics and (3) a goodness-of-fit measure in a single machine-learning model. There are in principle no constraints on the shape of the involved distributions, in fact the machinery works with complex multi-modal distributions defined on product spaces like Rn×Sm\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\mathbb {R}}^n \ imes {\\mathbb {S}}^m$$\\end{document}. The coverage calculation, however, requires care in its interpretation when the distributions are too degenerate. We see great potential for exploiting this per-event information in event selections or for fast astronomical alerts which require uncertainty guarantees.

A homogenized two-phase computational framework for meso- and macroscale blood flow simulations

Background and ObjectiveOwing to the complexity of physics linked with blood flow and its associated phenomena, appropriate modeling of the multi-constituent rheology of blood is of primary importance. To this effect, various kinds of computational fluid dynamic models have been developed, each with merits and limitations. However, when additional physics like thrombosis and embolization is included within the framework of these models, computationally efficient scalable translation becomes very difficult. Therefore, this paper presents a homogenized two-phase blood flow framework with similar characteristics to a single fluid model but retains the flow resolution of a classical two-fluid model. The presented framework is validated against four different sets of experiments. MethodsThe two-phase model of blood presented here is based on the classical diffusion-flux framework. Diffusion flux models are known to be less computationally expensive than two-fluid multiphase models since the numerical implementation resembles single-phase flow models. Diffusion flux models typically use empirical slip velocity correlations to resolve the motion between phases. However, such correlations do not exist for blood. Therefore, a modified slip velocity equation is proposed, derived rigorously from the two-fluid governing equations. An additional drag law for red blood cells (RBCs) as a function of volume fraction is evaluated using a previously published cell-resolved solver. A new hematocrit-dependent expression for lift force on RBCs is proposed. The final governing equations are discretized and solved using the open-source software OpenFOAM. ResultsThe framework is validated against four sets of experiments: (i) flow through a rectangular microchannel to validate RBC velocity profiles against experimental measurements and compare computed hematocrit distributions against previously reported simulation results (ii) flow through a sudden expansion microchannel for comparing experimentally obtained contours of hematocrit distributions and normalized cell-free region length obtained at different flowrates and inlet hematocrits, (iii) flow through two hyperbolic channels to evaluate model predictions of cell-free layer thickness, and (iv) flow through a microchannel that mimics crevices of a left ventricular assist device to predict hematocrit distributions observed experimentally. The simulation results exhibit good agreement with the results of all four experiments. ConclusionThe computational framework presented in this paper has the advantage of resolving the multiscale physics of blood flow while still leveraging numerical techniques used for solving single-phase flows. Therefore, it becomes an excellent candidate for addressing more complicated problems related to blood flow, such as modeling mechanical entrapment of RBCs within blood clots, predicting thrombus composition, and visualizing clot embolization.

Bridging the Adsorption Data and Adsorption Process by Introducing a Polynomial Structure To Accurately Describe IUPAC Isotherms, Stepwise Isotherms, and Stepwise Breakthrough Curves.

Porous heterogeneous adsorbents, those composed of multiple pore structures and surface chemical adsorption sites, can result in various gas or vapor adsorption isotherms, including five types of IUPAC adsorption isotherms and stepwise adsorption isotherms that have been difficult to model using a single adsorption equilibrium model. The limitation of the above equilibrium model further restricts the calculations of complex stepwise breakthrough curves. To bridge the adsorption data and adsorption process, it is important to first develop a simple model or method to describe these isotherms of various complex adsorption systems. In this work, assuming that the effect of the diffusion rate can be neglected under the static condition and the adsorption process is discontinuous, the number of adsorption isotherm inflection points can be used to represent the changed number of adsorption interactions. With the introduction of the polynomial structure, a series of empirical or semi-empirical polynomial adsorption models were developed. The N-site polynomial Langmuir-Freundlich equation could accurately fit common type I, II, III, IV, and V adsorption isotherms and complex stepwise adsorption isotherms covering various adsorbates, such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs), toxic industrial chemicals (TICs), water vapor, and carbon dioxide, as well as different adsorbents, such as metal/covalent organic frameworks (MOFs/COFs), zeolites, and porous carbons. Similarly, the introduction of a polynomial structure, such as the N-site polynomial Yoon-Nelson equation, was also successful in the description of interesting stepwise breakthrough curves. This work provides a more accurate adsorption equilibrium model to characterize all types of isotherms. As a foundation model, it is expected to be used to simulate the gas-solid adsorption process inside the fixed and fluidized beds packed with porous adsorbents.

Applying Machine Learning and Statistical Forecasting Methods for Enhancing Pharmaceutical Sales Predictions

In today’s evolving global world, the pharmaceutical sector faces an emerging challenge, which is the rapid surge of the global population and the consequent growth in drug production demands. Recognizing this, our study explores the urgent need to strengthen pharmaceutical production capacities, ensuring drugs are allocated and stored strategically to meet diverse regional and demographic needs. Summarizing our key findings, our research focuses on the promising area of drug demand forecasting using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance predictions in the pharmaceutical field. Supplied with a rich dataset from Kaggle spanning 600,000 sales records from a singular pharmacy, our study embarks on a thorough exploration of univariate time series analysis. Here, we pair conventional analytical tools such as ARIMA with advanced methodologies like LSTM neural networks, all with a singular vision: refining the precision of our sales. Venturing deeper, our data underwent categorisation and were segmented into eight clusters premised on the ATC Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification System framework. This segmentation unravels the evident influence of seasonality on drug sales. The analysis not only highlights the effectiveness of machine learning models but also illuminates the remarkable success of XGBoost. This algorithm outperformed traditional models, achieving the lowest MAPE values: 17.89% for M01AB (anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, acetic acid derivatives, and related substances), 16.92% for M01AE (anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, and propionic acid derivatives), 17.98% for N02BA (analgesics, antipyretics, and anilides), and 16.05% for N02BE (analgesics, antipyretics, pyrazolones, and anilides). XGBoost further demonstrated exceptional precision with the lowest MSE scores: 28.8 for M01AB, 1518.56 for N02BE, and 350.84 for N05C (hypnotics and sedatives). Additionally, the Seasonal Naïve model recorded an MSE of 49.19 for M01AE, while the Single Exponential Smoothing model showed an MSE of 7.19 for N05B. These findings underscore the strengths derived from employing a diverse range of approaches within the forecasting series. In summary, our research accentuates the significance of leveraging machine learning techniques to derive valuable insights for pharmaceutical companies. By applying the power of these methods, companies can optimize their production, storage, distribution, and marketing practices.

Significant Improvement in Soil Organic Carbon Estimation Using Data-Driven Machine Learning Based on Habitat Patches

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is generally thought to act as a carbon sink; however, in areas with high spatial heterogeneity, using a single model to estimate the SOC of the whole study area will greatly reduce the simulation accuracy. The earth surface unit division is important to consider in building different models. Here, we divided the research area into different habitat patches using partitioning around a medoids clustering (PAM) algorithm; then, we built an SOC simulation model using machine learning algorithms. The results showed that three habitat patches were created. The simulation accuracy for Habitat Patch 1 (R2 = 0.55; RMSE = 2.89) and Habitat Patch 3 (R2 = 0.47; RMSE = 3.94) using the XGBoost model was higher than that for the whole study area (R2 = 0.44; RMSE = 4.35); although the R2 increased by 25% and 6.8%, the RMSE decreased by 33.6% and 9.4%, and the field sample points significantly declined by 70% and 74%. The R2 of Habitat Patch 2 using the RF model increased by 17.1%, and the RMSE also decreased by 10.5%; however, the sample points significantly declined by 58%. Therefore, using different models for corresponding patches will significantly increase the SOC simulation accuracy over using one model for the whole study area. This will provide scientific guidance for SOC or soil property monitoring with low field survey costs and high simulation accuracy.

Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Prediction Based on Decomposition and Reconstruction and XGBoost under Two Base Learners

Photovoltaic power generation prediction constitutes a significant research area within the realm of power system artificial intelligence. Accurate prediction of future photovoltaic output is imperative for the optimal dispatchment and secure operation of the power grid. This study introduces a photovoltaic prediction model, termed ICEEMDAN-Bagging-XGBoost, aimed at enhancing the accuracy of photovoltaic power generation predictions. In this paper, the original photovoltaic power data initially undergo decomposition utilizing the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) algorithm, with each intrinsic mode function (IMF) derived from this decomposition subsequently reconstructed into high-frequency, medium-frequency, and low-frequency components. Targeting the high-frequency and medium-frequency components of photovoltaic power, a limiting gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) is employed as the foundational learner in the Bagging parallel ensemble learning method, with the incorporation of a sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to refine the hyperparameters of XGBoost, thereby facilitating more nuanced tracking of the changes in the photovoltaic power’s high-frequency and medium-frequency components. Regarding the low-frequency components, XGBoost-Linear is utilized to enable rapid and precise prediction. In contrast with the conventional superposition reconstruction approach, this study employs XGBoost for the reconstruction of the prediction output’s high-frequency, intermediate-frequency, and low-frequency components. Ultimately, the efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated by the empirical operation data from a photovoltaic power station in Hebei Province, China. Relative to integrated and traditional single models, this paper’s model exhibits a markedly enhanced prediction accuracy, thereby offering greater applicational value in scenarios involving short-term photovoltaic power prediction.