Rationalization of the scenario development process under conditions involving extensive dynamics

Abstract

Literature analysis has shown that the rationalization of the scenario process is mainly done by reducing the number of input factors, which greatly influences the scope of the output scenarios. The paper proposes the rationalization of the scenario process that is focused on the selection, validation, and classification of factors, but to involve as many factors as possible. The proposed modification involves grouping factors based on their influences using the fuzzy DEMATEL method in which way the scenario model is created. With the proposed model it is possible to use large number factors, significantly shorten the time required for the development of the scenario and achieve the necessary scenario scope. Further, in paper, the model was concretized for the socialization subfield within the sociology field, using real data about factors on the example of the Republic of Serbia.