Sea Level Rise Risk Research Articles

Estimating the combined risks of sea level rise and storm surges using a numerical model: Application to Macao

The storm surges caused by tropical cyclones may lead to overtopping floods in low-lying coastal communities, which will be further exacerbated by sea level rise. In this study, a numerical model is developed that can simulate the two-dimensional surface flow and one-dimensional drainpipe flow simultaneously. Then this model is validated and applied to Macao Peninsula. The compound flood scenarios of storm surge and sea level rise are therefore forecasted, with storm surge return periods of 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-years, and sea level rises by 0 m, 0.5 m and 1.0 m. The overtopping floods caused by storm surges are mainly distributed in the west and northwest of Macao Peninsula. When the sea level rises by 1.0 m, the backflow occurs 2 h earlier than that does under the current sea level. Adding pumping station can reduce backflow and improve drainage efficiency significantly. The effectiveness of the drainage system during floods can be quantified using backflow coefficient and drainage efficiency coefficient, which both decrease as the storm tide level increases. In the worst-case scenario of 200-year-return-period storm surge and 1-m sea level rise, the flooding area accounts for 41.1% of the land area, and the population at risk reaches 68.4% of the total population. The storm-surge-prone area overlaps with densely populated area in western Macao Peninsula, where the effects of storm surge and sea level rise are intensified.

An Integrated PCA–AHP Method to Assess Urban Social Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise Risks in Tampa, Florida

Coastal flooding risks are increasing with the rise of sea level due to global climate change. Such risk presents different groups of residents with diverse vulnerability. Using a coastal city as the study area, this study quantitatively and qualitatively examines social vulnerability across different communities at risk of sea level rising. This study develops a novel social vulnerability assessment method that integrates principal component analysis (PCA) and analytical hierarchical process (AHP), inputting the advantages of each into factor analysis for social vulnerability quantification. Twenty-four socioeconomic factors are first grouped into four different themes. PCA is then performed to identify major components within each theme. We apply AHP to generate the weighting scheme for each theme. Therefore, the AHP-derived weights to those PCA components according to each theme are used to obtain an overall social vulnerability index. The thematic map of PCA–AHP SVI showed that minority communities with low income, mobile home, and unemployed populations aggregated in the East Tampa shore (over 69% of the total minority), compared with the West Tampa (31% of the total minority). Our findings provide insightful spatial information of the social vulnerability index (SVI) that allows decision makers to make optimal efforts to mitigate damages and unexpected impacts on different communities, especially those marginalized minorities due to sea level rising risks.

ГЛОБАЛЬНІ КЛІМАТИЧНІ КРИЗИ ТА КЛІМАТИЧНА МІГРАЦІЯ

The term “climate refugees” has been used since 1985, also known as climate or environmental migrants, as people who have been “forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently” due to significant environmental disruption. But the scope of the definition still raises some debate. Climate change is not only a threat, causing immediate damage to people and infrastructure, it is also a long-term danger that can slowly destabilize societies and economies. Over the past 30 years, the number of people living in coastal areas at high risk of sea level rise has increased from 160 million to 260 million, 90% of whom are from poor developing countries and small island states. This situation is exacerbated because climate risks are interconnected and can cause a domino effect. As global carbon emissions continue to rise, climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises and cycles of displacement around the world. More than 70% of the world's refugees and internally displaced people come from the most climate-vulnerable countries. They will be among the first to suffer as climate shocks and extreme weather conditions continue into 2023. Helping them prepare for these shocks and increase their resilience to climate change will be more important than ever. Countries and regions that are both climate hotspots and conflict-affected or host large numbers of forcibly displaced people include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Central Sahel, Mozambique, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Climate change is adding to the mass migration already underway to the world's cities, and this is becoming a critical issue worldwide. In 2022, the number of forcibly displaced people exceeded 100 million for the first time, with climate change displacing more people than conflict. Models show that for every degree of temperature rise, a billion people will be displaced. Over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people will have to move – you'll either be among them or host them. Climatic factors often drive local and global migration regardless of the nature and severity of global climate change. In developing countries, drought has rendered large tracts of land uncultivable or virtually unproductive, forcing people to move to cities where jobs are increasingly scarce and food is more expensive. Then emigration from the country is considered as the only viable solution. Thus, local climate problems led to international migration.

Building Flood Resilience Among Older Adults Living in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

This paper explores compounding challenges for older coastal populations due to accelerated sea level rise at the nexus of physical hazard exposure and place-based socioeconomic and health considerations. This study applies geospatial analysis to assess the spatial distribution of older adults (age 65+) and their socioeconomic characteristics in Miami-Dade County in Florida. Next, it uses logistic regression to evaluate the socioeconomic determinants of block groups with 20% or more of residents age 65 and older at 3 feet of sea level rise compared to the other block groups in Miami-Dade. The results show that this study area has an older population clustered in flood-prone locations along the shoreline. The block groups with more than 20% of older adults and sea level rise risk have higher homeownership and vacancy rates, a higher percentage of homes constructed before 1980, and more older individuals who live alone. This study identifies place-based compounding factors undermining the ability of older residents to adequately cope with accelerated sea level rise flooding in coastal urban locations. Namely, owning an older home in a declining neighborhood and living alone can trap older individuals in place and increase their flood risk.

Does Market Price Sea Level Rise Risk? Evidence from High-Tide Flooding

Does Market Price Sea Level Rise Risk? Evidence from High-Tide Flooding

A Literature Review of Climate-Related Coastal Risks in the Mediterranean, a Climate Change Hotspot

Direct and indirect impacts of climate change are alarming in the coastal areas of the world, including the Mediterranean coasts. Extreme events (such as marine storms, medicanes, etc.) are likely to increase the coastal risks in the region (e.g., erosion, flooding, and inundation), resulting in a significant socio-economic impact, loss of natural biodiversity and ecosystem services, and damage to cultural heritage along the affected coasts. Therefore, climate-related risk assessment procedures are crucial for the management and sustainable development of coastal areas. The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the literature on the assessment of both the long- and short- term effects of climate change on coastal Mediterranean areas. It emphasizes methods and techniques to evaluate coastal vulnerability and sea level rise risk. This paper presents an overview of relevant scientific literature on the matter with a focus on approaches used in addressing the issues on climate change, as well as the geographic distribution of papers on the topic, highlighting the main aspects addressed in different Mediterranean countries.

Current climate change impacts and risks reviewed in Africa by giving especial emphasis in Ethiopia: Short review

Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors in the world. Climate change represents a major threat to Africa. The climate change grave consequences of a temperature increase above 1.5°C, Rainfall patterns are disrupted, glaciers are disappearing and key lakes are shrinking. In all Africa in general, and east Africa in particular is the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts under all climate scenarios. Despite that Africa having contributed the least to global warming and having the lowest co2 emissions, the continent faces exponential collateral damage, posing systemic risks to its economies, infrastructure investments, water and food systems, public health, agriculture, and livelihoods, threatening to undo its modest development gains and slip into higher levels of extreme poverty. By 2030, 108-116 million people be exposed to sea level rise risk and Drought. Similarly Ethiopia faces numerous development challenges that exacerbate its vulnerability to climate change, including high levels of food insecurity and ongoing conflicts over natural resources. Climate resolvase projects solve problems of increases in temperature, erratic rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rain, drought and other extreme events. Therefore it is timely call to control and work on climate smart agriculture and adaptability practices that Climate change would have not negative impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. Thus the present reviews aims to point out climate impact and risk management with organizing publication from concerned scholars so that make easy for researchers, implementers and police makers working on climate resilient and mitigation as well as to support researcher for father gaze ring information about disaster of climate change.

Who defines atoll ‘uninhabitability’?

This paper argues that the concept of ‘uninhabitability’ in the context of sea level rise risk is culturally and socially experienced and open to multiple truth claims, with implications for what we call relational security. In reference to the atolls of Oceania, non-local knowledges of uninhabitability have coalesced into ostensible truths about the inevitable relocation of atoll people. Yet uninhabitability and habitability arguably remain contested signifiers, with open possibilities for conceptualisation and thus for planning for the trajectory from habitable to uninhabitable. Far from being neatly universalizable for environmental security studies or cognate fields such as adaptation science, the qualities that make a particular place acceptable to live in are culturally and historically specific, involving local knowledges, cosmologies and place attachments. Habitability is thus irreducible to material elements of human security such as housing, food and water. The concepts of habitability and uninhabitability need to be recognised in research and policy as relational, situated concepts, and questions must be asked about who can and should define habitability in particular places. We argue that climate-exposed atoll populations have the right to have their experience and knowledge of habitability - and their perceived thresholds of uninhabitability - central to science, law, policy and planning that seeks to address sea level rise risk. We introduce the idea of relational security among climate-exposed populations which may be advanced through the process of articulating and institutionalising both habitability and uninhabitability on their terms.

Intersection of Disaster Resilience and Cultural Heritage Preservation

Global warming is a constant threat to coastal communities and rising sea levels and increased flooding in these areas. Flooding contributes to the damage and loss of historically and culturally significant structures and buildings, which are an important component in strengthening community longevity and resilience. This study examines the ways world heritage cities mitigate disaster risk, specifically flood risk. It uses the city of Savannah, Georgia as a case study to examine how incorporating historic preservation into flood risk planning is a vital part of flood risk resilience. By examining existing flood maps, projected sea level rise risk areas, and subtropical storm flood patterns in relation to the locations of recorded historical and archaeological sites and structures, this study identifies historically significant African American sites and buildings mapped as low-risk for some flood risks, but high risk for other flood risks, which raises the need for more representation and equity in the protection and cultural representation of historically marginalized groups.

We’ll take Manhattan: Preserving an urban (Southern California) beach in the 21st century

The City of Manhattan Beach is updating its Local Coastal Program-Land Use Plan (LCP-LUP), a planning document that regulates development in the city’s coastal zone and establishes a long-range vision for the community. Before embarking on updating the LCP, the city and the community need to better understand coastal vulnerabilities with sea level rise, to analyze the physical and economic risks, and to implement actions to prepare and adapt to the impacts of sea level rise. The authors conducted a Sea Level Rise Risk, Hazards, and Vulnerability Assessment (ESA 2021b) and Adaptation Plan (ESA 2021a). As part of the Adaptation Plan, we compared a “no action scenario” with a potential adaptation scenario designed to mitigate future coastal hazard risks. The economic and fiscal impacts of the no action scenario were compared to the relative costs and benefits of the adaptation scenario. The analysis indicates that sea level rise and the resulting beach erosion may negatively impact the city of Manhattan Beach’s ability to provide visitors with adequate recreational capacity by mid-century. The analysis also indicates that Manhattan Beach and Los Angeles County will lose significant tax revenues without adaptation, approximately $107 million in transient occupancy taxes (TOTs) and $39 million in county (sales) taxes. Adding to beach capacity through dune restoration and nourishment would preserve $65 million in non-market value through 2100. Given these values, it is likely that nourishment or dune restoration would yield the most net benefits as adaptation strategy in the future.

Amplification of Flood Risks by the Compound Effects of Precipitation and Storm Tides Under the Nonstationary Scenario in the Coastal City of Haikou, China

In the context of climate change, coastal cities are at increased risk of extreme precipitation and sea level rise, and their interaction will aggravate coastal floods. Understanding the potential change of compound floods is valuable for flood risk reduction. In this study, an integrated approach coupling the hydrological model and copula-based design of precipitation and storm tides was proposed to assess the compound flood risk in a coastal city—Haikou, China. The copula model, most-likely weight function, and varying parameter distribution were used to obtain the combined design values of precipitation and storm tides under the nonstationary scenario, which were applied to the boundary conditions of the 1D-2D hydrological model. Subsequently, the change of the bivariate return periods, design values, and compound flood risks of precipitation and storm tides were investigated. The results show that the bivariate return period of precipitation and storm tides was reduced by an average of 34% under the nonstationary scenario. The maximum inundation areas and volumes were increased by an average of 31.1% and 45.9% respectively in comparison with the stationary scenario. Furthermore, we identified that the compound effects of precipitation and storm tides would have a greater influence on the flood risk when the bivariate return period is more than 50 years, and the peak time lag had a significant influence on the compound flood risk. The proposed framework is effective in the evaluation and prediction of flood risk in coastal cities, and the results provide some guidance for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.

Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas

Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.

Perceptions of Local Leaders Regarding Postdisaster Relocation of Residents in the Face of Rising Seas

Despite the growing literature on sea level rise (SLR), the current understanding of how SLR risks influence postdisaster relocation remains limited. This paper addresses this knowledge gap by examining how local leaders (i.e., public officials and community leaders) perceive: (a) resident relocation decisions in a disaster-affected community that is also vulnerable to SLR; and (b) the role of SLR in residents’ relocation decisions. Based on the case of Monroe County, Florida, which was affected by Hurricane Irma in 2017, our findings suggest that local leaders perceive residents’ relocation decisions as being driven by predisaster challenges that were exacerbated by conditions in the aftermath of the hurricane—specifically: the lack of affordable housing, low wages, and high cost of living. Leaders believe that SLR-related risks have little/no direct influence on relocation decisions; instead, they suggest that the community’s focus is on the next storm and community members’ short-term needs.

Should Swedish sea level planners worry more about mean sea level rise or sea level extremes?

Current coastal spatial planning in Sweden uses simple methods to account for how flood risks increase owing to sea level rise. Those methods, however, fail to account for several important aspects of sea level rise, such as: projection uncertainty, emission scenario uncertainty and time dependence. Here, enhanced methods that account for these uncertainties are applied at several locations along the coast. The relative importance of mean sea level rise and extreme events for flood risk is explored for different timeframes. A general conclusion for all locations is that, extreme events dominate the flood risk for planning periods lasting a few decades. For longer planning periods, lasting toward the end of the century, the flood risk is instead dominated by the risk of high sea level rise. It is argued that these findings are important for assessments of future flood risk, and that they should be reflected in coastal spatial planning.

Adapting wastewater treatment plants to sea level rise: A case study of Half Moon Bay, California

Wastewater treatment plants around the world are becoming increasingly at risk of sea level rise impacts as these facilities are typically located in low-lying areas to utilize gravity flow for influent (incoming sewage) and effluent (discharged treated sewage). As these risks become realized, treatment plant managers and decision-makers must know when and how to adapt their facilities so that this critical service goes uninterrupted. This research highlights the Sewer Authority Mid-Coastside (SAM) wastewater treatment plant in Half Moon Bay, California, as a case study of assessing vulnerability and analyzing adaptation alternatives with an approach that may be replicated for adaptation studies of other treatment plants. The vulnerability assessment is based on a worst-case greenhouse gas emissions scenario and corresponding sea level rise projection data from the California Ocean Protection Council and U.S. Geological Survey. Adaptation strategies are analyzed based on their likelihood of success considering the site-specific risks posed to the SAM plant. At only 15-20 feet elevation NAVD88 and surrounded by creeks, the SAM plant is currently at risk of groundwater inundation and creek flooding during storm events and is expected to be subject to tidal flooding with 6.6 feet of sea level rise and an annual storm event as soon as the year 2080. Nature-based solutions for sea level rise adaptation are both strongly preferred by regulatory agencies and more suitable for the SAM plant due to the surrounding sensitive habitat, including the riparian corridors, dune scrub, and coastal marsh. A phased adaptation approach will be most successful for addressing short- and long-term risks of sea level rise, with an ultimate recommendation for managed retreat of the plant to avoid inevitable flooding impacts and accommodate future sewage treatment capacity needs.

Sea Level Rise and City-Level Climate Action

Background: Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Rising sea levels are one particularly concerning manifestation of this and many of the world’s largest cities are vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, urban climate adaptation and mitigation policies are increasingly important to protect population health. Objectives: This study aimed to determine whether being at risk of SLR was associated with city-level climate action. It also aimed to assess the wider drivers of climate action in cities, in order to guide ongoing efforts to motivate climate action, assess public health preparedness and identify research gaps. Methods: This is an ecological cross-sectional study using secondary data from CDP, the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), World Bank, United Nations Cities and EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database). The study population consisted of 517 cities who participated in CDP’s 2019 Cities Survey. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to assess the relationship between risk of SLR and city-level climate action, and secondly, to assess the wider determinants of city-level climate action. Results: There was evidence of crude associations between risk of SLR and three outcome variables representing city-level climate action. However, after adjusting for confounding variables, these crude associations disappeared. World region, national income status and urban population were shown to be stronger predictors of city-level climate action. Conclusion: It is concerning for population health that there is no association demonstrated between risk of SLR and climate action. This could indicate a lack of awareness of the risks posed by SLR within urban governance. To fulfil their health protection responsibilities, it is essential that public health professionals take a leading role in advocating for climate action.

A locally relevant framework for assessing the risk of sea level rise under changing temperature conditions: Application in New Caledonia, Pacific Ocean

Sea level rise is a key feature in a warmer world and its impact can be seen globally. Assessing climate change-induced sea level rise, therefore, is urgently needed particularly in small island nations, where the threats of sea level rise are immediate, but the level of preparedness is low. Here, we propose a stochastic simulator to link changes in Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) to Mean Annual Sea Level (MASEL) at the local scale. This is through what-if scenarios that are developed based on the association between local temperature and sea level. The model can provide a basis for a bottom-up impact assessment by addressing limitations of applying large-scale projections in small islands and facilitating the accessibility of the impact assessment to stakeholders. For this purpose, we decompose the MAT and MASEL signals into their linear trend and autocorrelation components as well as independent and identically distributed residual terms. We further explore the association between trend and residual terms of MAT and MASEL. If such dependencies exist, scenarios of sea level can be synthesized based on the trend and residual terms of temperature. We use linear regression to link trends of MAT and MASEL, and copulas to formulate dependencies between residuals. This allows stochastic sampling of MASEL conditioned to trend and random variability in MAT. This framework is used for retrospective and prospective simulations of MASEL in Nouméa, the capital city of New Caledonia, the Pacific. We set up six different model configurations for developing the stochastic sampler, each including various parametric options. By selecting the best setup from each configuration, we provide a multi-model stochastic projection of MASEL, assuming the persistence in current long-term trend in MAT and MASEL. We demonstrate how such simulations can be used for a risk-based impact assessments and discuss sources of uncertainty in future projections.

Risk communication and capacity-building: A case study on framing CBA strategies of artisanal fishing communities to sea-level rise using BASIEC

Accelerated rise in sea levels due to changing climate threatens the communities located in the low-lying coastal regions. Small-scale fishing communities such as artisanal fishing communities are vulnerable to the risk of sea-level rise. Climate services are considered to be effective instruments to communicate such risks and enhance the capacity of local communities. However, the application of climate services to build capacities of artisanal fishing communities remains sparse. In this context, this study attempted to address the risk of rising sea levels and building capacity of artisanal fishing communities of Ennore region in Chennai situated on the east coast of India, as a case study. The study has addressed the following research questions: What sea-level rise risk information is required? How should it be communicated effectively? and how efficiently climate services can be utilized to enhance the capacities of communities to rising sea levels? BASIEC coastal climate service framework methodology has been adopted. Sea-level rise risk campaign and adaptation workshops were served as climate service platforms to create awareness through narratives and visualization techniques as risk information, communication and education strategies. By adopting participatory techniques such as citizen science and pair-wise ranking methods, the study has identified and prioritized community-based adaptation strategies to sea-level rise. As a climate service, this case study provides a model to communicate the sea-level rise risk and build capacities of artisanal fishing communities in adaptation decision-making. The approach and methodology of this study are valuable for facilitating climate services to empower coastal communities.

Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit

Abstract We show that lenders charge higher interest rates for mortgages on properties exposed to a greater risk of sea level rise (SLR). This SLR premium is not evident in short-term loans and is not related to borrowers’ short-term realized default or creditworthiness. Further, the SLR premium is smaller when the consequences of climate change are less salient and in areas with more climate change deniers. Overall, our results suggest that mortgage lenders view the risk of SLR as a long-term risk and that attention and beliefs are potential barriers through which SLR risk is priced in residential mortgage markets.

Evaluation of flexibility in adaptation projects for climate change

Climate change adaptation inherently entails investment decision-making under the high levels of uncertainty. To address this issue, a single fixed large investment can be divided into two or more sequential investments. This reduces the initial investment cost and adds flexibility about the size and timing of subsequent investment decisions. This flexibility enables future investment decisions to be made when further information about the magnitude of climate change becomes available. This paper presents a real option analysis framework to evaluate adaptations including flexibility to reduce both the risk and uncertainty of climate change, against increasing coastal flooding due to sea-level rise as an example. The paper considers (i) how to design the sequence of adaptation options under growing risk of sea-level rise, and (ii) how to make the efficient use of flexibility included in adaptations for addressing uncertainty. A set of flexibilities (i.e. wait or future growth) are incorporated into single-stage investments (i.e. raising coastal defence from 2.5 mAOD to 3.5mAOD or 4.0 mAOD) in stages so that multiple-stage adaptations with different heights are created. The proposed method compares these sequentially growing adaptations in economic terms, including optimisation, providing additional information on the efficiency of flexible adaptation strategies given the uncertainty of climate change. The results from the evaluation enable decision-makers to identify long-lasting robust adaptation against the uncertainty of climate change.