Flood Frequency Analysis of Tel Basin of Mahanadi River System, India Using Annual Maximum and POT Flood Data

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis indicates the catchment characteristics, water availability and possible extreme hydrological conditions like floods and droughts at various locations of any river system. Such studies have been done in the past using long term annual maximum flood series for early warning, preparedness, mitigation and reduction of any kind of disasters. In the present study, Annual Maximum (AM) flood series and Peak over Threshold (POT) flood series were used to carry out flood frequency analysis for Tel basin of Mahanadi river system, India. The POT values were considered based on (a) commonly used standard practice and (b) flood values damaging the downstream areas and causing disaster in Mahanadi river system, India. To recognize the anomalies in tail behavior of the flood frequency distribution and for selecting appropriate flood frequency distributions, Quantile-Quantile plots (Q-Q plots) were used. The analysis was carried out for flood series data of two gauging stations Kesinga (upstream) and Kantamal (downstream) of Tel basin, Mahanadi river system, India for the years 1972-2009. Fourteen different flood frequency distributions were tried for AM and POT flood series data for 31 years for Kesinga and 38 years for Kantamal. The results obtained using Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution shows better results for AM flood data series with all goodness of fit tests. However, for POT flood data series LogNormal (3P) distribution showed best results followed by GP distributions with all goodness of fit test. The distributions most suitable for POT data sets are same for the distribution being used globally for flood forecasting.