Scenarios For Germany Research Articles

Scenario-based LCA for assessing the future environmental impacts of wind offshore energy: An exemplary analysis for a 9.5-MW wind turbine in Germany

BackgroundOffshore wind energy (OWE) will play a significant role in achieving climate neutrality. For example, several scenarios for Germany (e.g., Kopernikus base, Kopernikus 1.5 degree, Prognos CN65, and CN60) depict substantial OWE annual installed capacity additions, especially after 2030. This tendency promotes OWE technology development as deployment expands, allowing manufacturers to gain expertise and optimize wind turbine construction. The global trend towards ever-larger components (e.g., hub height and rotor diameter) is critical to achieving higher-rated capacities. These aspects and others, such as wind quality, influence not only OWE annual electricity production but also its environmental performance. In addition, future supply chains might reduce their environmental impacts and enhance OWE climate change mitigation. In this paper, a prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) is developed and applied exemplarily for a 9.5-MW offshore wind turbine (OWT) on the North Sea coast of Germany for the years 2030 and 2050. Considering that the current OWTs under construction in Europe have an average capacity of 10 MW, Germany plans to instal OWTs of 9.5-MW. This exemplary OWT describes the potential advances for offshore wind turbines in 2030 and 2050, considering component scale-up and learning effects. Yet, the methodology is adaptable to various installed capacities and regions. This approach allows us to analyse not only the potential future characteristics of wind turbines, but also future developments in OWE supply chains. Therefore, relevant parameters related to OWT construction and operation (e.g., rotor diameter, hub height, distance to the shore, lifetime, etc.) as well as prospective life cycle inventory data for background systems that reflect potential future developments in the broader economy are considered. In this way, scenarios (e.g., optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) for OWE elucidate the expected environmental impacts, such as climate change, marine eutrophication, and abiotic depletion potential, in 2030 and 2050.ResultsThe findings describe the variability of the environmental impacts of a 9.5-MW offshore wind turbine representing the technologies expected to be available in Germany in 2030 and 2050 and show that climate change impacts could vary between 7 and 18 g CO2-eq per kWh produced in 2030 and between 5 and 17 g CO2-eq per kWh in 2050. However, marine eutrophication could experience a significant increase (100% increase), depending on the consideration of hydrogen as a fuel in the electricity mix, as demonstrated in the climate-neutral scenarios adopted for Germany. Overall, construction efficiency improvements in 2050 might reduce the required materials, leading to a 6% decrease in abiotic depletion potential compared to 2030 values.ConclusionsThis paper highlights the need to consider temporal improvements in LCA studies, particularly when assessing the environmental impacts of offshore wind turbines. The complex nature and rapid growth of offshore wind technology require a comprehensive life cycle approach to deepen our understanding of its potential environmental impacts.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany. In this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data. In this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices.

Can an Energy Autarky Private House be Economical? An Analysis Based on Germany

The energy self-sufficiency of private households is a very interesting topic against the background of the current developments in the world, such as power failures as a result of weather catastrophes and new infrastructure challenges as a result of transport electrification. There are various options available for achieving this goal. In the context of this work, a newly built single-family house in Germany with a photovoltaic system with a power storage system and a heat pump with surface heat collectors will be used to investigate whether energy autarky (for electricity and heat) can be economically designed - in comparison to a classic energy supply with electricity from the grid, and a gas condensing boiler heating system. The results show that, through the high gas and electricity prices, scenarios in Germany allow such an economical operation compared to the classic energy supply. However, a condition for this is always that there is a connection to the grid in order to be able to compensate for the differences between electricity supply and demand.

Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation Scenarios in Germany: A Comparative Modelling Study

Abstract Objectives Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is recommended to reduce the burden of obesity, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The objective of this study was to quantify the potential long-term health and economic impact of different SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany using simulation models with different granularity. Methods We used a multi-state life table Markov cohort (MSLT) and a microsimulation (IMPACT) model to simulate the impact of different SSB taxation assumptions and scenarios on CVD and T2DM in the German population aged 20 years and older over 20 years. Data sources included official population counts, anthropometric and dietary intake data from national surveys and published meta-analyses. Change in beverage consumption by sex and age under different taxation scenarios was estimated using de-novo national price elasticities and changes in body weight were based on an energy equilibrium model. We projected incremental disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and healthcare costs, comparing results between both models. Results Preliminary results from the MSLT model show that a 20% SSB excise tax in Germany could lead to moderate body weight reductions across all age-sex groups. Over 20 years, the tax would reduce healthcare costs by €753 million [95% CI: 527; 1,021] and save 24,380 DALYs [18,460; 33,900] from T2DM alone. Health and economic gains largely depend on the relevance of substitution effects, tax amount and taxed beverage categories. Results including CVD and comparisons with the IMPACT model are work-in-progress. Conclusions We show that SSBs taxation in Germany has the potential to reduce healthcare costs and improve population health. The impact of any SSB tax depends on its implementation scenario, which behavioural assumptions hold, and the obesity-related disease outcomes considered for its evaluation. Further research should compare various obesity prevention approaches to support health policy priority setting. Key messages • Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages can reduce healthcare costs and improve population health in Germany. • The estimated health and economic impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation critically depends on tax design and behavioural modelling assumptions.

Deduction of Strategic Planning Guidelines for Urban Medium Voltage Grids with Consideration of Electromobility and Heat Pumps

With the evolution of electromobility and heat pumps in urban areas, distribution system operators find themselves facing new challenges in reinforcing their grids. With this evolution, the power demand is developing rapidly and grid reinforcement is urgently needed. The electromobility and heat pump loads are introduced by giving the assumed development scenarios in Germany and their corresponding nominal power assumptions. Furthermore, a method for load modeling in grid planning is explained. Subsequently, several grid planning approaches are presented while dividing them into conventional and innovative planning strategies. Among the investigated innovative planning strategies are three variants of load management that regulate different load types. By analyzing several urban medium voltage grids, this contribution deduces a solid basis for distribution system operators in the form of planning guidelines. The implemented grid planning method leading to the planning guidelines is presented in detail along the contribution.

Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany

BackgroundForestry plays a major role in climate change mitigation. However, which intensity of logging is best suited for that task remains controversial. We contribute to the debate by quantitatively analyzing three different forest management scenarios in Germany—a baseline scenario which represents a continuation of current forest management practice as well as an intensive and an extensive logging scenario. We assess whether increased carbon storage in wood products and substitution of other emission-intensive materials can offset reduced carbon stocks in the forest due to increased harvesting. For that, we calculate annual required displacement factors (RDF)—a dimensionless quantity that indicates the minimal displacement factor (DF) so that intensive forestry outperforms extensive forestry from a climate perspective.ResultsIf the intensive forest management scenario is included in the comparison, the RDF starts off with relatively high values (1 to 1.5) but declines over time and eventually even reaches negative values. Comparing the extensive scenario to a baseline yields RDF values between 0.1 and 0.9 with a slightly increasing trend. Compared to RDFs, expected future DFs are too low to favour the intensive forestry scenario and too high to favour the extensive forestry scenario, during the first 25 years of the modeling period. However, towards the end of the modeling period, the relationship between DFs and RDF is turned around in both comparisons. In the comparison between intensive and extensive forest management RDF values are very similar to future DF trajectories.ConclusionRDFs are a useful tool for comparing annual climate impacts of forest growth scenarios and can be used to benchmark material and energy substitution effects of wood. Our results indicate that the baseline scenario reflects an effective compromise between carbon stocks in the forest and carbon displacement by wood use. For a longer modeling period, however, this might not be the case. Which of the alternative scenarios would be best suited for climate change mitigation is heavily dependent on future DF trajectory. Hence, our findings highlight the necessity of robust projections of forest dynamics and industry decarbonization pathways.

Assessment of Partitioning and Transmutation of High-Level Waste and Hypothetical Implementation Scenarios in Germany

Abstract. In the context of the search for a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste from nuclear energy a preliminary waste treatment is repeatedly called into play by partitioning and transmutation (P&T). Proponents of this approach promise that with P&T, the requirements for and the risks posed by a – then still necessary – repository could be significantly reduced. However, such technological promises have to be prospectively, promptly and publicly reasonably verifiable. Partitioning is reprocessing in which, in addition to separating uranium and plutonium from the fission products, other material streams (for example, the minor actinides) are extracted. In transmutation, radionuclides – especially through nuclear fission – are converted into other nuclides. Thus, conversion of the parent nuclides into nuclides with shorter half-lives, lower radiotoxicity, or into stable nuclides could be achieved. For the assessment of P&T, essential aspects are the current degree of maturity of necessary technologies, the requirements for research and development, technological development risks, the basic feasibility and objective, risks of a hypothetical operation of corresponding plants and the possible effects on nuclear waste disposal. More specifically, on the technological side, it is all about development periods, technical security requirements and licensability, proliferation risks and implementation periods. The presentation of the results of some hypothetical P&T scenarios is intended to help to assess the impacts on radioactive waste present in Germany, necessary facilities and operating periods. Thus, pyro-chemical and hydrochemical separation processes, special transuranic fuels based on mixed oxides (MOX) or uranium-free fuel types and critical fast reactors, subcritical (accelerator-driven) reactors, as well as molten salt reactors, are considered. One difficulty is that the multiple recycling of the transuranics changes the fuel composition. Detailed statements about these changes are only possible with complex simulation calculations and their influence on safe reactor operation. So far, this has not happened on an international scale. In the modelling presented here, an attempt was made to represent the restrictions that the reactor design has on the fuel composition more precisely, at least insofar as the element composition of the fuel remains the same for the duration of the scenario. Conclusions presented from the analysis of the hypothetical scenarios affect, among other things, necessary operating periods and the number of plants and changes achieved in the stock of both transuranics and fission products.

Sociotechnical imaginaries of a secure future

The article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.

German Pre-service Teachers' Evaluations of and Reactions to Interethnic Social Exclusion Scenarios

This study investigated pre-service teachers' evaluations, reactions, and interventions with regard to interethnic exclusion scenarios in Germany. More specifically, we focused on pre-service teachers (N= 145, 99 female,Mage= 21.34) in the role of observers of exclusion among students. Using hypothetical scenarios in which either a German or a Turkish boy was excluded by other children of his class, we assessed teachers' evaluations of this exclusion behavior. This included evaluating how likely teachers were to intervene in the situation and what they would specifically do. The aim of this research was to examine whether the origin of an excluded student represents a relevant category for teachers' evaluations of and reactions to social exclusion. In addition, we aimed to determine whether teachers include aspects related to group functioning in their considerations. The analyses demonstrated that teachers generally reject social exclusion, with female participants rejecting exclusion even more than male participants. Further, participants evaluated the exclusion of a Turkish protagonist as more reprehensible than the exclusion of a German protagonist. Regarding the likelihood of intervention, the origin of the excluded person was only relevant for male participants; i.e., they were less likely to intervene when the excluded person was German than when the excluded person was Turkish. Analyses of teachers' reasoning revealed their strong focus on inclusion as a social norm, especially in cases of interethnic exclusion. That is, when participants reasoned about the exclusion of the Turkish protagonist, they referred to the social norm of inclusion much more than when talking about the German protagonist. In contrast, aspects related to group functioning were scarcely of importance. In terms of the specific actions that participants would undertake as a reaction to the exclusion situation, no differences related to the origin of the excluded person were found. Hence, the origin of the excluded person factored into both the evaluation of the exclusion and the likelihood of intervention, but once the decision to intervene was made, there were no differences in the specific actions. The results are discussed in light of practical implications and teacher training as well as in terms of implications for future research.

Investigation of Ka-band satcom link performance for teleoperated search and rescue applications

The first activity of search and rescue forces arriving on site is to screen, evaluate, and report the situation to the rescue coordination center. This takes time, which is consequently subtracted from medical care of the injured persons. Figure 1 shows a typical causal chain in the upper line for classical emergency scenarios in Germany from the emergency call to the final delivery of the patient to the hospital (Traditional Emergency Sequence of Events).

Ansätze künftiger deutscher Russlandpolitik in Wahlprogrammen von sechs politischen Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2017

In this article the electoral programs for the Bundestag elections on 24 September 2017 of six German political parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Left Party, Bundnis90/Die Grunen, FDP, and AfD) will be evaluated for their statements on the future German and European policy on Russia. These political parties were selected because they have a realistic chance of being elected into the 19th German Bundestag. The most critical view on the relations with Russia is to be found in the liberal election program. Here, the Russian government is directly called upon to stop immediately the unlawful occupation of the Crimea and the war in the Eastern Ukraine. The most uncritical view on relations with Russia is to be found the election program of the Left party. Criticism of Russian policy in Ukraine is not practiced. However, it calls for a large number of unilateral advance steps by Germany, the EU and NATO, to meet Russia. The willingness to dialogue with the government of Russia contains all six electoral programs under evaluation. Elements of deterrence only contains the program of the FDP. Three scenarios for Germany’s future relations with Russia are possible.

Spatio-temporal optimization of a future energy system for power-to-hydrogen applications in Germany

Achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets requires an increased share of renewable energy sources in todays energy systems. The spatial and temporal mismatch between electricity supply and consumers demand arising from fluctuating renewable electricity generation can be overcome by energy transport and storage. Here, one option is the Power-to-Gas concept. With this, hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis and can then be flexibly distributed and stored throughout the energy system. In this study, an optimization model is proposed that represents such an energy system as multiple interconnected nodes and which considers the systems time-dependent characteristics in terms of the integration of typical days and their chronological order. This methodology is applied to determine the cost-optimal design and operation of future energy systems for Power-to-Gas scenarios in Germany. In these scenarios, hydrogen is supplied to mobility and industry. Onshore wind turbines and hydrogen pipelines and underground storage facilities are considered for generation, transmission and storage. For all scenarios, a hydrogen cost below the current hydrogen retail price of 9.5 Euro/kg at German fueling stations is obtained. Additionally, the value of hydrogen storage in salt caverns is investigated by prohibiting their construction during optimization, which results in a cost increase of 1.5 Euro/kg.

Analysis of the antidote requirements and outcomes of different radionuclide decorporation strategies for a scenario of a "dirty bomb" attack.

In radiological emergencies, there is a risk of radionuclide incorporation. The radiological doses absorbed can be reduced by decorporation treatment. Antidote requirements depend on the scenario and treatment strategy ("urgent approach": immediate treatment of all patients with possible incorporation; "precautionary approach": treatment only after confirmation of incorporation). We calculated the number of daily antidote doses for different scenarios and the differences in outcome for both treatment strategies. The number of potentially contaminated victims was varied from 1,000 to 60,000 (a maximum that might seem plausible for "dirty bomb" scenarios in Germany), the proportion of patients actually needing decorporation treatment from 0.1 percent to 100 percent, the radioactive screening capacities from 250 to 2,500 people/day and treatment duration from 10 to 90 days. The outcomes were assessed as total statistical lifetime saved assuming an inhalation of 1 mCi cesium-137 and the achievable dose reductions by a Prussian Blue treatment. Assuming 1 percent of the potentially contaminated people actually needing treatment, applying an "urgent approach" the requirements for 1,000 victims range from 1,100 to 3,400 and for 60,000 victims from 489,000 to 4,400,000 daily doses, depending on treatment duration and screening capacities. The "urgent approach" is associated with larger stockpile requirements than the "precautionary approach", up to several hundred times in large-scale scenarios if the proportion of people actually needing treatment is low. The impact of the screening capacities is particularly important in large-scale scenarios, a low proportion of people needing treatment and extended treatment duration. The outcome is better for an "urgent approach" particularly in large-scale scenarios and low screening capacities. If only a small fraction of the victims actually needs treatment, their timely identification by enhancing screening capacities may be the most efficacious way to reduce antidote requirements. In large-scale scenarios, it might be necessary to abandon the medically preferable "urgent approach" for an antidote-sparing "precautionary approach".

Estimation of Nutrient Exports Resulting from Thinning and Intensive Biomass Extraction in Medium-Aged Spruce and Pine Stands in Saxony, Northeast Germany

A growing interest in using forest biomass for bioenergy generation may stimulate intensive harvesting scenarios in Germany. We calculated and compared nutrient exports of conventional stem only (SO), whole tree without needles (WT excl. needles), and whole tree (WT) harvesting in two medium aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands differing in productivity, and related them to soil nutrient pools and fluxes at the study sites. We established allometric biomass functions for each aboveground tree compartment and analyzed their nutrient contents. We analyzed soil nutrient stocks, estimated weathering rates, and obtained deposition and seepage data from nearby Level II stations. WT (excl. needles) and WT treatments cause nutrient losses 1.5 to 3.6 times higher than SO, while the biomass gain is only 1.18 to 1.25 in case of WT (excl. needles) and 1.28 to 1.30 in case of WT in the pine and spruce stand, respectively. Within the investigated 25-year period, WT harvesting would cause exports of N, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ of 6.6, 8.8, 5.4, and 0.8 kg·ha−1 in the pine stand and 13.9, 7.0, 10.6, and 1.8 kg·ha−1 in the spruce stand annually. The relative impact of WT and WT (excl. needles) on the nutrient balance is similar in the pine and spruce stands, despite differences in stand productivities, and thus the absolute amount of nutrients removed. In addition to the impact of intensive harvesting, both sites are characterized by high seepage losses of base cations, further impairing the nutrient budget. While intensive biomass extraction causes detrimental effects on many key soil ecological properties, our calculations may serve to implement measures to improve the nutrient balance in forested ecosystems.

How to Avoid and Mitigate Stress in Megacities

Speculative scenarios in Germany assume a shrinking population and, based on global shortages in raw materials, food, energy, and water, provide challenging indicators of a future in which a new super-infrastructure links large cities, and people have settled along these supply lines for energy, trade, and traffic. There are no more cars in these scenarios, but only autonomous transport capsules. People have abandoned their dwellings in infrastructurally impoverished areas such as the countryside. Cities are very densely populated because people can only afford the high energy costs by living in densely populated quarters. The war for talents—including foreign talents—continues among cities. The neighborhood becomes very important. Another scenario, on a more global scale, assumes that living and working quarters in the cities of the future will be more tightly networked than today, and that village elements will co-exist with entrepreneurial activities. Urban lifestyles will become more diverse, the proportion of families will decrease, and the numbers of singles and several-generation communities will increase. All scenarios foresee problems related to population growth, tight finances, a high demand for land, ever-increasing traffic, more and more environmental problems, and social problems among the various stakeholders in the population.

Critical Dietary Habits in Early Childhood: Principles and Practice.

The adequacy of a diet is usually evaluated based on nutrient intake. As people eat foods but not nutrients, food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) are needed. To evaluate dietary habits in infants and young children, the following stepwise approach is suggested: (1) develop country-specific FBDG to identify the potential of common nonfortified foods to ensure adequate nutrient intake and (2) examine potential 'critical' dietary patterns if main food groups are excluded, such as in vegetarian diets or if a family's precarious social status leads to food constraints. The German FBDG for infant and child nutrition demonstrate that a well-designed mixture of common foods results in an adequate supply of nutrients, except for vitamin D, iodine and iron. The following solutions are feasible to address deficiencies in these critical nutrients: routine supplementation (vitamin D), fortified complementary food consumption or supplementation for infants as well as inclusion of table salt in the family diet for children (iodine), and individual pediatric care for infants at risk (iron). In the exclusion of food groups of animal origin from vegetarian diets, several nutrients are at risk of becoming deficient if not substituted. Existing studies characterizing vegetarian children are rare. These were mainly published in the 1980s and 1990s and were biased towards a high social status. Thus, firm conclusions on today's dietary practices and health statuses of European vegetarian children cannot be drawn. A social gradient exists for food patterns and dietary quality in children, but energy intake need not necessarily be affected. Scenarios in Germany suggest that families on unemployment assistance can afford to eat a diet compliant with German FBDG only if they restrict food selection to basic food. Yet, the question of how families cope with financial constraints in everyday life remains. In conclusion, well-designed FBDG provide various opportunities to identify critical nutrients and critical food habits in early childhood and beyond.

Techno-economic and policy requirements for the market-entry of the fuel cell micro-CHP system in the residential sector

This work analyses the impact of different support schemes on the retail price of micro-combined heat and power units based on solid oxide fuel cells in the residential sector. The implications of each incentive toward the technical implementation of the technology are also analyzed.A detailed techno-economic assessment of the micro-combined heat and power unit is provided considering the best-in-class ceramic fuel cell technology and today’s costs for gas and electricity in the residential sector. The Italian case study was used to evaluate the impact of different supporting schemes. In order to further extend the validity of our research, scenarios for Germany and Denmark are simulated and discussed.For large-family residential users consuming 9000kWh of electricity yearly, the retail price that yields a five year pay-back-time – without any incentive – is ∼2500€. Under the same assumptions, for the average family with a consumption of around 3500kWh, the required price is ∼650€. In both cases, a retail price that is four and seven time higher respectively is achieved with the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) scheme of the type currently in use in the United Kingdom. A modified Feed-in Tariff is finally proposed to support on-site consumption rather than generation with export to the grid.

Multi-commodity real options analysis of power plant investments: discounting endogenous risk structures

The value of power generation technologies can be derived from the investment cost, the plant’s expected lifetime, and the discounted cash flows, the latter of which typically are a combination of several underlyings, such as the price of fuel, electricity, and CO\(_2\). To determine this value, most studies assume predefined, uniform, and constant discount rates, irrespective of the fact that the specific risk strongly varies with the technology concerned and also over time. In order to endogenize the technology-specific risk, we develop a new model that explicitly accounts for the (likewise technology-specific) combination of the underlyings. More specifically, we use a multivariate binomial tree real options approach for analyzing the value of different power plants (gas-fired and coal-fired, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS); hydro; wind; photovoltaics) and for taking into account technical change. We further investigate the influence of alternative CO\(_2\) policies on the plants’ values, modeling the CO\(_2\) price in three different ways and for three different carbon price levels (5, 25, 45 €/t\(_\mathrm{CO_2}\)): (1) as a stochastic process (geometric Brownian motion), reflecting the price development in the Emissions Trading Scheme of the European Union (EU ETS); (2) as a (constrained) stochastic process with a price floor, and (3) as a deterministic carbon tax. From the model application, using data from German exchange-based markets and a much-cited pilot study on future energy strategies and scenarios in Germany, we find a strong preference for hard-coal power plants in the low CO\(_2\) price scenario (\(P_{2015}=\) €5) and a low value of waiting in case of using the real options model. For all price scenarios, the value of waiting is much higher for both the CO\(_2\) permits with a price floor and the CO\(_2\) tax policy. This leads, for the medium and high CO\(_2\) price scenario, to a dominance of the CCS power plants. In the high CO\(_2\) price scenario (\(P_{2015}=\) €45), the value of waiting only delays the investment decision in the case of the floored CO\(_2\) permit prices. For the two other policies, the model predicts an immediate investment in CCS power plants once the CCS technology becomes commercially available in 2020.

A method for estimating security of electricity supply from intermittent sources: Scenarios for Germany until 2030

In this paper, we develop a methodology for deriving a consistent measure for supply adequacy in the power generation sector. We especially consider the secured generation capacity of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind. Availability of conventional power plants is estimated through stochastic convolution of unscheduled non-usabilities. We employ our methodology to measure supply security in Germany until 2030. A detailed market analysis of power plants that are currently being built or planned provides support to our analysis for the short term. For the long term, we rely on a large-scale dispatch and investment model of the European power sector to account for the embedding of the German electricity sector in the European market. We analyze two scenarios: one with prolongation of nuclear power plants and one with a nuclear phase-out. Our results show that, even though intermittent renewables only provide very limited secured generation capacity, security of electricity supply in Germany can be assured until 2015. In the long term, the need for backup capacity for renewable energy sources increases as well as the need for electricity imports.

Greenhouse gas emissions of different waste treatment options for sector-specific commercial and industrial waste in Germany

This article investigates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from commercial and industrial (C&I) waste treatment considering five sector-specific waste compositions and four different treatment scenarios in Germany. Results show that the highest share of CO₂-equivalent emissions can be avoided in each of the analysed industrial sectors if solid recovered fuel (SRF) is produced for co-incineration in cement kilns. Across all industries, emissions of approximately 680 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ C&I waste can be avoided on average under this scenario. The combustion of C&I waste in waste incineration plants without any previous mechanical treatment generates the lowest potential to avoid GHG emissions with a value of approximately 50 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ C&I waste on average in all industries. If recyclables are sorted, this can save emissions of approximately 280 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ C&I waste while the treatment in SRF power plants amounts to savings of approximately 210 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ C&I waste. A comparison of the treatment scenarios of the waste from these five sectors shows that waste treatment of the craft sector leads to the lowest CO₂-equivalent reduction rates of all scenarios. In contrast, the treatment of waste from catering sector leads to the highest CO₂-equivalent reduction rates except for direct incineration in waste incineration plants. The sensitivity analysis of the different scenarios for this paper shows that the efficiency and the substitution factor of energy have a relevant influence on the result. Changes in the substitution factor of 10% can result in changes in emissions of approximately 55 to 75 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ in waste incineration plants and approximately 90 kg CO₂-eq. Mg⁻¹ in the case of cement kilns.