Abstract

AbstractProjected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to influence spring and autumn vegetation phenology and hence the length of the growing season in many ecosystems. However, the sensitivity of green‐up and senescence to climate remains uncertain. We analyzed 488 site years of canopy greenness measurements from deciduous forest broadleaf forests across North America. We found that the sensitivity of green‐up to temperature anomalies increases with increasing mean annual temperature, suggesting lower temperature sensitivity as we move to higher latitudes. Furthermore, autumn senescence is most sensitive to moisture deficits at dry sites, with decreasing sensitivity as mean annual precipitation increases. Future projections suggest North American deciduous forests will experience higher sensitivity to temperature in the next 50 years, with larger changes expected in northern regions than in southern regions. Our study highlights how interactions between long‐term and short‐term changes in the climate system influence green‐up and senescence.

Highlights

  • Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change (Cleland et al 2007, Körner and Basler 2010),and strongly influences terrestrial nutrient and carbon cycles (Estiarte and Peñuelas 2015)

  • We found that the sensitivity of green-up to temperature anomalies increases with increasing mean annual temperature, suggesting lower temperature sensitivity as we move to higher latitudes

  • Among analyses employing a range of model structures and metrics, larger temperature sensitivities have been reported in coastal areas, warmer regions and lower latitudes (Zohner et al 2016, Seyednasrollah et al 2018, Wang et al 2015). Such studies need to account for interactions between the main weather and climate drivers of phenology, as well as uncertainty caused by modeling simplifications

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Summary

Introduction

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change (Cleland et al 2007, Körner and Basler 2010),and strongly influences terrestrial nutrient and carbon cycles (Estiarte and Peñuelas 2015). Photoperiod and light intensity are often described as prerequisites for budburst (Basler and Körner 2012, Lopez et al 2008), and long term trends toward earlier green-up has been widely documented as a response to climate warming (Badeck et al 2004). Among analyses employing a range of model structures and metrics, larger temperature sensitivities have been reported in coastal areas, warmer regions and lower latitudes (Zohner et al 2016, Seyednasrollah et al 2018, Wang et al 2015). Such studies need to account for interactions between the main weather and climate drivers of phenology, as well as uncertainty caused by modeling simplifications

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