Should Swedish sea level planners worry more about mean sea level rise or sea level extremes?

Abstract

Current coastal spatial planning in Sweden uses simple methods to account for how flood risks increase owing to sea level rise. Those methods, however, fail to account for several important aspects of sea level rise, such as: projection uncertainty, emission scenario uncertainty and time dependence. Here, enhanced methods that account for these uncertainties are applied at several locations along the coast. The relative importance of mean sea level rise and extreme events for flood risk is explored for different timeframes. A general conclusion for all locations is that, extreme events dominate the flood risk for planning periods lasting a few decades. For longer planning periods, lasting toward the end of the century, the flood risk is instead dominated by the risk of high sea level rise. It is argued that these findings are important for assessments of future flood risk, and that they should be reflected in coastal spatial planning.