Abstract
Lagos, a coastal megacity with more than 11 million inhabitants faces serious development challenges in addition to climatic risks and extreme weather events. There are uncertainties about future disaster risk trends and about how to manage and adapt to existing threats in ways that ensure a just and sustainable development trajectory. In this paper, we explore the changes that have occurred in risk management in Lagos over the last 20 years, as part of a broader endeavor towards sustainability. We draw on transition theory to analyze data collected from a scenario workshop and expert interviews conducted over a period of two years, to understand the influences, processes and actors that shape the adaptation-development nexus in Lagos. Findings based on stakeholders voices present a risk management regime firmly oriented towards protecting contemporary development gains and policies, despite Nigeria’s contested development strategy. Future positioning of risk management is described as either maintaining its current goals or shifting towards a position where development is seen as a root cause of risk and a focus for change. Resilience (marginal changes in development to maintain stability) is not foreseen as a likely future choice for Lagos. This is in contrast to many global agendas that promote resilience and reflects the realities of managing risks in the context of contested development.
Highlights
Over the last decade, the study of sustainability transitions has gained increased prominence in climate change studies and urban policy research (Bulkeley et al 2010; World Bank 2012)
We show the extent to which risk management in the city of Lagos is headed for a transition from one regime to another and how this process relates to overall development trends in the city
The findings of the scenario workshop and expert interviews suggest that the prevailing orientation of risk management in Lagos is resistance: to protect people, properties and businesses while providing stability so that current development and economic activities are not undermined by everyday chronic risks and climatic extremes
Summary
The study of sustainability transitions has gained increased prominence in climate change studies and urban policy research (Bulkeley et al 2010; World Bank 2012). Transition in coastal cities of the global south is often entwined with other pressing problems of weak governance, corruption, population pressure, aging infrastructure, inappropriate land-use, insecurity, and poverty, together with a higher susceptibility to extremes events such as floods, storm surges, heat waves, and sea level rise. Knowledge about how these existing pressures and climatic hazards can be managed within the rubric of risk management coupled with adaptation planning will shape the future of urban development and influence the capacity for a sustainability transition
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