Abstract
The article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.
Highlights
Technologies condition social change, yet social change conditions technological development
These dimensions seek to anticipate the development of each factor, as explained below. This is a necessary step for our subsequent consistency analysis, in order to ensure each key factor remains internally coherent. We demonstrate this step with reference to one key factor, “Policing 2.0”: A significant portion of the codings relate to a number of security technologies that could potentially be used in the domain of policing2
2Based on our content review, we identified various relevant technological developments, which can be subsumed under the following categories: networked databases; facial recognition; prisoner tracking devices; body cams; video surveillance; predictive policing; mobile-phone location tracking; genetic analysis; online surveillance. 3Based on our content review, we identified various possible developments: expanded powers for security authorities; new security technology databases or institutional resources; misuse of security technologies; lack of transparency; no popular resistance to expanded use of security technologies; use of surveillance measures without concrete suspicion; facial recognition order by judge; violation of fundamental rights; no data retention; police use of corporate security technologies; corporate control of security technologies used by government authorities
Summary
Technologies condition social change, yet social change conditions technological development. In this way, technologies are inseparable from the broader social contexts in which they arise. While the increasing deployment of security technology can to some extent assure greater security in an objective sense, “security” itself is a normative concept. Our understanding of security is inextricably linked to values and beliefs that are constantly in flux. In the broader social discussion concerning the dangers we face and how they should be addressed “security culture”) [7], security technologies are one piece of the puzzle. For Jasanoff and Kim [25] and Stewart and Williams [53], security technologies and social developments mutually condition each other in a “co-evolutionary” process that
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