Abstract
Recent reliable data are used to study the behavior of seismic activity before 46 strong shallow earthquakes ( M ≥ 6.0), which correspond to five complete samples of mainshocks. These samples include 6 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.1) that occurred in western Mediterranean since 1980, 17 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.2) which occurred in the Aegean (Greece and surrounding area) since 1980, 5 mainshocks ( M = 6.4–7.5) that occurred in Anatolia since 1980, 12 mainshocks ( M = 6.0–7.3) that occurred in California since 1980 and 6 mainshocks ( M = 7.0–8.3) that occurred in Japan since 1990. In all 46 cases, a similar precursory seismicity pattern is observed. Specifically, it is observed that accelerating Benioff strain (square root of seismic energy) release caused by preshocks occurs in a broad circular region (critical region), with a radius about eight times larger than the fault length of the mainshock, in agreement with results obtained by various research groups during the last two decades. However, in a much smaller circular region (seismogenic region), with a radius about four times the fault length, the corresponding preshock strain decelerates with the time to the mainshock. The time variation of the strain follows in both cases a power law but the exponent power is smaller than unit ( m ¯ = 0.3) in the case of the accelerating preshock strain and larger than unit ( m ¯ = 3.0) in the case of the decelerating preshock strain. Predictive properties of this “Decelerating In–Accelerating Out Strain” model are expressed by empirical relations. The possibility of using this model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is discussed and the relative model uncertainties are estimated.
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