Seismogenic Region Research Articles

The 6 September 2009 Mw5.4 Earthquake in Eastern Albania – FYROM Border: Focal Mechanisms, Slip Model, ShakeMap

On 6 September 2009 (GMT 21:49) a moderate Mw5.4 earthquake sequence burst at the eastern border of Albania with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The main shock was located ~6 km north of the epicentre of the 30 November 1967 Mw6.2 Dibra (or Debar) earthquake, which caused loss of life and considerable damage to buildings. We use broad band waveforms recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN), which receives real-time waveforms from the neighbouring networks, to compute focal mechanisms, obtain the slip model and derive the Shake Map of the mainshock. The focal mechanisms of 18 of the stronger events of the sequence, obtained through time-domain moment tensor inversion, indicate that deformation is taken up by NNE-SSW-trending normal faults, in agreement with the ~E-W extension previously identified within the Albanian orogen. Our results show that the 2009 main shock ruptured a roughly 9 km normal fault at a depth of 6 km, which strikes at 194° and dips west at ~45°. The slip of the main shock was confined to a single patch of ~9 km × 6 km, the average slip was 5 cm and the peak slip was 18 cm. The slip model was incorporated in a forward modelling scheme to simulate the ground motion distribution in the near field. The Shake Map thus obtained, based on the distribution of Peak Ground Velocity at phantom stations, outlines the mesoseismal area within the Dibra and Bulqiza districts in Albania, in accordance with macroseismic observations. The region affected by the 2009 sequence, together with the seismogenic region of the 1967 Dibra event, form a roughly NNE-SSW-trending structure which is an active seismotectonic zone in eastern Albania constituting a threat for nearby urban areas.

PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts, capabilities and future perspectives

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for regional earthquake early warning that integrates recently developed algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation in Southern Italy on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), which is deployed in a seismogenic area that is expected to produce a large earthquake within the next 20 years. In this paper we describe the architecture of the system and test its performances using both small earthquakes ( M<3.5) recorded at the ISNet and a large event recorded in Japan, through a simulation mode. The results show that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo can produce reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5–6 s from the event origin. Each estimate is provided as a probability density function, with an uncertainty that typically decreases with time: a stable solution is generally reached within 10 s from the origin. Thanks to its fully probabilistic approach, PRESTo can be a powerful tool for end-users in addressing the trade-off problem of whether and when to initiate safety measures. The software makes use of widespread standards for real-time data input and output, and can be finely tuned to easily adapt it to different networks and seismogenic regions.

Origin and distribution of different types of sinkholes in the plain areas of Southern Italy

Sinkholes constitute a significant risk in many karst areas, and may even threat human safety. Collapse sinkholes that occur catastrophically without showing premonitory signs may result in severe economic losses and casualties. In the last years, research on sinkholes and related detrimental effects has significantly increased in Italy, in the aftermath of remarkable events. Aimed at analysing the peculiar conditions which lead to sinkhole occurrence in Southern Italy, a set of cases in the plain areas of Campania, Apulia and Calabria is discussed. The considered regions show a wide variety of environmental conditions. In Campania, the plains are underlain by alluvial deposits with intercalations of volcaniclastic sediments. Sinkholes are generally located along the Tyrrhenian margin of the carbonate massifs or within intramontane Apennine basins. In Apulia, a flat and elongated peninsula, most of the cases occur on calcarenites overlying limestone bedrock along the coast. In Calabria, one of the most seismogenic Italian regions, the surveyed cases seem to be attributable mainly to earthquake-induced liquefaction. The article provides a first glance on the variety of sinkholes in the plain areas of Southern Italy, to highlight the possibility of further subsidence events in the considered regions, as well as in other comparable areas of the country.

防災科学技術研究所による深層掘削調査の概要と岩石物性試験結果（足尾・牛伏寺・新宮）

防災科学技術研究所による深層掘削調査の概要と岩石物性試験結果（足尾・牛伏寺・新宮）

東海および東南海地域における特有な地震活動パタンの再現（東海地域の地震活動変化：その６）

Changes of the seismicity pattern were examined in the Tokai and the Tonankai seismogenic regions and discussed with respect to possible crustal movements. Temporal transitions of the seismicity pattern were followed by calculating correlation coefficients between two spatial distribu.tions of earthquakes for the period of interest. I sampled M 3.5 and greater earthquakes from the JMA catalog. The catalog contains a problem of non-uniform observations, however the method utilized here is insensitive to this. Following the changes represented in the correlation coefficients, I found that the recent seismicity pattern is approaching the reference, which is precisely the pattern preceding the 1944 Tonankai earthquake. The tendency is common to both the Tokai and Tonankai regions. This implies that a similar crustal movement reappeared after a long hiatus of about sixty years in both regions. One possible cause of common changes in the Tokai and Tonankai regions is the long-term slow slip beneath Lake Hamana that has progressed during the last decade. If the cause of the recent changes in the seismicity pattern is attributed to this slow slip, the same slow slip can be interpreted as having progressed beneath Lake Hamana before the Tonankai event, which created a characteristic seismicity pattern in the past.

Shallowing of mafic crust and seismic instability in the high velocity Indian Shield

Indian shield has been frequented by number of large and moderate magnitude damaging earthquakes since historical times, including the recent disastrous ones like Latur Mw 6.3 in 1993, Jabalpur Mw 5.8 in 1997 and Bhuj Mw 7.7 in 2001. Seismogenesis of these events is still not understood well. Detailed study of nine such earthquake localities (as appended in Table 1), indicates quite high P- and S- velocities (6.2–6.7 km/s and 3.65–3.90 km/s respectively) at a shallow depth of almost surface to six kilometers. These seismogenic regions appear to be in a state of continuous uplift and erosion since geological times, which brought mafic (granulitic/amphibolitic) crust to significantly shallow levels in which stresses are accummulated due to ongoing local uplift and a high input of heatflow from the mantle. These stresses act over and above to the regional compressive stresses generated by India-Eurasia collision. As against common belief, the role played by fluids in nucleation of such earthquakes, in the relatively denser and high velocity Indian crust (compared to the other global stable continental regions), appears limited.

Earthquake hazard assessment in seismogenic systems through Markovian artificial neural network estimation: an application to the Japan area

abstract An earlier work (Herrera et al.: Earth Planets Space, 58, 973–979, 2006) introduced two new methods for seismic hazard evaluation in a geographic area with distinct, but related, seismogenic regions. These two methods are based on modeling the transition probabilities of states, i.e. patterns of presence or absence of large earthquakes, in the regions, as a Markov chain. This modeling is, in turn, based on a straightforward counting of observed transitions between states. The direct method obtains transition probabilities among states that include events with magnitudes M ≥ M r , where M r is a specified threshold magnitude. The mixed method evaluates probabilities for transitions from a state with M ≥ M r m to a state with M ≥ M r M , where M r m &lt; M r M . Both methods gave very good results when applied to the Japan area, with the mixed method giving the best results and an improved magnitude range. In the work presented here, we propose other methods that use the learning capacity of an elementary neuronal network (perceptron) to characterize the Markovian behavior of the system; these neuronal methods, direct and mixed, gave results ∼7 and ∼6% better than the counting methods, respectively. Method performance is measured using grading functions that evaluate a tradeoff between positive and negative aspects of performance. This procedure results in a normalized grade being assigned that allows comparisons among different models and methods.

Structure, tectonics and thermal state of the Lithosphere beneath intraplate seismic region of Latur, central India: An appraisal

Recent surge in intraplate seismicity has led to detailed geological and geophysical investigations, covering different continental segments of India including seismogenic region of Latur. A synthesis of such data sets to understand the prevailing tectonic and thermal state of the Lithosphere beneath Latur region, that witnessed a large scale human loss due to 1993 seismic activity, has revealed shallow surfacing of denser deeper crustal segments which may have resulted due to ongoing active subsurface tectonic activity like uplift and erosion since geological past. Below this region, Moho temperature exceeds 500°C, heat flow input from the mantle is quite high (29–35 mW/m2) and the asthenosphere is shallow (∼100±10 km). It is suggested that stress generated by ongoing upliftment and related subcrustal thermal anomaly is concentrating in this denser and stronger mafic crust within which earthquakes tend to nucleate. In all likelihood, the seismic activity witnessed in the region may stem from the deep crustal/lithospheric dynamics rather than the role of fluids at the hypocentral depth.

Upwarped high velocity mafic crust, subsurface tectonics and causes of intraplate Latur-Killari (M 6.2) and Koyna (M 6.3) earthquakes, India – A comparative study

A unique attempt is made to understand the genesis of intraplate seismicity in the Latur-Killari and Koyna seismogenic regions of India, through derived crustal structure by synthesizing active and passive seismic, magnetotelluric, gravity and heat flow data. It has indicated presence of relatively high velocity/density intermediate granulite (and amphibolite) facies rocks underneath the Deccan volcanic cover caused mainly due to a continuous geodynamic process of uplift and erosion since Precambrian times. These findings have been independently confirmed by detailed borehole geological, geochemical and mineralogical investigations. The crystalline basement rock is found to contain 2 wt% of carbon-di-oxide fluid components. The presence of geodynamic process, associated with thermal anomalies at subcrustal depths, is supported by a high mantle heat flow (29–36 mW/m 2) beneath both regions, although some structural and compositional variations may exist as evidenced by P- and S-wave seismic velocities. We suggest that the stress, caused by ongoing uplift and a high mantle heat flow is continuously accumulating in this denser and rheologically stronger mafic crust within which earthquakes tend to nucleate. These stresses appear to dominate over and above those generated by the India–Eurasia collision. The role of fluids in stress generation, as advocated through earlier studies, appears limited.

Precise aftershock distribution of the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake—Implication for a very weak region in the lower crust

The 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture Earthquake (Mjma 6.8) occurred in the region of large strain rates (>0.1 ppm/y contraction) in the intraplate region in Japan. The mainshock was followed by four major aftershocks with Mjma >= 6.0. The hypocenters of the mainshock and two large aftershocks that occurred in the central part of the aftershock region were located near the lower limit of the earthquake distribution, while hypocenters of the other two aftershocks near both ends, are located near its upper limit. Furthermore, the fault planes of the latter two aftershocks were confined within the upper half of the upper crust. Also, the lower limit of the aftershock distribution is deepest in the central part and becomes shallower toward the NNE and SSW ends. These data can be explained by the hypothesis that a localized stress concentration occurred near the bottom of the seismogenic region only in the central part. The stress concentration may be generated by the deformation in the very weak region of low strength in the lower crust beneath the central part of the aftershock region.

Spatiotemporal distribution of very-low frequency earthquakes in Tokachi-oki near the junction of the Kuril and Japan trenches revealed by using array signal processing

Abstract We have developed a signal-processing method for array data recorded at densely and widely distributed tiltmeter stations in Japan and analyzed the data recorded during the last 5 years. Filtered seismograms were analyzed to detect coherent seismic waves and estimate the epicenters. In order to identify very-low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) with only low-frequency energies only, we selected only events not listed in the earthquake catalogue provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency from all of the detected events. The epicenters of the obtained VLFEs were estimated to be distributed not only along the Nankai Trough, where the events occurred on the reverse faults in the well-developed accretionary prism, but also in Tokachi-oki without accretion. This result suggests that even in such a region, VLFEs can occur on a shallower portion of the plate boundary than the seismogenic region of ordinary earthquakes and/or in a deformed area of the overriding plate along the subduction zone without accretion.

A forward test of the Decelerating–Accelerating Seismic Strain model to western south and central America

Global observations show that strong mainshocks are preceded by decelerating preshocks which occur in the focal (seismogenic) region of the ensuing mainshock and by accelerating preshocks which occur in a broader (critical) region of the mainshock. Predictive properties of these preshocks have been expressed by empirical relations supported by theory and form the Decelerating–Accelerating Seismic Strain (D–AS) model. A respective algorithm has been developed which is used to identify the critical and seismogenic region and estimate (predict) the corresponding ensuing mainshock. In the present work a forward test of this model is performed by attempting intermediate-term prediction of future big ( M ≥ 7.7) mainshocks along the western coast of south and central America. Three regions of decelerating shocks and three corresponding regions of accelerating shocks have been identified. The parameters (origin time, magnitude, epicenter coordinates) as well as their uncertainties have been estimated (predicted) for the corresponding probably ensuing three mainshocks. This forward test allows an objective evaluation of the model's ability for an intermediate-term prediction of strong shallow mainshocks.

Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to some Italian seismogenic zones

In this paper, we evaluate the seismic hazard of a region in southern Italy by analysing stress release models from the Bayesian viewpoint; the data are drawn from the most recent version of the parametric catalogue of Italian earthquakes. For estimation we just use the events up to 1992, then we forecast the date of the next event through a stochastic simulation method and we compare the result with the really occurred shocks in the span 1993–2002. The original version of the stress release model, proposed by Vere-Jones in 1978, transposes Reid's elastic rebound theory in the framework of stochastic point processes. Since the nineties enriched versions of this model have appeared in the literature, applied to historical catalogues from China, Iran, Japan; they envisage the identification of independent or interacting tectonic subunits constituting the region under exam. It follows that the stress release models, designed for regional analyses, are evolving towards studies on fault segments, realizing some degree of convergence to those models that start from an individual fault and, considering the interactions with nearby segments, are driven to studies on regional scale. The optimal performance of the models we consider depends on a set of choices among which: the seismogenic region and possible subzones, the threshold magnitude, the length of the time period. In this paper, we focus our attention on the influence of the subdivision of the region under exam into tectonic units; in the light of the recent studies on the fault segmentation model of Italy we propose a partition of Sannio-Matese-Ofanto-Irpinia, one of the most seismically active region in southern Italy. The results show that the performance of the stress release models improves in terms of both fitting and forecasting when the region is split up into parts including new information about potential seismogenic sources.

Evidence for coupled seismic and aseismic fault slip during water injection in the geothermal site of Soultz (France), and implications for seismogenic transients

We analysed the triggered seismicity recorded near 3 km in depth within granite during the 1993 water injection experiment at Soultz (France). We selected all large multiplets associated with the largest dislocated fault identified on the borehole logging (4.3 cm slip), and showed that each one consisted of the repeated rupture of a single asperity. These asperities were forced to rupture due to fault creep around them, so that their growing, cumulative slip history reveals the creep history on the fault, with a mean slip rate and a seismicity rate both decaying approximately as 1/t. This is consistent with a rate-strengthening friction law on the creeping faults, and differs from the interpretation of Omori type 1/t seismicity rates in terms of a weakening friction control of the unstable fault surfaces. This model of asperity rupture forced by relaxation creep is easily generalized in seismogenic regions, even for single ruptures of asperities on small creeping faults, showing that a significant part of aftershock rates can be controlled by the strengthening friction properties and the creep of faults at all scales. This lead us to introduce the concept of a critical asperity density, above which dynamic interaction between neighbouring asperities can initiate large seismic ruptures. At Soultz, the asperity density is subcritical, but the neighbouring asperities nonetheless interact, at distances up to a few source dimensions, as revealed by their delayed cross-triggering. Considering the seismic cloud in Soultz at a global scale, the strain produced by the injection experiment was mostly aseismic, related to creep on major faults, and causing large permeability changes – influencing in turn the pore pressure diffusion and the creeping process. Our observations demonstrate that the identification and analysis of multiplets can provide accurate images of the geometry and kinematics of transient slip patches, and indirectly detect pore pressure changes, which should contribute to a better understanding of the coupling between transient fluid flow, creep and microseismic activity in seismogenic regions.

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Time-dependent earthquake hazard evaluation in seismogenic systems using mixed Markov Chains: An application to the Japan area

Abstract A previous work introduced a new method for seismic hazard evaluation in a system (a geographic area with distinct, but related seismogenic regions) based on modeling the transition probabilities of states (patterns of presence or absence of seismicity, with magnitude greater or equal to a threshold magnitude M r, in the regions of the system, during a time interval Δt) as a Markov chain. Application of this direct method to the Japan area gave very good results. Given that the most important limitation of the direct method is the relative scarcity of large magnitude events, we decided to explore the possibility that seismicity with magnitude M ≥ M r m contains information about the future occurrence of earthquakes with M M r m &gt; M r m . This mixed Markov chain method estimates the probabilities of occurrence of a system state for M ≥ M r M on the basis of the observed state for M ≥ M r m in the previous Δt. Application of the mixed method to the area of Japan gives better hazard estimations than the direct method; in particular for large earthquakes. As part of this study, the problem of performance evaluation of hazard estimation methods is addressed, leading to the use of grading functions.

Decelerating precursory seismicity in Vrancea

Preshock seismic excitation followed by seismic quiescence has been observed in the seismogenic region of strong shallow mainshocks. The strain released by such preshocks is decelerating with the time to the mainshock and is fitted by a power-law with a power value larger than unit. This model is tested in the present work for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea region, generated in an isolated seismogenic zone proper for such testing. A backward application of this “decelerating preshock strain” model for the case of 4.3.1977 ( M = 7.5) earthquake, for which reliable data are available, shows a good fit of the power-law pattern to the seismic activity preceding the main shock. The occurrence rate of recent intermediate-depth shocks in Vrancea indicates that this region is currently in a state of decelerating seismic deformation, which may lead to the generation of a strong intermediate-depth mainshock there at about the beginning of the third decade of the present century. The respective uncertainties are unknown due to lack of previous relative studies.

New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release

Recent reliable data are used to study the behavior of seismic activity before 46 strong shallow earthquakes ( M ≥ 6.0), which correspond to five complete samples of mainshocks. These samples include 6 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.1) that occurred in western Mediterranean since 1980, 17 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.2) which occurred in the Aegean (Greece and surrounding area) since 1980, 5 mainshocks ( M = 6.4–7.5) that occurred in Anatolia since 1980, 12 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.3) that occurred in California since 1980 and 6 mainshocks ( M = 7.0–8.3) that occurred in Japan since 1990. In all 46 cases, a similar precursory seismicity pattern is observed. Specifically, it is observed that accelerating Benioff strain (square root of seismic energy) release caused by preshocks occurs in a broad circular region (critical region), with a radius about eight times larger than the fault length of the mainshock, in agreement with results obtained by various research groups during the last two decades. However, in a much smaller circular region (seismogenic region), with a radius about four times the fault length, the corresponding preshock strain decelerates with the time to the mainshock. The time variation of the strain follows in both cases a power law but the exponent power is smaller than unit ( m ¯ = 0.3) in the case of the accelerating preshock strain and larger than unit ( m ¯ = 3.0) in the case of the decelerating preshock strain. Predictive properties of this “Decelerating In–Accelerating Out Strain” model are expressed by empirical relations. The possibility of using this model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is discussed and the relative model uncertainties are estimated.

Co-seismic frictional melting along an out-of-sequence thrust in the Shimanto accretionary complex. Implications on the tsunamigenic potential of splay faults in modern subduction zones

Out-of-sequence thrusts (OST) play an important role in the thickening of accretionary prisms, formation of forearc basins, and tsunami generation in subduction zones. By detailed investigations of geological and paleogeothermal structures, an ancient seismogenic OST is identified in the Shimanto accretionary complex, southwest Japan. This OST consists of a mappable en echelon fault system developed at a late stage of the accretionary process. The estimated accumulated displacement of 2.5–8.5 km and formation depth of 2.5–5.5 km, based on a thermal analysis, indicates much higher fault activities sense of slip with a sinistral slip, and the large displacement was distributed among multiple small faults each with a small offset. Most of the faults in the en echelon fault system recorded repeated brittle failure, and one fault preserves pseudotachylyte, a fault rock indicative of seismic faulting. This is the first report of pseudotachylyte along an OST in an accretionary prism. Repeated fracturing in the same narrow shear zones (each only a few millimeters thick) suggests the OSTs perform as major shear localized zone in the accretionary prism. Shallow estimated formation depth and consequent low normal stress also support the hypothesis by a weak coupling along this fault zone. These findings are in accord with a thrust activity in the shallow portion of the accretionary prism being associated with rupture propagation from the deep seismogenic region. This OST showed high activity and repeated faulting in the shallow portion of the accretionary prism, comparable to that of the submarine tsunamigenic OST in the present Nankai trough.

The Southern Region of Peru Earthquake of June 23rd, 2001

The western border of South America is one of the most important seismogenic regions in the world. In this region the most damaging earthquake ever recorded occurred. In June 23rd, 2001, another very strong earthquake (Mw = 8.1–8.2) occurred and produced death and damages in the whole southern region of Peru. This earthquake was originated by a friction process between Nazca and South American plates and affected an area of about 300 km × 120 km defined by the distribution of more than 220 aftershocks recorded by a local seismic network that operated 20 days. The epicenter of the main shock was localized in the northwestern extremity of the aftershock area, which suggests that the rupture propagated towards the SE direction. The modeling of P-wave for teleseismic distances permitted to define a focal mechanism of reverse type with NW-SE oriented nodal planes and a possible fault plane moving beneath almost horizontally in NE direction. The source time function (STF) suggests a complex process of rupture during 85 sec with 2 successive sources. The second one of greater size, and located approximately 100–120 km toward the SE direction was estimated to have a rupture velocity of about 2 km/sec on a 28°-dipping plane to the SE (N135°). A second event happened 45 sec after the first one with an epicenter 130km farther to the SE and a complex STF. This event and the second source of the main shock caused a Tsunami with waves from 7 to 8 meters that propagated almost orthogonally to the coast line, by affecting mainly the Camana area.