Modern and Projected Characteristics of the Seasonal Cycle of Ice Cover in the Russian Arctic Seas

Abstract

The characteristics of the sea ice conditions in the seas of the Russian Arctic during the period of satellite measurements were studied, and quantitative estimates of their changes in the second half of the 21st century were obtained based on the results of the CMIP6 climate model ensemble using non-mitigation and moderate mitigation scenarios of anthropogenic impact, SSP585 and SSP245, respectively. It has been revealed that the dates of closing (DOC) of the sea ice cover and the length of the open water season (LOWS) are in general successfully reproduced by an ensemble of models. It is shown that DOC will be observed on the average about one month and ten days later under SSP245 scenario and two months later under the SSP585 scenario in 2061–2080 compared to period 1981–2020. At the same time, the increase of LOWS is more than 2.5 months under SSP245 scenario and almost four months under the SSP585 scenario. The most significant changes in DOC are expected in the northern parts of the Barents and Kara seas and in the northwestern part of the Laptev Sea: 2–2.5 months and 2.5–3 months later for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively.