Self-fulfilling Research Articles

Great expectations: minor differences in initial instructions have a major impact on visual search in the absence of feedback

Professions such as radiology and aviation security screening that rely on visual search—the act of looking for targets among distractors—often cannot provide operators immediate feedback, which can create situations where performance may be largely driven by the searchers’ own expectations. For example, if searchers do not expect relatively hard-to-spot targets to be present in a given search, they may find easy-to-spot targets but systematically quit searching before finding more difficult ones. Without feedback, searchers can create self-fulfilling prophecies where they incorrectly reinforce initial biases (e.g., first assuming and then, perhaps wrongly, concluding hard-to-spot targets are rare). In the current study, two groups of searchers completed an identical visual search task but with just a single difference in their initial task instructions before the experiment started; those in the “high-expectation” condition were told that each trial could have one or two targets present (i.e., correctly implying no target-absent trials) and those in the “low-expectation” condition were told that each trial would have up to two targets (i.e., incorrectly implying there could be target-absent trials). Compared to the high-expectation group, the low-expectation group had a lower hit rate, lower false alarm rate and quit trials more quickly, consistent with a lower quitting threshold (i.e., performing less exhaustive searches) and a potentially higher target-present decision criterion. The expectation effect was present from the start and remained across the experiment—despite exposure to the same true distribution of targets, the groups’ performances remained divergent, primarily driven by the different subjective experiences caused by each groups’ self-fulfilling prophecies. The effects were limited to the single-targets trials, which provides insights into the mechanisms affected by the initial expectations set by the instructions. In sum, initial expectations can have dramatic influences—searchers who do not expect to find a target, are less likely to find a target as they are more likely to quit searching earlier.

Subtle discrimination: do stereotypes among teachers trigger bias in their expectations and widen ethnic achievement gaps?

Ethnic and racial disparities in educational outcomes, such as test scores, are a core issue of educational research. While the role of student and family factors in the formation of such disparities is well established, existing studies fail to draw a similarly clear picture of how teachers contribute to ethnic and racial achievement gaps. In contrast to previous studies, which focussed on the consequences of rather blatant forms of discrimination, such as in teachers’ grading practices, this study investigates rather subtle processes that might result in discrimination of ethnic and racial minority students. In particular, I address stereotypes among teachers and analyse if they induce bias in their achievement expectations for ethnic minority school beginners. Additionally, I analyse if such bias results in a self-fulfilling prophecy and contributes to ethnic achievement gaps at the end of first grade. Multilevel regressions applied to a sample of 1007 children and 64 teachers in German primary schools reveal that different teachers internalize distinct stereotypes regarding ethnic achievement gaps and the achievement-related attributes of ethnic minority students. I also find that teachers with more negative stereotypes expect lower mathematics and reading achievements for ethnic minority students at the beginning of first grade. However, although I replicate the finding that inaccurate teacher expectations result in a self-fulfilling prophecy, I find no statistically significant effects of teacher stereotypes on ethnic differences in the development of students’ reading and mathematical skills throughout first grade.

ASEAN and the EU amidst COVID-19: overcoming the self-fulfilling prophecy of realism.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is one of the greatest challenges of our lifetime. Quite appropriately, the pandemic has been declared a non-traditional security (NTS) threat in many countries in Europe and Asia. Beyond its detrimental effect on public health, COVID-19 is testing the international resolve to cooperate and represents a particularly tricky challenge to regionalism. Due to the nature of pandemics, regional pandemic management is imperative. However, the two most successful regional organisations, the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), have not been able to match the resolve of their individual member states, and there is a substantial gap between timely and robust national pandemic management and inadequacy at the regional level. This is a paradox that merits further investigation. To what extent and why diverged early national and early regional responses to COVID-19? This article identifies a causal relationship between robust national pandemic management as a result of early securitisation and ensuing paralysis on regional level, a process which I call the ‘selffulfilling prophecy of realism’—a vicious cycle of national self-help responses paralysing regional cooperation. This article contributes early to the impact of COVID-19 on regionalism by analysing EU and ASEAN pandemic management efforts, investigating what has hindered or facilitated successful regional cooperation and identifying room for meaningful interregionalism.

"Quem Sabe de Mim Sou Eu": práticas culturais e comunicacionais como instrumentos pedagógicos junto a jovens em vulnerabilidade

O presente artigo propõe uma reflexão teórico-metodológica a partir da experiência acumulada no âmbito de um projeto universitário de caráter extensionista que, ao longo dos últimos oito anos, promove atividades voltadas para jovens em situação de vulnerabilidade social. Ao apresentar as ferramentas usadas e refletir sobre as questões e desafios enfrentados, buscamos desenvolver uma metodologia que seja capaz de acessar esses jovens. Nossa meta é explicitar como é possível articular práticas culturais e ferramentas comunicacionais, capazes de contribuir para um processo de subjetivação emancipador, com a finalidade de desarmar “profecias auto realizáveis”, comuns às trajetórias desses jovens. Acionamos, ao longo de nossa atuação, modos potentes de trazer para o plano do visível a experiência, a memória, a corporalidade e a fala como possibilidades de expressão das subjetividades singulares desses jovens, ainda assim constantemente atravessadas por relações de poder estruturais, violentas e hierárquicas.

Abstract P454: Do Not Resuscitate Orders in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients. Impact on Mortality

Introduction/background: Do not resuscitate (DNR) orders have been associated with higher mortality in hospitalized patients which the question if they these patients are victims of the self-fulfilling prophecy; that the odds of their survival is made worse by withholding aggressive treatment. In addition, previous reports show that racial and ethnic minorities tend to opt for more aggressive and lifesaving procedures as compared to Whites. Methods: We analyzed the data from Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2005-2014) for all intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. DNR code status was identified using the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Baseline characteristics, discharge outcomes (mortality, length of stay) were compared between the two groups. DNR code status was compared between different racial groups. Results: Of the 884379 patients with ICH, 81968 (9.26%%) had DNR order. ICH patients with DNR order had higher proportion of females (55.1% versus 49.1%, P <.0001) and were older (74.2 years versus 66 years, P <.0001) compared to ICH patients without DNR. The in-hospital mortality was also higher (53.4% versus 23.3%, p≤.0001) among patients with DNR both univariate and multivariate analysis (OR = 3.24 (3.07 -3.41), p<.0001) after adjusting for potential confounders. Whites have a higher rate (11.5% versus 8.08%) of DNR order as compared to other racial/ethnic groups Conclusions: While there may be other explanations at play, the higher mortality and shorter LOS suggest that early DNR orders do lead to the self-fulfilling prophecy. The lower proportion of DNR orders among minorities suggest a sociocultural aspect in accepting the concept of DNR. These two facts raise concerns about what the real vs perceived meaning of DNR orders.

Abstract P399: Do Not Resuscitate Orders in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients. Impact on Mortality

Introduction/background: Do not resuscitate (DNR) orders have been associated with higher mortality in hospitalized patients which the question if they these patients are victims of the self-fulfilling prophecy; that the odds of their survival is made worse by withholding aggressive treatment. In addition, previous reports show that racial and ethnic minorities tend to opt for more aggressive and lifesaving procedures as compared to Whites. Methods: We analyzed the data from Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2005-2014) for all subarachnoid hemorrhage (ICH) patients. DNR code status was identified using the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Baseline characteristics, discharge outcomes (mortality, length of stay) were compared between the two groups. DNR code status was compared between different racial groups. Results: Of the 325923 patients with SAH, 20127 (6.17%%) had DNR order. SAH patients with DNR order had higher proportion of females (61.7% versus 59.4%, P=0.0048) and were older (70.9 years versus 58.4 years, P <.0001) compared to SAH patients without DNR. The in-hospital mortality was also higher (66.4% versus 22.4%, p≤.0001) among patients with DNR both univariate and multivariate analysis (OR = 5.05 (4.58 -5.56), p<.0001) after adjusting for potential confounders. Whites have a higher rate (7.59% versus 5.84%, P <.0001) of DNR order as compared to other racial/ethnic groups Conclusions: While there may be other explanations at play, the higher mortality and shorter LOS suggest that early DNR orders do lead to the self-fulfilling prophecy. The lower proportion of DNR orders among minorities suggest a sociocultural aspect in accepting the concept of DNR. These two facts raise concerns about what the real vs perceived meaning of DNR orders.

Editors' Note: Prediction of Regaining Consciousness Despite an Early Epileptiform EEG After Cardiac Arrest

Neuroprognostication after cardiac arrest often remains reliant on neurophysiologic and serologic testing. To better prognosticate outcomes among patients with early epileptiform activity on EEG, Dr. Barbella et al. modeled various EEG predictors of favorable outcome using updated neurophysiologic criteria. Early absence of epileptiform activity, continuous background amplitude with reactivity, and later stimulus-induced rhythmic periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) strongly predicted favorable long-term outcomes in these patients after cardiac arrest (area under the curve 0.96, 95% CI 0.91–1.00). In a reader response, Dr. Sethi highlights that SIRPIDs may indicate brain reactivity, but they are not associated with cerebral hyperperfusion (as in the case of seizures). Both the investigators and Dr. Sethi agree that later SIRPIDs need not be treated aggressively in these patients. This study adds considerably to the neuroprognostication literature by showing early epileptiform activity may not always be a poor prognostic marker after cardiac arrest. Even in the presence of epileptiform activity, some features indicate a reasonable probability of functional recovery. As the investigators note in their methods—intensive care withdrawal was considered in patients with treatment-resistant myoclonus or status epilepticus, absent somatosensory-evoked potentials, incomplete return of brainstem reflexes, and elevated neuron specific enolase levels. Unsurprisingly, each of these findings strongly predicted poor outcomes. Therefore, the high sensitivity and specificity of the NEC2RAS score for predicting poor outcome does not disentangle it from the possibility of it contributing to the self-fulfilling prophecy. Neuroprognostication after cardiac arrest often remains reliant on neurophysiologic and serologic testing. To better prognosticate outcomes among patients with early epileptiform activity on EEG, Dr. Barbella et al. modeled various EEG predictors of favorable outcome using updated neurophysiologic criteria. Early absence of epileptiform activity, continuous background amplitude with reactivity, and later stimulus-induced rhythmic periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) strongly predicted favorable long-term outcomes in these patients after cardiac arrest (area under the curve 0.96, 95% CI 0.91–1.00). In a reader response, Dr. Sethi highlights that SIRPIDs may indicate brain reactivity, but they are not associated with cerebral hyperperfusion (as in the case of seizures). Both the investigators and Dr. Sethi agree that later SIRPIDs need not be treated aggressively in these patients. This study adds considerably to the neuroprognostication literature by showing early epileptiform activity may not always be a poor prognostic marker after cardiac arrest. Even in the presence of epileptiform activity, some features indicate a reasonable probability of functional recovery. As the investigators note in their methods—intensive care withdrawal was considered in patients with treatment-resistant myoclonus or status epilepticus, absent somatosensory-evoked potentials, incomplete return of brainstem reflexes, and elevated neuron specific enolase levels. Unsurprisingly, each of these findings strongly predicted poor outcomes. Therefore, the high sensitivity and specificity of the NEC2RAS score for predicting poor outcome does not disentangle it from the possibility of it contributing to the self-fulfilling prophecy.

Prejudicial stereotyping and police interviewing practices in England: an exploration of legal representatives’ perceptions

ABSTRACT Research studies suggest that at the initial stage of an investigation, negative stereotypes are triggered when officers make decisions concerning a suspect with their pre-existing racial/religious images for the group to which the suspect belongs. Such stereotyping is generally argued to be one of the major sources of partiality in criminal investigations. The present study examines the legal representatives’ perceptions of police interviewing practices when investigating suspects under caution. The present study conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with fifteen defence lawyers who had represented suspects from various ethnicities within England and Wales. The thematic analysis of interview transcripts revealed that (as perceived by the legal representatives) prejudicial stereotyping can influence police officers’ attitudes towards suspects from stigmatised communities. Additionally, prejudicial stereotyping was perceived to produce guilt presumption, self-fulfilling prophecies, and confirmation bias. These findings suggest that further training of police officers seems necessary to make them more aware of the implications of such prejudicial stereotyping to improve their investigation skills, and in turn, case outcomes, and community cohesion.

Politics against individualism?

Politics against individualism?

“It’s ignorant stereotypes”: Key stakeholder perspectives on stereotypes associated with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, alcohol, and pregnancy

ABSTRACT Background People with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) and women who drink alcohol while pregnant can experience stigma, possibly exacerbated by stereotyped media portrayals. Method To understand experiences of FASD stakeholders and reactions to news coverage, we conducted twelve focus groups across three categories: (1) people with FASD; (2) caregivers; and (3) professionals. Themes were identified using framework analysis. Results We identified stereotypes about: (1) FASD (e.g., negative life trajectories); (2) alcohol and pregnancy (e.g., bad mothers); and (3) non-biological caregivers. Participants identified potential effects of FASD stereotypes (e.g., self-fulfilling prophecies) and alcohol and pregnancy stereotypes (e.g., exacerbating difficult decisions about disclosing a child’s adoptive status). Conclusions Our results align with research about difficult experiences of FASD stakeholders. However, while Canadian news analyses found people with FASD portrayed as criminals, our participants identified mostly non-crime stereotypes. Participants also sometimes shifted the burden of motherhood stereotypes from low-income to higher-income women.

Perinatal Counseling at the Margin of Gestational Viability: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going, and How to Navigate a Path Forward

Perinatal Counseling at the Margin of Gestational Viability: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going, and How to Navigate a Path Forward

The self-fulfilling prophecy of insecurity: Mediation effects of conflict communication styles on the association between adult attachment and relationship adjustment

This study examines associations between the dimensions of insecure attachment (anxiety, avoidance) and dyadic adjustment, with a potential mediating effect of conflict communication style. Dyadic analyses and mediation tests were performed on data from 97 Czech and Slovak long-term heterosexual couples. Attachment dimensions were measured by Experiences in Close Relationships-Revised measure (ECR-R-16), six conflict communication styles by the Romantic Partner Conflict Scale (RPCS), and dyadic adjustment by the Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS). We confirmed previous findings according to which in both sexes, attachment anxiety and avoidance have a negative effect on dyadic adjustment. We also found that women’s anxiety is negatively associated with their partner’s dyadic adjustment. Our mediation tests showed that in both sexes, the association between attachment anxiety and low dyadic adjustment was partially mediated by a reactive conflict communication style. Moreover, the association between attachment avoidance and low dyadic adjustment in women was partially mediated by both the reactive and compromising communication styles. These results are discussed in the context of behavioral and emotional characteristics of both attachment insecurities and gender differences in interpersonal behavior.

Daddy, Mammy and Daughter Matters and the Fulfillment of Feminine Self in John Maxwell. Coetzee’s In the Heart of the Country (1999)

คำวา “ตำนาน” มการนำมาใชในหลายลกษณะ การบนทกตำนานในสงคมไทยมหลายรปแบบ บทความนมวตถประสงคหลก 2 ประการ ประการแรก เปนการนำตำนานประเภทตำนานปรมปราในสงคมวฒนธรรมไทยทบนทกไวในเอกสารตางๆ ดวยภาษาทเปนสญลกษณมาวเคราะหโดยใชวธการศกษาแบบโครงสรางนยมของโคลด เลว สเตราส พบวา สารสำคญทบรรพชนไทยสงสารผานตำนานปรมปราเปนเรองปมความขดแยงในการเลอกรบนบถอศาสนาระหวางความเชอดงเดมกบพทธศาสนาประการหนง และเรองความสมพนธระหวางชนกลมตางๆ อกประการหนง ประการหลง เปนการวเคราะหการใชคำวา “ตำนาน” ในลกษณะตางๆ ทบานหนองขาว จงหวดกาญจนบร ซงเปนหมบานทมการจดการทองเทยวเชงวฒนธรรม ผลการศกษาทำใหเหนวา เรองราวจากทงประวตศาสตร วรรณคด ประวตชวตบคคล พทธประวต สามารถรบรในฐานะตำนานได และยงกอใหเกดตำนานและความเชออนๆ ตอไปไดอก ทงยงสามารถสรางตำนานขนใหมแลวบนทกและถายทอดในรปของการแสดงไดอกดวย การศกษาทงสองประเดนดงกลาว สะทอนใหเหนถงความภมใจของคนไทยทมภาษาไทยในการบนทกปมปญหาขดแยงในใจของบรรพชนไทยสงผานมาใหคนรนหลงไดลวงร และความภมใจของชาวบานทมตำนานตางๆ บนทกหรอถายทอดอยในชมชน ทำใหตนไดรบรหรอใชประโยชนจากตำนานเหลานน The word “Tamnan,” is used in manifold contexts. There are numerous forms of documenting tamnan in Thai society. This article contains two major objectives. First, it aims to analyze myths as a kind of tamnans in Thai culture as recorded in symbolic language in various documents, using Claude Levi-Strauss’ Structuralism. The findings show that the vital messages handed down by the Thai forefathers concern the conflict between indigenous beliefs and faith in Buddhism, and the relationship among different group of peoples. The latter objective is to analyze the use of the word “Tamnan” in different contexts in Ban Nong Khao, where cultural tourism has been promoted, in Kanchanaburi Province. The results of the study illustrate that historical accounts, literature, biographies, the life of Buddha can be acknowledged not only as tamnans but also as resources to generate other beliefs and new tamnans. Also, these tamnans can be recorded and passed on by performance. From the two results of the study, it can be seen firstly, that Thai people take pride in the Thai language which is used not only to record but also discern their ancestors’ inner cultural conflicts and secondly, that the villagers are gratified to learn and make use of those tamnans recorded and passed on in their own community.

Self-Confirming Biased Beliefs in Organizational “Learning by Doing”

Learning by doing, a change in beliefs (and consequently behaviour) due to experience, is crucial to the adaptive behaviours of organizations as well as the individuals that inhabit them. In this review paper, we summarise different pathologies of learning noted in past literature using a common underlying mechanism based on self-confirming biased beliefs. These are inaccurate beliefs about the environment that are self-confirming because acting upon these beliefs prevents their falsification. We provide a formal definition for self-confirming biased beliefs as an attractor that can lock learning by doing systems into suboptimal actions and provide illustrations based on simulations. We then compare and distinguish self-confirming biased beliefs from other related theoretical constructs, including confirmation bias, self-fulfilling prophecies, and sticking points, and underscore that self-confirming biased beliefs underlie inefficient self-confirming equilibria and hot-stove effects. Lastly, we highlight two fundamental ways to escape self-confirming biased beliefs: taking actions inconsistent with beliefs (i.e., exploration) and getting information on unchosen actions (i.e., counterfactuals).

Findings Predictive of Poor Outcome in Grade 5 Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Cohort Study.

Most patients with World Federation of Neurological Surgeons (WFNS) grade 5 subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have poor outcomes. Accurate assessment of prognosis is important for treatment decisions and conversations with families regarding goals of care. Unjustified pessimism may lead to "self-fulfilling prophecy," where withdrawal of life-sustaining measures (WLSM) is invariably followed by death. We performed a cohort study involving consecutive patients with WFNS grade 5 SAH to identify variables with >= 90% and >= 95% positive predictive value (PPV) for poor outcome (1-year modified Rankin Score >= 4), as well as findings predictive of WLSM. Of 140 patients, 38 (27%) had favorable outcomes. Predictors with >= 95% PPV for poor outcome included unconfounded 72-hour Glasgow Coma Scale motor score <= 4, absence of >= 1 pupillary light reflex (PLR) at 24 hours, and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) score of >= 20 (volume >= 54.6 ml). Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) volume >= 53 ml had PPV of 92%. Variables associated with WLSM decisions included a poor motor score (p < 0.0001) and radiographic evidence of infarction (p = 0.02). We identified several early predictors with high PPV for poor outcome. Of these, lack of improvement in motor score during the initial 72 hours had the greatest potential for confounding from "self-fulfilling prophecy." Absence of PLR at 24 hours, IVH score >= 20, and ICH volume >= 53 ml predicted poor outcome without a statistically significant effect on WLSM decisions. More research is needed to validate prognostic variables in grade 5 SAH, especially among patients who do not undergo WLSM.

The Importance of Compliance in Control Mastery Theory

ABSTRACT Compliance, according to Control Mastery Theory, is an emotional, cognitive, and behavioral response to trauma that reflects the beliefs that “you deserve what you get” and “you get what you deserve.” Patients “comply” when they 1) believe their distorted pathogenic beliefs are true, 2) act as if these beliefs were true, 3) reenact in present relationships traumatic, pathological interactions experienced earlier in childhood, and 4) tend to protect parents by justifying their hurtful behavior. Compliance results from the fact that children tend to believe parents as absolute authorities. Because of family loyalty and a wish to protect parents, children may assume the worst about themselves in dysfunctional families. Then they may act in ways that make their negative self-image true, consistent with the notion of a “self-fulfilling prophecy”. Based on these deeply embedded negative self-images and self-destructive roles, children may repeat these patterns long into adult life. Along with “pathological identifications”, the concept of “compliance” helps clinicians understand the origins of many self-destructive behaviors and why patients are so loathe to relinquish them. Clinical examples will illustrate the usefulness of understanding the role of compliance as well as treatment techniques.

‘Navigating the bubble’: Exploring student experiences of design writing

Undergraduate design students at London College of Communication were interviewed about the relationship between their writing practice and their design practice. Gardner’s theory of multiple intelligences (1983) framed the study. This article takes the position that polarizing the relationship between linguistic (textual) and bodily kinaesthetic (visual) forms of intelligence itself becomes a barrier to arts students’ epistemological development. The well-rehearsed art school rhetoric of ‘I’m a visual person not a writer’ can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, disabling the potential to learn through writing. The research explored student perceptions and experiences of design writing, with data surfacing themes of anxiety, identity, artefact, articulation, process and value. Suggestions about how to support students to write about design praxis are presented for consideration.

How Authoritarians Inflate Their Image

Authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China are skillfully puffing themselves up to appear more economically, politically, and militarily powerful than they actually are—in particular, by presenting an outsized image of their ability to influence the politics of other countries. The success of this inflation is clearly visible in Europe, the United States, and beyond. Distorted perceptions of authoritarian potency damage democratic confidence and help Russia and China to exert real influence, which turn undermines Western values and institutions. If left unchallenged, these false perceptions will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

War in the Fog: Historical Memory, the Fog of War, and Unforgetting the Aleutians War

War in the Fog:Historical Memory, the Fog of War, and Unforgetting the Aleutians War Barry Scott Zellen (bio) This article was contributed to Forum-the edition's portfolio of thematic content-by GJIA's Culture and Society section. World War II in the Pacific ended just over seventy-five years ago with Japan's August 15, 1945, historic acceptance of surrender. Announced by the Emperor of Japan in his very first radio broadcast to his nation, it was a broadcast that would never be forgotten—and one which almost never happened, as militarists tried in vain to seize the recording. But far less often evoked than the war's dramatic finale is the beginning of the end of the Pacific War, with the liberation of the outer Aleutians, reversing Japan's breathtaking imperial expansion in the preceding years—a campaign described aptly by Ira Wintermute in August 1943 as "War in the Fog," as much for the impact of the region's infamous weather as for its many frictional consequences of the fog of war.1 From the restoration of U.S. sovereignty over the island of Kiska in Alaska's Aleutian Islands chain on August 15, 1943, to the Emperor's dramatic surrender announcement two years later, a determined, bloody and successful island-hopping campaign would transpire from the frigid subarctic waters of the Aleutians to the tropical waters of the South Pacific. The historic importance of the war in the Aleutians cannot be overstated; what remains puzzling to this day, however, is the widely held view that the war in the Aleutians has become one of America's "forgotten wars," a perception so oft-repeated that without a determined effort by historians and students of war to "unforget" this war, it may well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With growing global geostrategic interest in the Arctic and subarctic regions, fueled in part by the accelerating polar thaw and its concomitant opening of new sea lanes running through the Aleutians gateway into the narrow Bering Strait, the lessons of the Aleutians War are evermore essential for remembrance. From infamy to ennui In early June of 1942, the imperial Japanese navy launched carrier raids on Dutch Harbor, Alaska, and in the days that followed, invaded and occupied the islands of Attu and Kiska in Alaska's outer Aleutians, 847 and 671 miles, respectively, to the west of Dutch (itself another 796 miles from Anchorage). The bombardment of Dutch was believed at the time to be Tokyo's opening move in a wider campaign to establish a foothold on the Alaska mainland from which to expand and project power deeper into the Pacific Northwest, one successfully thwarted by prescient U.S. efforts to fortify the region near Dutch in the months that followed the attack on Pearl Harbor.2 More recent scholarship suggests that Japan aimed less for a beachhead on North America than to distract war planners with a feint in the hope of dividing the U.S. fleet—with their ultimate goal being victory at [End Page 193] Midway. Whether Tokyo's grander ambitions for War in Alaska were thwarted by an unexpectedly vigorous defense at Dutch, or it intended from the get-go to clear and hold only the outer Aleutians, its year-long occupation of Attu and fourteen-month long occupation of Kiska became the first and only Japanese occupations of North American territory during the war. While our only loss of North American soil to imperial Japan, its invasion and occupation of the outer Aleutians that followed the bombing of Dutch was one of multiple assaults upon remote U.S. Pacific insular territories, and the second upon an incorporated U.S. territory on a trajectory that would ultimately lead to statehood. The Aleutians invasion was preceded by that previous December's near-simultaneous assaults by Japan on the unincorporated U.S. territories of the Philippines and Guam, and the incorporated territory of Hawaii. While each of these Pacific insular possessions were of strategic naval importance, and essential to maintenance of sea control in the Pacific, they are not all remembered equally today. Indeed, the assault on Pearl Harbor remains hallowed as a "day of infamy...

Design Rules, Volume 2: Chapter 12—The Planar Process and Moore's Law

Moore’s Law is the prediction that transistor densities of semiconductor chips will double, speeds double, and prices drop by half approximately every eighteen months to two years. The Law lies at the heart of the high rates of technical change observed in the computer, communication and software industries during the last fifty years. The purpose of this chapter is to explain the underpinnings of Moore’s Law and to assess whether the industry-wide rate of technical change is likely to continue. I first discuss the Law’s origin as an empirical observation and its grounding in the physics of semiconductors. I describe how the Law became established as a dynamic equilibrium among semiconductor manufacturers, and how it was challenged and reaffirmed several times. I explain how in the 1990s, the Law was institutionalized in series of an industry-wide roadmaps, which became self-fulfilling prophecies. I go on to describe the performance of semiconductor chips and companies in the five decades since the Law was first proposed. I end with a discussion of the physical limits that now constrain the operation of Moore’s Law and a description of other paths to improved performance that still remain to be explored.