Transformation Scenarios Research Articles

Management of Innovations in Public Administration: Strategies to Prevent the Participation of Financial Intermediaries in Shadow Operations

This article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on improving public administration tools in the context of implementing innovative mechanisms for combating shadow financial transactions. The main purpose of this research is to formalize innovative strategies to counter the shadow withdrawal of capital with the participation of financial intermediaries. The systematization of scientific sources and approaches to solving the problem of the de-shadow economy proved that a characteristic feature of the functioning of the shadow market is the active participation of financial intermediaries in shadow operations. The information base is data from the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Group for the Development of Financial Measures to Combat Money Laundering, Transparency International, and the World Economic Forum. The period of the study is 2003-2021. The EU countries, Ukraine, Moldova, and Montenegro, as candidate countries for EU membership, were selected as the object of the study. This study applied the methods of bibliometric analysis to generalize the existing scientific work on the investigated issue, analysis of changes in the number of search changes on the problems of shadowing the economy, and clustering regions by the number of search queries on the shadow economy. Intellectual data analysis methods (one-dimensional branching CART and agglomeration methods) were used for clustering countries depending on the nature of the policy of countering the shadowing of the economy. Based on the results of the bibliometric analysis, theories describing the shadow economy, in particular: innovation theory, the theory of centralization, and institutional theory, were summarized. The article presents the results of cluster analysis, which proved the practicality of selecting three clusters of countries: cluster 1 – Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, and Portugal; cluster 2 – Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, France, Malta, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Austria, Hungary, and Slovak Republic, Slovenia; cluster 3 – Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Poland, Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine. The study empirically confirmed and theoretically proved that the entire set of innovative scenarios for implementing economic de-shadowing policy could be divided into three types (evolutionary scenario, sequential transformation scenario, and forced scenario). The above scenarios depend on the speed of change in the indicators of developing the shadow economic sector and their sensitivity to the implemented measures.

Digital challenges in the economy and their impact on regional development

Introduction. Digital transformations that have occurred in socio-economic development of entire society have been proven, so that direct consumers of digital products and services are population gaining access to the Internet, certain applications, programs and databases that help to improve the quality of life, make it more comfortable in conditions of turbulent development and quarantine restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Development of digital opportunities has emphasized importance of supporting this area from regulatory and legislative framework, in particular its improvement and regulation, which will be reflected in improving population’s well-being and regional development.
 Aim and tasks. The aim of the article is devoted to consideration of theoretical and practical foundations of ongoing changes in the economy of territorial economic systems under the influence of rapid spread of innovative technologies, in particular digital transformations and digital challenges, their impact on regional development.
 Results. In the given article we have considered approaches and individual directions concerning certain changes in socio-economic direction of society’s development under the influence of digital transformations. The factors and indicators influencing region’s level of assessment of digital capabilities are indicated. A possible scenario for transformation of digital economy is given, taking into account forms of involvement in digitalization process contributing to the development of digital network and business, formation of new approaches to sustainable strategic development of the regional economy. The role of investment component in promoting and developing digital opportunities, which are reflected in population’s social well-being, has been proven. It has been established that the digital development of society is formed under the influence of the relationship between government and business, the use of the latest information technologies.
 Conclusions. The widespread dissemination and implementation of digital opportunities is the key to sustainable development of the region, which affects the improvement of business, interaction with the authorities and the growth of the population's well-being. Expanding access to the Internet, levelling user opportunities will accelerate implementation of digital economy and achievement of positive socio-economic changes. It is digitalization of the economy and society that is the main tool for development. A systematic approach to the usage of digital technologies will act as a stimulating factor in the development of society and economy at different levels: national, regional (territorial) and local. In addition, the systematic usage of digital technologies has an impact on raising the level and improving population’s living conditions.

AVALIAÇÃO DOS PARÂMETROS FÍSICO-QUÍMICOS E BIOLÓGICOS DAS ÁGUAS DO CÓRREGO DA CASCATA

The hydrographic basins have been going through several transformations of their natural landscapes through anthropic interventions, which causes environmental disturbances in the water bodies. The Córrego da Cascata basin has the largest Atlantic Forest forest fragment in the municipality of Presidente Prudente – SP, it is in a scenario of landscape transformation through land use and land cover due to the increase in human activities such as urbanization, pasture for pastoral, perennial and annual agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the waters of the stream, which crosses the Chico Mendes Municipal Ecological Park (Mata do Furquim). According to the IQA, the three study points were classified as regular along the stream. The BMWP index rated one point as bad and two points as regular waters.

Beyond climate change. Multi-attribute decision making for a sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways

A multitude of pathways for decarbonizing energy systems have been formulated. In the development of these scenarios, the focus is often only on system costs at a given CO2 emission reduction. However, when assessing the sustainability of energy systems in a broader sense, many more aspects need to be considered: In addition to greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems induce further environmental and socio-economic impacts and must meet requirements for security of supply and cost efficiency. For assessing the compatibility of a future energy system with sustainability concepts, alternative pathways must be compared holistically using dedicated assessment methods, which is facilitated by multi-attribute decision making methods (MADM). With the target of identifying sustainable transformation pathways, we assess ten transformation scenarios for the example of Germany, using the three MADM methods weighted sum method, PROMETHEE II and TOPSIS. We find that top ranks are not completely stable across methods, but there are scenario clusters which rank high, medium and low for all methods. In the top ranks, there are both less ambitious scenarios that aim at reducing direct CO2 emissions by 80%, and more ambitious scenarios with a reduction by at least 95%. We conclude that scenarios with more ambitious climate protection goals are not necessarily more (or less) sustainable than scenarios that aim for a reduction of 80% only.

Impacts of COVID-19 on patterns of meat and seafood consumption: evidence from Australia

PurposeIn 2020, mechanisms to limit the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Australia led to widespread restrictions on population mobility and business operations. Such conditions provide a natural experiment that may help to provide insights into consumer behaviour and future trends in food consumption. The overall objective of this study is to explore the possible impacts of COVID-19 on meat consumption patterns in Australia, both in the short and medium term, and to explore whether there have been impacts on the underlying drivers for consumption.Design/methodology/approachThe research reported in this paper analyses the impacts of COVID-19 on meat and seafood consumption in Australia, drawing on a national random survey of 1,200 participants in June 2020. Survey data on past and current consumption rates are compared to respondent estimates of their future consumption behaviour, and ordered probit models are used to identify whether consumption changes can be explained by socio-demographic, attitudinal or economic factors.FindingsTwo potential scenarios were evaluated to explore future consumption trends. The first “acceleration” scenario is that the restrictions would encourage people to speed up existing declines in meat consumption, perhaps taking more account of credence factors such as health, animal welfare and environmental issues. The second “transformation” scenario is that people will change consumption patterns, perhaps moving more towards home-cooked meals and increased consumption. Slightly stronger support was found for the transformation scenario, indicating that consumption rates for most meats and seafood will be stable or increase over the next five years.Originality/valueThis study capitalises on changed social and economic settings generated by COVID-19 to test the effects on consumption of meat (chicken, beef, pork, lamb) and seafood at a national level. Ordered probit models are applied to evaluate participant data on their future intentions for meat consumption to test two scenarios, finding stronger support for the “transformative” scenario than the “accelerate” scenario.

Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector

Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.

Reliability Metrics for Generation Planning and the Role of Regulation in the Energy Transition: Case Studies of Brazil and Mexico

In recent years electricity sectors worldwide have undergone major transformations, referred to as the “energy transition”. This has required energy planning to quickly adapt to provide useful inputs to the regulation activity so that a cost-effective electricity market emerges to facilitate the integration of renewables. This paper analyzes the role of system planning and regulations on two specific elements in the energy market design: the concept of firm capacity and the presence of distributed energy resources, both of which can be influenced by regulation. We assess the total cost of different regulatory mechanisms in the Brazilian and Mexican systems using optimization tools to determine optimal long-term expansion for a given regulatory framework. In particular, we quantitatively analyze the role of the current regulation in the total cost of these two electricity systems when compared to a reference “efficient” energy planning scenario that adopts standard cost-minimization principles and that is well suited to the most relevant features of the new energy transformation scenario. We show that two very common features of regulatory designs that can lead to distortions are: (i) renewables commonly having a lower “perceived cost” under the current regulations, either due to direct incentives such as tax breaks or due to indirect access to more attractive contracts or financing conditions; and (ii) requirements for reliability are often defined more conservatively than they should be, overstating the hardships imposed by renewable generation on the existing system and underestimating their potential to form portfolios.

Long-term energy demand-side modelling of nigerian household sector

This paper investigates four energy demand scenarios for the Nigerian household sector. The scenarios were formulated largely on subsisting energy policy document, and include: (i) Business as Usual (BaU), (ii) Improved Access to Modern Fuel for Cooking (MFC), (iii) Efficient Energy Use (EEU); and (iv) Transformative (TS) Scenarios. The scenarios which span through 30 years were modelled in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software and exported to an MS Excel spreadsheet for post-processing. Each of the scenarios examines the energy consumption pattern in rural and urban households alongside the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. Key results show that with a projected total population of 342.3 million people by 2040, the total energy consumption for BaU, MFC, EEU and TS are 1447 PJ, 939 PJ, 890 PJ and 724 PJ, respectively. Furthermore, results indicate that BaU emits more GHGs than MFC, EEU and TS, with respective values of 27.2, 18.9, 18.4 and 16.7 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent by the year 2040. The Transformative Scenario promises to be more ambitious at 38 % less GHGs emission than BaU. The results show clear insight to aggressively drive the ambitions of the revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) with clear pathways to decarbonize the household sector along low-carbon and low-energy development. The paper also presents key policy pathways to navigate the household sector in the low-carbon space.

Embodied Carbon and Embodied Energy Scenarios in the Built Environment. Computational Design Meets EPDs

This article aims to study the political, environmental and economic factors in contemporary society that influence new approaches and decision making in design in terms of carbon emissions and energy employment. These issues are increasingly influencing political decision making and public policy throughout every aspect of society, including the design practice. Managing this kind of complexity means adopting new forms of collaboration, methodologies and tools, knowledge and technology sharing. The article aims to narrate a PhD research experience grounded in academy–industry collaboration and aimed at creating a digital methodology for impact evaluation and investment planning. In particular, the digital methodology focuses on responding to international public policy for the sustainable growth of cities, in terms of footprint and energy demand, by including a holistic view of the design process made possible by the use of life-cycle assessment (LCA) procedures. To simplify the calculation, the methodology focuses on the Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) data rather than the entire LCA. The EPD is a document that describes the environmental impacts linked to the production of a specific quantity of product or service. The objective was not to create another evaluation method but to employ the EPD results in combination with parametric and computational procedures. The integration of those procedures by using visual programming and scripting allowed the calculation of Embodied Carbon and Embodied Energy and created a user-friendly interface to query the results. The output obtained included automatic and dynamic diagrams able to identify impact scenarios in terms of CO2 emissions and MJ of embodied energy after the conceptual design stage. The strategic use of the charts lies in their potential to simulate impact conditions and, therefore, in the chance to create sustainable transformation scenarios in the early stages of design. At this point, the influence on choices is at its highest, and the costs are low. Moreover, the methodology represents a platform of collaboration that potentially increases the level of interaction between the actors of the construction process with the consequent improvement in design quality. In conclusion, building the design methodology and testing its performance within a specific sociotechnical context was important in critically evaluating certain topics, for example, the recent European strategies on new technology to reach sustainable objectives, the role of digital tools in proposing solutions towards contemporary social issues, the birth of new forms of partnership and collaboration and the new possibilities coming from digital evaluation approaches.

Взгляд в будущее: системно-динамическое моделирование политической трансформации региональных элит (Россия, 2021 – 2035 гг.)

The purpose of this study is to examine the ways in which the Russian regional administrative and political elites can change in 2021–2035. The authors attempted not only to find the most positive variants, but also to assess their probability and to describe the conditions for their implementation. There are seven predictive scenarios for the development of regional elites, which were constructed as a result of computer experiments with a system-dynamic model. The developed model is implemented in Powersim Studio 10. The model encompasses the main mechanisms and channels for recruiting elites as well as actors that have influenced the elite substitution system. The study is a follow-up to the work that was published in the Journal of Political Research and devoted to realistic and counterfeit scenarios of elite transformation in 1985–2019. The geographic framework within which the model can be applied spans — with some caveats — the European part of Russia. Modeling showed that some predictive scenarios are negative and even catastrophic for the progress of regional elites and for relations «federal center — regions». Moreover, such scenarios can be initiated not only by some unlikely events like the «Russian Maidan» (Ukrainization scenario), but also by erroneous actions of the federal government (Regency scenario). It has been revealed that the introduction of unified principles of monitoring and analysis, as well as centralized personnel management (Technocracy scenario) in the regions can solve all three key problems of elite evolution — namely, maintaining elite loyalty, achieving their acceptable quality, and gaining legitimacy.

District heating systems modeling: A gamification approach

District heating (DH) is supposed to largely contribute to achievement of the climate goals in the near future. However, public awareness, understanding and acceptance of the technology are required. At the same time, gamification has been identified as a viable teaching and learning method in higher education, which might be also appealing to non-professionals and might bridge their knowledge gap in DH. Since literature review has shown that no game about DH exists, the concept of a serious game about a heat supply system and its transformation from a fossil fuel-based system to a renewable-based one is introduced in this work. The first results of the game development are presented, namely, initial conditions, gameplay, the model of heating sector and the model of the DH transformation. The game will allow players to explore interdependencies between technical, economic, ecological and sociopolitical aspects as well as among different stakeholders (producers, consumers, government) and develop strategies for a successful transformation. The flexibility of different transformation scenarios and the influence of boundary conditions on the transformation can be analyzed after playing the game multiple times.

Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics.Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Territorialities and Urbanities Transform: A Scenario-Based Approach to Local Planning and Decision Making in Inukjuak and Salluit, Nunavik

This article focuses on the sustainable transformation of Nunavik’s Northern Villages with regard to the notions of dwelling, urbanity and territoriality. Our participatory design research approach addressed the limits of current planning frameworks, exogenous development models, and a complex governance system by integrating the relationship to the territory and the impacts of climate change in the exploration of scenarios for alternative futures adapted to local urban realities. The research illustrates these limits and complexities with hypothetical transformation scenarios in Inukjuak and Salluit. By identifying plausible futures, we formulated sustainable planning strategies combining interrelated factors in the development of project-based interventions to incorporate traditional practices in an urbanizing context. The case of Inukjuak illustrates the importance of natural environments, urban consolidation practices, diversity of use, and socialization, while that of Salluit demonstrates the reciprocity between geomorphological, constructive, socio-cultural, and logistical design variables. Evolving Northern development challenges require that the relevance of these scenarios be examined based on alternative hypotheses and long-term horizons, in the imagination of shared strategies for sustainable planning. Design research, the use of decision-making tools and participatory frameworks are questioned in relation to their contribution to the self-determination of local communities in the “resituation” of their living environments.

Land Use Optimization in a Resource-Exhausted City Based on Simulation of the F-E-W Nexus

Limited land resources are used to meet the growing economic, social, and ecological needs of people in China. Food, energy, and water (F-E-W) are the basic resources for supporting human survival and the transformation of different land uses. This paper tries to construct a theoretical framework of land use and the F-E-W nexus and uses system dynamics to simulate the optimal allocation of land use in Shizuishan City, China, by comparing different scenarios that have different parameters related to F-E-W. The final results follow: (1) according to the relationship between land use and the F-E-W nexus, a three-layer nested theoretical framework is constructed. (2) Future land use under different scenarios differs. Under the scenarios of a less dependence on coal energy, a higher utilization efficiency of energy and agricultural water resources, and a lower grain self-sufficiency rate, there are less crop and urban lands but more ecological land. However, generally speaking, crop and rural construction lands tend to decrease, while urban and ecological lands tend to increase. (3) Combined with different objectives, the rapid transformation scenario is considered a better option in which to achieve a balance among the economy, society, and ecology. This paper also discusses the application of land use optimization in the delineation of three control lines in territory-space planning in China.

Evaluation of Energy Transition Scenarios in Poland

Long-term energy scenarios form the basis of energy policy-making. In practice, the use of energy scenarios for the effective creation of energy policy differs in each country. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present two possible scenarios for the development of the Polish energy sector, resulting from the current national policy and international commitments of Poland. The study examined the development of the energy mix in Poland in the 2040 perspective, in accordance with the strategic document Energy Policy of Poland (PEP 2040). The analysis took into account four diagnostic features: electricity production, electricity price, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in final energy consumption, and CO2 emission reduction. In addition, the analysis allowed for the presentation of the implications for the Polish economy and society after the application of the diversified variant with nuclear energy and the diversified variant with natural gas. Both scenarios assume too slow development of RES, and the ambivalent attitude of the Polish political elite towards zero-emission energy sources significantly hinders the development of some of its forms (e.g., onshore wind energy). Unfortunately, both the first and second variants entail a large increase in electricity prices, which will affect the entire economy and increase the level of energy poverty among Poles. The study provides strategic insights on the consequences of Poland’s choice of a specific energy transformation scenario. The results may serve as a starting point for understanding Poland’s restraint towards achieving zero emissions and contribute to the discussion of the direction of development of the Polish energy sector.

Learning Transformation Rules by Examples

This paper presents an abstract for a general data transformation approach. Using programming by demonstration technique, we learn the transformation rules through user given examples. These transformation rules are automatically generated from a predefined grammar. Due to the grammar space is huge, we propose a grammar space reduction method to reduce the search space and a sketch of search algorithm is adopted to identify the rules that are consistent with the examples. The final experimental results show our approach achieves promising results on different transformation scenarios.

“Black Swans” in Organizational Design of Russian Universities

Universities in Russia are experiencing a dynamic transformation of scientific and educational processes, their structures, and management systems. These changes occur at different rates and levels of transformation; they allow for both positive and negative transformation scenarios. A general trend to develop university’s management systems in the country – as well as in the whole world – lies in the managerialization, which poses risks for transforming a university. Following Mintzberg’s methodology for analyzing organizational systems and Taleb’s concept of “black swans”, the paper aimed to analyze degradation scenarios for developing university’s management systems and identify factors and conditions for these scenarios and their consequences for universities.

A novel shock-induced multistage phase transformation and underlying mechanism in textured Nano-Twinned Cu

Nano-Twinned (NT) Cu under shock loading parallel to twin planes was investigated via nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations, with particular attention to the shock response and intrinsic deformation mechanism. During the shock compression process, a novel multi-stage phase transformation (MPT) scenario, i.e., from FCC phase to BCC phase and then to HCP phase, happens due to shock-enhanced twin boundary (TB) sliding. Both increasing the compressive strain caused by shock and decreasing the twin lamellae in the NT Cu can promote the MPT, with which the yield strength retains but the spallation strength increases. The critical shock pressure triggering the MPT depends exponentially on lamellae twin thickness (T). These new results have great potentials for improving the impact resistance of metals by tailoring their internal nanostructures.

Educar y formar en el empoderamiento pacifista

Pacifist empowerment is constituted as a non-violent social change strategy that grants people and their communities agency power, which allows them to change the course of the conflicts that affect them and thereby achieve the visibility that they possess an innate and inactive power in which it is possible to educate, train and transform. This article discusses the epistemological and ontological assumptions of pacifist empowerment, with a proposal that intends to link them with the principles for education for peace so that it becomes a teaching tool in everyday life and in the classrooms of all students. educational levels in Mexico, preferably at the primary level. The phenomenological and hermeneutical research proposed here is complemented by an extensive theoretical discussion, where the complexity in which the human being inhabits and the conflicts derived from it are placed as transformative scenarios, which must be managed from the peace and peaceful power of the people can reduce harm to individuals and their social groups.

Configurations, deformations, mutations. Criteria of morphological analysis in adaptive reuse

The reuse of existing buildings is a topic of strategic interest in a perspective of sustainability and efficient use of resources. Since many buildings tend to survive over time the functions for which they were designed, it is necessary to analyze reuse interventions through a diachronic process. Among the multiple factors that contribute to the project of a reuse intervention, a key aspect is constituted by the underlying morphology of its pre-existence. Therefore, starting from the hypothesis that a building whose original function has mutated can no longer be characterized through it, but rather through the permanence of its form, we intend to demonstrate that a project of adaptive reuse of a pre-existing building implies a morphological potential through which it is possible to determine diversified cognitive approaches and transformation scenarios.