Scenario Workshops Research Articles

Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique's Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040

Prospects and Challenges: Mozambique's Growth and Human Development Outlook to 2040

From divide to nexus: Interconnected land use and water governance changes shaping risks related to water

Land use changes have been recognized to have considerable impacts on water; and vice versa, changes in water use and governance may have implications on land use and governance. This study analyzes recent land use/land cover (LULC) changes, and how changes in land use and water governance are perceived to affect land use and water-related risks in three case-study areas exposed to frequent flooding and inadequate or deteriorating water quality. The areas studied included the Vantaa basin in Finland, a section of the Grijalva basin in Mexico, and the Lower Xe Bang Fai basin in Laos. We show how there are complex and context-specific interrelationships between land use, water governance, and water-related risks in each study area. In a remote sensing analysis of LULC changes during the past 30 years, we found that LULC changes have been the most dramatic in Xe Bang Fai, Laos in the form of expanding agriculture and built-up areas; however, there has also been an expansion of built-up areas in the two other sites. According to our stakeholder scenario workshop data, analysis of policy documents and field visits, the nexus between land, water and risks is recognized to some extent in each study area. There have been modest shifts toward more integrated land use and water governance in Vantaa and Grijalva, while the integrated governance seems to have been most absent in Xe Bang Fai. Tighter integration of land and water policies is needed in all the three cases to manage the land use changes in a way that their effects on water-related risks will be minimized.

Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia

Land use change, climate change, and the politics of accelerated agricultural growth shape contemporary land use in Russia. This factor combination urgently calls for exploring viable opportunities for sustainable land management in rural areas, which remains low on the political agenda. We address this task by bringing together various dimensions of future land use and state regulation and develop land use scenarios for the Tyumen region in Western Siberia up to 2050. Schematised maps of future land use make the scenarios spatially explicit and stakeholder-engaging. As part of the scenario process, we conducted stakeholder interviews and organised two scenario workshops on the ground. We present the scenarios as a tool that could be used to support participatory processes in a post-Soviet context.

Three scenarios for EU-China relations 2025

The year 2016 was a turning year for international relations. Under the global threat of terrorism and in the climate of ‘postfactual’ politics and large political changes, the trust in western political systems has severely been shaken. It is within this climate that deliberating the future of one of the most important international relationships, namely that between the European Union and the People’s Republic of China, is urgently required. Using the methodology of several scenario workshops working from the identification of key drivers by international experts to developing several scenarios based on combinations of these drivers, this research ties into current future studies. Three scenarios were chosen and their ‘histories of the future’ reflect the outlook of an economically and politically strengthened China vis-à-vis the European Union, while differences remain on the benefits and losses implied for European countries depending on their ability to stay united within the European Union. The role of the US and the trilateral relationship emerges as an important determinant of the bilateral relationship as well. The driver of technological leadership, however, is the area in which European policy is most able to influence and adapt to the changes implied by the three scenarios.

Modelling impacts of development on water resources in the Huai Sai Bat sub-basin in north-eastern Thailand with a participatory approach

Little is done to connect hydrological modelling with stakeholder participation. This study incorporates agricultural development and climatic changes within the Water Evaluation and Planning hydrological model. This is done with a participatory approach involving four scenario workshops, 400 household surveys and two focus group discussions in the period of 2010–2012 for the ungauged Huai Sai Bat sub-basin as a case study in the Mekong region. The modelling results indicate future increased streamflow during the wet (monsoon) season in response to shifts in the regional climate. Modelled land-use and management changes brought about large unmet water demands, primarily in the dry season.

Ecosystem Services and Cultural Values as Building Blocks for ‘The Good life’. A Case Study in the Community of Røst, Lofoten Islands, Norway

We examined the contribution of natural capital and social capital through the notion of cultural ecosystem services to shaping human well-being in the fishing community of Røst in the Lofoten Islands in Northern Norway. Through ethnographic observations, in-depth interviews, and a participatory scenario workshop we develop four narratives centering on the links of nature and ecosystem services. Benefits derived from ecosystem services are fundamental building blocks in the local vision of ‘the good life’ and emerge from a combination of satisfied preferences and struggle, hardships, and capabilities inflicted by a demanding environment and challenging work conditions. Beyond a certain level of meeting basic needs and provisioning of essential public services, simplicity in life and local control over resources and surroundings was preferred over a multitude of other opportunities and services. Well-being was strongly linked to maintenance of identity through traditional practices for harvesting of natural resources, nurturing of skills, social cohesion, and acting meaningfully in one's local environment. In a relational perspective, cultural ecosystem services are constituted and given meaning through interaction with nature. The main policy implication is that contributions of natural and social capital to well-being proved to be hard to meaningfully separate.

Can a new railway track be used to foster smart urban and regional development?

The future Smart City Ebreichsdorf (SMCE) is a fast growing municipality in the area of the metropolitan region of Vienna, Lower Austria and Burgenland. The expansion to a double track railroad of the „Pottendorfer Linie“and the thereby even better connexion to Ebreichsdorf will strengthen this growing process even more. A new train station is built, located on a greenfield site, between the city districts Ebreichsdorf and Unterwaltersdorf. The existing railway track is going to be abandoned. In spatial planning approaches, it’s goal leading to locate future growth in the area of the new train station. Action options, how such an innovative growth process around the railway station could be formed, are absent up to now. The state Lower Austria and the city Ebreichsdorf are aware of this problem. So the idea of planning and implementing a „Smart City“ or a „Smart Urban Region“ at this certain area has moved in focus of considerations. An urban transformation towards a future smart city is necessary. The Smart City concept gets more and more important in the course of urban and regional development. Thereby, new technologies are used to create a sustainable environment and economy in order to ensure the quality of life for the further generations. The participation and awareness of the citizens are of fundamental importance. With a focus on Ebreichsdorf this paper demonstrates how such an impulse can be used for a smart urban and regional development. First results of the ongoing project show, that it is advantageous to involve citizens and main stakeholders as well as all political parties in an early stage. This increases the acceptance and facilitates the further process. Furthermore, the complexity of Smart City is best handled by a team of researchers from various disciplines. In the course of a scenario workshop, it became clear that all different disciplines have different accesses to the same topic. Through this a stimulating discussion and exchange of experiences has been started.

Participation, scenarios and pathways in long-term planning for climate change adaptation

This article describes a climate change adaptation planning process triggered by a group of researchers and stakeholders in a context where no collective responses or long-term plans for protecting a vulnerable coastal system had been initiated, despite local perceptions of vulnerability and risk. The case study shows the application of two methods: scenario workshops and adaptation pathways in the context of a participatory action research methodological design. Participatory action research and qualitative scenario methods are highlighted as accelerators of climate change adaptation processes by calling to action, facilitating and connecting diverse social groups with a stake in a long-term plan towards a more adapted society. The experience leads to the conclusion that planning climate change adaptation has to go far beyond the technical dimension and take into account those affected (in the present and the future) by decisions made. A holistic approach to climate change adaptation planning will depend on the interrelations of managerial and top-down approaches with localized initiatives driven through an inclusive and collective action research process.

Emergence and Transition in London’s Climate Change Adaptation Pathways

Climate change adaptation coevolves with urban development trajectories presenting decision-makers with a choice of positioning adaptation to protect or revise development. This relational view of adaptation in the context of large cities opens questions on the ways in which city and other actors interact. This interaction may be as or more important than resource and information access for shaping the adaptive capacity and direction of such assemblages. Transitions between modes of adaptation are little understood and will likely combine autonomous and deliberate change both incremental and transformative. Using London as a case study, the paper identifies the contemporary adaptation regime to extreme events and its lines of movement. Interviews and a scenario workshop with resilience planners and emergency managers show the orientation of London’s adaptation is firmly positioned in a mode of resilience, protecting development through flexibility. Maintaining resilience to extremes under conditions of economic austerity is seen to result in the shifting of risk management burdens onto those at risk. Self-reliance is emerging as a mechanism for deepening the resilience mode of adaptation. At the same time, when considering potential risks for extreme events in 2035, most planners express a desire for more transformative adaptation that can tackle root causes in social conditions. A gap is revealed between the professional judgment of risk and resilience planning needs and likely trajectories constrained by national administrations and policy.

Sustainability Transitions: Exploring Risk Management and the Future of Adaptation in the Megacity of Lagos

Lagos, a coastal megacity with more than 11 million inhabitants faces serious development challenges in addition to climatic risks and extreme weather events. There are uncertainties about future disaster risk trends and about how to manage and adapt to existing threats in ways that ensure a just and sustainable development trajectory. In this paper, we explore the changes that have occurred in risk management in Lagos over the last 20 years, as part of a broader endeavor towards sustainability. We draw on transition theory to analyze data collected from a scenario workshop and expert interviews conducted over a period of two years, to understand the influences, processes and actors that shape the adaptation-development nexus in Lagos. Findings based on stakeholders voices present a risk management regime firmly oriented towards protecting contemporary development gains and policies, despite Nigeria’s contested development strategy. Future positioning of risk management is described as either maintaining its current goals or shifting towards a position where development is seen as a root cause of risk and a focus for change. Resilience (marginal changes in development to maintain stability) is not foreseen as a likely future choice for Lagos. This is in contrast to many global agendas that promote resilience and reflects the realities of managing risks in the context of contested development.

Climate Change Adaptation Pathways in Kolkata

Disaster risk management and wider processes of adaptation are too often understood in isolation from development. Kolkata faces increasing heatwaves, flood hazard and everyday waterlogging as a result of climate change but the social and spatial distribution of impacts will likely be mediated by historic and contemporary development decisions. The paper reports on a study that has combined a scenario workshop method and expert interviews to surface the views of risk and resilience planners, academics and urban professionals on the adaptation–development nexus. Kolkata is experiencing rapid and fundamental transition in its governance regimes and economic structures as state-led development gives way to stronger market forces. Planners welcome an opening of urban governance but are worried by the speed of change. Transition in risk governance is observed in a predicted shift from a contemporary orientation where capacity is limited but focused on protecting development gains, to one which also embraces the flexibility of resilience.

NEIGHBOURHOOD REGENERATION AT THE GRASSROOTS PARTICIPATION: INCUBATORS’ CO-CREATIVE PROCESS AND SYSTEM

Incubators of Public Spaces is a funded JPI Urban Europe project aiming to support the self-organization of places by enhancing the factors that motivate, encourage, and enable the urban actors to reach common understandings in order to coordinate their actions by reasoned argument, consensus, and cooperation rather than strategic thinking only. By catalyzing citizens’ willingness to ‘do their bit’ for improving spaces, it provides the means to grow and care for places. The paper is organized into three main sections. The first section offers a theoretical underpinning on the roots of self-organization and co-creation in urban interventions. After a brief introduction about the project’s aims, the second section deals with incubators’ co-creative process and system. It describes the running of the scenario workshops and provides an overview of the web platform and its inherent features. The third section presents the results of the application of the incubators method in the regeneration of an Italian neighborhood. It provides some general information about the area, and foresees a set of interventions for both built and open spaces. Conclusions offer early remarks concerning the ongoing experimentation in Incubators.

Pivotal countries, alternate futures: using scenarios to manage American strategy. By Michael F. Oppenheimer

What will Syria look like in 2018? Will Russia be more authoritarian by 2020? Is the Chinese model of capitalism sustainable in the next decade? Such questions are in the minds of many interested in international affairs, be they policy-makers or scholars. Countless pages have been written on these topics, trying to predict or forecast what might happen five, ten, twenty years down the road. But there is another way of thinking about the future besides prediction and Michael F. Oppenheimer's Pivotal countries, alternate futures is its how-to manual. What Oppenheimer proposes is ‘the use of alternate future scenarios to help make better decisions in real time’ (p. 3). They are ‘designed as plausible (not necessarily probable) narratives describing how very different futures could emerge from current circumstances, with markedly different consequences’ (p. 5). These scenarios can be organized around issues, trends or geography. Their utility is ‘to expose the alternate paths already discernible—but often overlooked—in the present, sharpen debate about prevailing trends, and reveal the limited shelf life of extant conventional wisdom’ (p. 5). Oppenheimer has decades of experience in the scenario method, in the private sector, government, think-tanks and academia. This book is a distillation of that experience, written for informed readers, and particularly for policy-makers who use or might use scenarios in their decision-making and for those who run or might run scenario workshops.

ACTVOD-futures workshop – a generic structure for a one-day futures workshop

Purpose This paper introduces a generic structure for a futures workshop, developed especially to be used in brief practically oriented foresight projects. Based on experiences of tens of dozens of workshops where this method has been used, this paper aims to inform and educate practitioners of futures studies on the method and discuss its characteristics. Design/methodology/approach The design of the ACTVOD workshop method was influenced by the need to have a futures workshop design that would encourage creativity and allow for the hosting of a futures workshop in a rather short amount of time. ACTVOD takes advantage from several theoretical insights and methods within futures studies. It combines elements from heuristic problem-solving, scenario workshops (focus on finding action plans towards desired future) and soft systems methodology. Findings ACTVOD is a rather easy and time-efficient way of producing and collecting good-quality insights on the future and bringing those insights to a practical level. Major challenges using it relate to the transition between workshop stages and on reporting, which relies heavily on participants' activity. Originality/value This is the first time the characteristics of the ACTVOD workshop method are thoroughly introduced in an academic journal. Learning of the method would be useful for practitioners of participatory futures studies methods, especially those who are frequently invited to facilitate short workshops for varying audiences.

Airbnb: the future of networked hospitality businesses

Purpose Although networked hospitality businesses as Airbnb are a recent phenomenon, a rapid growth has made them a serious competitor for the hospitality industry with important consequences for tourism and for tourist destinations. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the nature of the phenomenon, its potential further development in the next five years and the impact this developments will have on tourism, on hotels and on city destinations. Design/methodology/approach A literature study, combined with scenario workshops and a Delphi panel, were used to map current trends and uncertainties. With this input, future scenarios were elaborated using the Global Business Network (“scenario cross”) method. Findings Network platforms as Airbnb are often classified under something called the “Sharing Economy”, a denomination that obscures their true nature. Airbnb is a challenging innovation to which traditional hospitality will have to respond. Its impact has at the same time led to a call for regulatory policies. The definition of these policies and the evolution of tourism are variables that determine future scenarios. Attempts to ban the phenomenon mean a disincentive to innovation and protect oligopolistic markets; more receptive policies may have the desired results if tourism grows moderately but in booming destinations they may lead to a harmful commercialization. Originality/value Until now, Airbnb has been described in conceptual studies about the so-called “Sharing economy”, or more recently in empirical studies about isolated effects of holiday rentals. This paper contextualizes the evolution of networked hospitality and seeks to synthesize the sum of its impacts, thus enabling businesses and local governments to define positions and strategies.

Integrated Evaluation for Sustainable River Basin Governance - ADVISOR

This Report synthesizes the main results obtained throughout the ADVISOR research project ("Integrated Evaluation for Sustainable River Basin Governance") funded by the European Commission, under the - ‘Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development’ theme of the 5th Framework Research Programme.The aim of ADVISOR was to improve the understanding of evaluation processes as part of river basin planning and management and to provide a framework supported by a toolkit for the conduct of integrated and participatory evaluations. The project comprised four work-packages.Work Package 1 examined past water project or plan evaluation cases in five EU states and drew insights on the problems of past evaluation practices.Work Package 2 interpreted these past experiences from different analytical angles leading to a theory for an integrated evaluation process, emphasising issues of deliberation, multiple values, quality in the use of information and governance.Work Package 3 moved from theory to practice. Different tools which could contribute to integrated evaluation processes were tested in experimental case applications. These included scenario workshops, mediated modelling supported by a quality assurance protocol, social multi-criteria evaluation, cost-effectiveness analyses and monetary valuation.Work Package 4 aimed at transferring the experience and lessons learned during the ADVISOR project to policy makers, contributing especially to the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive. A guidance document for designing and implementing Integrated Deliberative Decision Processes (IDDP) was developed, detailing a step-by-step procedure to achieve integrated evaluations.The synthesis of the main results achieved throughout the ADVISOR project is presented in this report in three parts: Part A sets the stage for the role of integrated evaluations in river basin planning and management; Part B unfolds the set of relevant principles and tools developed in the project and Part C concludes with futures challenges for integrated evaluation processes.This title belongs to European Water Research SeriesISBN: 9781843391487 (Print)ISBN: 9781780402307 (eBook)

Urban climate change-related effects on extreme heat events in Rostock, Germany

The urban heat island effect poses a challenge in several cities, and may affect human and ecosystem health. It was proven that relatively small urban conglomerations in mid-latitudes, such as the case study region of Rostock, have undergone a considerable effect recently, noticeable particularly in the warm season. Due to climatic changes, these effects are expected to alter in intensity and/or frequency. This was investigated using a model that focuses on interactions between land use and surface temperatures and on specific air conditions in cities. The model enables urban surface temperature differences to be projected with regard to different assumptions of (future or planned) land use/land cover and its specific characteristics. In addition, 99th percentile summer days from the period 1961–1990 and scenario runs from regional climate models (RCMs) were used as an example of extreme heat events. The frequency of occurrence of extreme heat events resembling those occurring in the present day will be up to four (2041–2070) and six (2071–2100) times higher, respectively. Furthermore, the average temperature on defined extreme heat days will rise by 1.6 to 3.4 °C (2041–2070) and 2.2 to 4.4 °C (2071–2100), respectively. The model calculated no significant effects for differences in maximum surface temperatures between land use classes. Some parts of land use change scenarios constructed during scenario workshops in Rostock were integrated into the surface temperature model with regard to climate change adaptation. The results revealed a range of outcomes, from an enlargement of vulnerable areas to the near eradication of climate change-related heat effects in several areas.

Policy instruments for decentralized management of agricultural groundwater abstraction: A participatory evaluation

This paper proposes and analyzes three policy instruments which can be used to enhance farmers' compliance with individual water allocations in a decentralized management context. Three regulation strategies are proposed for the case of groundwater allocations for irrigation: the first relies on economic instruments; the second is based on tools designed to promote pro-social behaviors; and the third combines assumptions from the first two approaches. They are evaluated through 16 scenario workshops involving 124 stakeholders and farmers in five French groundwater basins. Stakeholders' perceptions are analyzed, disentangling the ethical, economic, institutional, social and technical perspectives underlying the stakeholders' arguments for or against the proposed instruments for groundwater-use regulation. The analysis reveals a preference for the strategy that combines economic and social incentives.

Biotechnology versus agroecology: Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop

A scenario workshop methodology was used to obtain various assessments of the prospects of multi-stress resistant plants. As biotechnological breakthroughs they are supposed to counter climate change and food shortages. In Europe, however, green biotechnology is highly controversial and positions have become rather entrenched. In our results, the scenario method showed itself to be highly suited to easing the grip of cognitive entrenchments and hierarchical communication structures. At least within the arena of the workshop, technologies as well as participants are on equal footing and can be grouped into various arrangements. This exposes participants to novel perspectives and engages them in deliberations on alternative science policy options, thus taking existing problems and needs into account rather than adapting society to the solutions and requirements of the envisioned technologies.

Policy framework conditions to foster “system innovation” with some illustration from an international perspective

“System innovation” is a multi-actor process that entails interactions between firms, consumers, policymakers, universities, supply chain actors, societal groups, media etc. In recent years, policymakers have shown growing interest in the role of innovation for addressing ‘grand challenges, such as climate change, energy security, transport and resource efficiency, food safety, obesity, environmental sustainability. This interest has given rise to a debate about ‘system innovation’, large-scale transitions and socio-economic transformations, due to the realization that addressing grand challenges may require shifts to new systems in energy, food, mobility, and housing. System innovation is difficult to manage and steer, for it is an open, uncertain and complex process, involving multiple social groups and co-evolution between various system elements, many of which are outside the immediate control of policymakers. Furthermore, the state is not one actor, but fragmented across different domains (e.g. public sphere, private sphere, civil organisations, government) and levels (e.g. international, national, local). Policymakers cannot bring about these processes on their own, but need to invite all the aforementioned actors to work together through strategical public-private partnerships, demonstration projects, scenario workshops, vision building, public debates, and network management. So, in early phases of system innovation, policymakers tend to act as facilitator, stimulator, and chain manager. In later phases, when there is more clarity about the best technology, market demand, and infrastructure requirements, other policy instruments (e.g. regulations, standards, taxes, subsidies, financial incentives) tend to become more important, aimed at widespread deployment and uptake. Furthermore, national innovation systems (NIS) (i.e., education and training systems, science base, intellectual property rights, university-industry knowledge exchange networks, venture capital availability) provide important generic contexts in which countries address system innovation. It would be useful if future research would develop more dynamic understandings of NIS and investigate if and how NIS need to change to facilitate system innovation (e.g. through mission-oriented R&D, changes in incentive structures for academic researchers).