Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Estimating the economic vulnerability of 2020–2099 storm flooding with sea level rise on Coastal Virginia

Estimating the economic impact of flooding is an essential element of flood risk management. Policy interventions to mitigate the impact of flooding must be balanced against the financial and economic costs of flooding. Using projections of sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080 and estimates of flooding damage that are equaled or exceeded 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year period, we investigate the financial costs of flooding across eight planning districts in Coastal Virginia. We briefly discuss the methodology to estimate the average annualized loss (AAL) given discrete events and likelihoods and how these AALs flow into the estimation of the net present value of flooding in Coastal Virginia. The Hampton Roads metropolitan area accounts for approximately 80.7% of estimated nominal losses currently, rising to 88.1% by 2080 due to sea level rise. This vulnerability is linked to poorly planned development, population growth, ground subsidence, and economic inequities. The present value of unmitigated flooding ranges from $20.0 billion to $58.7 billion in 2021 dollars, depending on the discount rate. Discounted economic impacts for unmitigated sea level rise could reach $82.9 billion for Coastal Virginia this century. The concentration of costs in Hampton Roads, which produces 20% of Virginia's GDP, underscores the need for targeted economic and security policies.

Warming could shift the phenological responses of benthic microalgae in temperate intertidal zones

Intertidal mudflats colonized by sediment-dwelling microphytobenthos deliver a wide range of ecosystem services. Here we simulate the response of microphytobenthos, located on a temperate tidal mudflat along the French Atlantic coast in Northwestern Europe, exposed to changes in light, temperature, and sea level conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Without sea level rise, microphytobenthos benefit from the balancing effect of net primary production fluctuations, experiencing an increase in winter and a decrease in summer. Under the worst emissions scenario, microphytobenthos bloom up to 14 days earlier in spring and 5 days later in fall, thereby extending the low-level microphytobenthos biomass period by an additional 3 weeks in summer. Sea level rise reduces light exposure leading to a pronounced decline in microphytobenthos under the medium-low emissions and worst emissions scenarios. We provide evidence that the anticipated warmer climate and sea level rise will have an impact on microphytobenthos, potentially triggering cascading effects across the entire food web and disrupting ecosystem services.

Monitoring Coastal Evolution and Geomorphological Processes Using Time-Series Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis: Application Between Cape Serrat and Kef Abbed, Northern Tunisia

The monitoring of coastal evolution (coastline and associated geomorphological features) caused by episodic and persistent processes associated with climatic and anthropic activities is required for coastal management decisions. The availability of open access, remotely sensed data with increasing spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, is promising in this context. The coastline of Northern Tunisia is currently showing geomorphic process, such as increasing erosion associated with lateral sedimentation. This study aims to investigate the potential of time-series optical data, namely Landsat (from 1985–2019) and Google Earth® satellite imagery (from 2007 to 2023), to analyze shoreline changes and morphosedimentary and geomorphological processes between Cape Serrat and Kef Abbed, Northern Tunisia. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was used to quantify the multitemporal rates of shoreline using two metrics: the net shoreline movement (NSM) and the end-point rate (EPR). Erosion was observed around the tombolo and near river mouths, exacerbated by the presence of surrounding dams, where the NSM is up to −8.31 m/year. Despite a total NSM of −15 m, seasonal dynamics revealed a maximum erosion in winter (71% negative NSM) and accretion in spring (57% positive NSM). The effects of currents, winds, and dams on dune dynamics were studied using historical images of Google Earth®. In the period from 1994 to 2023, the area is marked by dune face retreat and removal in more than 40% of the site, showing the increasing erosion. At finer spatial resolution and according to the synergy of field observations and photointerpretation, four key geomorphic processes shaping the coastline were identified: wave/tide action, wind transport, pedogenesis, and deposition. Given the frequent changes in coastal areas, this method facilitates the maintenance and updating of coastline databases, which are essential for analyzing the impacts of the sea level rise in the southern Mediterranean region. Furthermore, the developed approach could be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios to simulate the impacts of a higher future sea-level enhanced climate change.

The effects of climate change‐related risks on banks: A literature review

AbstractThis literature review describes the recent empirical literature in economics and finance focusing on how climate change‐related risks affect banks, with a particular emphasis on microeconomic evidence. The comparison of empirical estimates shows that many studies project limited estimates of damages for banks. For both loan and bond spreads, most estimates of the effect of climate change are below 50 bp. In comparison, studies on stock markets document responses that are more substantial. In real estate markets, there is evidence of price effects notably for flood risks associated with sea level rise. However, some studies indicate that climate risks could be underestimated. We note challenges related to the measurement of adaptation potential, non‐linear changes in hazards and responses, and the aggregation of effects across studies, markets, and bank portfolios.

The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades

The rise in globally averaged sea level—or global mean sea level—is one of the most unambiguous indicators of climate change. Over the past three decades, satellites have provided continuous, accurate measurements of sea level on near-global scales. Here, we show that since satellites began observing sea surface heights in 1993 until the end of 2023, global mean sea level has risen by 111 mm. In addition, the rate of global mean sea level rise over those three decades has increased from ~2.1 mm/year in 1993 to ~4.5 mm/year in 2023. If this trajectory of sea level rise continues over the next three decades, sea levels will increase by an additional 169 mm globally, comparable to mid-range sea level projections from the IPCC AR6.

Planetary health and mental health

Climate change is the greatest global health threat of the twenty-firstcentury. Greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting rise in average temperatures are directly linked to heatwaves, droughts, water and food shortages, extreme weather events, rising sea levels and migration movements as well as the loss of biodiversity and the alteration and degradation of ecosystems as we know them. Current estimates suggest that societies need to show much greater efforts to ensure that the global average temperature does not rise by more than 1.5 °C by 2029. Not only climate change but also other man-made factors, such as noise, light, particulate matter and plastics are threatening the health of the planet and therefore inevitably human health as well, both physical and mental health. Poorer planetary health also has an impact on human mental health. This article extends the DGPPN 2023 position paper on climate change and mental health to include the concept of planetary health. In particular, the normative dimension of the Canmore Declaration on Planetary Health, the concept of transdisciplinarity and specific calls for action are presented with their relevance to psychiatry, psychotherapy and mental health and the associations are graphically illustrated.

Validating the Climate Resiliency Framework for Road Projects in KPK, Pakistan

This study validates a recently developed framework aimed at assessing the climate resiliency of road projects, recognizing the increasing impact of climate change on infrastructure, especially transportation networks such as roads. The framework provides a standardized and systematic approach for evaluating how well road projects can withstand and adapt to climate change impacts, including challenges like flooding, extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels. Conducting the research through a case study approach, we applied the framework to three specific road projects: Drabo Road, Chino Road, and Shahi-Barawal Road. The results revealed the resiliency scores for each project—Drabo Road scored 55.5%, indicating a partially resilient status; Chino Road received a score of 47.9%, signifying an acceptable status with room for improvement, also classified as partially resilient; Shahi-Barawal Road obtained a score of 50.2%, placing it in an acceptable and partially resilient category. This investigation showcases the framework's effectiveness in identifying vulnerabilities and recommending adaptation measures. The research contributes to the development of a practical tool that can assist engineers, planners, and policymakers in making informed decisions regarding the design, construction, and maintenance of road infrastructure in the face of climate change. Ultimately, the goal is to enhance the overall resilience of road projects and minimize potential damage caused by climate change impacts.

Climate Change Drove the Decline in Yangtze Estuary Net Primary Production Over the Past Two Decades.

Net primary productivity (NPP) is highly sensitive to multiple stressors under progressive and intensifying climate change and anthropogenic impacts. The importance of understanding spatiotemporal distribution patterns and the associated driving factors that govern estuary NPP is paramount for regional carbon (C) budget assessments. Using a combined remote sensing and machine learning (ML) approach, the average NPP of the Yangtze Estuarine-offshore continuum (YEOC) was measured at 273.19 ± 21.26 mgC m-2 day-1 over the past two decades. Temporally, NPP exhibited a significant downward trend between 2002 and 2022. Climate factors (climate fluctuations, sea level rise, and discharge) drove phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a) while light conditions (PAR and Kd490) affected photosynthesis rates. Together, they can explain 65% of the NPP variation. Anthropogenic disturbances (i.e., damming and nutrient emissions) were not significant. Additionally, changes in NPP decreased phytoplankton C sequestration rates from 11.9 to 10.4 Tg C year-1, reducing the estuary's C sink capacity, which relies on biological C fixation. This study highlights the climate's influence on the spatiotemporal transformation of YEOC NPP while enhancing our understanding of the response of EOC C budgets to climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Burj Rashid: a tale of two tides – rising waters and changing traditions

PurposeThis paper delves into the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and practices of Burj Rashid, an ancient historical city on Egypt’s northern coast, which stands at the meeting point of the Nile’s western branch and the Mediterranean Sea. Burj Rashid boasts a strategic location and rich natural resources and has a long history of relationships between land, people, river, sea and climate change, serving as a model for residents’ adaptation to their ever-changing surroundings.Design/methodology/approachClimate studies have exposed the village’s vulnerability to climate and topographical hazards such as rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, decreasing precipitation, encroaching seas due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and high soil salinization. These factors pose a high risk of water scarcity, crop failure in the medium term, potential famine in the long term and declining fish populations, threatening fishing communities. To address these challenges, the Net Zero: Heritage for Climate Action project - launched by the International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property (ICCROM) and the First Aid and Resilience for Culture in Times of Crisis program, funded by Swedish Postcode - proposes a research and development methodology through a platform that weaves together heritage knowledge and climate science. The Egyptian Heritage Rescue Foundation has implemented a platform in Burj Rashid as an innovative site to study risks, vulnerabilities and capacities.FindingsThe project will explore root causes, identify risk scenarios and establish a stakeholder map to guide the development of mitigation strategies and resilience-building measures.Originality/valueBy harnessing the wisdom of TEK and integrating it with scientific knowledge, the project paves the way for innovative climate change adaptation strategies that ensure the long-term sustainability of Burj Rashid’s unique cultural heritage.

The Influence of Seawater on Fe(II)-Catalyzed Ferrihydrite Transformation and Its Subsequent Consequences for C Dynamics.

Short-range-ordered minerals like ferrihydrite often bind substantial organic carbon (OC), which can be altered if the minerals transform. Such mineral transformations can be catalyzed by aqueous Fe(II) (Fe(II)aq) in redox-dynamic environments like coastal wetlands, which are inundated with seawater during storm surges or tidal events associated with sea-level rise. Yet, it is unknown how seawater salinity will impact Fe(II)-catalyzed ferrihydrite transformation or the fate of bound OC. We reacted ferrihydrite with Fe(II)aq under anoxic conditions in the absence and presence of dissolved organic matter (DOM). We compared treatments with no salts (DI water), NaCl-KCl salts, and artificial seawater mixes (containing Ca and Mg ions) with or without SO42-/HCO3-. Both XRD and Mössbauer showed that NaCl-KCl favored lepidocrocite formation, whereas Ca2+/Mg2+/SO42-/HCO3- ions in seawater overrode the effects of NaCl-KCl and facilitated goethite formation. We found that the highly unsaturated and phenolic compounds (HuPh) of DOM selectively bound to Fe minerals, promoting nanogoethite formation in seawater treatments. Regardless of salt presence, only 5-9% of Fe-bound OC was released during ferrihydrite transformation, enriching HuPh relative to aliphatics in solution. This study offers new insights into the occurrence of (nano)goethite and the role of Fe minerals in OC protection in coastal wetlands.

A Review of Climate-Driven Threats to Recreational Water Users in Hawaii.

In Hawaii, impacts from climate change, such as sea-level rise and flooding, increased hurricanes and wildfires, and warmer temperatures, intersect with aging infrastructure, toxicities from the built environment, and pathogens to threaten the health of recreational ocean users via reduced water quality, severe weather and flooding, environmental degradation, and food systems impacts. An examination of climate-driven threats to water safety is a pertinent review of threats to coastal residents globally.

Are Beaches Losing Their Capacity to Receive Holidaymakers? The Case of Ofir, Portugal

Coastlines are suffering from the effects of erosive processes, the decrease in sediment supply, the rise in mean sea level, and the construction of coastal infrastructure and drainage works, which are further exacerbated by global climate change. The area of the Parque Natural do Litoral Norte (North Coast Natural Park) reveals worsening erosion rates and the transformations directly affect the natural resources that support tourism activities, particularly beach and nature tourism. As part of the CLICTOUR project, we have selected the coastline from Restinga de Ofir to Bonança Beach as a case study. The ESRI ArcGIS software and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) were used to quantify coastline migration and identify the impacts on beach morphology between 2010 and 2023. Based on this information, we calculated changes in carrying capacity and scenarios for visitor usage availability to ensure the protection of fauna and flora, as well as the safety of beachgoers. The results of the linear regression rate confirm the coastline has retreated during the period analyzed (2010–2023). The outcome of these dynamics is noticeable in the beach area, promoting its reduction in area and leisure quality. Considering climate change, this study shows the importance of developing resilience strategies for coastal territories that serve as traditional summer destinations.

Regional Mean Sea Level Variability Due to Tropical Cyclones: Insights from August Typhoons

This study investigates the interannual variations in regional mean sea levels (MSLs) of the northeast Asian marginal seas (NEAMS) during August, focusing on the role of typhoon activity from 1993 to 2019. The NEAMS are connected to the Pacific through the East China Sea (ECS) and narrow, shallow straits in the east, where inflow from the southern boundary (ECS), unless balanced by eastern outflow, leads to significant convergence or divergence, as well as subsequent changes in regional MSLs. Satellite altimetry and tide-gauge data reveal that typhoon-induced Ekman transport plays a key role in MSL variability, with increased inflow raising MSLs during active typhoon seasons. In contrast, weak typhoon activity reduces inflow, resulting in lower MSLs. This study’s findings have significant implications for coastal management, as the projected changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity due to climate change could exacerbate sea level rise and flooding risks. Coastal communities in the NEAMS region will need to prioritize enhanced flood defenses, early warning systems, and adaptive land use strategies to mitigate these risks. This is the first study to link typhoon frequency directly to NEAMS MSL variability, highlighting the critical role of wind-driven processes in regional sea level changes.

Antarctic ice-shelf meltwater outflows in satellite radar imagery: ground-truthing and basal channel observations

Abstract Ice shelves regulate the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet toward the ocean and its contribution to sea-level rise. Accurately monitoring the basal and surface melting of ice shelves is therefore essential for predicting the ice sheet's response to climatic warming. In this study, we utilize Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery combined with shipboard measurements of water temperature and salinity to investigate the presence of surficial meltwater plumes along the Antarctic coastline. Our approach reveals a strong correlation between areas of pronounced low radar backscatter extending from ice shelves and significant decreases in water temperature and salinity, suggesting meltwater-enriched ocean waters. We propose that the low radar backscatter signature of meltwater outflows is caused by stable stratification of the upper water column, driven by density contrasts from buoyant, low-salinity meltwater and surface current shear that reduce Bragg scattering waves. The resulting smooth water surfaces were observed adjacent to the surface expression of deep basal channels, documented in a helicopter survey along part of the Bellingshausen Sea ice edge. We present high-temporal resolution satellite radar as a tool for identifying meltwater release from beneath ice shelves, capable of all-weather, day-and-night imaging.

Remote Sensing and Assessment of Compound Groundwater Flooding Using an End-to-End Wireless Environmental Sensor Network and Data Model at a Coastal Cultural Heritage Site in Portsmouth, NH.

The effects of climate change in the forms of rising sea levels and increased frequency of storms and storm surges are being noticed across many coastal communities around the United States. These increases are impacting the timing and frequency of tidal and rainfall influenced compound groundwater flooding events. These types of events can be exemplified by the recent and ongoing occurrence of groundwater flooding within building basements at the historic Strawbery Banke Museum (SBM) living history campus in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Fresh water and saline groundwater intrusion within basements of historic structures can be destructive to foundations, mortar, joists, fasteners, and the overlaying wood structure. Although this is the case, there appears to be a dearth of research that examines the use of wireless streaming sensor networks to monitor and assess groundwater inundation within historic buildings in near-real time. Within the current study, we designed and deployed a three-sensor latitudinal network at the SBM. This network includes the deployment and remote monitoring of water level sensors in the basements of two historic structures 120 and 240 m from the river, as well as one sensor within the river itself. Groundwater salinity levels were also monitored within the basements of the two historic buildings. Assessments and model results from the recorded sensor data provided evidence of both terrestrial rainfall and tidal influences on the flooding at SBM. Understanding the sources of compound flooding within historic buildings can allow site managers to mitigate better and adapt to the effects of current and future flooding events. Data and results of this work are available via the project's interactive webpage and through a public touchscreen kiosk interface developed for and deployed within the SBM Rowland Gallery's "Water Has a Memory" exhibit.

Exploring Deep Learning Methods for Short-Term Tide Gauge Water Level Predictions

Accurate and timely water level predictions are essential for effective shoreline and coastal ecosystem management. As sea levels rise, the frequency and severity of coastal inundation events are increasing, causing significant societal and economic impacts. Predicting these events with sufficient lead time is essential for decision-makers to mitigate economic losses and protect coastal communities. While machine learning methods have been developed to predict water levels at specific sites, there remains a need for more generalized models that perform well across diverse locations. This study presents a robust deep learning model for predicting water levels at multiple tide gauge locations along the Gulf of Mexico, including the open coast, embayments, and ship channels, all near major ports. The selected architecture, Seq2Seq, achieves significant improvements over the existing literature. It meets the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) operational criterion, with the percentage of predictions within 15 cm for lead times up to 108 h at the tide gauges of Port Isabel (92.2%) and Rockport (90.4%). These results represent a significant advancement over current models typically failing to meet NOAA’s standard beyond 48 h. This highlights the potential of deep learning models to improve water level predictions, offering crucial support for coastal management and flood mitigation.

Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Products in the Province of Jawzjan (Case Study: Certain Villages in Sheberghan City)

A region's weather and climate patterns are impacted by climate change over an extended period of time. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, rising sea levels and other modifications to meteorological conditions are some of these changes. Numerous facets of existence, including the environment, economy, and human communities, may be significantly impacted by climate change. Significant repercussions of climate change are possible, particularly in the agricultural sector. The production of food crops may be impacted by these changes because agricultural goods are dependent on local climate and weather. Pests and plant diseases may also become more prevalent due to climate change. Accordingly, higher temperatures and changed precipitation patterns can foster the growth of pests and illnesses, which will lower agricultural yields. Investigating how climate change affects agricultural products in Sheberghan City, Jawzjan Province, is the goal of this study. A questionnaire was used in fieldwork to perform this study. Six communities inside Sheberghan City—Toka, Qowchin, Jalalabad, Seshanba, Nokar Abad, and Afghan Tapa—were given 100 questionnaires in all. Four different types of questionnaires were produced and designed for the survey portion of this study. Of the 100 responders, 26 worked as farmers, 37 as gardeners, 8 as teachers, and 29 as traders in agricultural products. Using the SPSS26 program, the research was analyzed. The results showed that agricultural goods are significantly impacted by climate change, highlighting the significance of agriculture and agricultural products in the economy. The research findings indicate that the utilization of contemporary technology, such as smart irrigation systems and smart systems, can be one of the elements in growing agricultural products, and that the development of climate-adaptive agricultural methods can boost agricultural products. Farmers' interest can also be raised by government encouragement and assistance. The general conclusion that can be drawn from looking at the aforementioned elements is that agricultural products have been impacted by climate change and the creation of farmers' techniques for adapting to it.

Application of otolith morphometrics in delineating population structure of Aphaniops stoliczkanus (Teleostei: Aphaniidae) in southern Iranian waters

AbstractWidely distributed Species in different geological and ecological environments often exhibit great intraspecific diversity. Aphaniops stoliczkanus (Day, 1872) is an endemic species of Middle East occurring over a vast geographic range in different basins. This species has been observed in freshwater, brackish water and hot sulphur springs; therefore, its populations are known to exhibit considerable morphological variation. In the present study, we have investigated the poorly studied populations of A. stoliczkanus of the Hormuz and Makran basins of Iran in terms of otolith morphology and morphometrics. According to the results, these populations can be divided into two distinct groups including east and west of the Strait of Hormuz. Our results also provide evidence that there is a relationship between otolith morphology and the environment, serving as environmental factors that may influence the formation of specific regions in the otolith shape. Despite the remarkable morphological similarities among otoliths in geographically close populations of Charak and Chiruyeh, our data purposed that geographically these populations have different dorsal tip shapes in their otolith. In comparison to the data from other studies, the otoliths of Qeshm Island appear to resemble the overall shape of otolith found in Oman very closely. However, it is believed that Qeshm Island population was separated from the Hormuz basin populations during the Holocene Sea level rise. Also, the outcomes of this study provide insights into the potential role of environmental factors in shaping intraspecific diversity and the migration patterns of this species within the Persian Gulf.

Parametric study for shear failure of bearing pads due to hurricane-induced wave loadings

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and rising sea levels due to climate change, presents significant challenges to coastal infrastructure. With 42% of bridges in the United States exceeding 50 years of age, which surpasses their intended service life, there is a pressing need to assess their structural integrity, especially in coastal regions. This study focuses on evaluating the structural performance of bearing pads in coastal bridges under hurricane-induced wave loadings. Utilizing a combination of physics-based models (PBM), nonlinear modal time history analysis, and numerical validation, the research examines the hysteresis response of eight distinct bearing pad configurations. The findings indicate that reinforced circular bearing pads exhibit significantly greater shear displacements compared to plain elastomeric pads, underscoring the critical influence of shape factors on shear response. Fragility functions developed in the study illustrate the probability of shear failure, with reinforced circular pads showing a 28% higher likelihood of exceedance compared to rectangular plain pads. These results highlight the necessity for advanced design methodologies specifically for bearing pads to enhance the resilience of coastal infrastructure against severe hydrodynamic forces induced by hurricanes.

Effects of climate change and extreme weather events on natural and archaeological landscapes in southwestern Puerto Rico

Recent archaeological fieldwork in the intertidal zone of southwestern Puerto Rico has revealed a unique landscape of ancient shell mounds (accumulations of marine shells deposited by prehistoric peoples). These mounds are, at present, protected from tidal inundation, storm surge, and storm-driven winds by a buffering arc of mangroves known as the Pitahaya Mangrove Forest (PMF). Concerns about the long-term health of these mangroves, and their continuing ability to shelter the shell mounds, motivated the current diachronic remote sensing study examining the effects of both long-term climatic factors (sea level rise, global climate change) and extreme weather events (droughts, hurricanes) on the recent and future health of the PMF. Ultimately, the analysis of NDVI change derived from multispectral satellite imagery, coupled with local climate and weather data and drone-based ground-truthing, revealed troubling trends in the health of the PMF that portend a rather grim future for both the mangroves and the unique ancient landscape they protect.