Phenological Sensitivity Research Articles

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Sensitivity of Deciduous Forest Phenology to Environmental Drivers: Implications for Climate Change Impacts Across North America

AbstractProjected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to influence spring and autumn vegetation phenology and hence the length of the growing season in many ecosystems. However, the sensitivity of green‐up and senescence to climate remains uncertain. We analyzed 488 site years of canopy greenness measurements from deciduous forest broadleaf forests across North America. We found that the sensitivity of green‐up to temperature anomalies increases with increasing mean annual temperature, suggesting lower temperature sensitivity as we move to higher latitudes. Furthermore, autumn senescence is most sensitive to moisture deficits at dry sites, with decreasing sensitivity as mean annual precipitation increases. Future projections suggest North American deciduous forests will experience higher sensitivity to temperature in the next 50 years, with larger changes expected in northern regions than in southern regions. Our study highlights how interactions between long‐term and short‐term changes in the climate system influence green‐up and senescence.

An allelic based phenological model to predict phasic development of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

We developed a photoperiod-corrected thermal model that can predict wheat phenology based solely on the combination of photoperiod (Ppd) and vernalisation (Vrn) alleles to identify the phenological suitability of germplasm across the cropping region in southern Australia.More than 200 wheat genotypes that vary in combinations of Ppd and Vrn alleles were grown at 17 locations spanning 11° Latitude, thus providing a wide range in temperature and daylength gradients. The phenological sensitivities of a genotype to varying basic temperature, photoperiod and vernalisation requirement was adjusted via optimisation to minimise the least square difference between the measured and predicted dates of both terminal spike (TS) and flowering (AN).The model predicted dates of TS and AN to within 5 days of the field values. Information was used to identify the alleles required to achieve a wheat ideotype defined in a previous study. The optimum allelic combinations required to target the optimum flowering period for different locations when sown on different dates were also identified. The use of allelic based phenological models has the potential to reduce the costs to breeding programs and accelerate the release of better adapted germplasm to new and changing environments.

Land surface phenology from VEGETATION and PROBA-V data. Assessment over deciduous forests

Land surface phenology has been widely retrieved although no consensus exists on the optimal satellite dataset and the method to extract phenology metrics. This study is the first comprehensive comparison of vegetation variables and methods to retrieve land surface phenology for 1999–2017 time series of Copernicus Global Land products derived from SPOT-VEGETATION and PROBA-V data. We investigated the sensitivity of phenology to (I) the input vegetation variable: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), and fraction of vegetation cover (FCOVER); (II) the smoothing and gap filling method for deriving seasonal trajectories; and (III) the method to extract phenological metrics: thresholds based on a percentile of the annual amplitude of the vegetation variable, autoregressive moving averages, logistic function fitting, and first derivative methods. We validated the derived satellite phenological metrics (start of the season (SoS) and end of the season (EoS)) using available ground observations of Betula pendula, B. alleghaniensis, Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, and Quercus rubra in Europe (Pan-European PEP725 network) and the USA (National Phenology Network, USA-NPN). The threshold-based method applied to the smoothed and gap-filled LAI V2 time series agreed best with the ground phenology, with root mean square errors of ˜10 d and ˜25 d for the timing of SoS and EoS respectively. This research is expected to contribute for the operational retrieval of land surface phenology within the Copernicus Global Land Service.

Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species- level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.

On quantifying the apparent temperature sensitivity of plant phenology.

Many plant phenological events are sensitive to temperature, leading to changes in the seasonal cycle of ecosystem function as the climate warms. To evaluate the current and future implications of temperature changes for plant phenology, researchers commonly use a metric of temperature sensitivity, which quantifies the change in phenology per degree change in temperature. Here, we examine the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and highlight conditions under which the widely used days-per-degree sensitivity approach is subject to methodological issues that can generate misleading results. We identify several factors, in particular the length of the period over which temperature is integrated, and changes in the statistical characteristics of the integrated temperature, that can affect the estimated apparent sensitivity to temperature. We show how the resulting artifacts can lead to spurious differences in apparent temperature sensitivity and artificial spatial gradients. Such issues are rarely considered in analyses of the temperature sensitivity of phenology. Given the issues identified, we advocate for process-oriented modelling approaches, informed by observations and with fully characterised uncertainties, as a more robust alternative to the simple days-per-degree temperature sensitivity metric. We also suggest approaches to minimise and assess spurious influences in the days-per-degree metric.

Invasion and drought alter phenological sensitivity and synergistically lower ecosystem production.

Climate change and shifting species composition have influenced ecosystem-scale phenology worldwide. For instance, invasive plant species have greater vegetation phenological sensitivity to climate change than native plant species in some regions, and hence invasion could modify how ecosystem carbon gain responds to increased drought frequencies expected with climate change. Results from a 4-yr drought experiment show that invasion reduced ecosystem potential for carbon gain via increased sensitivity to reduced rainfall. Using canopy greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) as a proxy for potential ecosystem carbon gain, we show that areas invaded by herbaceous species had up to a 70% reduction in maximum NDVI under severe drought conditions as compared to areas dominated by native shrubs. Phenological differences between herbaceous- and shrub-dominated vegetation contributed to this reduction in potential ecosystem carbon gain because invaded areas had delayed green-up, especially under drought conditions, and shrub senescence was accelerated by drought. Hence, invasion by herbaceous species and increased drought frequencies are likely to act synergistically to reduce ecosystem capacity for carbon gain in this system. Our findings suggest that predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change could be improved by projecting of the spread of invasive species and accounting for phenological variation between native and invading species.

Phenological responses to climate change in communities of plants species with contrasting functional strategies

Understanding why co-occurring plant species show differential phenological sensitivities to climate fluctuations, and more specifically to the joint variation in temperature and precipitation, is critical to make accurate predictions on how climate change could alter community dynamics and ecosystem functioning. However, the role that some relevant functional traits involved in resource uptake and/or stress tolerance could play on these inter-specific differences in phenological sensitivity remains largely unknown. In this study we evaluated experimentally how five co-occurring herbaceous species with contrasting functional strategies respond to current and ongoing climatic scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water availability and both abiotic changes acting interactively. To decompose the direct effect of climate change and the indirect effect of neighbors on plant performance and reproductive phenology, each of the five species was exposed to a density gradient of competitor species. Although the study species were more sensitive to changes in temperature than in water availability, the combined effect of both abiotic cues triggered very heterogeneous responses. Species with higher SLA values were particularly sensitive to climate change, delaying their reproduction and lengthening their flowering period under warmer scenarios while maintaining a high plant growth rate. In contrast, the species with the lowest SLA values exhibited less phenological variability to climate alterations, but they were more strongly affected by neighbor density compared to species with opposite trait values. These species-specific responses to climatic shifts altered the synchrony of phenological events at the community level. The most important changes appeared under the two scenarios of increased temperature, where 4 out of 5 species overlapped their flowering periods. Our findings indicate that the ongoing scenarios of increasing temperature and aridity could disrupt the phenological asynchrony within communities, and highlight the necessity of considering the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation to obtain an overall picture of climate change predictions on plant phenology and population dynamics.

Spatial sampling inconsistency leads to differences in phenological sensitivity to warming between natural and experiment sites

Spatial sampling inconsistency leads to differences in phenological sensitivity to warming between natural and experiment sites

Daylength helps temperate deciduous trees to leaf-out at the optimal time.

Global warming has led to substantially earlier spring leaf-out in temperate-zone deciduous trees. The interactive effects of temperature and daylength underlying this warming response remain unclear. However, they need to be accurately represented by earth system models to improve projections of the carbon and energy balances of temperate forests and the associated feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We studied the control of leaf-out by daylength and temperature using data from six tree species across 2,377 European phenological network (www.pep725.eu), each with at least 30years of observations. We found that, in addition to and independent of the known effect of chilling, daylength correlates negatively with the heat requirement for leaf-out in all studied species. In warm springs when leaf-out is early, days are short and the heat requirement is higher than in an average spring, which mitigates the warming-induced advancement of leaf-out and protects the tree against precocious leaf-out and the associated risks of late frosts. In contrast, longer-than-average daylength (in cold springs when leaf-out is late) reduces the heat requirement for leaf-out, ensuring that trees do not leaf-out too late and miss out on large amounts of solar energy. These results provide the first large-scale empirical evidence of a widespread daylength effect on the temperature sensitivity of leaf-out phenology in temperate deciduous trees.

Frost controls spring phenology of juvenile Smith fir along elevational gradients on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Impacts of climatic means on spring phenology are well documented, whereas the role of climatic variance, such as occurrence of spring frosts, has long been neglected. A large elevational gradient of forests on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau provides an ideal platform to explore correlates of spring phenology and environmental factors. We tested the hypothesis that spring frost was a major factor regulating the timing of bud-leaf phenology by combining 5years of in situ phenological observations of Abies georgei var. smithii with concurrent air temperature data along two altitudinal gradients. Mean lapse rate for the onset of bud swelling and leaf unfolding was 3.1 ± 0.5days/100m and 3.0 ± 0.6days/100m, respectively. Random forest analysis and conditional inference trees revealed that the frequency of freezing events was a critical factor in determining the timing of bud swelling, independent of topographic differences, varying accumulation of chilling days, and degree-days. In contrast, the onset of leaf unfolding was primarily controlled by the bud swelling onset. Thus, the timing of bud swelling and leaf unfolding appear to be controlled directly and indirectly, respectively, by spring frost. Using space-for-time substitution, the frequency of spring freezing events decreased by 7.1days with 1°C of warming. This study provides evidence for impacts of late spring frosts on spring phenology, which have been underappreciated in research on phenological sensitivity to climate but should be included in phenology models. Fewer spring freezing events with warming have important implications for the upward migration of alpine forests and treelines.

Spring- and fall-flowering species show diverging phenological responses to climate in the Southeast USA

Plant phenological shifts (e.g., earlier flowering dates) are known consequences of climate change that may alter ecosystem functioning, productivity, and ecological interactions across trophic levels. Temperate, subalpine, and alpine regions have largely experienced advancement of spring phenology with climate warming, but the effects of climate change in warm, humid regions and on autumn phenology are less well understood. In this study, nearly 10,000 digitized herbarium specimen records were used to examine the phenological sensitivities of fall- and spring-flowering asteraceous plants to temperature and precipitation in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain. Climate data reveal warming trends in this already warm climate, and spring- and fall-flowering species responded differently to this change. Spring-flowering species flowered earlier at a rate of 1.8–2.3 days per 1 °C increase in spring temperature, showing remarkable congruence with studies of northern temperate species. Fall-flowering species flowered slightly earlier with warmer spring temperatures, but flowering was significantly later with warmer summer temperatures at a rate of 0.8–1.2 days per 1 °C. Spring-flowering species exhibited slightly later flowering times with increased spring precipitation. Fall phenology was less clearly influenced by precipitation. These results suggest that even warm, humid regions may experience phenological shifts and thus be susceptible to potentially detrimental effects such as plant-pollinator asynchrony.

Plant phenological sensitivity to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau and relative to other areas of the world

AbstractGlobal warming and changes in precipitation are altering the phenology of plants that significantly impact the functioning and services of ecosystems. Although a number of studies have addressed responses of plant phenology to warming and altered precipitation individually, their interactions can alter plant phenology differently than either does independently. To explore how the interactions between global change drivers alter alpine ecosystems, we conducted a factorial experiment manipulating warming (ambient and +2°C) and altered precipitation (50% decrease, control, and 50% increase) simultaneously in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Over two years, we monitored plant phenological events, leaf‐out day and first flowering day, for 11 common plant species that account for 74.4% of the total above biomass. Surprisingly, there was no interaction between warming and changes in precipitation on community plant phenology, but warming advanced leaf‐out and first flowering day by 7.10 and 9.79 d, respectively. Unlike the community response, plant functional groups had a variety of direct and interactive responses to the experimental climate drivers. While the phenology of legumes was most influenced by temperature, temperature and precipitation interacted to alter the phenology of grasses and forbs. To explore how plant phenological sensitivity on the Tibetan Plateau is compared with other meadow ecosystems, we combined our dataset with a global plant phenology dataset. Interestingly, the phenological sensitivity of leaf‐out day and first flowering day on the Tibetan Plateau is 7.3 and 37.8 times greater than global phenological sensitivity, respectively. This result highlights that a meta‐analysis of global phenological sensitivity may significantly underestimate change in some regions—even regions as large as the Tibetan Plateau. Together, our results suggest that the Tibetan Plateau may experience rapid change as temperatures warm and that these changes will likely be more rapid than in other regions of the world. Further, our study highlights that if we are to make accurate predictions of how plant phenology may change with warming, we need to understand the specific environmental cues that drive phenological responses across different areas.

Drifting Phenologies Cause Reduced Seasonality of Butterflies in Response to Increasing Temperatures.

Climate change has caused many ecological changes around the world. Altered phenology is among the most commonly observed effects of climate change, and the list of species interactions affected by altered phenology is growing. Although many studies on altered phenology focus on single species or on pairwise species interactions, most ecological communities are comprised of numerous, ecologically similar species within trophic groups. Using a 12-year butterfly monitoring citizen science data set, we aimed to assess the degree to which butterfly communities may be changing over time. Specifically, we wanted to assess the degree to which phenological sensitivities to temperature could affect temporal overlap among species within communities, independent of changes in abundance, species richness, and evenness. We found that warming winter temperatures may be associated with some butterfly species making use of the coldest months of the year to fly as adults, thus changing temporal co-occurrence with other butterfly species. Our results suggest that changing temperatures could cause immediate restructuring of communities without requiring changes in overall abundance or diversity. Such changes could have fitness consequences for individuals within trophic levels by altering competition for resources, as well as indirect effects mediated by species interactions across trophic levels.

Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States.

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

The strength of flowering–temperature relationship and preseason length affect temperature sensitivity of first flowering date across space

Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology, defined as the shift of phenophase with per unit change of preseason temperature, has been widely used to quantify phenological response to climate change. The spatial variation in ST of spring phenology has been well studied for several woody plants, but how to explain it became a challenge. Several hypotheses to explain the spatial variation in ST have been proposed, but studies examining all potential factors together were very limited. In this study, using first flowering date (FFD) data for five widespread woody plants at 47 stations in China and the other five species at 421 stations in central Europe during 1964–2014, we calculated ST by using the Sen's slope of FFD on mean preseason temperature for each species at each station. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was applied to examining whether ST followed the geographical (latitudinal, longitudinal, or vertical) gradients. At last, four potential influencing factors of ST were tested by Spearman partial correlation analysis. We found that ST of FFD was higher at lower latitude for most species in China. However, in central Europe, the variation of ST did not follow the geographical gradient for most species. Only one species (Fraxinus excelsior) showed a latitudinal gradient, and one (Betula pendula) showed a longitudinal gradient. For most species in both regions, the strength of FFD–temperature relationship and the preseason length could account for the spatial variation of ST to a more considerable extent compared to preseason temperature variance and chilling conditions. Our results suggest that we need to consider the effects of multiple factors on phenological response to temperature when simulating future phenological change.

Impacts of recent climate extremes on spring phenology in arid-mountain ecosystems in China

Phenological responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate extremes are of growing concern due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events associated with climate change which will in turn affect vegetation seasonality more than gradual changes. However, studies are rare in arid mountain regions where plant development is commonly regulated by both temperature and precipitation. To better understand how arid mountain (AM) ecosystems may respond to climate anomalies, we identified recent extreme climatic events (including intense warming, severe drought, and excessive wetness), and analyzed spring onset of vegetation growth in the Qilian Mountains of northwestern China. Phenological sensitivity was assessed from satellite-based data as departures from maps displaying mean onsets of growth for years 1983–2013. Our results revealed remarkable shifts in the start date of the growing season (SOS) under climate extremes, with different responses depending on ecosystem and altitude. Recent warming induced a general advancement of SOS. Higher spring temperatures enhanced the accumulation of heat needed for budburst and leaf expansion; elevated winter temperatures reduced the chilling days before bud dormancy release, significantly decreasing the risk of freezing injury in AM plants. Changes in SOS observed in this study suggested that AM plants may have relatively low chilling requirement for dormancy release. Contrary to warming, a drought resulted in a widespread delay in spring phenology, with sensitivity peaking over a shrubland ecosystem at medium elevations. This result demonstrated that subalpine shrubs were most susceptible of the studied ecosystems to hydroclimatic extremes, highlighting the great importance in this biome of concerns. Moreover, during the year when multiple extreme events (e.g. intense warming and heavy rainfall) coincided, their combined influence appeared to arise from synergistic mechanisms that are in urgent need of further research.

Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders.

Many organisms adjust their reproductive phenology in response to climate change, but phenological sensitivity to temperature may vary between species. For example, resident and migratory birds have vastly different annual cycles, which can cause differential temperature sensitivity at the breeding grounds, and may affect competitive dynamics. Currently, however, adjustment to climate change in resident and migratory birds have been studied separately or at relatively small geographical scales with varying time series durations and methodologies. Here, we studied differential effects of temperature on resident and migratory birds using the mean egg laying initiation dates from 10 European nest box schemes between 1991 and 2015 that had data on at least one resident tit species and at least one migratory flycatcher species. We found that both tits and flycatchers advanced laying in response to spring warming, but resident tit populations advanced more strongly in relation to temperature increases than migratory flycatchers. These different temperature responses have already led to a divergence in laying dates between tits and flycatchers of on average 0.94days per decade over the current study period. Interestingly, this divergence was stronger at lower latitudes where the interval between tit and flycatcher phenology is smaller and winter conditions can be considered more favorable for resident birds. This could indicate that phenological adjustment to climate change by flycatchers is increasingly hampered by competition with resident species. Indeed, we found that tit laying date had an additional effect on flycatcher laying date after controlling for temperature, and this effect was strongest in areas with the shortest interval between both species groups. Combined, our results suggest that the differential effect of climate change on species groups with overlapping breeding ecology affects the phenological interval between them, potentially affecting interspecific interactions.

Phenological Sensitivity of Two Maize Cultivars to Trinexapac-Ethyl

ABSTRACT: In Brazilian agriculture there are few reports on trinexapac-ethyl (TE) effects on maize plant lodging management. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of sequential application of TE sprayed on different plant growth stages of maize using the simple hybrid P30F53HR and the variety SCS 154 Fortuna. Experiments were carried out in a greenhouse in the 2013 and 2014 harvests. Plants were grown singly in 5L pots filled with 75% soil and 25% substrate. The experimental design was a randomized complete block with four replications. The following treatments were performed: (T1) control (no application of growth retardant); (T2) application at V2 (100 g a.i. ha-1); (T3) sequential application of 100 g a.i. ha-1 at V2 plus V3; (T4) sequential application of 100 g a.i. ha-1 at V2+V3+V4; (T5) single application of 300 g a.i. ha-1 at V4; (T6) sequential application of 100 g a.i. ha-1 at V2+V3+V4+V5; (T7) sequential application of 100 g a.i. ha-1 at V2+V3+V4+V5+V6 and (T8) sequential application of 100 g a.i. ha-1 at V2+V3+V4+V5+V6+V7. The some morphological characteristics of the two maize genotypes changed in response to TE treatment. From stage V4 onwards, maize plant height showed signs of sensitivity to the growth retardant. Plants in T8 (TE applied over V2 to V7) were more sensitive to TE with over 45% reduction in plant height compared with application T7 (applied from V2 to V6). This response was similar in both maize genotypes, thus indicating that plants are highly sensitive to TE after the V6 stage.

Phenology of Tempranillo and Cabernet-Sauvignon varieties cultivated in the Ribera del Duero DO: observed variability and predictions under climate change scenarios

Aim: This research examined relationships between grapevine phenology and climate in the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain). The observed varieties included Tempranillo, the main variety planted in the region, and Cabernet-Sauvignon.Methods and Results: Phenological events for stages C (budbreak), I (bloom), M (véraison) and N (maturity) were analyzed for 2004-2015. Dormant period chilling and late winter heating requirements to initiate growth were evaluated and accumulated temperature (growing degree days-GDD) prior to each phenological event and in between events were examined for the role they play in influencing growth timing. The results were then used to examine future phenological changes due to climate change using eight models integrated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – for 2030, 2050, and 2070. Accumulated temperatures after March 20th become important for initiating phenology and are strongly correlated to all growth events. The influence of water availability between budbreak and bloom and between bloom and véraison on phenological timing was also confirmed.Conclusions: The projections showed that for the RCP4.5 emission scenario, budbreak is predicted earlier by approximately 2 days for 2030, 3 days for 2050 and 5 days for 2070, while bloom is predicted to be 3 to 8 days earlier and véraison 6 to 19 days earlier for the same time periods. For the RCP8.5 emission scenario, budbreak is modeled to take place about 3 days, 5 days and 9 days earlier, respectively for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Bloom is predicted to occur about 5, 10 and 16 days earlier; véraison is predicted earlier by 10 days for 2030, 19 days for 2050, and 28 days for 2070. Maturity and the timing of harvest could be up to 23 days earlier under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and up to 35 days earlier under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Compared to Cabernet-Sauvignon, Tempranillo exhibited greater phenological sensitivity to temperature changes in the observed time period that is likely to continue into the future with greater changes to earlier growth events projected. This sensitivity could be problematic for the region due to the variety’s historic importance and points to the need to examine adaptive measures that can help growers to respond to projected changes in climate.Significance and impact of the study: The projected climate changes in the future indicate the potential for significant changes in the phenology of Tempranillo in the Ribera del Duero DO, Spain. Given that this variety has the largest contribution and importance in this region, these changes could have impacts on wine quality, indicating the need of establishing strategies to reduce or mitigate the impact from future changes in climate.