Abstract
Plant phenological shifts (e.g., earlier flowering dates) are known consequences of climate change that may alter ecosystem functioning, productivity, and ecological interactions across trophic levels. Temperate, subalpine, and alpine regions have largely experienced advancement of spring phenology with climate warming, but the effects of climate change in warm, humid regions and on autumn phenology are less well understood. In this study, nearly 10,000 digitized herbarium specimen records were used to examine the phenological sensitivities of fall- and spring-flowering asteraceous plants to temperature and precipitation in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain. Climate data reveal warming trends in this already warm climate, and spring- and fall-flowering species responded differently to this change. Spring-flowering species flowered earlier at a rate of 1.8–2.3 days per 1 °C increase in spring temperature, showing remarkable congruence with studies of northern temperate species. Fall-flowering species flowered slightly earlier with warmer spring temperatures, but flowering was significantly later with warmer summer temperatures at a rate of 0.8–1.2 days per 1 °C. Spring-flowering species exhibited slightly later flowering times with increased spring precipitation. Fall phenology was less clearly influenced by precipitation. These results suggest that even warm, humid regions may experience phenological shifts and thus be susceptible to potentially detrimental effects such as plant-pollinator asynchrony.
Highlights
Changes in the timing of species’ life history events— Bphenological shifts^—are closely linked to changes in climate and can produce cascading effects across ecosystems, altering ecosystem functioning (Parmesan 2006; Calinger et al 2013), productivity (Richardson et al 2010), and ecological interactions such as those between plants and pollinators (Kharouba and Vellend 2015; Forrest 2015) or plants and migratory birds (Both et al 2006)
This study examines plant phenological sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain (SECP; Fig. 1)
Contrary to some previous predictions (e.g., Pau et al 2011), plant species in the warm temperate climate of the SECP responded to temperature in ways similar to those in cold temperate climates
Summary
Changes in the timing of species’ life history events— Bphenological shifts^—are closely linked to changes in climate and can produce cascading effects across ecosystems, altering ecosystem functioning (Parmesan 2006; Calinger et al 2013), productivity (Richardson et al 2010), and ecological interactions such as those between plants and pollinators (Kharouba and Vellend 2015; Forrest 2015) or plants and migratory birds (Both et al 2006). Despite myriad studies since the turn of the century investigating the effects of climate change on plant phenology (i.e., Bphenological sensitivity^) using observational data The phenological sensitivity of plants to climate change in warm, humid temperate to subtropical regions, as well as the effects of climate change on autumn phenology, remain poorly understood (Pau et al 2011; Willis et al 2017; but see Von Holle et al 2010; Park and Schwartz 2015; Gallinat et al 2015). Our understanding of these relationships has largely relied upon studies in temperate, boreal, alpine, or subalpine climates such as the Northeastern USA and north-central Europe (Pau et al 2011; Willis et al 2017), though some. This study examines plant phenological sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain (SECP; Fig. 1)
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