Design Rules, Volume 2: Chapter 12—The Planar Process and Moore's Law

Abstract

Moore’s Law is the prediction that transistor densities of semiconductor chips will double, speeds double, and prices drop by half approximately every eighteen months to two years. The Law lies at the heart of the high rates of technical change observed in the computer, communication and software industries during the last fifty years. The purpose of this chapter is to explain the underpinnings of Moore’s Law and to assess whether the industry-wide rate of technical change is likely to continue. I first discuss the Law’s origin as an empirical observation and its grounding in the physics of semiconductors. I describe how the Law became established as a dynamic equilibrium among semiconductor manufacturers, and how it was challenged and reaffirmed several times. I explain how in the 1990s, the Law was institutionalized in series of an industry-wide roadmaps, which became self-fulfilling prophecies. I go on to describe the performance of semiconductor chips and companies in the five decades since the Law was first proposed. I end with a discussion of the physical limits that now constrain the operation of Moore’s Law and a description of other paths to improved performance that still remain to be explored.