Seasonal Increase Research Articles

Changes in compound flood event frequency in northern and central Europe under climate change

The simultaneous occurrence of increased river discharge and high coastal water levels may cause compound flooding. Compound flood events can potentially cause greater damage than the separate occurrence of the underlying extreme events, making them essential for risk assessment. Even though a general increase in the frequency and/or severity of compound flood events is assumed due to climate change, there have been very few studies conducted for larger regions of Europe. Our work, therefore, focuses on the high-resolution analysis of changes in extreme events of coastal water levels, river discharge, and their concurrent appearance at the end of this century in northern and central Europe (2070–2099). For this, we analyze downscaled data sets from two global climate models (GCMs) for the two emissions scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. First, we compare the historical runs of the downscaled GCMs to historical reconstruction data to investigate if they deliver comparable results for northern and central Europe. Then we study changes in the intensity of extreme events, their number, and the duration of extreme event seasons under climate change. Our analysis shows increases in compound flood events over the whole European domain, mostly due to the rising mean sea level. In some areas, the number of compound flood event days increases by a factor of eight at the end of the current century. This increase is concomitant with an increase in the annual compound flood event season duration. Furthermore, the sea level rise associated with a global warming of 2K will result in double the amounts of compound flood event days for nearly every European river estuary considered.

Seasonality and lake water temperature inferred from the geochemistry and sclerochronology of quaternary freshwater bivalves from the Turkana Basin, Ethiopia and Kenya

Reconstructing past environmental variability at short (annual-decadal) time scales is critical for understanding ecosystem change and ecological drivers of evolution. One promising approach to reconstructing that variability is through the use of stable isotope geochemistry and sclerochronology, the study of growth banding in organisms that undergo accretionary growth. We used a combination of sclerochronology, conventional stable isotope ratios and clumped isotope paleotemperatures to improve our understanding of past seasonality and climate variability in the Turkana Basin (Kenya, Ethiopia), which experiences a highly seasonal (tropical semi-desert) climate. In this case study, we apply these approaches to both Early Pleistocene and Holocene bivalve shells (Etheria and Pseudobovaria) to develop a model using various proxies of seasonal-interannual temporal variability in lake temperature and isotope chemistry. We leverage this model to better understand how lakes in the Turkana Basin have changed over short time-scales in the past. One modern (1979) river oyster has exclusively negative δ18O values through ∼1.5 yrs of growth and clumped isotope temperature reconstructions (30.1–31.5 °C) consistent with a river delta provenance. Late Holocene shells show a wider range of isotopic variability within each shell's growth history than the modern sample (∼2‰ for the modern sample vs. 5–7‰ for the Late Holocene samples) and near modern paleotemperatures, suggesting growth under both seasonal Omo flood pulse and lacustrine conditions. Middle Holocene shells exhibit less δ18O variability, consistent with growth in fresher Lake Turkana water at the end of the African Humid Period (12-5 ka), and with both surface water temperatures and water column temperature range similar to the Late Holocene. The Early Pleistocene shells have large seasonal δ18O cycles (4–7‰), with δ18O values comparable to modern and Holocene deltaic shells, and a large range of paleotemperatures (21.8–31.3 °C, including temperatures notably cooler than those measured in the modern lake: 25–31 °C), reflecting growth under significant seasonality in paleo-Omo River runoff. Oxygen isotope cycles suggest high degrees of seasonality of the paleo-Omo River runoff (or that of other major influents) into paleolake Lorenyang at ∼1.6 Ma, which may be similar to modern hydroclimate conditions. Comparison to prior datasets from nearby outcrops in the same basin suggests an increase in hydroclimate seasonality between 1.9 and 1.6 Ma. The combination of clumped isotope paleotemperature estimates from shallow water species such as E. elliptica with TEX86 measurements (derived here from previously published, contemporaneous sediment core studies from the south basin of Lake Turkana), which record temperatures near the oxycline, may provide a new approach to estimating past temperature variability along a vertical profile in lakes, thereby providing information on water column mixing regimes. Our approach greatly expands our toolkit for understanding coupled climate seasonality and variability in the Turkana Basin.

Estimation of the grain, sweet and grass sorghum samples for resistance to low above zero temperatures seedlings

Relevance. Increasing the cold resistance of heat-loving crops is an urgent problem of breeding. During germination, seeds and seedlings are exposed to temperature stress, which has a negative effect on plants, and therefore the duration of the growing season increases, yields and product quality decrease. The article presents experimental data on the assessment of resistance to low positive temperatures of grain sorghum, sugar and herbaceous selection «ANC “Donskoy”». The purpose of the study is to identify sources tolerant to the cold of the breeding material of grain sorghum, sugar and herbaceous.Methods. The research was conducted in the Laboratory of Plant Physiology of the Federal State Budgetary Institution «ANC “Donskoy”» from 2019 to 2022. Diagnostics of cold resistance was carried out at the initial stage of plant development by a method in which seeds were germinated under the influence of low positive temperatures (8 °C), followed by their growth at an optimal temperature (25 °C).Results. Varieties of different types of sorghum resistant to low temperatures have been identified. Seed germination at low positive temperatures was 93.4% and 91.4% for herbaceous and sugar sorghum, and 79.1% for grain sorghum. There have been identified such cold resistant samples of different sorghum samples, characterized by high germination rates and intensity of seed growth in the initial period as the grain sorghum samples (Demetra x ZSK 404/17’, Demetra x Uch. 42/20 and Demetra x ZSK 20/10), the sweet sorghum samples (Demetra x KD-388, Demetra x South and APV-1115 x KL 12198), the grass sorghum samples (APV-1115 x Ch 4, Demetra x LIK-2011 and APV 1115 x Sv. 4).

Snow Cover on the Tibetan Plateau and Lake Baikal Intensifies the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThis paper revealed a physical connection between the antiphase variation in the preceding autumn Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Lake Baikal snow cover anomalies (TBSA) and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time scales during 1979–2021. The antiphase variation in TBSA, accounting for 44% of the total years, has a dipole structure in autumn, which prolonged into the following winter. The persistent antiphase TBSA associated diabatic forcing, disturbances and transient eddies favor a double wave train structure spanning the TP (east of Baikal) and North Atlantic from autumn to winter. Amid the wave train, the circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic extract more energy from the basic flow due to the seasonal increase in the westerly jet, which further evolves into the winter NAO pattern. Our results provide new insights into the formation and projection of winter NAO from the perspective of subtropical and extratropical Eurasia snow.

Distributions of humic substances in an estuarine region (Otsuchi Bay, Japan) determined using electrochemical and optical methods

Humic substances are major components of the dissolved organic carbon pool in aquatic environments that can bind to trace metals like copper and iron as organic ligands. The unique chromophoric and fluorescence properties of humic substances enabled measurements using conventional optical methods but recently a new electrochemical method using cathodic stripping voltammetry has emerged. In this study, we employed both methods to measure humic substances and elucidate their distribution patterns in Otsuchi Bay in Japan. The electroactive humic substances (eHS) detected using the electrochemical method were higher in the rivers (range 0.24 to 4.3 mg L−1) than in the coastal bay (range 0.08 to 0.69 mg L−1). Both methods revealed significantly higher humic concentrations in the surrounding rivers than in Otsuchi Bay, indicating that riverine sources are an important source of humic substances to Otsuchi Bay, consistent with previous observations in riverine systems globally. eHS correlated well with optical indices of dissolved organic matter (DOM) including humic and marine humic-like fluorescent DOM and chromophoric DOM. Furthermore, comparison with data from the literature suggests that about 20% of the weaker Cu-binding organic ligand pool in Otsuchi Bay may consist of eHS. As Cu-binding organic ligands, eHS may be important in buffering temporal or seasonal increases in Cu fluxes in estuarine regions, with possible implications for nutrient bioavailability and toxicity for primary producers.

Absence of photophysiological response to iron addition in autumn phytoplankton in the Antarctic sea-ice zone

Abstract. The high nutrient–low chlorophyll condition of the Southern Ocean is generally thought to be caused by the low bioavailability of micronutrients, particularly iron, which plays an integral role in phytoplankton photosynthesis. Nevertheless, the Southern Ocean experiences seasonal blooms that generally initiate in austral spring, peak in summer, and extend into autumn. This seasonal increase in primary productivity is typically linked to the seasonal characteristics of nutrient and light supply. To better understand the potential limitations on productivity in the Antarctic sea-ice zone (SIZ), the photophysiological response of phytoplankton to iron addition (2.0 nM FeCl3) was investigated during autumn along the Antarctic coast off Dronning Maud Land. Five short-term (24 h) incubation experiments were conducted around Astrid Ridge (68∘ S) and along a 6∘ E transect, where an autumn bloom was identified in the region of the western SIZ. Surface iron concentrations ranged from 0.27 to 1.39 nM around Astrid Ridge, and 0.56 to 0.63 nM along the 6∘ E transect. Contrary to expectation, the photophysiological response of phytoplankton to iron addition, measured through the photosynthetic efficiency and the absorption cross-section for photosystem II, showed no significant responses. It is thus proposed that since the autumn phytoplankton in the SIZ exhibited a lack of an iron limitation at the time of sampling, the ambient iron concentrations may have been sufficient to fulfil the cellular requirements. This provides new insights into extended iron replete post-bloom conditions in the typically assumed iron deficient high nutrient–low chlorophyll Southern Ocean.

Response of a novel denitrifying phosphorus removal (AAO-BCO) system to sinusoidal flow perturbation of municipal sewage: Adaptability, tolerance and improvement

To date, studies on the effect of sewage disturbances on treatment facilities were based on fixed-length flow variations, which are incapable of imitating the actual dynamic flow characteristics of municipal sewage. Here, an innovative dynamic influent disturbance control system is established in this study and applied in a novel denitrifying phosphorus removal (anaerobic anoxic oxic-biological contact oxidation, AAO-BCO) system to simulate seasonal and diurnal sewage fluctuations in laboratory-scale experiments. The results showed that, under sinusoidal influent flow perturbation, the effluent pollutant content followed a relatively gentle sinusoidal trend and did not always result in desired level of pollutant removal. The ability of the system to cope with sinusoidal flow variations was susceptible to the amplitude of diurnal sewage fluctuation, while stronger tolerance capacity was observed to seasonal and momentary increase in wastewater flowrate. There was also a discrepancy in the system buffering capacity towards various pollutants removal (COD > TIN > PO43−), which may be attributed to wide fluctuations in PO43−/NO3− and different decrease in metabolic activity of denitrifying phosphorus removal (DPR) sludge caused by extreme hydraulic retention times. To improve the robustness and stability of the DPR system, a regulating strategy was proposed to alleviate the biomass reduction and uncoordinated PO43−/NO3−.

Utility of Borrelia-specific IgM and IgG antibody titer determinations during a 12-year period - results from a clinical laboratory in Northern Sweden.

Interpretation of serological findings in suspected Lyme borreliosis (LB) is challenging and IgM reactivities may have low predictive value. Therefore, if used indiscriminately, there is a risk for incorrect diagnosis of LB. To evaluate the usefulness of IgM titer determination, we performed a study of the prevalence of Borrelia-specific antibodies in serological samples from patients with suspected LB analyzed during the period 2010 - 2021 at the University Hospital of Umeå in Sweden. In total, 19,335 samples had been analyzed for the presence of IgG and IgM antibodies. Overall, there were higher percentages of IgM positive or borderline titers, 1,847 (9.6%) and 905 (4.7%), respectively, than IgG positive or borderline titers, 959 (5.0%) and 406 (2.1%), respectively. Peak number of samples were recorded 2012 - 2013, exceeding 1,800, whereas there were around 1,200 during 2020 - 2021. The peak number of positive IgG and/or positive IgM samples were observed during the period 2015 - 2017 with close to, or above 400, and concomitantly, the proportion of IgG positive samples increased markedly. For IgG positive samples, the increase followed a positive linear time trend (P< 0.001). Peak monthly numbers were observed during August, September, and October. This seasonal increase was significant for the IgG positive group (P< 0.05), but not for the IgM positive/IgG negative group. Repeated samples were obtained from 3,188 individuals and of the initial samples 2,817 were (88%) IgG negative and 2,315 (72%) were IgM negative and of these, 130 (4%) showed IgG seroconversion and 300 (9%) IgM seroconversion. Collectively, the data demonstrate that IgG and/or IgM positive samples represented a minority of all samples, even when repeated sampling had occurred, and IgM positive samples were much more common than IgG positive samples. Thus, the accuracy of the clinical suspicion was low and this will lead to a low predictive value of the analysis, in particular of IgM. These findings question the use of IgM titer determination as a routine analysis.

Local adaptation to aridity in a widely distributed angiosperm tree species is mediated by seasonal increase of sugars and reduced growth.

Trees in dry climates often have higher concentrations of total non-structural carbohydrates (NSC=starch + soluble sugars) and grow less than conspecifics in more humid climates. This pattern might result from growth being more constrained by aridity than the carbon (C) gain, or reflect local adaptation to aridity, since NSC fuel metabolism and ensure adequate osmoregulation through the supply of soluble sugars (SS), while low growth reduces water and C demands. It has been further proposed that C allocation to storage could come at the expense of growth (i.e., a growth-storage trade-off). We examined whether NSC and growth reflect local adaptation to aridity in Embothrium coccineum (Proteaceae), a species with an exceptionally wide niche. To control for any influence of the phenotypic plasticity on NSC and growth, we collected seeds from dry (500mmyear-1) and moist (> 2500mmyear-1) climates and grew seedlings in a common garden experiment for 3years. We then compared NSC and SS concentrations and pools (i.e., total contents), and the biomass of seedlings at spring, summer, and fall. Seedlings from the dry climate had significantly lower biomass and similar NSC concentrations and pools than seedlings from moist climate, suggesting that reduced growth in arid environments does not result from a prioritization of C allocation to storage but it confers advantages under aridity (e.g., lower transpiration area). Across organs, starch and NSC decreased similarly in seedlings from both climates from spring onward. However, root and stem SS concentrations increased during the growing season, and these increases were significantly higher in seedlings from the dry climate. The greater SS accumulation in seedlings from the dry climate compared to those from the moist climate demonstrates ecotypic differentiation in the seasonal dynamics of SS, suggesting that SS underlie local adaptation to aridity. (298 words).

Global analysis of seasonal changes in trematode infection levels reveals weak and variable link to temperature

Seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive phenology, i.e., the annual timing of biological events ranging from the individual to the ecosystem. Phenological patterns and successional abundance cycles have been particularly well studied in temperate freshwater systems, showing strong and predictable synchrony with seasonal changes. However, seasonal successional changes in the abundance of parasites or their infection levels in aquatic hosts have not yet been shown to follow universal patterns. Here, using a compilation of several hundred estimates of spring-to-summer changes in infection by trematodes in their intermediate and definitive hosts, spanning multiple species and habitats, we test for general patterns of seasonal (temperature) driven changes in infection levels. The data include almost as many decreases in infection levels from spring to summer as there are increases, across different host types. Our results reveal that the magnitude of the spring-to-summer change in temperature had a weak positive effect on the concurrent change in prevalence of infection in first intermediate hosts, but no effect on the change in prevalence or abundance of infection in second intermediate or definitive hosts. This was true across habitat types and host taxa, indicating no universal effect of seasonal temperature increase on trematode infections. This surprising variation across systems suggests a predominance of idiosyncratic and species-specific responses in trematode infection levels, at odds with any clear phenological or successional pattern. We discuss possible reasons for the minimal and variable effect of seasonal temperature regimes, and emphasise the challenges this poses for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change.

Anthropogenic Neighborhood Impact on Bacterial and Fungal Communities in Polar Bear Feces.

Climate changes cause a dramatical increase in the ice-free season in the Arctic, forcing polar bears ashore, closer to human settlements associated with new and non-natural food objects. Such a diet may crucially transform the intestinal microbiome and metabolism of polar bears. The aim of this study was to characterize changes in the gut bacterial and fungal communities resulting from the transition to anthropogenic food objects by the means of 16S and ITS metabarcoding. Thus, rectal samples from 16 wild polar bears from the Kara-Barents subpopulation were studied. Human waste consuming resulted in a significant increase in the relative abundance of fermentative bacteria (Lactobacillaceae, Leuconostocaceae, and Streptococcaceae) and a decrease in proteolytic Enterobacteriaceae. However, the alpha-diversity parameters remained similar. Also, for the first time, the composition of the fungal community of the polar bear intestine was determined. Diet change is associated with the displacement of eurybiontic fungi (Thelebolus, Dipodascus, Candida (sake), and Geotrichum) by opportunistic Candida (tropicalis), Kazachstania, and Trichosporon. Feeding on human waste does not cause any signs of dysbiosis and probably leads to adaptive changes in the bacterial microbiome. However, the emergence of fungal facultative pathogens increases the risk of infections.

Modal Kerja CV. Percetakan Sofasco

The purpose of this study is to determine the working capital on the CV. Sofasco Printing. The method used is descriptive such as literature studies, interviews and document analysis. Running a business requires working capital for its daily operations. Of course, every job in the business requires sufficient and good working capital. The company does not experience difficulties facing economic crises or financial problems, thus enabling the company to operate properly and optimally and achieve company goals. CV income. Sofasco printing per month can be seen from January to August, while for seasonal increases there are from June to August where there are many purchases such as Indonesian Independence Day, invitation cards and so on. Industrial visits that experience an increase in working capital can provide varying results depending on the industrial sector and the strategies implemented. The following are some of the possible outcomes as a result of increasing working capital in industrial visits: Increased Production, Improved Production Quality, Improved Operational Efficiency, Improved Marketing and Sales, Increased Profits and Growth of the company.

Factors influencing somatic cell counts and bacterial contamination in unpasteurized milk obtained from water buffalo in Bangladesh

Little has been published on the factors influencing the safety and quality of milk derived from water buffalo in Bangladesh. This study aims to describe the milk hygiene parameters and milk chain characteristics of unpasteurized raw milk sold to consumers in order to improve milk hygiene. A quantitative study design evaluated somatic cell counts, total bacterial counts, and specific gram-negative (Enterobacteria) and gram-positive (staphylococci) pathogens in 377 aseptically collected milk samples. Samples were collected at multiple nodes along the buffalo milk value chain: 122 bulk tank milk samples were collected at the farm level, 109 milk samples at the middlemen level, and 111 milk samples at the milk collection centers. In addition, 35 samples were taken from various milk products at the retail level. It was found that progressively increasing somatic cell counts and bacterial counts, including potential pathogens, occurred along the milk chain. A seasonal increase in spring was found, varying based on the farming system (semi-intensive versus intensive). Other factors included water purity and cleanliness of containers, mixing buffalo and cow’s milk, and the location of the water buffalo milk producer (coastal or river basin). This study demonstrated how improving udder health and milk hygiene along the water buffalo milk value chain would increase the safety and quality of water buffalo milk in the study area.

Trends and duration of antibacterial drug supply chain issues in the United States, January 2017–June 2022

Background: Drug manufacturing and distribution is a complex, global process. The global drug supply chain is prone to disruptions associated with geopolitical issues, trade, civil unrest, severe weather, and pandemics, all of which have the potential to affect medication supply and result in drug shortages. To our knowledge, the extent to which the supply of antimicrobials is threated due to disruptions in the drug supply chain in the United States is unknown. We examined trends and duration of disruptions to the drug supply chain for antimicrobials. Methods: Manufacturer reports of supply disruptions were extracted from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the American Society for Health-Systems Pharmacists (ASHP) websites and merged on the agent-formulation level. For each month of the study period, a drug was considered to have an active supply chain issue if an FDA or ASHP shortage or recall report overlapped with that month for ≥15 days, or if a discontinuation had occurred within the previous 3 months. Total months of supply chain issues were summed for antimicrobials overall, at the agent formulation , and class levels. A Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the significance of trends in supply-chain issues. Results: Of 105 antimicrobials purchased in the United States, 74 (70%) had a supply-chain issue for ≥1 month from January 15, 2017, to June 30, 2022. Combined, the 74 agents had 1,611 total months of supply-chain issues over the 66-month study period. Agents from the penicillin class were most frequently affected (ie, 80% of penicillins had supply-chain issues for 206 months), but cephalosporins had supply-chain issues for the longest duration (66% of cephalosporins for 653 months). From 2017–2021, supply-chain issues decreased significantly for penicillins and quinolones (tests of trend, P = .01 and .02, respectively). No trend was identified for the other classes or antimicrobials overall. Interestingly, supply-chain issues for most classes did not increase with seasonal increases in antimicrobial use. Also, supply-chain issues affected 33 antimicrobial agents for at least half of the study period, and supply-chain issues affected ampicillin-sulbactam, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, cefotetan, cefepime, clindamycin, vancomycin for 100% of the study period. Conclusions: Drug supply-chain issues commonly affect antimicrobials and are not improving for most classes. Drug supply-chain issues cause significant strain on healthcare, including drug procurement, access to optimal therapy, and poses challenges to prescribing and antimicrobial stewardship. To decrease the threat to the antibacterial drug supply, action should be taken to strengthen the drug supply chain to ensure access to these essential medicines.Disclosures: None

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on Seasonal Influenza Patterns in West Virginia

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic began in West Virginia (WV) in March 2020 at the end of the seasonal increase in influenza virus infections. Diagnostic and surveillance testing for influenza continued throughout the pandemic because these viruses cause similar diseases and the effect of SARS-CoV-2 on seasonal influenza patterns were unpredictable. Methods Positivity rates for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses were studied using test results obtained from samples collected across an academic health system from July 2018 through June 2022. Trends in COVID-19 variants were assessed using data obtained from national and local databases. Data were analyzed to detect differences in and correlations between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza positivity rates. Results Test positivity rates were higher for the 602,109 SARS-CoV-2 tests than the 186,563 influenza tests performed during the study period (13.7% vs. 3.5%, p&lt;0.0001). SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rose and fell with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of differing infectivity, being highest when the omicron variant predominated. Significant negative correlations between the number of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza positive tests were seen throughout stages of the pandemic. The normally expected influenza season did not occur during winter 2020 through spring 2021, and there were essentially no influenza cases during the delta surge. A more typical pattern of seasonal influenza was observed in late 2021 to early 2022 during the omicron surge. Conclusion There was an inverse correlation between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza test positivity rates observed throughout several COVID-19 surges in WV. The reasons for these correlations are unclear.

Accuracy Verification of Satellite Products and Temporal and Spatial Distribution Analysis and Prediction of the CH4 Concentration in China

In this study, the spatiotemporal variations in CH4 concentrations in China from 2003 to 2021 are investigated, and their trends are forecasted over the next decade. Based on the seventh edition standard product retrieved by the atmospheric infrared detector (AIRS) at an altitude of 500 hPa, we verified monthly CH4 products using observational data provided by the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) from six ground stations in and around China. The correlation coefficients (R values) between the two data sets ranged from 0.68 to 0.92, signifying the ability of AIRS inversion data to represent temporal and spatial changes in surface CH4 concentrations. Additionally, China was classified into three regions (steps) based on terrain, and the changes in CH4 concentrations were assessed from three perspectives: spatial distribution, interannual variation, and seasonal variation. The results revealed that the CH4 concentration decreased with elevation along a topographic gradient, with high-value areas located in the first and second steps, corresponding to the eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, northern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Over 19 years, the average increase in CH4 concentration has ranged from 65 to 175 ppb. In addition, the CH4 concentrations were higher during summer and autumn and lower during spring and winter. Finally, a SARIMA model was used to predict the near-surface CH4 concentration trend in China over the next ten years, which indicated a continued seasonal increase.

Comprehensive surveillance of acute respiratory infections during the COVID-19 pandemic: a methodological approach using sentinel networks, Castilla y León, Spain, January 2020 to May 2022.

BackgroundSince 1996, epidemiological surveillance of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in Spain has been limited to seasonal influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and potential pandemic viruses. The COVID-19 pandemic provides opportunities to adapt existing systems for extended surveillance to capture a broader range of ARI.AimTo describe how the Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System of Castilla y León, Spain was rapidly adapted in 2020 to comprehensive sentinel surveillance for ARI, including influenza and COVID-19.MethodsUsing principles and methods of the health sentinel network, we integrated electronic medical record data from 68 basic surveillance units, covering 2.6% of the regional population between January 2020 to May 2022. We tested sentinel and non-sentinel samples sent weekly to the laboratory network for SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses and other respiratory pathogens. The moving epidemic method (MEM) was used to calculate epidemic thresholds.ResultsARI incidence was estimated at 18,942 cases per 100,000 in 2020/21 and 45,223 in 2021/22, with similar seasonal fold increases by type of respiratory disease. Incidence of influenza-like illness was negligible in 2020/21 but a 5-week epidemic was detected by MEM in 2021/22. Epidemic thresholds for ARI and COVID-19 were estimated at 459.4 and 191.3 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. More than 5,000 samples were tested against a panel of respiratory viruses in 2021/22.ConclusionExtracting data from electronic medical records reported by trained professionals, combined with a standardised microbiological information system, is a feasible and useful method to adapt influenza sentinel reports to comprehensive ARI surveillance in the post-COVID-19 era.

Angry birds calling: an advanced system of signalling aggression to moderate conflict in the common chiffchaff

Many animals produce vocal signals during agonistic interactions that convey their ability and motivation to escalate the conflict. Often, such disputes follow ritualized, sequential phases with increasing aggression, favouring the assessment of individuals' chances of winning. This allows for individuals to withdraw before getting involved in a serious fight. Birds are well known for the variety of information encoded in their vocalizations, sometimes including specific features that signal aggression. A particular case may be so-called ‘tret calls’ produced by chiffchaffs, Phylloscopus collybita, a song affix for which the communicative role is not well understood. Here, we describe the acoustic structure and use of tret calls during simulated conflicts using playback. Our results show that tret calls are a low-amplitude vocalization and that birds increased tret calling after playback stimulation, suggesting a role as an aggressive signal similar to soft song in other species. However, we did not find that the tret call rate predicted subsequent aggressive behaviour. Our analysis of song variation in response to playback suggested that birds respond to a simulated vocal competitor in two phases: a highly aggressive phase where syllable rate goes up, which is predictive of physical attack, while simultaneously tret call rate goes down, and a low-aggression phase, in which tret call rate goes up, while syllable rate returns to baseline levels. These stereotypic fluctuations in two acoustic features may be part of an advanced communication system to moderate aggression. Finally, our results show a seasonal increase in tret calling after birds arrive at their breeding grounds, which is in line with a role in territorial aggression. We also found a nonsignificant trend for more tret calls with increasing ambient noise levels, which may be due to increased stress and aggression under noisy conditions or reflect a masking avoidance strategy.

Seasonal Tanning-Induced Increases in Skin Pigmentation Do Not Affect Nitric Oxide-Mediated Vasodilation of the Cutaneous Microvasculature

Acute ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure reduces nitric oxide (NO)-dependent cutaneous vasodilation. Additionally, increased constitutive skin melanin concentrations are associated with reduced NO-dependent cutaneous vasodilation. However, the impact of seasonal tanning-induced increases in skin melanin concentration on NO-dependent cutaneous vasodilation has not been investigated. PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of seasonal tanning-induced increases in skin melanin on the NO-dependent cutaneous vasodilation response to local heating. We hypothesized that NO-dependent cutaneous vasodilation would be reduced in tanned skin relative to untanned skin. METHODS: Three intradermal microdialysis fibers were placed in the ventral upper arm (least sun exposed), ventral forearm (moderately sun exposed), and dorsal forearm (most sun exposed) of seven adults (33 ± 14 yrs; 4M/3F) with light-to-moderate constitutive skin pigmentation. Differences in sun exposure among the sites was confirmed using the melanin-index (M-index; an index of skin pigmentation), measured via skin reflectance spectrophotometry. Lactated Ringer’s solution was perfused through the microdialysis fibers while local heating to 42°C induced cutaneous vasodilation. After attaining a stable plateau in cutaneous blood flow, 15mM NG-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME; NO synthase inhibitor) was perfused at all sites to quantify NO-mediated vasodilation. Red cell flux was measured using laser-Doppler flowmetry (LDF). Cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC=LDF/mean arterial pressure) was calculated for each phase of the local heating response (i.e., baseline, initial peak, local heating plateau, post L-NAME plateau) and expressed as percent maximum (%CVCmax; 28mM sodium nitroprusside + 43°C local heating). RESULTS: M-index was highest (i.e., skin pigmentation was darkest) in the dorsal forearm (50.5 ± 11.8 a.u.) compared to the ventral forearm (37.5 ± 7.4 a.u.; p ≤ 0.03) and upper arm (30.2 ± 5.1 a.u.; p ≤ 0.001). There were no baseline (p ≥ 0.37), initial peak (p ≥ 0.22), post L-NAME plateau (p ≥ 0.12), or maximal CVC (p ≥ 0.23) differences among the three sites. Likewise, the magnitude of the local heating plateau was not different among the three sites (dorsal: 88±17%; ventral: 81±20%; upper: 90±12%; p ≥ 0.16), nor was NO-mediated vasodilation (dorsal: 59±15%; ventral: 54±13%; upper: 55±11.0%; p ≥ 0.79). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that, in contrast to the effects of acute UVR exposure or a constitutively dark skin pigmentation, seasonal tanning-induced increases in skin pigmentation do not alter NO-dependent cutaneous vasodilation responses to local heating. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2023 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA

Abstract A new set of CMIP6 data downscaled using the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) statistical method has been produced, covering central Mexico through southern Canada at 6-km resolution. Output from 27 CMIP6 Earth system models is included, with up to 10 ensemble members per model and 3 SSPs (245, 370, and 585). Improvements from the previous CMIP5 downscaled data result in higher daily precipitation extremes, which have significant societal and economic implications. The improvements are accomplished by using a precipitation training dataset that better represents daily extremes and by implementing an ensemble bias correction that allows a more realistic representation of extreme high daily precipitation values in models with numerous ensemble members. Over southern Canada and the CONUS exclusive of Arizona (AZ) and New Mexico (NM), seasonal increases in daily precipitation extremes are largest in winter (∼25% in SSP370). Over Mexico, AZ, and NM, seasonal increases are largest in autumn (∼15%). Summer is the outlier season, with low model agreement except in New England and little changes in 5-yr return values, but substantial increases in the CONUS and Canada in the 500-yr return value. One-in-100-yr historical daily precipitation events become substantially more frequent in the future, as often as once in 30–40 years in the southeastern United States and Pacific Northwest by the end of the century under SSP 370. Impacts of the higher precipitation extremes in the LOCA version 2 downscaled CMIP6 product relative to the LOCA downscaled CMIP5 product, even for similar anthropogenic emissions, may need to be considered by end-users.