Scenario Development Process Research Articles

Patchwork Earth: navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Patchwork Earth: navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Novel Organo Phosphonate-1,2,3 Triazole Derivatives: Molecular Properties Prediction

In the present scenario drug discovery and development processes are expensive and time consuming. To resolve this, we utilised the Lipinski’s rule (Ro5) methodology, which appears to be useful in defining drugability. In the present investigation, we reported the synthesis and evolution of antibacterial activity of title compounds and according to Rule of 5 series, twenty novel ((R)-dimethyl (hydroxy(4-((1-(2-nitrophenyl)-1H-1,2,3-triazol-4-yl)methoxy)phenyl)methyl)phosphonate-1,2,3-triazole derivatives were subjected to molecular properties prediction, drug likeness by Molinspiration (Molinspiration, 2020) and Molsoft (Molsoft, 2020) software.

How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden

Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

Lifestyle changes in mitigation pathways: policy and scientific insights

Lifestyle changes are key factors of the climate mitigation challenge because they drive the demand for energy, goods and food. They have received growing attention in the development and assessment of mitigation pathways, one of the key approaches used to inform mitigation policies. This paper contributes to this emerging literature by examining the political and scientific implications of integrating lifestyle changes into mitigation pathways. We analyse a large sample of pathways, supplemented by interviews with practitioners, to provide a perspective relevant to both scenario production practices themselves and the science-policy process in which they are included. We use three illustrative pathways to describe what it means to explore lifestyle changes and how this exploration can be conducted (indicators, dimensions, precision). We summarize the observed benefits of the explorations of lifestyle changes in scenario production by considering three main contributions of scenarios to policy decision-making: explicit knowledge, mediation tools and framing power. We also discuss why the integration of lifestyle changes poses a potential challenge to the robustness and reliability of pathway production methodologies, which is a condition for their policy-relevance. We therefore argue that the implications of this integration need to be carefully characterized in order to maximize the policy relevance of the analysis without compromising the robustness of the scenario development and assessment process. The nature of lifestyles, which reflect values and preferences and require a multidisciplinary approach, raises significant policy neutrality challenges and scientific challenges. Overcoming these challenges can lead to more policy-relevant pathways: we describe existing approaches in the literature and analyse their contributions and limitations.

Immersive training of first responder squad leaders in untethered virtual reality

We present the VROnSite platform that supports immersive training of first responder units’ on-site squad leaders. Our training platform is fully immersive, entirely untethered to ease use and provides two means of navigation—abstract and natural walking—to simulate stress and exhaustion, two important factors for decision making. With the platform’s capabilities, we close a gap in prior art for first responder training. Our research is closely interlocked with stakeholders from multiple fire brigades to gather early feedback in an iterative design process. In this paper, we present the system’s design rationale, provide insight into the process of training scenario development and present results of a user study with 41 squad leaders from the firefighting domain. Virtual disaster environments with two different navigation types were evaluated using quantitative and qualitative measures. Participants considered our platform highly suitable for training of decision making in complex first responder scenarios and results show the importance of the provided navigation technologies in this context.

Sustainability as a Challenge and Driver for Novel Ecosystemic 6G Business Scenarios

Climate change, the deterioration of the environment and exceeding Earth’s carrying capacity are major threats in operating environment which require new actions in industrialized and digitalized society. In parallel with the global deployment of 5th generation (5G) mobile communication networks, the telecommunication community has already started to envision 6G networks that target the year 2030. This paper discusses the unprecedented opportunities in the future 6G ecosystem specifically from the business perspective and applies a futures-oriented scenario planning method utilized in two strategy workshops in 2020. The paper portrays four scenario themes and a total of 16 alternative future scenarios for the business of 6G. Through the identification of key trends, their interactions, and related uncertainties, the scenario development process generates alternative futures where 6G business strategies are then developed and assessed through the business model perspective. Scenarios were created under four themes: user experience, business, sustainability, and geopolitics and they are discussed in terms of economical, societal, and environmental perspectives. The findings of the paper highlight the achievement of a preferred sustainable future that calls for attention to the privacy and security aspects considering business and regulatory needs: public/governmental, corporate, community, and human perspectives and aims of governance; ecosystem configuration related to users, decentralized business models, and platforms; user empowerment; and the role of service location-specificity. The findings indicate that it is vital to bring together relevant stakeholders to solve sustainability problems within the ecosystem and pay special attention to open ecosystem-focused value configuration and decentralized poly-nodal power configuration, while responding to the diversified demands of various users across the different verticals.

Rationalization of the scenario development process under conditions involving extensive dynamics

Literature analysis has shown that the rationalization of the scenario process is mainly done by reducing the number of input factors, which greatly influences the scope of the output scenarios. The paper proposes the rationalization of the scenario process that is focused on the selection, validation, and classification of factors, but to involve as many factors as possible. The proposed modification involves grouping factors based on their influences using the fuzzy DEMATEL method in which way the scenario model is created. With the proposed model it is possible to use large number factors, significantly shorten the time required for the development of the scenario and achieve the necessary scenario scope. Further, in paper, the model was concretized for the socialization subfield within the sociology field, using real data about factors on the example of the Republic of Serbia.

Tvorba úkolových uskupení jako výsledek transformace scénářů použití ozbrojených sil do požadavků na schopnosti

The aim of the article is to broaden scientific discussion held within the defence and security community on methodological approach to scenario development process. The author brings an innovative look at the concept of modular task force development, which is considered, in his conception, as a result of interconnection between capability requirements arisen from scenario analysis process, and respective type of force units being a part of the current military structure. The author´s approach to task force generation process, illustrated by a case study, is a synthesis of best practices and findings derived from national as well as EU and NATO planning processes. The proposed concept of the task force generation might be perceived as an effective tool for supporting strategic decision-making process.

A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19

In this short paper, we reflect on the recent accumulation of scenarios that have been developed in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Will they be of use to worried individuals and organizations? Or, are they artifacts of the very recent past? We conclude that these quickly‐produced scenarios are not embedded in the realities of affected communities and that the scenario development process should be enhanced to either involve power‐holding stakeholders or, more straightforwardly, to activate local consideration of how the affected community might/might not wish to react to localized dilemmas. Both enhancements will provide action‐orientated insights, beyond that of simply appreciating possible global/regional futures.

Using Scenarios in Public Policy

Futures thinking is a field rich in a wide range of tools and techniques. Of these, scenario development has perhaps the most potential to assist future-focused policy development. This article seeks to stimulate discussion and inform practice in New Zealand, first, by exploring the history of scenarios, and second, by investigating a past scenario development process which sought to guide nationalhealth policy.

Developing a suite of multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenarios using an interdisciplinary approach

Understanding future eruptions and their potential consequences is an important component of volcanic disaster risk reduction. Suites of scenarios are a useful compromise between fully probabilistic and fully deterministic (single scenario) approaches. In this paper, we present an interdisciplinary approach that combines stakeholder (volcanologists, disaster risk researchers, policy advisors, infrastructure managers, and emergency managers) requirements with fundamental science to produce multi-hazard eruption scenarios for a high-risk volcano. We apply this approach to the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) to develop a suite of scenarios (‘DEVORA Scenarios’) that cover the wide spectrum of credible expected eruption activity. Demand was driven by a desire from stakeholders for scenarios that are scientifically credible and relevant for disaster risk management purposes, including evacuation, welfare, recovery, and critical infrastructure disruption planning. Stakeholders were embedded throughout the scenario development process, most importantly at the scoping and design stage, and through multiple formal and informal review cycles. Balancing scientific credibility whilst ensuring the scenarios is relevant to stakeholders was a challenge that required considerable time by all parties. Importantly, the process of scenario development was just as useful as the final product: it facilitated open discourse on major scientific uncertainties and information gaps on AVF volcanism, hazards, and risk. This served two important ends: 1) it allowed scientists to communicate areas of uncertainty to other stakeholders such as emergency managers, and 2) it identified potential future research avenues with an obvious and tangible societal benefit. It is anticipated that the DEVORA Scenarios will serve as a foundation for studies exploring the societal ramifications of a future AVF eruption. The process we outline here can be followed to develop credible and relevant suites of eruption scenarios for disaster risk management purposes in other environments.

Does the facilitator of a scenario development activity need substantive knowledge of the focal topic?

AbstractThis short paper focuses on the facilitation of scenario development activity using the intuitive logics method. Counter‐intuitively, substantive knowledge of the focal scenario topic is not crucial. More important is the facilitator's active, intelligent involvement with participants over the whole of the scenario development process. In scenario development within a single organization, it is useful to have an assistant from the host organization who has both substantive knowledge of the focal topic and an interest in learning about scenario thinking. Within multi‐agency interventions, important issues for the facilitator to resolve are the potentially conflicted goals of participants and the extent of the involvement of senior‐level decision makers.

Prospects of scenario planning for Kenya's protected ecosystems: An example of Mount Marsabit

Place-based scenario planning can systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding interactions between human and the environment. However, to date, few studies explicitly link scenarios at different social-ecological scales, particularly, for forests and Protected Areas (PA) in Eastern Africa. To address this gap, we developed scenario narratives to illuminate how divergent futures may unfold and what opportunities exist to improve future management of Mount Marsabit forest PA in northern Kenya. This ecosystem is under unprecedented degradation, and with use by multiple stakeholders, exhibits a complex governance arrangement. We compared local participants' perspectives on change with predetermined global scenarios from the literature. Thirty-six key informant interviews were conducted to identify drivers of change and potential impacts. Twenty-six participants partook the scenario development process (SDP), from which four divergent but plausible exploratory scenarios were generated namely: a) land use conflicts resolution in the context of traditional governance systems b) strategic advisory group-led governance of Mt. Marsabit PA c) community-led governance of Mt. Marsabit PA, and d) addressing climate change and drought effects in forest through policy development and community inclusion. Results were then compared with themes from global scenario group archetypes. Local stakeholders, as in the global archetypes, emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as major influencers in determining the future (2070) of Mt. Marsabit forest PA. However, stakeholders were less concerned with institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenario's perspectives. Our findings offer a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios' narratives and local perspectives, and contributes to the growing body of place-based scenario studies.

Participatory scenario development process in addressing potential impacts of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem services of Mt. Marsabit forest, Kenya

The Marsabit Forest Reserve (MFR), a green island in an arid environmental setting, generates multiple ecosystem goods and services (ES) to the local community critical for their livelihoods. The forest has been experiencing substantial land conversion for town expansion, agriculture production and settlements threatening long-term ES provision. Sustaining the forest ES under increasing anthropogenic pressures is one of the great challenges of the Marsabit forest community. We used focus group discussions in the thirteen locations around the forest and individual key informant's interviews in the identification of drivers of change and their potential impacts on ES in MFR. We used the scenario development process (SDP) in coming up with four divergent but plausible exploratory scenarios. The study established that the main ES provided by the forest was, water, fuelwood, forage (dry season grazing resource), medicinal plants and timber for construction. Stakeholders identified population pressure, unsustainable utilisation of forest resources, institutional barriers to effective resource management, land use and climate change as the main drivers impacting ES provision in the forest. Land use change and climate change were considered the most significant drivers yet the most uncertain in the future impacting ES provision in the MFR. The SDP identified four alternative future scenarios for the MFR by the year 2044 with the Marsabit we want scenario identified as the most desirable future for the sustainable supply of ES with adequate adaptation to observed changes. Stakeholders came up with a joint action plan implementation matrix for the identified scenario while mitigating the negative aspects of the alternative scenarios. The results support the need for participatory land use planning that takes into to account the growing threat of climate change to natural forest systems.

Automatic Generation of Flight Simulation Scenarios with Aviation Scenario Definition Language

The rise of modeling and simulation has been phenomenal in aviation as a swift, accurate, and cost-effective method for experimentation and training. However, there still exists a lack of common understanding and standardized practices in the simulation scenario development process. This paper presents a detailed overview of the Aviation Scenario Definition Language, which provides a standard scenario specification mechanism in the aviation domain. The Aviation Scenario Definition Language provides a well-structured definition language to formally specify a complete flight simulation scenario. This paper provides the technical details of the Aviation Scenario Definition Language and its underlying Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization standard base object model. A case study for unmanned aerial vehicle flight is presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the Aviation Scenario Definition Language in automatically generating simulation scenario scripts for a target flight simulator.

Formal Verification of Simulation Scenarios in Aviation Scenario Definition Language (ASDL)

Formal methods offer well-defined means for mathematical verification of the functional specifications of software systems. For model-based engineering, model checking is a verification technique that explores all possible system states. The Aviation Scenario Definition Language is a domain-specific language designed based on a scenario development process from a model-driven engineering perspective. It aims at providing a well-structured definition language to specify departure, en route, re-route, and landing scenarios. This paper uses statecharts and a model checker for the verification of each scenario generated and uses examples to demonstrate conformance to the rules established in the statecharts to verify the logic of all future scenarios.

Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development

Energy scenarios are a tool for exploring possible future developments or states of energy systems. However, traditional energy scenarios mainly concentrate on technological feasibility and economic impacts and lack consideration of social feasibility. Participatory methods, meaning the involvement of external scientists and stakeholders in the scenario development process, can integrate different types of knowledge, perspectives, and values to improve energy scenario development. This paper reports on an approach which is deduced from the strengths and weaknesses of current research applying participatory methods to generate qualitative scenarios. Three different participatory methods - envisioning storylines, futures wheel, and evaluation of narratives - are combined in order to balance the strengths and weaknesses of each of them to create transparent, plausible qualitative scenarios without predisposition. At these three workshops, a total of 25 external and eleven internal participants discussed future developments of the German energy transformation (Energiewende). The paper examines whether this approach overcomes the limitations of current approaches and is ultimately suitable for improving energy scenarios. The findings suggest that a combination of different participatory methods and also a variety of participants help to overcome bias, explore different future pathways in depth, and distinguish between certain and uncertain developments.

Tvorba vojenských scénářů

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

Scenario development strategies and process for simulation-based education in anesthesiology

Scenario creation is fundamental to simulation. An effective design is necessary to optimize training. This paper describes the process of creating and applying mannequin-based high-fidelity simulation case scenarios for a graduate program in anesthesiology. The objective of scenario building is to provide an opportunity for trainees to learn the management of both common and rare case scenarios to better prepare them for the written and applied board examinations and real-life situations. Scenario development for high-fidelity simulation requires assembling all the elements to recreate a realistic environment while considering the trainees' different learning styles. The goal is to create scenarios that help the learner build knowledge, skills, and confidence. The following core competencies area addressed in this article: Patient care, Interpersonal and communication skills, Systems-based practice.

Scenario development as a tool for interdisciplinary integration processes in sustainable land use research

This article reflects upon experiences gained through an interdisciplinary integration process in a research project on sustainable land use which was carried out in northeast Germany, exploring how and to what extent the method of scenario development can support cognitive and social integration in interdisciplinary research groups. Integration is seen as a process of joint knowledge production and mutual learning. Examining experiences from the ELaN project, we ask: How did integration take place? How was integration supported and hampered? What has to be considered when planning such a process?Highlighting emergent challenges and opportunities for interdisciplinary integration via scenario development, we demonstrate how content and presentation of the scenarios were modified on the basis of inputs from involved researchers of different disciplines. Through an iterative process, the originally qualitative and rather general scenarios of land use changes have been enriched by quantitative data from different sub-projects and presentation of narrative stories complemented by GIS maps, leading to better integration of results from the sub-projects. Our results show that scenario development processes have to be planned carefully if they aim at integrating interdisciplinary knowledge. In the ELaN consortium, lack of resources available to a sub-project were compensated for by referring to other additional expertise and resources throughout the process. We reflect upon such modifications and identify success factors for the organization of such processes, concluding that scenarios are suitable for interdisciplinary integration in three ways: a) scenarios facilitate the compilation and recombination of existing knowledge and create a new, commonly shared frame for formerly separated knowledge; b) joint scenario development fosters social integration among researchers with different disciplinary backgrounds and supports group building processes and; c) scenarios are able to link new results of different sub-projects and researchers into a joint product which, ultimately, strengthens the integrative character of the project as such.