Evaluation of future cervical cancer risk in Japan, based on birth year

Abstract

In 2013, following the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW)'s announced suspension of its vaccine recommendation due to media reports of adverse events, HPV vaccination dropped to almost 0%. Here, we analyzed, by birth year, the cumulative vaccinations for girls up to age 16 (maximum age for public subsidies) and the results of cervical cancer screening in Matsuyama City. The incidence of CIN3 or worse was 0.09% (7/7872) for these unvaccinated generation born between 1991 and 1993, and 0.00% (0/7389) for the vaccination generation born between 1994 and 1996. This study is the first to show the significant reduction in incidence of CIN3+depending on birth year in Japan. We must keep in mind that the unacceptable high risk for cervical cancer has already begun for an entire new generation of unvaccinated girls born in or after 2000. This data encourages a resumption of MHLW's recommendation for HPV vaccination.