Recent epidemiological evidence suggests that pork products may be vehicles for the transmission of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) to humans. The severe morbidity associated with STEC infections highlights the need for research to understand the growth behavior of these bacteria in pork products. Classical predictive models can estimate pathogen growth in sterile meat. However, competition models considering background microbiota reflect a more realistic scenario for raw meat products. The objective of this study was to estimate the growth kinetics of clinically significant STEC (O157, non-O157, and O91), Salmonella, and generic E. coli in raw ground pork using competition primary growth models at temperature abuse (10 and 25 °C) and sublethal temperature (40 °C). A competition model incorporating the No lag Buchanan model was validated using the acceptable prediction zone (APZ) method where >92 % (1498/1620) of the residual errors fell within the APZ (pAPZ > 0.70). The background microbiota (mesophilic aerobic plate counts, APC) inhibited the growth of STEC and Salmonella indicating a simple one-directional competitive interaction between pathogens and the mesophilic microbiota of ground pork. The maximum specific growth rate (μmax) of all the bacterial groups was not significantly different (p > 0.05) based on fat content (5 vs 25 %) except for generic E. coli at 10 °C. E. coli O157 and non-O157 behaved similarly in terms of μmax and maximum population density (MPD). Salmonella showed a similar (p > 0.05) μmax to E. coli O157 and non-O157 at 10 and 40 °C but a significantly higher rate (p < 0.05) at 25 °C. STEC were more prone to be inhibited by APC than Salmonella at 10 and 25 °C. The μmax of O91 was lower (p < 0.05) than other STEC and Salmonella at 10 and 25 °C but similar (p > 0.05) at 40 °C. Generic E. coli showed a two- to five-times higher (p < 0.05) μmax (0.028 ± 0.011 log10 CFU/h) than other bacterial groups (0.006 ± 0.004 to 0.012 ± 0.003 log10 CFU/h) at 10 °C making it a potential indicator bacteria for process control. Industry and regulators can use competitive models to develop appropriate risk assessment and mitigation strategies to improve the microbiological safety of raw pork products.
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