Saskatchewan River Basin Research Articles

Dam‐induced riverbed degradation in the Saskatchewan River Delta

AbstractRiver deltas formed by the uninterrupted flow of water carrying sediments and nutrients provide many benefits to humans, including natural resources (e.g., water, aquatic, and terrestrial species) and fertile land. However, the sustainability of river deltas is threatened by large hydraulic infrastructure (e.g., upstream dams), other human activities, and climate change. For example, the Saskatchewan River Delta in Northern Canada is threatened because dams upstream interrupt the sediment transport, resulting in declining sediment levels. The lack of sediment affects the ecology and environment of the delta. This paper will address how dam operation can be adapted to decrease erosion and maintain hydrological, ecological, and environmental outcomes from human activities in the Saskatchewan River Basin, especially the South Saskatchewan River and the river delta. The cross‐sectional data along the Saskatchewan River below the E.B. Campbell Dam were considered for unsteady flow simulations via HEC‐RAS. Insufficient sediment reaches the Saskatchewan River Delta, resulting in ecological changes. The purpose is to give decision‐makers or related stakeholders insight into developing strategies for reducing erosion, replenishing moisture, and restoring sediment in the Saskatchewan River Delta to minimize dam‐induced issues.

Analysis of Groundwater Depletion in the Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada from Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW and Satellite Gravimetry

The Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) of central Canada plays a crucial role in the Canadian Prairies. Yet, climate change and human action constitute a real threat to its hydrological processes. This study aims to evaluate and analyze groundwater spatial and temporal dynamics in the SRB. Groundwater information was derived and compared using two different approaches: (1) a mathematical modeling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Modular hydrologic model (MODFLOW) and (2) gravimetric satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its follow-on (GRACE-FO). Both methods show generalized groundwater depletion in the SRB that can reach −1 m during the study period (2002–2019). Maximum depletion appeared especially after 2011. The water balance simulated by SWAT-MODFLOW showed that SRB could be compartmented roughly into three main zones. The mountainous area in the extreme west of the basin is the first zone, which is the most dynamic zone in terms of recharge, reaching +0.5 m. The second zone is the central area, where agricultural and industrial activities predominate, as well as potable water supplies. This zone is the least rechargeable and most intensively exploited area, with depletion ranging from +0.2 to −0.4 m during the 2002 to 2011 period and up to −1 m from 2011 to 2019. Finally, the third zone is the northern area that is dominated by boreal forest. Here, exploitation is average, but the soil does not demonstrate significant storage power. Briefly, the main contribution of this research is the quantification of groundwater depletion in the large basin of the SRB using two different methods: process-oriented and satellite-oriented methods. The next step of this research work will focus on the development of artificial intelligence approaches to estimate groundwater depletion from a combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO and a set of multisource remote sensing data.

Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Indices under Climate Change Scenarios in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

Climate change has amplified the severity of droughts with potentially adverse impacts on agriculture in western Canada. This study assessed meteorological and agricultural drought in the Southern Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) using an array of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), and the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI). These indices were evaluated using multiple regional climate model (RCM) projections assuming 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 °C thresholds of global warming. A modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-M) was used to simulate the soil water content (SWC), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and potential evapotranspiration. The results of a sensitivity analysis using the SUFI-2 method in SWAT-CUP showed that the model performed well with BIAS lower than 10% and NSE and R higher than 0.7, and the range of SWC output closely matched the observed SWC. According to the RCM projections, the annual precipitation increases for all three global temperature thresholds while the annual mean temperature increases at a greater rate than the rise in global mean temperature. The projected PDSI and the SPEI suggest that drought duration and severity will exceed historical values while SPI will remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, severe drought conditions (SMDI < 2.0) are more frequent under the 3.0 °C global temperature scenario. The mean ETDI was historically 0.58 while the projected value is 0.2, 0.1, and −0.2 for the first to third scenarios, respectively. Simulated values, spatial maps, and heat maps of SMDI and ETDI illustrated that Canesm2.CRCM5 projects the driest conditions among all the RCMs. Agricultural drought indices, which incorporate SWC data, show more significant effects than meteorological drought indices. The increasing dryness will potentially impact agricultural crop production, particularly under the third scenario (3 °C) in the SSRB.

Estimation of Aquifer Storativity Using 3D Geological Modeling and the Spatial Random Bagging Simulation Method: The Saskatchewan River Basin Case Study (Central Canada)

Hydrosystems in the Saskatchewan River Basin of the Canadian Prairies are subject to natural and socioeconomic pressures. Increasingly, these strong pressures are exacerbating problems of water resource accessibility and depletion. Unfortunately, the geometric heterogeneity of the aquifers and the presence of lithologically varied layers complicate groundwater flow studies, hydrodynamic characterization, and aquifer storativity calculations. Moreover, in recent hydrogeological studies, hydraulic conductivity has been the subject of much more research than storativity. It is in this context that the present research was conducted, to establish a 3D hydrostratigraphic model that highlights the geological (lithology, thickness, and depth) and hydrodynamic characteristics of the aquifer formations and proposes a new uncertainty framework for groundwater storage estimation. The general methodology is based on collecting and processing a very fragmentary and diverse multi-source database to develop the conceptual model. Data were harmonized and entered into a common database management system. A large quantity of geological information has been implemented in a 3D hydrostratigraphic model to establish the finest geometry of the SRB aquifers. Then, the different sources of uncertainty were controlled and considered in the modeling process by developing a randomized modeling system based on spatial random bagging simulation (SRBS). The results of the research show the following: Firstly, the distribution of aquifer levels is controlled by tectonic activity and erosion, which further suggests that most buried valleys on the Prairies have filled over time, likely during multiple glaciations in several depositional environments. Secondly, the geostatistical study allowed us to choose optimal interpolation variographic parameters. Finally, the final storativity maps of the different aquifer formations showed a huge potential of groundwater in SRB. The SRBS method allowed us to calculate the optimal storativity values for each mesh and to obtain a final storativity map for each formation. For example, for the Paskapoo Formation, the distribution grid of groundwater storage shows that the east part of the aquifer can store up to 5920 × 103 m3/voxel, whereas most areas of the west aquifer part can only store less than 750 × 103 m3/voxel. The maximum storativity was attributed to the Horseshoe Canyon Formation, which contains maximal geological reserves ranging from 107 to 111 × 109 m3. The main contribution of this research is the proposed 3D geological model with hydrogeological insights into the study area, as well as the use of a new statistical method to propagate the uncertainty over the modeling domain. The next step will focus on the hydrodynamic modeling of groundwater flow to better manage water resources in the Saskatchewan River Basin.

Testing the Predictive Power of Hydro-Economic Supply-Side Input–Output Models Under Different Water Availability and Economic Conditions Over Time in a Transboundary River Basin

Although the temporal transferability of input–output (IO) models has been examined before, no study has investigated the impacts of changing water availability conditions over time, e.g., due to climate change, on the predictive power of water-inclusive IO models. To address this gap, we investigate the performance of inter-regional supply-side input–output (ISIO) models that incorporate precipitation and water intake under varying climates over time in a transboundary water management context. Using the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada as a case study, we develop four ISIO models based on available economic and hydrological data from years with different climatic conditions, i.e., two dry and two wet years. Accounting for price changes over these years, our findings indicate that the joint impact of changes in water availability and economic structural changes on economic output can be considerable. The results furthermore show that each model performs particularly well in predicting the economic output for similar climatic years. The models remain reliable in predicting economic outputs over several years as long as changes in water availability are within the range observed in the water-inclusive base year ISIO model.

Effects of regional climate, hydrology and river impoundment on long-term patterns and characteristics of dissolved organic matter in semi-arid northern plains rivers

Diverse environmental and anthropogenic factors, such as the ongoing reservoir constructions may influence riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) properties. This has important implications for river water quality, particularly when reservoirs are a source of drinking water. Simultaneous studies of multidecadal trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) are scarce. We studied the patterns in DOC and DON concentration in two major rivers of the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) basin over a 42-year period (1978–2019). We also examined the impact of a large reservoir on riverine DOC properties. Contrary to many studies, we did not find a long-term increase in DOC and DON concentration, and DOC and DON patterns were not always synchronous. In an agriculture dominated watershed like the SSR basin, agricultural land use (e.g., nitrogen-fertilizer application) could influence DOC and DON concentration differently, potentially resulting in asynchronous patterns over time. River discharge was an important driver of DOM patterns. Regional precipitation in the lower SSR basin may also influence DOM patterns in locations where runoff contribution is greater. These regional factors explained greater variability in DOM compared to global scale indices (e.g., Pacific decadal oscillation) due to their direct control on DOM. A travel time corrected approach to account for the lengthy reservoir turnover time showed that a large reservoir caused a reduction in allochthonous DOC characteristics through photodegradation and perhaps, an increase in autochthonous characteristics. Our results illustrate: 1) the increase in DOM concentrations seen in the northern hemisphere is not present in semi-arid prairie rivers, 2) Controls on different DOM components could be different, and 3) large reservoirs may modify riverine DOC composition due to longer water residence time.

Comparing paleo reconstructions of warm and cool season streamflow (1400–2018) for the North and South Saskatchewan River sub-basins, Western Canada

The North and South Saskatchewan River sub-basins comprise the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB), which originates in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains of Alberta (Canada) and Montana (USA), extending across the vast landscape of three Canadian Provinces. The SRB is the most populated region of the Northern Great Plains, where water demands from agriculture, industry, and municipalities can be a substantial proportion of supply during periods of low flow and hydrological drought. Changing climatic conditions and shifts between periods of extreme wet and dry weather emphasize the need for a better understanding of past and future seasonal variability of the surface water balance within and between the sub-basins. Climate extremes, such as hydrological drought and excessive moisture conditions occurring simultaneously can create detrimental effects. Using a multi-species network of over 80 tree-ring chronologies, warm (May through August) and cool (December through April) season streamflow (1400–2018) were independently reconstructed for the North and South Saskatchewan River sub-basins. Departures from seasonal flow and spectral and wavelet analyses of the reconstructions indicate significant variability at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales.

Veterinary antimicrobials in cattle feedlot environs and irrigation conveyances in a high-intensity agroecosystem in southern Alberta, Canada

The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) is considered one of the most intensively farmed regions in Canada, with high densities of livestock and expansive areas of irrigated cropland. We measured concentrations of seven veterinary antimicrobials (VAs) in 114 surface water samples from feedlot environs and 219 samples from irrigation conveyances in the SSRB. Overall, detection frequencies in feedlot environs were 100% for chlortetracycline (CTC) and tetracycline (TC), 94% for monensin (MON), 84% for tylosin (TYL), 72% for lincomycin (LIN), 66% for erythromycin (ERY), and 23% for sulfamethazine (SMZ). For irrigation conveyances, detection frequencies for CTC and TC remained high (94–100%), but dropped to 18% for ERY, 15% for TYL, 10% for MON, and 4% for SMZ. Lincomycin was not detected in irrigation conveyance water. Maximum concentrations of VAs ranged from 1384 µg L−1 (TC) to 17 ng L−1 (SMZ) in feedlot environs while those in irrigation conveyances were 155 ng L−1 (TC) to 29 ng L−1 (ERY). High detection frequencies and median concentrations of VAs in both feedlot environs and irrigation conveyances were associated with high amounts of precipitation. However, an irrigation district (ID) with high livestock density (Lethbridge Northern) did not exhibit higher concentrations of VAs compared to IDs with less livestock, while levels of VAs in irrigation conveyances were less influenced by the degree of surface runoff. The ubiquity of CTC and TC in our study is likely a reflection of its widespread use in intensive livestock operations. Additional investigation is required to link environmental concentrations of VAs with livestock densities and increase our understanding of potential antimicrobial resistance in high-intensity agroecosystems.

A Modified SWAT Model to Simulate Soil Water Content and Soil Temperature in Cold Regions: A Case Study of the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada

Soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature are important hydrologic state variables. Accurate model simulation is critical in hydrologic regimes in cold regions dominated by spring snowmelt. In this study, we developed a combined physically-based soil temperature and energy-balance rain-on-snow (ROS) module for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and applied it to the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB). We calibrated the SWAT base (SWAT-B) model and the SWAT modified (SWAT–M) model using daily measured soil temperature and SWC by hydrological response unit (HRU) for the years 2015 to 2020. The results of sensitivity analysis using the SUFI-2 technique in SWAT-CUP indicated that eight parameters have the most significant (p < 0.5) effect on streamflow, soil moisture, and snowmelt. Statistics for the SWAT-B and SWAT-M streamflow models revealed that the new module improved the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) from 0.39 to 0.71 and 0.42 to 0.76 for calibration and validation, respectively. The statistics for SWAT-simulated daily SWC showed that the measured data were a better fit with SWAT-M versus the SWAT-B output. Furthermore, SWAT-B values exceeded SWAT-M output and field measurements, and thus, the range of SWAT-M results was a better fit with observations. SWAT-B tended to underestimate soil temperature in the cold season, while SWAT-M significantly improved soil temperature simulation for winter. This new SWAT module simulated freeze-thaw cycles and captured the influence of snow cover on surface soil ice-water content. Spatial analysis of SWC and soil temperature across the SSRB showed that the SWAT-M model predicted more SWC and lower soil temperature in the western part of SSRB than SWAT-B, with higher soil temperature and lower SWC in the eastern region.

On the implementation of the dynamically zoned target release reservoir model in the GEM-Hydro streamflow forecasting system

This study investigates the benefit of the dynamically zoned target release (DZTR) reservoir model to improve upon the natural lake model for storage and outflow simulations of regulated reservoirs. Simulations were performed with the GEM-Hydro hydrologic model over the Saskatchewan River Basin to study different implementation scenarios for DZTR, applicable for varying degrees of available observed data. Results show that DZTR brings significant improvements upon the natural lake model. Outflow simulations are always better with DZTR than with the natural lake model, while storage performances are sensitive to the implementation methodology considered. Even in the absence of observed lake level data, storage simulations with DZTR are more realistic than the natural lake model. Automatic calibration of the 76 DZTR model parameters did not significantly improve results upon the general implementation methodology. Given the performance variability across reservoirs and the subjective steps involved in the DZTR implementation, it seems risky to implement DZTR without any flow observations downstream of a reservoir.

Comparing the applicability of hydro-economic modelling approaches for large-scale decision-making in multi-sectoral and multi-regional river basins

A traditional engineering-based approach to hydro-economic modelling is to connect a partial equilibrium economic assessment, e.g., changes in sectoral production, to a detailed water resources system model. Since the 1990s, another approach emerged where water data are incorporated into a macro-economic model, e.g., a computable general equilibrium or input-output model, to estimate both direct and indirect economic impacts. This study builds on these different approaches and compares the outcomes from three models in the transboundary Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada. The economic impacts of drought and socioeconomic development are estimated using an engineering-based model, a macro-economic model, and a model that integrates a water resources model and a macro-economic model. Findings indicate that although the integrated model is more challenging to develop, its results seem most relevant for water allocation, owing to capturing both regional and sectoral economic interdependencies and key features of the water resources system in more detail.

A streamflow-oriented ranking-based methodological framework to combine multiple precipitation datasets across large river basins

Hydrologic-Land Surface Models (H-LSMs) are subject to input uncertainties arising from climate forcing data, especially precipitation. For better streamflow simulations and predictions, the generation of a hybrid dataset by combining existing precipitation products has attracted considerable interest in recent years. To assess the accuracy of the hybrid dataset, in-situ precipitation-gauge stations are used as a reference point. However, the robustness of the hybrid dataset in representing spatial details can be problematic when the evaluation uses only a sparse network of in-situ observations at regional or basin scales. This study aims to develop a methodological framework to generate hybrid precipitation datasets based on the model performance of streamflow simulations that are spatially representative across large river basins. The framework is illustrated using a Canadian H-LSM known as MESH (Modélisation Environmentale communautaire – Surface Hydrology) in the Saskatchewan River basin, Canada, for the period 2002–2010. Five regional and global precipitation products (Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset at Princeton University (Princeton); the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to the ERA-Interim (WFDEI) augmented by Climatic Research Unit (WFDEI [CRU]) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (WFDEI [GPCC]); North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR); and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA)) were included as candidates in this study. Results indicate that the generation of a hybrid dataset based on hydrological evaluation was useful for improving H-LSM modelling skills. Hybrid datasets showed a similar or better model performance compared to that of the best basin-wide precipitation product in the headwaters and gradually performed better downstream and at the basin outlet. When multiple products are combined model performance can be further enhanced by considering seasonality with respect to the hydrological regime of the river basin. This study demonstrates the usefulness of hybrid datasets in a large-scale river basin with low climate station network density.

Population genetics of Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the upper Athabasca River basin.

Freshwater ecosystems are negatively impacted by a variety of anthropogenic stressors, with concomitant elevated rates of population decline for freshwater aquatic vertebrates. Because reductions in population size and extent can negatively impact genetic diversity and gene flow, which are vital for sustained local adaptation, it is important to measure these characteristics in threatened species that may yet be rescued from extinction. Across its native range, Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) extent and abundance are in decline due to historic overharvest, invasive non‐native species, and habitat loss. In Alberta's Eastern Slope region, populations at the range margin have progressively been lost, motivating us to better understand the amount and distribution of genetic variation in headwater habitats and some downstream sites where they continue to persist. Across this region, we sampled 431 Bull Trout from 20 sites in the Athabasca and Saskatchewan River basins and assayed 10 microsatellite loci to characterize within‐ and among‐population genetic variation. The Saskatchewan and Athabasca River basins contained similar levels of heterozygosity but were differentiated from one another. Within the Athabasca River basin, five genetically differentiated clusters were found. Despite the evidence for genetic differentiation, we did not observe significant isolation‐by‐distance patterns among these sites. Our findings of ample genetic diversity and no evidence for hybridization with non‐native Brook Trout in headwater habitats provide motivation to ameliorate downstream habitats and remove anthropogenic barriers to connectivity towards the goal of long‐term persistence of this species.

Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to alter the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. A realistic assessment of future climate change and inter-annual variability is required to meet a growing demand for water supplies in all major use sectors. This study focuses on changes in climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) above Edmonton, AB, Canada, using the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale communautaire—Surface Hydrology) model. The bias-corrected ensemble of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) data is used to drive MESH for two 60-year time periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season, there is significant trend in spring (0.62) and fall (0.41) and insignificant in summer (0.008). Winter extreme minimum temperature and summer extreme maximum temperature are increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future and 5–6 °C in the far future. Annual runoff increases by 19% compared to base period. The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the NSRB.

Integrated modelling to assess the impacts of water stress in a transboundary river basin: Bridging local-scale water resource operations to a river basin economy

In this study, we develop a hydro-economic modelling framework for river-basin scales by integrating a water resources system model and an economic model. This framework allows for the representation of both local-scale features, such as reservoirs, diversions, and water licenses and priorities, and regional- and provincial-scale features, such as cross-sectoral and inter-regional connectedness and trade flows. This framework is able to: (a) represent nonlinearities and interactions that cannot be represented by either of typical water resources or economic models; (b) analyze the sensitivity of macro-scale economy to different local water management decisions (called ‘decision levers’ herein); and (c) identify water allocation strategies that are economically sound across sectors and regions. This integrated model is applied to the multi-jurisdictional Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada. Our findings reveal that an economically optimal water allocation strategy can mitigate the economic losses of water stress up to 80% compared to the existing water allocation strategy. We draw lessons from our analysis and discuss how integrated inter-regional hydro-economic modelling can benefit vulnerability assessment and robust decision making.

Tracing total and dissolved material in a western Canadian basin using quality control samples to guide the selection of fingerprinting parameters for modelling

The source dynamics of total and dissolved material in riverine systems are being affected by anthropogenic activities resulting in the degradation of waterways worldwide. Identifying the main sources of total and dissolved material is thus central to the management of increasingly scarce water resources. Here, we utilize data generated from water quality monitoring programs to investigate the sources of total and dissolved material in a large, semi-arid basin in western Canada. Our research focuses on the confluence of two major tributaries in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in the Province of Alberta: the Bow River (25,611 km2) and the Oldman River (28,270 km2). A tributary tracing technique coupled with a Deconvolutional-MixSIAR (D-MIXSIAR) modelling approach is used to estimate the potential source contributions of total and dissolved material from major tributary sites to target node sites on the main stem of the Bow River and Oldman River in addition to target nodes downstream of their confluence. In total, 812 samples were taken from 29 sites across the SSRB. A novel approach to selecting fingerprints for modelling is presented based on the analyses of additional quality control samples (146 duplicate and 172 blank samples). Overall, the Rocky Mountain headwater catchments were found to dominate the supply of material modelled using total recoverable (68%) and dissolved (76%) metals. There were seasonal fluctuations in source dynamics evident where the Bow River dominated the supply of total (69%) and dissolved (57%) material during the ice-covered season (November-March), and the Oldman River dominated the supply of total (73%) and dissolved (59%) material during the open water season (April-October). On the one hand, these seasonal dynamics are potentially the result of the extensive regulation of flow, particularly along the Bow River. On the other hand, the intensification of agriculture in the prairie/plain catchments may also facilitate the excess supply of total relative to dissolved material. For example, the Little Bow River, with ~70% agricultural land cover, contributed ~14 times more total material than anticipated based on discharge and 1.6 times more than anticipated based on unit area during the open water season. Overall, this research has improved our understanding of the source dynamics of total and dissolved material in the SSRB, providing the foundation for focussed studies targeting the main sources of total and dissolved material in this large, semi-arid basin in western Canada. In addition, our research highlights the potential of using existent data generated from water quality monitoring programs along with quality control best practices to help improve our understanding of the source dynamics of total and dissolved material in waterways around the world.

Assessment and projection of the water budget over western Canada using convection-permitting weather research and forecasting simulations

Abstract. Water resources in cold regions in western Canada face severe risks posed by anthropogenic global warming as evapotranspiration increases and precipitation regimes shift. Although understanding the water cycle is key for addressing climate change issues, it is difficult to obtain high spatial- and temporal-resolution observations of hydroclimatic processes, especially in remote regions. Climate models are useful tools for dissecting and diagnosing these processes, especially the convection-permitting (CP) high-resolution regional climate simulation, which provides advantages over lower-resolution models by explicitly representing convection. In addition to better representing convective systems, higher spatial resolution also better represents topography, mountain meteorology, and highly heterogeneous geophysical features. However, there is little work with convection-permitting regional climate models conducted over western Canada. Focusing on the Mackenzie River and Saskatchewan River basins, this study investigated the surface water budget and atmospheric moisture balance in historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) projections using 4 km CP Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). We compared the high-resolution 4 km CP WRF and three common reanalysis datasets, namely the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis interim dataset (ERA-Interim). High-resolution WRF outperforms the reanalyses in balancing the surface water budget in both river basins with much lower residual terms. For the pseudo-global-warming scenario at the end of the 21st century with representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) radiative forcing, both the Mackenzie River and Saskatchewan River basins show increases in the amplitude for precipitation and evapotranspiration and a decrease in runoff. The Saskatchewan River basin (SRB) shows a moderate increase in precipitation in the west and a small decrease in the east. Combined with a significant increase in evapotranspiration in a warmer climate, the Saskatchewan River basin would have a larger deficit of water resources than in the current climate based on the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) simulation. The high-resolution simulation also shows that the difference of atmospheric water vapour balance in the two river basins is due to flow orientation and topography differences at the western boundaries of the two basins. The sensitivity of water vapour balance to fine-scale topography and atmospheric processes shown in this study demonstrates that high-resolution dynamical downscaling is important for large-scale water balance and hydrological cycles.

The economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change: A transboundary river basin supply-side input-output analysis

Finding sustainable pathways to efficiently allocate limited available water resources among increasingly competing water uses has become crucial due to climate-change-induced water shortages and increasing water demand. This has led to an urgent need for the inclusion of economic principles, models, and methods in water resources management. Although several studies have developed macro-economic models to evaluate the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies, many if not most ignore the hydrological boundaries of transboundary river basins. Furthermore, of those using input-output (IO) models, only a handful have applied supply-side IO models. In this paper, we present one of the first attempts to develop an inter-regional, supply-side IO modelling framework for a multi-jurisdictional, transboundary river basin to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change. Applying this framework to the Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada encompassing three provinces, we investigate the economic impacts of two different water supply restriction scenarios on the entire river basin and its sub-basins individually. We find that in the face of climate-change-induced water shortage, economic losses can be reduced by almost 50% by adopting appropriate management practices, including prioritization of water allocation, using alternative water sources, and water re-use technologies.

Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction of 400 years of past flows at a weekly time step for major rivers of Western Canada

Abstract. The assumption of stationarity in water resources no longer holds, particularly within the context of future climate change. Plausible scenarios of flows that fluctuate outside the envelope of variability of the gauging data are required to assess the robustness of water resource systems to future conditions. This study presents a novel method of generating weekly time step flows based on tree-ring chronology data. Specifically, this method addresses two long-standing challenges with paleo-reconstruction: (i) the typically limited predictive power of tree-ring data at the annual and sub-annual scale and (ii) the inflated short-term persistence in tree-ring time series and improper use of pre-whitening. Unlike the conventional approach, this method establishes relationships between tree-ring chronologies and naturalized flow at a biennial scale to preserve persistence properties and variability of hydrological time series. Biennial flow reconstructions are further disaggregated to weekly flow reconstructions, according to the weekly flow distribution of reference 2-year instrumental periods, identified as periods with broadly similar tree-ring properties to those of every 2-year paleo-period. The Saskatchewan River basin (SaskRB) in Western Canada is selected as a study area, and weekly flows in its four major tributaries are extended back to the year 1600. The study shows that the reconstructed flows properly preserve the statistical properties of the reference flows, particularly in terms of short- to long-term persistence and the structure of variability across timescales. An ensemble approach is presented to represent the uncertainty inherent in the statistical relationships and disaggregation method. The ensemble of reconstructed weekly flows are publicly available for download from https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0139 (Slaughter and Razavi, 2019).

High-resolution regional climate modeling and projection over western Canada using a weather research forecasting model with a pseudo-global warming approach

Abstract. Climate change poses great risks to western Canada's ecosystem and socioeconomical development. To assess these hydroclimatic risks under high-end emission scenario RCP8.5, this study used the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model at a convection-permitting (CP) 4 km resolution to dynamically downscale the mean projection of a 19-member CMIP5 ensemble by the end of the 21st century. The CP simulations include a retrospective simulation (CTL, 2000–2015) for verification forced by ERA-Interim and a pseudo-global warming (PGW) for climate change projection forced with climate change forcing (2071–2100 to 1976–2005) from CMIP5 ensemble added on ERA-Interim. The retrospective WRF-CTL's surface air temperature simulation was evaluated against Canadian daily analysis ANUSPLIN, showing good agreements in the geographical distribution with cold biases east of the Canadian Rockies, especially in spring. WRF-CTL captures the main pattern of observed precipitation distribution from CaPA and ANUSPLIN but shows a wet bias near the British Columbia coast in winter and over the immediate region on the lee side of the Canadian Rockies. The WRF-PGW simulation shows significant warming relative to CTL, especially over the polar region in the northeast during the cold season, and in daily minimum temperature. Precipitation changes in PGW over CTL vary with the seasons: in spring and late autumn precipitation increases in most areas, whereas in summer in the Saskatchewan River basin and southern Canadian Prairies, the precipitation change is negligible or decreased slightly. With almost no increase in precipitation and much more evapotranspiration in the future, the water availability during the growing season will be challenging for the Canadian Prairies. The WRF-PGW projected warming is less than that by the CMIP5 ensemble in all seasons. The CMIP5 ensemble projects a 10 %–20 % decrease in summer precipitation over the Canadian Prairies and generally agrees with WRF-PGW except for regions with significant terrain. This difference may be due to the much higher resolution of WRF being able to more faithfully represent small-scale summer convection and orographic lifting due to steep terrain. WRF-PGW shows an increase in high-intensity precipitation events and shifts the distribution of precipitation events toward more extremely intensive events in all seasons. Due to this shift in precipitation intensity to the higher end in the PGW simulation, the seemingly moderate increase in the total amount of precipitation in summer east of the Canadian Rockies may underestimate the increase in flooding risk and water shortage for agriculture. The change in the probability distribution of precipitation intensity also calls for innovative bias-correction methods to be developed for the application of the dataset when bias correction is required. High-quality meteorological observation over the region is needed for both forcing high-resolution climate simulation and conducting verification. The high-resolution downscaled climate simulations provide abundant opportunities both for investigating local-scale atmospheric dynamics and for studying climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems.