Time dependent seismicity along the western coast of Canada

Abstract

Decelerating generation of intermediate magnitude earthquakes (preshocks) in a narrow region (seismogenic region) and accelerating generation of relatively larger such earthquakes in a broader region (critical region) has been proposed as an appropriate model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. We examined the seismic activity which preceded the M<sub>w</sub>=7.7 (October 28, 2012) thrust event that occurred off the west coast of Haida Gwaii, Canada (formerly the Queen Charlotte islands), by applying the decelerating-accelerating seismic strain model. We found that this mainshock was preceded by a pronounced accelerating seismic sequence with the time to the mainshock, as well as by an equally easily identifiable decelerating seismic sequence. Both precursory seismic sequences occurred in different space, time and magnitude windows. The behavior of previous mainshocks that occurred close to the 2012 earthquake was also examined by the time and magnitude predictable regional model. An attempt was also made to identify such seismic strain patterns, which may also be related to the generation of strong mainshocks along the western coast of Canada.