Flood Series Research Articles

基于PDS/GP模型分析汉江流域降雨极值特征

本文选取渭河华县站1951~2011年间年最大日流量以及年最大3日、5日和7日洪量资料作为研究对象，首先引入基于皮尔逊III型分布的时变矩模型分析了洪水序列的趋势性，然后以前期影响雨量和水土保持面积作为解释变量，建立洪水序列分布参数与解释变量的函数关系，结果发现洪水序列都存在明显下降的趋势并且与这两个解释变量是显著相关的。在Pettitt变点检验的基础上，以基于皮尔逊III型分布的时变矩模型推求四组洪水序列时变的概率分布，通过同频率放大得出变点前后两个时期10，50，100，500和1000年一遇的典型洪水过程线。结果发现，四组洪水序列均在1985年发生明显的突变，序列的均值在变点之后有显著的下降，由此造成相同重现期对应设计洪水的量级在变点之后大大减小，设计洪水过程线也明显坦化。 Under changing environments, the flood series of the Weihe River have been influenced by climate change and human activities. In this paper, four flood series including the annual maxima daily discharge, 3-day flood volume, 5-day flood volume and 7-day flood volume of the Weihe River are chosen in the derivation of design flood hydrographs. The time-varying moments model based on Pearson type III distribution is applied to investigate the trends of the flood series, and then both the antecedent precipitation and the water-soil conservation land area are introduced as the explanatory variables of the distribution parameters of the flood series. It is found that all the four flood series present obvious decreasing trends. Both the antecedent precipitation and the water-soil conservation land area are significant covariates of the flood series, and it is mainly the increase in the water-soil conservation land area that has led to the decreasing trend of the flood series. Also by using the time-varying moments model based on Pearson type III distribution, frequency analysis is performed for each time period of flood series with the change-point identified by Pettitt method. The results indicate that all flood series have a downward change-point in 1985. Finally, the design flood hydrographs with the return periods of 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years before and after the change-point are derived. As a result of nonstationarity, the volume of the design flood for a given return period after the change-point is far less than that before the change-point, and the design flood hydrograph also becomes much flatter.

Flood Frequency Analysis of Tel Basin of Mahanadi River System, India Using Annual Maximum and POT Flood Data

Flood frequency analysis indicates the catchment characteristics, water availability and possible extreme hydrological conditions like floods and droughts at various locations of any river system. Such studies have been done in the past using long term annual maximum flood series for early warning, preparedness, mitigation and reduction of any kind of disasters. In the present study, Annual Maximum (AM) flood series and Peak over Threshold (POT) flood series were used to carry out flood frequency analysis for Tel basin of Mahanadi river system, India. The POT values were considered based on (a) commonly used standard practice and (b) flood values damaging the downstream areas and causing disaster in Mahanadi river system, India. To recognize the anomalies in tail behavior of the flood frequency distribution and for selecting appropriate flood frequency distributions, Quantile-Quantile plots (Q-Q plots) were used. The analysis was carried out for flood series data of two gauging stations Kesinga (upstream) and Kantamal (downstream) of Tel basin, Mahanadi river system, India for the years 1972-2009. Fourteen different flood frequency distributions were tried for AM and POT flood series data for 31 years for Kesinga and 38 years for Kantamal. The results obtained using Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution shows better results for AM flood data series with all goodness of fit tests. However, for POT flood data series LogNormal (3P) distribution showed best results followed by GP distributions with all goodness of fit test. The distributions most suitable for POT data sets are same for the distribution being used globally for flood forecasting.

三峡水库入库洪水分析计算研究

三峡水库建成蓄水后，水库周边区间流域产汇流条件发生改变，新形成的入库洪水较天然条件下的坝址洪水具有“洪峰增大，涨水段洪量增大”等特性。本文基于多输入单输出系统模型模拟计算三峡建库前的入库流量系列，定量分析了三峡入库与坝址的年最大洪峰、3、7、15 d洪量之间的关系，整编得到三峡入库流量不连续序列，据此开展三峡入库洪水频率分析，并与坝址计算成果进行比较。结果表明，入库系列与坝址系列的洪峰以及3 d、7 d洪量差异明显，15 d洪量变化不大，入库百年一遇设计洪峰较坝址设计洪峰增大7.89%，入库百年一遇3 d、7 d、15 d洪量较坝址设计洪量分别增大5.49%、2.52%和0.31%，现状条件下采用入库洪水设计值作为三峡水库防洪调度的科学依据更为合理。 The runoff generation and confluence conditions at intervener basin have been changed after the com-pletion of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Since the reservoir inflow has higher peak with larger flood volume in the rising limb compared to the floods at dam site, the original designed flood results at dam site can no longer satisfy the current requirement of operation and management for TGR. In this paper, a multiple inputs and single output linear system model was built to calculate the historical reservoir inflow series and then linear regressions were used to determine the quantitative relations of flood peaks, 3 d, 7 d and 15 d flood volumes between inflow series and flood series at dam site. Subsequently, the simulated inflow series combined with historical floods were obtained and used for inflow frequency analysis. Comparing the inflow frequency analysis results with the existing design flood at dam site, the flood peaks and 3d, 7 d flood volumes are increased significantly, while the change of 15 d flood volume is not evident. It is shown that 100-year designed inflow peak discharge, 3 d, 7 d and 15 d inflow volumes are 7.89%, 5.49%, 2.52% and 0.31% larger than those of designed floods at dam site, respectively. Therefore, it’s more rational to take the designed inflow floods as scientific bases for TGR reservoir operation and management.

黄水沟洪水变化趋势分析

依据黄水沟水文站实测资料建立年最大洪峰流量序列，对黄水沟洪水时空变化特性进行简要分析，采用统计分析法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了黄水沟58年来洪水特征变化趋势。结果表明：黄水沟年最大洪峰流量主要出现在主汛期，且年际变化较大；进入20世纪90年代，年最大洪峰流量偏离平均值幅度较大，从1994 年开始进入大洪水多发期，且大洪水出现频次增加；黄水沟洪水在上世纪80年代末期出现了由少到多的突变，其中1999年以后上升趋势比较显著。 Based on recorded flow data series of the Huangshuigou hydrological station, the annual maximum peak flood discharge series was constructed. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of flood series were briefly analyzed, and the change trend was calculated by using statistical methods and Mann- Kendall test. The results show that the annual maximum peak discharge occurred mainly in the main flood season with large inter-annual variation. Annual maximum peak flow deviated from the average value greatly starting in 1994, and was flood prone period with large floods and increasing frequency during 1990s; In the late 1980s, the flood of Huangshuigou appeared mutation from less to more, and after 2000, the rising trend is significant.

Effect of land surface changes on design flood using Xin'anjiang-Haihe Model

To ascertain characteristics of parameters of watershed runoff and converge and evolution mechanism of runoff changes,effects of watershed surface changes on flooding design have been analyzed. Land surface changes of Weihe watershed using Xin'anjiang-Haihe Model have been studied and the consistency of flood series was corrected using integrated linear weight method.The results indicated that the parameters of the free water storage capacity,the recession constant in thelag and routemethod,the interception and the retention capacity of surface runoff and the outflow initial depth of underground reservoir all increased and the underlying surface had obvious changes after 1980,resulting in the reduction of runoff in the watershed. Runoff depth modeling between Hehe watershed and Wuling watershed for 15 floods before 1980 and 32 floods after 1980 were all more than 80% accurate compared with the records in the datasets,reaching the accuracy of the second-best class in all the records. After the corrected-parameters,the modeling 5th largest flood has reduced 27. 1% errors,the 15 th largest flood reduced 25. 4% errors,and the 30 th largest flood reduced 23. 0% errors,compared with the previous modelings on average. The study provided a scientific basis for constructing the water projects,being safeguard of floods,and satisfying the demand of water supply for people's daily lives and industrial activities.

部分线性矩在陕北地区洪水频率分析中的应用

陕北地区洪水灾害严重且频繁，为了该区水利防洪工程设计建设提供可靠的理论依据，研究部分线性矩在该区洪水频率分析中的应用。本文在介绍部分线性矩原理的基础上，选取陕北交口河、赵石窖、绥德、刘家河、张村驿、志丹及神木7个水文站的洪峰流量资料，将部分线性矩应用于陕北地区洪水序列参数估计中，计算设计洪水值，并拟合洪水频率曲线，利用累积相对偏差平方和评价所得洪水频率曲线对洪峰序列拟合效果，并与普通线性矩法拟合结果进行比较分析。利用部分线性矩和普通线性矩对陕北7个水文站洪水频率进行的分析表明：除了张村译站外，随着删失值F0的增大，设计值的相对偏差值越小，说明部分线性矩法对高尾部经验点据拟合效果更好，提高了设计值估算精度。因此，是一种合理有效的洪水频率分析参数估计方法，可用于陕北地区的洪水频率计算。 The northern Shaanxi province suffers serious and frequent flood disasters. In order to provide an efficient and reliable theoretical basis for design of the flood control project in this area, the Partial L-Moments was used for flood frequency analysis based on introducing the principles of Partial L-Moments. The annual maximum flood series of seven hydrologic stations (Jiaokou, Zhaoshiyao, Sudie, Liujia, Zhangjiashan, Zhidan and Shenmu) were used to estimate the parameters of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution by proposed method. The design floods were calculated and the flood frequency curve was fitted. Then the cumulative of squares error was regarded as an indicator to evaluate the effect and compared with the traditional method of moments. The results show that with censored level F0 value increases, the relative deviation of the design value is smaller. Partial L-Moments can describe the data better in flood analysis and improve the estimation precision of design floods. Partial L-Moments is a reasonable and effective method and can be used for flood frequency analysis in the northern Shaanxi province.

Evaluation of Nonstationarity in Annual Maximum Flood Series and the Associations with Large-scale Climate Patterns and Human Activities

Recent evidences of the impact of regional climate variability, coupled with the intensification of human activities, have led hydrologists to study flood regime without applying the hypothesis of stationarity. In this study, identification of nonstationarity was conducted in the form of both trend and change point in the mean of the annual maximum flood magnitudes, using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test, respectively in Wangkuai reservoir watershed, China. The annual maximum flood series exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the timing of change point was detected in 1979, which was consistent with the construction of large numbers of check dams and small hydraulic structures. A correlation test (Pearson correlation test) between large-scale oceanic-atmospheric patterns (El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Oscillation (AO)) and annual maximum flood peaks was adopted to assess the climatic causes of nonstationary flood series. It was found that NPO, NAO and AO had significant correlations with flood peak, but ENSO and PDO could not explain the variations of flood peak. In the case of human-induced nonstationarity, we proposed 2 new indices to represent the effect of human activities on flood. The new indices were proposed based on the storage capacity and drainage area of the large numbers of check dams and small hydraulic structures which were estimated with no observed data. The identification of nonstationarity for flood series and the climatic and human-induced causes could provide useful information in nonstationary flood frequency analysis.

Impact of climate change on Gironde estuary

Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000].A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the XXIst century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm).The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon,, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary.A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the floodplain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the floodplain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results.

‘A glorious time?’ Some reflections on flooding in the Somerset Levels

Severe floods on the Somerset Levels in winter 2014, and a series of other recent extreme floods across the UK, pose questions about the research needed to unravel the complex nature of flood risk and its implications for society. While much emphasis is placed on research in the natural and engineering sciences to better predict flood risk and develop solutions, this paper discusses what social science, and arts and humanities approaches can contribute to this challenging issue, alongside, and importantly integrated with, the natural sciences. Drawing upon a series of interconnected social science and arts and humanities research projects, in this paper we explore how different knowledges might contribute in dialogue around flood risk; water, senses of place and community in resilience building; the power dynamics in narratives about water; and the value of conceptualising flood heritage ‘from below’ in bringing community voices to the table. We argue that social science, and arts and humanities approaches are needed to explore creative solutions to changing or challenging flood risk. In interdisciplinary configurations in particular, they can generate much needed, creative, transformative narratives which can play key roles in the interplay and negotiation between science, policy and public understanding.

Detection of changes in flood data in Victoria, Australia from 1975 to 2011

Changes in observed streamflow records for 131 catchments from the state of Victoria in southeast Australia are investigated for the 1975–2011 study period. Seven flood indices are considered which are derived from annual maximum, peak-over-threshold (POT) and monthly maximum flood series. Trend analyses are undertaken using Mann–Kendall (MK) and seasonal MK tests along with the bootstrap resampling approach to account for serial correlation. A common trend direction in all months in streamflow data for the majority of the stations has been identified by Van Belle and Hughes’ homogeneity test. Trend analyses results show the percentages of stations exhibiting significant downward trends ranges from 4 to 35% at 5% significance level, which is generally higher than the percentage of stations to occur by chance. Good agreement is found between trends in the AM and POT flood magnitude time series, and separately in the POT flood frequency time series, but not between flood magnitude and their associated frequency series. More stations with significant negative trends have transpired in the AM than in the POT flood data series. Resemblance in the results between both the MK and seasonal MK tests for most of the catchments is also noticed.

Hydrology and flood probability of the monsoon-dominated Chindwin River in northern Myanmar

As the third largest river of Myanmar, the Chindwin River has great importance as a water resource and transport artery. At 113,800 km2 the basin is comparable in size to the Elbe basin in Europe, although with higher rainfall and runoff. During the southwest monsoon high rainfall intensities with spatial and temporal variation causing severe floods are threatening the region. The study aims to analyze the hydrologic aspects of monsoon floods using statistical and frequency analysis. Flood responses vary due to the complex topography and rainfall distribution over the catchment. Time series of annual maximum floods shows no trend of the mean value. The deviation of annual maxima from the respective mean values, however, has increased significantly in recent decades. Flood quantiles are determined for return periods of 2 to 1,000 years using the data covering the period 1966 to 2011. Flood probability analysis shows that the upper and middle parts of the basin have particularly high flood risks. To analyze the change in flood values, the relative differences of flood quantiles in two time phases, 1966–1990 and 1991–2011, with respect to the entire observation period are compared. The expected floods of the latter period are the highest.

Reservoir Flood Routing Considering the Non-Stationarity of Flood Series in North China

Owing to the increasing anthropogenic activities, flood frequency analysis and flood control scheduling of reservoir become more and more complicated because of the non-stationarity of flood series. This paper aims to assess the effects that non-stationary flood series, which is affected by land use change of Daqing River Basin (in North China), has induced on the reservoir flood routing. And the analysis has been carried out in Xidayang Reservoir, which is located in south branch of Daqing River Basin of North China. In this paper, the annual maximum peak discharge series and the annual maximum flood volume (1-day, 3-day and 6-day) series of Xidayang Reservoir were selected to detect their variation using three steps change point diagnosis. Mixed distribution was employed to fit the non-stationary flood series, estimating parameters by simulated annealing algorithm. The results indicate that (1) mixed distribution provided a more appropriate and superior fit than conventional distribution (P3 distribution) to non-stationary flood series, (2) design flood values estimated by mixed distribution reduced by 0.03 %–20.24 % with different return periods compared with the results computed by conventional P3 distribution, and (3) through reservoir flood routing, the maximum water level and maximum discharge with various return periods considering the series’ non-stationarity also showed a decrease by up to 0.56 m and 81.68 % respectively compared with the results regardless of the series’ non-stationarity. These results provide a significant theoretical basis for flood control and water resources management in Daqing River Basin.

Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain

• A representative set of gauging sites with negligible dam regulation was obtained. • Both magnitude and frequency of floods tend to decrease in Spain. • Decreasing trends could be conditioned on a flood-rich period in 1950–1970. • Flood trends were linked to increasing evapotranspiration in last decades. An analysis to detect trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods was conducted in Spain through nine flood indicators. A data set of gauging stations where the effect of dam regulation on flow series is negligible was obtained. Annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold series were extracted in three periods: 1942–2009, 1949–2009 and 1959–2009. A pre-whitening procedure was applied to remove serial correlation and the Mann–Kendall test selected to detect trends. A general decreasing trend in magnitude and frequency of floods was detected in the three periods, with more notable evidence in 1959–2009. An increasing trend in the timing (i.e. towards later floods) was also found in the northwest of Spain. In addition, a study to relate detected flood trends to a set of potential drivers was also conducted. Most such trends in flood series could be explained by corresponding and increasing trends in evapotranspiration that increase water losses in soils and decrease soil moisture content before the occurrence of floods.

Regional assessment of the multi-decadal changes in braided riverscapes following large floods (Example of 12 reaches in South East of France)

Abstract. The district of the France Rhône basin is characterised by several braided reaches, preserved from the widespread disappearing occurred in the 20th century. Even if the overall pattern is evolving through a general river narrowing, some reaches have shown to be still active and have widened. The preliminary results suggest that differences in width pattern could be related to several factors, such as high magnitude and low frequency floods, and geographical position in the catchment which influences bedload delivery conditions and vegetation recruitment related to climate. From an initial set of 53 braided reaches, we selected 12 sites, distributed into four main hydro-geographical regions. Reaches were selected to be representative of the overall study area. We analysed the braiding width pattern and the vegetation pattern dynamic among five observation periods dating from the 1950s to the 2000s. We hypothesised that a comparative analysis of a detailed temporal trajectory (i.e. five dates) of a set of rivers within several hydro-geographical contexts would allow us to better distinguish the relative role of floods (in terms of magnitude and duration) and other controlling factors acting at the regional scale. We showed that active channel width is controlled mainly by Q10 flood and secondarily by bedload availability whereas island pattern is in large part independent of flood series characters. Moreover a clear regional differentiation, constant over time, in terms of riverscape response is observed, mainly opposing south-western and south-eastern reaches. This opposition depends on several concurring factors, i.e. the flood characters, the river activity, the human influence and the climate. Finally, these findings allowed us to highlight those sectors in which the braided pattern could disappear, and those sectors in which the braided pattern is still active, because critical processes responsible of channel dynamic are still present.

Simultaneous/sequential alkaline‐surfactant‐polymer flooding in fractured/non‐fractured carbonate reservoirs

Alkaline‐Surfactant‐Polymer flooding is one of the most novel chemical enhanced oil recovery methods in the petroleum industry. This method has attracted interest due to its remarkable advantages. In this work, a series of ASP floods are conducted on fractured/non‐fractured carbonate rocks. The performance of the tests was investigated by various ASP floods consisting of five types of polymers, two surfactants and one common alkaline. ASP was flooded simultaneously and sequentially in four defined scenarios after water flooding. The results showed that although using hydrolysed polymers increases the recovery factor in the fractured medium, sulfonated polymers increase oil recovery even more due to their capability to increase viscosity in saline solutions. Also, since polymers with a higher molecular weight have a larger hydraulic diameter, they increase oil recovery considerably. Moreover, using cationic surfactant improves the efficiency of ASP flooding due to the serious reduction of interfacial tension (IFT) in comparison to using the anionic one. In addition, according to the four scenarios' results, pushing ASP by polymer is much more effective than pushing it with brine. Also, the difference in final oil recovery between simultaneous and sequential ASP floods is more remarkable when ASP is pushed by brine. Thus, choosing a process completely depends on the slug type and the injected volume.

Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: synoptic climatology and generating mechanisms

New England and Atlantic Canada are characterized by mixed flood regimes that reflect different storm types, antecedent land surface conditions, and flood seasonality. Mixed flood regimes are known to complicate flood risk analyses, yet the synoptic climatology and precipitation mechanisms that generate annual floods in this region have not been described in detail. We analyzed a set of long-term annual flood records at climate-sensitive stream gauges across the region and classified the synoptic climatology of each annual flood, quantitatively describing the precipitation mechanisms, and characterize flood seasonality. We find that annual floods here are dominantly generated by Great Lakes-sourced storms and Coastal lows, known locally as ‘nor’easters.’ Great Lakes storms tend to be associated with lower magnitude annual floods (<75th percentile) and Coastal lows are more clearly associated with higher magnitude events (>75th percentile). Tropical cyclones account for few of all annual floods, including extreme events, despite causing some of the region’s largest and most destructive floods. Late winter/early spring is when the greatest number of annual floods occur region wide, and rainfall is the dominant flood-producing mechanism. Rainfall in combination with snowmelt is also important. Both mechanisms are expected to be impacted by projected regional climate change. We find little evidence for associations between flood-producing synoptic storm types or precipitation mechanisms and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices or time periods, despite upward trends in New England annual flood magnitudes. To more completely investigate such associations, partial duration flood series that include more floods than just the largest of each year, and their associated synoptic climatologies and precipitation mechanisms, should be analyzed.

Applicability of Wakeby distribution in flood frequency analysis: a case study for eastern Australia

Parametric method of flood frequency analysis (FFA) involves fitting of a probability distribution to the observed flood data at the site of interest. When record length at a given site is relatively longer and flood data exhibits skewness, a distribution having more than three parameters is often used in FFA such as log-Pearson type 3 distribution. This paper examines the suitability of a five-parameter Wakeby distribution for the annual maximum flood data in eastern Australia. We adopt a Monte Carlo simulation technique to select an appropriate plotting position formula and to derive a probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test statistic for Wakeby distribution. The Weibull plotting position formula has been found to be the most appropriate for the Wakeby distribution. Regression equations for the PPCC tests statistics associated with the Wakeby distribution for different levels of significance have been derived. Furthermore, a power study to estimate the rejection rate associated with the derived PPCC test statistics has been undertaken. Finally, an application using annual maximum flood series data from 91 catchments in eastern Australia has been presented. Results show that the developed regression equations can be used with a high degree of confidence to test whether the Wakeby distribution fits the annual maximum flood series data at a given station. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other probability distributions and to other study areas. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

L-moments approach for flood frequency analysis of river Okhuwan in Benin-Owena River basin in Nigeria

The flood frequency analysis of River Okhuwan at Ugonoba site in Benin Owena River Basin in Nigeria was carried out using annual maximum stream flow series for 20 years (1989-2008). The objective of the study was to determine the best fit probability distribution model applicable to the site from amongst three selected 3-parameter distribution models namely: Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV), Generalized Logistic distribution (GLO) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) whose parameters were estimated by the method of L-moments. The best fit distribution was selected based on result of four goodness-of-fit tests applied to the candidate distributions. The results indicate that GPA is the best fit distribution model for analyzing the annual maximum flood series at the study site for return period less than or equal to 25 years but for return periods between 25years and 200 years, GLO or GEV is recommended in that order.Keywords: Flood frequency Analysis,L-moments, Probability distribution, Return period, Parameter estimation

In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean Society by Mark Carey (review)

Reviewed by: In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean Society by Mark Carey Nicolas E. Gordon (bio) Mark Carey, In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean Society(Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2010). vii + 273 pp. Bibliography. Index. ISBN: 978-0-19-539606-5. At this point in the early twenty-first century, one would be hard-pressed to pick up a newspaper or turn on a television and not find something related to climate change. Everyone is in in the act, from former vice presidents of the United States (Al Gore) to fossil fuel extraction companies (ExxonMobil). While some political and cultural groups have suggested that climate change is an invention of the political left, the vast majority of scientists now agree that global warming is a scientific reality and have begun to study its effects on humanity. To date, most of this scholarship has been written by social and natural scientists who have focused primarily on predicting the influence of future climate situations. 1 Recently, however, historians working in environmental history, a hybrid field started in the United States during the 1970s that utilizes both the findings of the natural sciences and the historical record to analyze how populations interact with the environment over time, have taken up the study of climate change. 2 These historians, instead of trying to predict future disaster, look to historical and contemporary situations in an effort to gain a better understanding about how climate change has both been influenced by and made an impact on humankind. In his book In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean Society , historian Mark Carey contributes to this growing literature by exploring the relationship between the Peruvian peoples living in the Callejón de Huaylas, and a series of massive floods and avalanches related to glacial melting that devastated the region starting in the mid-twentieth century along the north-central mountain range known as the Cordillera Blanca. He discovers that despite the ever-present danger posed by freshwater [End Page 469] lakes that formed from glacial melting, the residents of the valley resisted expert advice from natural scientist and engineers to relocate and instead the local communities called on these technocrats and the Peruvian government to avert future disasters. Though he finds moments of considerable effort on the part of scientist and politicians to mitigate the effects of climate change in the region, Carey identifies officials from both the government and multinational corporations who, instead of trying to help these victims, used the disaster events to attempt to push these people out of the valley, in a process that he calls “disaster economics” (P. 10). With these mainly indigenous peasant residents out the way, these administrators hoped to put in place a series of hydroelectric power plants that rely on the freshwater lakes to produce electricity for Peru’s major cities. As a result of the interdisciplinary nature of Carey’s study, In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers will find wide appeal in both the scientific and humanistic communities. For historians and other social scientists, Cary’s book provides, among other things, a greater understanding of how indigenous knowledge of the natural world functions in the context of climate change, especially in relation to government and scientific initiatives to combat the situation. Similarly, for natural scientists, Carey’s work offers a chance to reflect on how scientific studies, outside of the lab, function in social and political contexts, particularly where native peoples are involved. Carey opens the first half of the book with the narrative of the devastating glacial lake flood that swept through the town of Huaraz in 1941, killing nearly 5,000 people. Though this event brought national attention to the region and the growing problem of glacial retreat, according to Carey, efforts to mitigate future disasters by the central Peruvian government proceeded haphazardly for the remainder of the 1940s. Not until another flood destroyed the newly constructed Cañón del Pato hydroelectric plant in 1950 did the Peruvian president, Manuel Odría, set out to systematically deal with these issues by creating the Control Commission of Cordillera Blanca Lakes (Lakes Commission). Throughout...

The impacts of the 2011 extreme weather events on holiday choices of Brisbane residents

The summer of 2010–2011 was characterised by extreme weather events in Queensland. In late December 2010 and early January 2011, heavy rainfall produced a series of floods across the state. Three quarters of the state was declared a disaster zone and many thousands of people were evacuated from their homes. Brisbane city experienced the worst floods since 1974. Three cyclones crossed the coast; including the category 5 Cyclone Yasi. These events had a devastating impact on the tourist industry. However, some revenue losses may have been offset by geographical or temporal gains if tourists had changed their destination (destination substitution) or delayed their holiday plans and went to the same intended destination at a later date (temporal substitution). A survey of Brisbane residents was conducted in August 2012 to explore the impacts of the 2010–2011 weather events on their holiday plans and to examine the impacts of destination or temporal substitution. Contrary to expectations, the results indicated the holiday plans of 84 per cent of Brisbane survey respondents were unaffected by the 2010–2011 weather events and there was greater prevalence of temporal substitution than destination substitution.