Abstract
Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.
Highlights
Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies
In Sweden, road freight transport is the dominant mode for domestic transportation, with almost 90% of the total volume of goods being carried by trucks [3]
The road freight transport industry is fragmented and has a competition structure that is strongly oriented toward minimizing costs, a situation that might slow down the rate at which new technology is adopted
Summary
Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions and contributes to congestion.For example, in the European Union, transportation emissions make up 23% of totalCO2 emissions, while road transportation accounts for over 70% [1]; heavy-duty vehicles represent 25% of CO2 emissions from road transportation in Europe [2]. Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. Road freight transport accounts for significant emissions and contributes to congestion. In Sweden, road freight transport is the dominant mode for domestic transportation, with almost 90% of the total volume of goods being carried by trucks [3]. To achieve the United Nations sustainability goals, a sustainable and efficient road freight transport sector is key. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information flows, and artificial intelligence (AI), provides many opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in the road freight transport sector. The road freight transport industry is fragmented and has a competition structure that is strongly oriented toward minimizing costs, a situation that might slow down the rate at which new technology is adopted
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