Impact Of Scenarios Research Articles

Situational analysis on porcine diseases of priority to pig industry: methods for biosecurity improvement in the Russian Federation holdings

The analysis of the situation on management of main epizootic threats significant for pig industry in the Russian Federation was carried out. The features and effectiveness of various biosecurity measures used in pig holdings and possible ways for their improvement were examined. Options for improvement of biosecurity measures in Russian pig holdings and development of the systems in the Russian Federation having favorable effect on the population protection were discussed focusing on four target aspects related to infection introduction and spread routes: isolation of the population from external sources of threats (elimination of probable environmental impact scenarios); isolation of the population from internal sources of threats (elimination of probable impact scenarios during production process); isolation of the pig population or pig farming system from the human factor impact (elimination of possible scenarios of human factor impact on the population); isolation of the population from the conditions under which the threat potential is manifested (changing of conditions). The analysis results were presented graphically in the form of a schematic diagram“Sources of threats to biosecurity systems and measures aimed at these sources for the protected population creation in pig industry”. Based on the discussion results, automation and digitalization of all processes in pig industry, generation of genetically modified pigs not susceptible to the most significant pathogens such as African swine fever, classical swine fever, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome viruses and their use for production purposes, further research and implementation of integrated technological solutions for feed sanitation have been concluded to be the evolutionarily significant ways for effective pig farming intensification in the Russian Federation.

Impact characteristics of S2-glass fibre/FM94-epoxy composites under high and cryogenic temperatures: Experimental and numerical investigation

The aerospace industry uses glass fibre reinforced polymer (GFRP) composites to manufacture structural and non-structural parts of an aircraft as they possess superior strength to weight ratio and exceptional corrosion resistance. Commercial aircraft operate in a very wide temperature ranges from −54 to 55 °C. Potential GFRP laminates are susceptible to impact during aircraft operation, and the temperature at impact governs the nature of damage and failure mechanisms. As a result, the current study focuses on examining how aeronautical GFRP composites behave in various temperature environments that are encountered during high- and low-altitude operations. Using S2-glass fibre/FM94-epoxy unidirectional prepreg, GFRP plates were created. Drop weight impact tests were conducted at ambient (25 °C), high (50, 75, 100 °C), and low (−25, −55 °C) temperatures, as well as at various impact energies (75, 150, 225 J). The damages were assessed visually, along with their sizes. Each testing scenario's impact parameters, including the impact load, deflection, and energy absorption, were also examined. In Abaqus/Explicit, a coupled temperature-displacement numerical model was created to predict the onset of stress and damage. According to experimental findings, GFRP plates are stiffer and show less apparent damage at cryogenic temperatures (∼15−34 % lower displacement) than they do at other temperatures. Furthermore, it was observed that the matrix softens at high temperatures, showing larger damaged area at entry but with less obvious damage and increasing energy absorption, while semi-perforation occurred under cryogenic temperatures at entry with smaller damaged area. A strong correlation is shown between the experimental and FE data, confirming the capability of FE models to predict impact damage and deflections at different temperatures in the future.

Assessing the Environmental and Health Impacts of Thermal Waste and Landfill-Based Waste Management

According to Presidential Regulation No. 35 of 2018, which focuses on accelerating the development of waste-to-energy projects, Denpasar City in Bali has been identified as one of the key Indonesian cities for implementing these projects. The daily waste generation in Denpasar City is estimated at 750 tons. The city's sanitation strategy outlines that 20% of this waste will be reduced at its source, while the remaining 80% is managed at the final treatment site. This study employs the Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach to evaluate the environmental impacts of traditional landfilling and various thermal waste treatment methods. The findings reveal that gasification (Scenario 2) has the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP), with 779,759 kg CO2 equivalent emitted, indicating its superiority in reducing greenhouse gases. In contrast, landfilling (Scenario 1) is the least favorable, with a GWP of 2,885,770 kg CO2 equivalent and a significant cancer risk due to hexavalent chromium emissions estimated at 1,634,050 kg equivalent. These results underscore the health and environmental hazards of landfilling. Further, the study delves into each treatment scenario's impact on acidification, eutrophication, global warming potential, and photochemical oxidation.

The nexus between pressures and ecosystem services in floodplains: New methods to integrate stakeholders’ knowledge for water quality management in Serbia

Floodplains provide a wide range of interdependent ecosystem services (ES) that more or less correlate with water quality. Any change to one component of the ecosystem can have a ripple effect on parts of or on the whole system. We tested a methodology that integrates collaborative learning and creation processes with stakeholders aimed at (1) identifying causal relationships between water quality-related ecosystem services of floodplains themselves and between ES and the pressures they encounter by using fuzzy cognitive mapping, and (2) visualizing “what-if” scenarios of the potential impact of changing pressures on selected ES, as the authors’ contribution to extending the methodology. The approach is tested on the case study of the Koviljsko-petrovaradinski rit floodplain in Serbia. Ten ES and five pressures selected as most important by stakeholders were used to create the sophisticated fuzzy cognitive model and assess the influence of pressures’ increase or decrease on given ES. Using the model, ideal (all pressures minimized) and optimal (stakeholders defined realistic level of reduction of pressures) scenarios were analyzed and mapped for the ‘Habitat provisioning’ service. The impact of maximization of each particular pressure on ES is assessed as well. The results indicate that ‘Wastewater‘ has the greatest negative influence on all ES (particularly on ‘Plant biomass grassland’); it is followed by ‘Land take’ and ‘Drought events’. If wastewater pressure is reduced to the minimum, the results obtained are similar to the optimal scenario. The proposed approach facilitates a comprehensive assessment of the floodplain’s potential to provide ES under different pressures and enhances stakeholders’ integrated understanding of the complex floodplain ecosystem and its services. This, in turn, together with the visualization of the different scenarios, enables more effective decision-making and management strategies for floodplains.

Bouncing Dynamics of Drops' Successive Off-Center Impact.

Bouncing dynamics of a trailing drop off-center impacting a leading drop with varying time intervals and Weber numbers are investigated experimentally. Whether the trailing drop impacts during the spreading or receding process of the leading drop is determined by the time interval. For a short time interval of 0.15 ≤ Δt* ≤ 0.66, the trailing drop impacts during the spreading of the leading drop, and the drops completely coalesce and rebound; for a large time interval of 0.66 < Δt* ≤ 2.21, the trailing drop impacts during the receding process, and the drops partially coalesce and rebound. Whether the trailing drop directly impacts the surface or the liquid film of the leading drop is determined by the Weber number. The trailing drop impacts the surface directly at moderate Weber numbers of 16.22 ≤ We ≤ 45.42, while it impacts the liquid film at large Weber numbers of 45.42 < We ≤ 64.88. Intriguingly, when the trailing drop impacts the surface directly or the receding liquid film, the contact time increases linearly with the time interval but independent of the Weber number; when the trailing drop impacts the spreading liquid film, the contact time suddenly increases, showing that the force of the liquid film of the leading drop inhibits the receding of the trailing drop. Finally, a theoretical model of the contact time for the drops is established, which is suitable for different impact scenarios of the successive off-center impact. This study provides a quantitative relationship to calculate the contact time of drops successively impacting a superhydrophobic surface, facilitating the design of anti-icing surfaces.

Will Democracy Survive Climate Change?

In this essay, we explore the relationship between democracy and climate change. Using environmental sociology and related fields as a theoretical lens, we explore two possible and contrasting scenarios of the climate crisis's sociopolitical impact. The first scenario presents that democracy is not well‐equipped to deal with climate change. The increasing pervasiveness and intensity of climate change challenges our democratic system, ultimately leading to its demise and the rise of authoritarianism around the world. In the second scenario, we argue that not only is democracy the most ideal type of governance for tackling climate change, but climate change can revive democracy in an era of rising populist, right‐wing politics. We conclude by discussing several of the conditions required to lead to one or the other scenario.

Modern and Projected Characteristics of the Seasonal Cycle of Ice Cover in the Russian Arctic Seas

The characteristics of the sea ice conditions in the seas of the Russian Arctic during the period of satellite measurements were studied, and quantitative estimates of their changes in the second half of the 21st century were obtained based on the results of the CMIP6 climate model ensemble using non-mitigation and moderate mitigation scenarios of anthropogenic impact, SSP585 and SSP245, respectively. It has been revealed that the dates of closing (DOC) of the sea ice cover and the length of the open water season (LOWS) are in general successfully reproduced by an ensemble of models. It is shown that DOC will be observed on the average about one month and ten days later under SSP245 scenario and two months later under the SSP585 scenario in 2061–2080 compared to period 1981–2020. At the same time, the increase of LOWS is more than 2.5 months under SSP245 scenario and almost four months under the SSP585 scenario. The most significant changes in DOC are expected in the northern parts of the Barents and Kara seas and in the northwestern part of the Laptev Sea: 2–2.5 months and 2.5–3 months later for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively.

Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Abstract. On 18 September 2020, Medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece, resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave–current model to an unstructured mesh, representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty in modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed an ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localized at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves, highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model and multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.

Assessment of Future Climate and Kharif Paddy Yields using Ceres-Rice in the State of Andhra Pradesh

Climate change considerably impacts water needs for agricultural production, particularly in paddy crops (Oryza Sativa). The paddy crop response is uncertain and also heterogeneous due to climate change. Climate variables rainfall and temperature directly impact crop productivity. A precise understanding of crop yields is required for agricultural production management to plan sustainable food demand in the future at the state level. The climate change scenario's impact on rice yield at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was assessed in Andhra Pradesh and presented in this paper. The use of representative concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in projections made by the Global Climate Model (GCM) were downscaled for mid-century (2048-2078) using statistical tools. In this study, the Cropping System Model (CSM) and Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) modules for rice, as part of the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) package, were utilized. The use of the Regional Crop Yield Estimation System (RCYES) for the Cropping System Model (CSM) within the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) was facilitated through Python in this study. It is observed that rainfall will decrease during winter and pre-monsoon seasons related to the baseline period (1988–2018) for RCP 8.5. From July to October, there was a significant increase in rainfall. The most considerable change in the rain was 50.7 mm in September. A notable variation between the maximum and minimum temperatures of 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius in June and April respectively. Rainfall is expected to increase in Anantapur, Kurnool and Nellore districts during the mid-century 2040's. The correlation between the baseline and DES mean yield was 0.87, with a maximum yield of 0.86 and a minimum yield of 0.82. Decrease paddy yields by up to 10.7% in West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Nellore and Prakasam districts. At the same time, an increase in paddy yields up to 9.8% is anticipated in Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, East Godavari, Anantapur, Chittoor, Kadapa, and Kurnool. In contrast, a maximum decrease of 189.9 mm of rainfall is expected in the Vizianagaram district. These results could assist in devising adaptation measures to reduce the negative effect of climate change on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh.

Simulation of an emergency situation of a digital architecture object

The article considers information modeling an emergency impact in the study of the stability of a digital architecture building to progressive collapse with the help of a local destruction simulator using the finite element method. A non-linear processor was used, the calculations were performed by the step-iterative method with automatic step selection. When calculating a digital architecture building for progressive collapse, a technique in a quasi-static formulation was used. Measures were developed to effectively counter the emergency. Since the placement of stiffness floors in the current regulatory documentation is advisory in nature, the need to install outrigger floors in relation to a digital architecture building was studied. The concept of a building of digital architecture of a complex shape in the plan was developed. To determine the most loaded rod element of the calculation model, the calculation of the frame of a unique building was performed at the stage of normal operation. At the 2nd stage, this element was switched off from work, and a computational model was obtained for simulating an emergency. As a result of a series of numerical experiments, taking into account various scenarios of emergency impact on the frame of a digital architecture building, a constructive scheme of a unique building with outrigger floors was developed. The unique building resulting from shaping will have a low weight skeleton, taking into account the use of innovative materials. The collaboration of digital technologies and innovative materials will allow the construction industry to move to a completely new level of development.

Waste management strategies effects on GHG emission: Case study of Serbia

Landfilling is a dominant method of waste management in most developing countries. Moreover, a significant quantity of waste has been disposed on open dumps and unmanaged disposal sites. Landfill gas (LFG) can be considerable source of GHG emissions, as it consists of 50 % methane and 50 % carbon dioxide. Republic of Serbia is a developing country. Its waste management legislation is based on EU legislation. In the first decade of 2000s a set of laws was passed in this area. Unfortunately, the majority of goals were not fulfilled. An updated version of Waste management program is active since 2022. In Serbia, 2.95 million tons of waste is generated every year. It is estimated that 15-20 % is disposed on dumps, while 80 % is collected and disposed on the landfills. Waste treatment does not exist. Recycling rate is a very low, around 15%. Different waste management scenarios of impact on GHG emissions have been analysed. The analysis was performed using the software “Tool for Calculating Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in Solid Waste Management (SWM-GHG calculator)” developed by the German IFEU (ger. Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg). The base scenario describes the current situation. Scenarios 1 and 2 describe goals set for 2025 and 2030 by Waste management program in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2022 - 2031. Scenario 3 describes best case scenario, with fully functional modern waste management system. The analysis includes several parameters, such as landfill type, recycling rate, LFG collection efficiency and use of waste incineration technology.

Architecture of Thymus L. (Lamiaceae) species of Asia

The application of the architectural approach makes it possible to determine the features of the morphological structure of plants and their changes when modeling scenarios of environmental impact on the structure of plants. Using an architectural approach, 56 species from the genus Thymus, distributed in Siberia, Primorsky Region and Central Asia, were analyzed. For the first time, within the framework of this approach, an original method of distinguishing an architectural unit in the structure of dwarf shrubs and dwarf subshrubs has been developed. The architectural unit is a branched sympodial axis and has in its composition lateral sympodial axes of n+1 order, formation shoots, branching shoots, ephemerous shoots. It is established that the architectural unit is unchanged in all studied Asian species. The wide distribution of species and their development of contrasting habitat conditions is due to the variety of sympodial axes and shoots that are part of the architectural unit. Depending on the method of axis growth, architectural units with basally and acrosympodially increasing axes are distinguished. They determine the formation of dwarf shrub and dwarf subshrub. According to the direction of growth of the axes, architectural units are distinguished: orthotropic, plagiotropic and mixed type. It has been established that the structure of mature individuals of Thymus is formed due to the repeated repetition of the same or different architectural units. There are 3 variants of the combination of such architectural units in the structure of dwarf shrubs and 4 in the structure of dwarf subshrubs. It is shown that each of the combination variants determines the type of biomorph (monocentric, sparse polycentric, dense polycentric) and depends on the conditions of the ecotope. The revealed modifications of the architectural unit and their combinations determine the development strategy of dwarf shrubs and dwarf subshrubs of Thymus species in the development of Asian conditions.

Framework for spatial incident-level wildfire risk modelling to residential structures at the wildland urban interface

Understanding wildfire impacts on structures in wildland urban interface (WUI) communities is fundamental for emergency response and mitigation planning to reduce potential social and economic losses. The magnitude of structures loss determines the direct economic costs for re-building, indirect economic losses due to evacuation and disruption of economic activities as well as shelter needs. This paper presents a framework for the development and implementation of incident-level wildfire impact assessment of WUI residential structures including the following successive components: hazard, inventory, exposure, and impact. The hazard model generates spatial and temporal distribution of fire intensity for wildfire event scenarios; the inventory model provides spatial pattern of exposed structures; the exposure model estimates the fire intensity at WUI locations; whereas the impact model evaluates the structures loss by applying newly developed empirical response functions represented as the relationship between fire intensity, distance from forest edge and expected proportion of burned structures. A case study application of the proposed framework is presented for loss assessment of structures in a WUI community of the northern boreal forest of Canada. The proposed framework is particularly useful to the public safety community for conducting what-if scenarios of wildfire impact in support of emergency and mitigation planning.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Approaches to Control Invasive Populations: A Conceptual Model Development for the Signal Crayfish

Invasive crayfish are among the major threats to freshwater ecosystems, with the signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus, being one of the most successful crayfish invaders in Europe. Approaches to invasive crayfish control range from manual and physical to biological and biocidal control methods. However, all of these approaches have their drawbacks and have limited efficacy. Among traditional approaches with minimal impacts on environment and non-target species, manual control via trapping is the most frequently applied. More innovative approaches comprise, among others, usage of sterile male release technique, whose efficacy in the field is yet to be fully tested, especially how it combines with more traditional approaches. A good alternative to costly and logistically challenging field comparisons of these approaches and their combinations is population modeling. Population models can integrate all relevant species-specific biological and ecological information and can be applied to identify management scenarios of highest impact on invasive crayfish abundances. In this study, we developed a conceptual population model of the invasive P. leniusculus following the Pop-GUIDE framework. In addition, we expanded on the framework to increase its applicability to other fields beyond environmental risk assessment. Finally, we discuss potential application of the model and its future use as a management tool.

The Effectiveness of Master Plans: Case Studies of Biologically Active Areas in Suburban Zones

Sustainable development on a local scale requires well-functioning instruments in the spatial planning system. Any weakness in the planning system may result in forms of spatial development that are socially, environmentally or economically disadvantageous. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine whether master plans and land development monitoring in the Polish system are effective instruments in shaping sustainable spatial development. The factor analyzed was the share of a biologically active area and four villages located near a regional city were analyzed. Data from master plans, cadaster and orthophoto maps were used in this study. Verification of land use made it possible to evaluate whether the properties meet the provisions of spatial planning documents. In each of the analyzed villages, properties that do not meet the provisions of master plans were identified. In one of the villages, more than half of the properties had a smaller share of biologically active areas than permitted by the local law. The research also analyzed alternative scenarios of the potential impact of the application of permanent vegetation on sealed surfaces. These results showed that using green roofs, for example, can significantly reduce the problem of local laws being broken. The results quantitatively confirm that the provision of master plans in the Polish system are not effective tools in regulating land development.

Economic feasibility of in-motion wireless power transfer in a high-density traffic corridor

Electricity is expected to become a dominant power source in the transportation sector, but under a stationary recharging model, electric powered vehicles still suffer some disadvantages relative to conventional vehicles. Recent developments in wireless power transfer (WPT) technology can enable an alternative vehicle recharging model wherein power is supplied to vehicles while they are moving, mitigating the need for charging stops and high-capacity on-board energy storage. One of the greatest concerns associated with dynamic WPT is that the required infrastructure costs would be prohibitively high; however, the life-cycle costs and benefits of such a system have been under-researched. In this work, we apply a systems-level assessment to a case study of a WPT charging system located on the densely trafficked I-710 corridor in Los Angeles, California. Detailed cost estimates for electronics and implementation, high-fidelity energy consumption modeling, and survey-derived adoption projections are applied to evaluate scenarios of economic feasibility and environmental impact. Results show that a “1st-of-a-kind” system can achieve a payback in 20 years while maintaining operating cost advantages relative to petroleum fueling. System economics are shown to improve substantially with “nth-of-a-kind” capital costs. Discussion focuses on the effect of uptake trajectory on economic viability and detailed economics outcomes for light duty and heavy duty vehicles. • WPT roadway usage by both LDVs and HDVs improves system economics. • High utilization enables economical 1st-of-a-kind system. • Mature system achieves 20-year payback and driver cost savings (LDV: 58%; HDV: 37%). • Drastic emissions reductions provide non-monetized societal benefit.

Влияние безусловного базового дохода на сферу занятости населения в оценках российских экспертов

The issue of universal basic income (UBI) has been gaining importance due to the growth of precarious employment, unemployment and inequality in the context of the development of digital technologies, especially considering the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences. The article first presents the generalised and systemised reasoned opinions of Russian experts on UBI in order to examine its potential impact on employment. The initial research data resulted from a survey of different groups of Russian experts conducted by the authors. This information was supplemented by the results of various mass surveys. It was revealed that a significant part of Russian experts have concerns that UBI can negatively affect work incentives and labour supply. The systematisation of expert assessments allowed the research to create scenarios of the potential impact of UBI on population employment and work incentives, formal and informal employment, the ratio between paid and unpaid work, working and free time, the quality of leisure time. The study findings can be used as information and analytical support for the state policies aimed at improving the level and quality of life of the population, as well as making decisions on the appropriateness of UBI tools (including in Russia). Future research will examine in detail the impact of universal basic income on the labour market parameters, taking into account socio-demographic factors.

МЕХАНІЗМ РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ ДИСПРОПОРЦІЙ У РОЗВИТКУ РЕГІОНІВ УКРАЇНИ: ОНОВЛЕННЯ ПІДХОДІВ ДО РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ

The article reveals the need to implement a mechanism for regulating of disparities on a new basis, which is caused by the violation of the established structure of socio-economic sphere of the regions as a result of military actions in Ukraine. Its idea is to prevent excessive growth of disparities and to effectively use disparities that are not of a dangerous nature. The components of the disparity regulation mechanism (algorithm for determining of disparities, their evaluation and interpretation, modeling of their dynamics) are determined. The general principles and tools for the implementation of the mechanism for regulating regional development disparities in Ukraine are outlined. It is shown that the taking into account the structural changes in the socio-economic sphere of region and the growing disproportionality of regions forms the basis for ensuring the dynamism and flexibility of such a mechanism. It is highlighted that based on the combination of regulation of investment activity, strategic planning of regions and budget planning in the region, a practical mechanism of influence on the size of disparities is being formed. Using a set of proposed measures to influence disproportionality, it is possible to achieve predetermined indicators of the size of disparities and ensure regulation of regional development disparities. It was revealed that the effective functioning of the disparity regulation mechanism makes it possible to develop scenarios and strategies for disparity regulation in the shortand long-term dimensions. It is implemented through the scenarios of regulation of disparities (basic, moderate, enhanced and shock impact). On the basis of such a mechanism, it is possible to develop strategies for regulating regional development disparities (reduction, maintenance at a certain level, smoothing and optimal using) and measures to reduce their huge figures. Updating the mechanism of regulation of disparities in the development of Ukraine's regions is the basis for improving the scenarios of impact on disparities and developing measures to regulate disparities.

Estimation of health impact from digitalizing last-mile Logistics Management Information Systems (LMIS) in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Mozambique: A Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model analysis.

BackgroundDigital health has become a widely recognized approach to addressing a range of health needs, including advancing universal health coverage and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. At present there is limited evidence on the impact of digital interventions on health outcomes. A growing body of peer-reviewed evidence on digitalizing last-mile electronic logistics management information systems (LMIS) presents an opportunity to estimate health impact.MethodsThe impact of LMIS on reductions in stockouts was estimated from primary data and peer-reviewed literature, with three scenarios of impact: 5% stockout reduction (conservative), 10% stockout reduction (base), and 15% stockout reduction (optimistic). Stockout reduction data was inverted to stock availability and improved coverage for vaccines and essential medicines using a 1:1 conversion factor. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to estimate health impact from lives saved in newborns and children in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia between 2022 and 2026 across the three scenarios.ResultsImproving coverage of vaccines with a digital LMIS intervention in the base scenario (conservative, optimistic) could prevent 4,924 (2,578–6,094), 3,998 (1,621–4,915), and 17,648 (12,656–22,776) deaths in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, respectively over the forecast timeframe. In addition, scaling up coverage of non-vaccine medications could prevent 17,044 (8,561–25,392), 21,772 (10,976–32,401), and 34,981 (17,543–52,194) deaths in Mozambique, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, respectively. In the base model scenario, the maximum percent reduction in deaths across all geographies was 1.6% for vaccines and 4.1% for non-vaccine medications.InterpretationThis study projects that digitalization of last-mile LMIS would reduce child mortality by improving coverage of lifesaving health commodities. This analysis helps to build the evidence base around the benefits of deploying digital solutions to address health challenges. Findings should be interpreted carefully as stockout reduction estimates are derived from a small number of studies.

Planned release of contaminated water from the Fukushima storage tanks into the ocean: Simulation scenarios of radiological impact for aquatic biota and human from seafood consumption

The radiological impact for human and aquatic biota as a result of a planned release of contaminated water stored in tanks near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to the Pacific Ocean is assessed. The total activity for 10 dominant radionuclides (3H, 14C, 60Co, 90Sr, 99Tc, 106Ru, 125Sb, 129I, 134Cs, 137Cs) in tanks is estimated. The compartment model POSEIDON-R is applied to compute the concentration of activity for each radionuclide in water, bottom sediments, and biota, and corresponding doses to marine organisms and humans from seafood consumption. Predicted concentrations of activity in marine products in future will not exceed food safety limits in Japan. The computed maximum committed effective dose to humans is less than 1 μSv per year with the highest contribution from 129I and 14C. Maximum absorbed doses to non-human biota are in the order of 0.05 to 20 μGy per year, meaning that no deleterious effects are expected.