Abstract
Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics.Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
Highlights
Accounting for 36% of the global final energy demand and 39% of energy and processrelated CO2 emissions (IEA 2019a), buildings play a major role in climate change mitigation (Cabeza and Ürge-Vorsatz 2020)
In SSP1, high renovation rates enable a progressive upgrade of existing buildings, leading to 40% of the initial stock renovated by 2050 in Europe, around onethird of which are compliant with advanced renovation standard
Slum settlements gradually disappear in Centrally Planned Asia (CPA) under SSP1, while they persist in other regions and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), though
Summary
Accounting for 36% of the global final energy demand and 39% of energy and processrelated CO2 emissions (IEA 2019a), buildings play a major role in climate change mitigation (Cabeza and Ürge-Vorsatz 2020). Unprecedented increase in buildings energy demand is expected in developing countries, along with rapid expansion of the building stock driven by growing incomes. There is an important opportunity in limiting future energy demand, while extending access to shelter and thermal comfort in developing countries, by promoting construction of energy efficient buildings, as the building stock is set to double by 2050 (IEA 2019a). Drastic reductions in energy demand could play a critical role in carbon mitigation pathways, limiting the reliance on uncertain and contested negative emission technologies (Mundaca et al 2019; Cabeza and Ürge-Vorsatz 2020). Most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios
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