Abstract Background Aortic stenosis (AS) is a common primary heart valve disease in the elderly. Low-flow, low-gradient (LFLG) AS is an increasingly important phenotype. Purpose To evaluate the temporal changes in incidence of severe AS phenotypes: paradoxical LFLG, classical LFLG and non-LFLG and explore risk factors that contribute to temporal trends. Methods We analyzed 25,507 consecutive transthoracic echocardiograms over 6½ years between 2013 and 2019 divided into deciles. LFLG-AS was defined as mean transvalvular pressure gradient <40 mmHg and stroke volume index (SVi) <35 mL/m2, aortic valve area (AVA) <1 cm2 or indexed AVA <0.6 cm2/m2, with either normal (paradoxical LFLG) or decreased (<40%; classical LFLG) left ventricular ejection fraction. Trends and associations with patients characteristics and comorbidities were assessed over time in deciles. Results Of 891 cases that fulfilled severe AS criteria, there were 536 cases of LFLG-AS (85 classical and 451 paradoxical LFLG-AS). There was a statistically significant increase in incidence of paradoxical LFLG-AS between each time interval (p<0.0001), while significant reduction in incidence of non-LFLG-AS (p=0.009) that was not seen with classical LFLG-AS (p=0.7) (Figure). More comprehensive echocardiographic assessment of relevant parameters over time assisted with identification of LFLG-AS cases. Intrinsic patient factors such as age and E/e' contributed towards the increasing trend of paradoxical LFLG-AS. There was a rising population aged over 70 years (p=0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, sex, E/e', obesity, atrial fibrillation and heart rate were potential risk factors responsible for temporal trend towards rising paradoxical LFLG-AS incidence. There was also a gradual increase in number of patients with low transvalvular flow rate (<200mL/s) over time (p=0.04). Conclusion The incidence of paradoxical LFLG-AS is rising in a hospital echocardiogram service. The parallel increase in LV filling pressure and age in AS patients suggests the increment in LFLG-AS is related to changes to the LV myocardium. Subtypes of aortic stenosis over time Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None
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