Saskatchewan River Basin Research Articles

Fair water resources allocation with application to the south saskatchewan river basin

A formal decision making methodology is presented for equitably allocating water among competing users in a river basin when taking into account both the societal and physical systems aspects of the allocation problem. More specifically, within the societal component of the decision problem, multiple participants, their multiple objectives, equity principles, and economic factors are taken into account, while the physical systems part reflects relevant hydrologic and environmental factors. The Cooperative Water Allocation Model (CWAM) incorporates these societal and physical systems concerns within the framework of a large-scale optimization program which is divided into two main steps. Firstly, water is allocated among users based on existing legal water rights regimes or agreements. In the second step, water and associated benefits are reallocated among stakeholders to maximize basin-wide welfare. The CWAM methodology is used to study the South Saskatchewan River Basin located in Alberta, Canada, to demonstrate how it can be conveniently applied to a complex water allocation problem. Une méthodologie de prise de décision formelle est présentée pour répartir équitablement l'eau parmi les utilisateurs concurrents dans un bassin de rivière, en tenant en compte les aspects sociaux et physiques des systèmes du problème de la répartition. Plus précisément, plusieurs participants, leurs objectifs multiples, ainsi que les principes d'équité et les facteurs économiques au sein de la société composants le problème de la décision sont pris en compte; tandis que, la partie de systèmes physiques reflète les facteurs hydrologiques et environnementaux pertinents. La coopérative d’Allocation de l'eau Modèle (CWAM) intègre ces préoccupations sociétales et physiques des systèmes dans le cadre d'un programme d'optimisation à grande échelle qui est divisé en deux étapes principales. Tout d'abord, l'eau est répartie entre utilisateurs basés sur des droits légaux ou accordés sur le partage de l'eau. Dans la deuxième étape, l'eau et les bénéfices associés sont réaffectés entre les intervenants afin de maximiser le bien-être de l'ensemble du bassin. La méthodologie CWAM est utilisée pour étudier le bassin de la rivière Saskatchewan Sud (situé en Alberta, Canada), et de démontrer comment cette méthodologie peut être aisément appliquée à un problème complexe de répartition de l'eau.

Water Governance in Chile and Canada: a Comparison of Adaptive Characteristics

We compare the structures and adaptive capacities of water governance regimes that respond to water scarcity or drought in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of western Canada and the Elqui River Basin (EB) in Chile. Both regions anticipate climate change that will result in more extreme weather events including increasing droughts. The SSRB and the EB represent two large, regional, dryland water basins with significant irrigated agricultural production but with significantly different governance structures. The Canadian governance situation is characterized as decentralized multilevel governance with assigned water licenses; the Chilean is characterized as centralized governance with privatized water rights. Both countries have action at all levels in relation to water scarcity or drought. This structural comparison is based on studies carried out in each region assessing the adaptive capacity of each region to climate variability in the respective communities and applicable governance institutions through semistructured qualitative interviews. Based on this comparison, conclusions are drawn on the adaptive capacity of the respective water governance regimes based on four dimensions of adaptive governance that include: responsiveness, learning, capacity, including information, leadership, and equity. The result of the assessment allows discussion of the significant differences in terms of ability of distinct governance structures to foster adaptive capacity in the rural sector, highlights the need for a better understanding of the relationship of adaptive governance and good governance, and the need for more conceptual work on the interconnections of the dimensions of adaptive governance.

Policy preferences for water sharing in Alberta, Canada

Abstract Increasing water extraction, a lack of environmental flows and escalating urban demand for water has intensified the political need to find acceptable ways of sharing available water. This paper studies the public's views towards water sharing and policy options in four locations in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta, Canada, each experiencing differing levels of resource dependence. Two locations are in the southern region of the SSRB which is most affected by scarcity and environmental degradation due to the current level of water extraction; while the two locations in the northern region have far less exposure to these problems. Regression analysis on policy preferences for water sharing found that people who live in areas that are more urban (measured by population density and resource dependence) tend to support policies that prioritize the environment, as well as policies that vest a high level of control in government. People who live in areas that are more rural tend to support policies that protect existing water right holders. Other important influences on people's views include age, income, membership of environmental and water groups and having had a rural childhood. Other analysis suggests that the differing levels of scarcity and environmental degradation in different locations are associated with policy preferences, especially when it comes to policies aiming at reducing existing licence holders' access to water in order to secure more water for the environment.

Effects of Climate Change on the Surface-Water Management of the South Saskatchewan River Basin

AbstractThe Modified Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (MISBA) model, the Water Resources Management Model (WRMM) of Alberta Environment, and the Irrigation District Model (IDM) of Alberta Agriculture Food and Rural Development were used to assess the future outlook of water resource management of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta under the potential impacts of climate change. Using the SSRB hydrometeorological base data from 1928–1995, potential effects of climate change on the SSRB for 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 were simulated by MISBA, IDM, and WRMM with the climate scenarios projected by four general circulation models forced by emissions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under these climate projections, MISBA simulated a significant decrease in the mean annual average and mean annual maximum streamflows over selected nodes within the SSRB; the irrigation water demand projected by IDM is expected to increase progressively over the 21st century; ...

Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta

The North Saskatchewan River basin is a large watershed in central Alberta that provides water for a range of stakeholders, including large municipalities, agricultural operations, power generation, and resource extraction industries. This study assesses potential future changes in snowpack for the North Saskatchewan River watershed in response to a range of GCM-derived climate warming scenarios representing the periods from 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), and 2070-2099 (2080s). The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) spatial hydrometeorological model is applied to simulate potential changes in the zero degree isotherm, precipitation phase, watershed average maximum spring snow water equivalent (SWE), the dates of maximum and minimum SWE, and snowmelt period for these future climate scenarios. Climate warming is likely to result in an upwards shift in elevation of the zero degree isotherm, with a transition to more precipitation occurring as rain than snow. Although watershed average maximum SWE may not change under future conditions, the timing of spring snowmelt onset is likely to change under the future climate scenarios applied. It is demonstrated that increased air temperatures are expected to result in substantial changes in snowpack processes in the North Saskatchewan River watershed.

Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

The ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system was set up to simulate the impacts of climate change on the hydrological responses of the 3856-km2 Cline River watershed, the major headwater of the upper North Saskatchewan River basin in central Alberta, Canada. The physical–conceptual ACRU model was set up to simulate all elements of the hydrological cycle on a daily time step for the 1961–1990 baseline period, to serve as the basis for later climate change impact simulations. After parameterization, the output from the ACRU model was verified against temperature, snow water equivalent, glacier mass balance, potential evapotranspiration, and two sets of long-term daily streamflow records. The multi-variable verification analyses were implemented to instil confidence that the simulated streamflow time series is based on a realistic combination of bio-physical parameters and represents the watershed behaviour in terms of annual water yields, seasonality, shape and magnitude of the hydrographs, and streamflow variability. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Nemeth, M.W., Kienzle, S.W. and Byrne, J.M., 2012. Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 84–102.

Changing Roles in Canadian Water Management: A Case Study of Agriculture and Water in Canada's South Saskatchewan River Basin

This paper explores changing roles in Canadian water management, by focusing on a case study of agriculture and water in Western Canada. Challenges in water management include unequal adaptive capacity, gaps in water and climate data, locally relevant options, short- and long-term planning, among others. This empirical study offers insight for improved water management decision-making for all regions. There is a need for improving and integrating water management with climate scenarios, collecting more and better water/climate data, improving water governance and long-term planning, and developing strong communication channels between governance organizations and local communities. Positive trends towards effective and adaptive water management include the incorporation of watershed groups, basin planning, and the use of multidisciplinary approaches to guide decision-making.

Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin

The potential hydrologic impact of climatic change on three sub-basins of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) within Alberta, namely, Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins was investigated using the Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (Advances in Water Resources 29:808–826 2006). The European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40) climate data, Digital Elevation Model of the National Water Research Institute, land cover data and a priori soil parameters from the Ecoclimap global data set were used to drive MISBA to simulate the runoff of SSRB. Four SRES scenarios (A21, A1FI, B21 and B11) of four General Circulation Models (CCSRNIES, CGCM2, ECHAM4 and HadCM3) of IPCC were used to adjust climate data of the 1961–1990 base period (climate normal) to study the effect of climate change on SSRB over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099). The model results of MISBA forced under various climate change projections of the four GCMs with respect to the 1961–1990 normal show that SSRB is expected to experience a decrease in future streamflow and snow water equivalent, and an earlier onset of spring runoff despite of projected increasing trends in precipitation over the 21st century. Apparently the projected increase in evaporation loss due to a warmer climate over the 21st century will offset the projected precipitation increase, leading to an overall decreasing trend in the basin runoff of SSRB. Finally, a Gamma probability distribution function was fitted to the mean annual maximum flow and mean annual mean flow data simulated for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins by MISBA to statistically quantify the possible range of uncertainties associated with SRES climate scenarios projected by the four GCMs selected for this study.

Simulating the hydrological impacts of climate change in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Summary The ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system provided the framework, containing code to simulate all major hydrological processes, including actual evapotranspiration estimates, to simulate the impacts of climate change in the Cline River watershed, Alberta, Canada, under historical (1961–1990) and a range of future climate conditions (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). Whilst uncertainties in the estimation of many hydrological variables were inevitable, verification analyses carried out for the historical baseline period resulted in good to very good simulations of a range of hydrological processes, including daily air temperature, snow water equivalent and streamflow. Five climate change scenarios were selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions. In order to generate future climate time series, the 30-year baseline time series was perturbed according to predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation. Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation resulted in mean annual increases in potential and actual evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and streamflow in the Cline River watershed. Increases in both high and low flow magnitudes and frequencies, and large increases to winter and spring streamflow are predicted for all climate scenarios. Spring runoff and peak streamflow were simulated to occur up to 4 weeks earlier than in the 1961–1990 baseline period. Predicted changes were simulated to progressively increase into the future. A clear shift in the future hydrological regime is predicted, with significantly higher streamflow between October and June, and lower streamflow in July–September.

Modes and Forcing of Hydroclimatic Variability in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin Since 1063

In this paper the mean water year (October through September) flow of the North Saskatchewan River (NSR) at Edmonton, Alberta is reconstructed back to 1063 A.D. using a new network of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from limber pine and Douglas fir at seven sites in the headwater sub-basins of the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB). Over the full extent of the proxy hydrometric record (10632007), we examined 1) the duration and severity of low flow, 2) the dominant frequencies of periodic variability and 3) the correlation between these significant periodicities in proxy streamflow and climate indices, specifically sea surface temperature oscillations, which are known drivers of regional hydroclimatic variability. This new record of the paleohydrology of the NSRB is compared to previous tree-ring reconstructions of the annul flow of the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers. Extending the reference hydrology for the basin from decades to centuries changes perceptions of the reliability of the water supply and understanding of the hydroclimatic variability. The gauge record not does represent the full extent of interannual to multidecadal variability in the tree-ring data; there are periods of low flow in the pre-instrumental record that are longer and more severe than those recorded by the gauge.

Perceptions of Climate Risk in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) and Impacts on Climate Policy Choice

Perceptions of Climate Risk in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) and Impacts on Climate Policy Choice

Systems methodologies in Vitae Systems of Systems

Systems methodologies constitute an implementation science to address complex environmental problems from a Vitae Systems of Systems perspective. The aim of Implementation Science is to obtain sustainable, fair and responsible solutions that satisfy as much as possible the value systems of stakeholders while upholding the Vitae principles of survivability, viability and conviviality. To represent the environmental and other societal problems under investigation, the insightful concept of a system of systems is adopted. For example, the Vitae viewpoint on solutions to global warming problems at the regional, national or international level is captured in the interactions of societal systems, such as industrial and service systems, with atmospheric, oceanic and land systems. To tackle the strategic aspects of complex systems of systems problems, there is a rich variety of systems engineering decision tools that can handle multiple stakeholders with multiple objectives; these tools are explained and compared according to their inherent capabilities. To demonstrate how systems tools can implement a Vitae Systems of Systems philosophy, three different techniques are applied to complex large-scale environmental and water resources management problems. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is used to address the large-scale environmental problem that arose over a massive irrigation project proposed for the US state of North Dakota - the infamous Garrison Diversion Unit. Next, a large-scale optimization model, integrating concepts from hydrology, economics and cooperative game theory, is employed to identify fair and feasible allocations of water resources among users in the South Saskatchewan River Basin located in southern Alberta, Canada. Finally, Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis techniques are used to assess different strategies to satisfy future water demand from multiple stakeholders within the Regional Municipality of Waterloo situated in southern Ontario, Canada.

Canadian prairie rural communities: their vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities to drought

Droughts can have severe negative effects on the environment, society and economy. The drought of 2001–2002 caused severe strain on economic and social activities in western Canada, particularly on rural communities through changes in water resources. This paper examines physical and social vulnerabilities and associated adaptation measures undertaken and the adaptive capacity in communities in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada. Although all of these communities were exposed to the 2001–2002 drought, they had different levels of impacts, resulting in different types of drought adaptation measures, some due to experience with previous droughts and some in response to the 2001–2002 drought. Communities with unreliable water supply were the most vulnerable to these droughts. This vulnerability resulted in historic adaptations being implemented (e.g., Hanna, Alberta) and re-active adaptations (e.g., Cabri, Saskatchewan). It is important to examine the effectiveness of the current adaptive strategies to cope with more extensive and extended drought situations. First Nation communities, such as the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, have many social and environmental issues but the impacts from the drought were minor. The Reserve had implemented economic changes in the late 1980s to make it less vulnerable to drought but resulted in negative impacts to the Reserve’s social health. It is imperative to determine how vulnerable First Nation communities are and will to improve future adaptive capacity. This paper provides a snap shot view of how Canadian Prairie Communities have adapted to drought and how vulnerable they are to future drought situations.

Presence of natural and anthropogenic organic contaminants and potential fish health impacts along two river gradients in Alberta, Canada

In the current study, 28 organic contaminants were measured, many with estrogen-like activity, in water collected from 16 sites on two rivers in the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Alberta, Canada. The compounds detected included synthetic estrogens (birth control pill compounds and hormone therapy drugs) downstream of municipal wastewater effluents and natural hormones downstream of municipal wastewater effluents and in agricultural areas. Greater concentrations of cholesterol and derivatives, phytosterols, and fecal sterols were measured at the most downstream sites, which indicates cumulative inputs of such compounds in these rivers. A native minnow (longnose dace, Rhinichthys cataractae) was sampled to assess pathophysiological responses to exposure to compounds with estrogen-like activity. Hepatic vitellogenin protein was detected in at least one adult male longnose dace from 14 of 15 sites sampled for fish. Vitellogenin was negatively correlated with hepatosomatic (r = -0.47, p < 0.001) and gonadosomatic (r = -0.44, p < 0.003) indices, which suggests potential health impacts in male longnose dace in the South Saskatchewan River Basin. The current study demonstrates that organic contaminants, many with estrogen-like activity, are distributed over hundreds of kilometers throughout the South Saskatchewan River Basin and not just downstream of major point-sources. Therefore, many activities within these basins impact water quality in the South Saskatchewan River Basin and affect endemic longnose dace populations.

Optimal Water Allocation under Short-Run Water Scarcity in the South Saskatchewan River Basin

This paper examines the effect on economic welfare of alternative surface water allocations in the Alberta portion of the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada. Growing demands for urban and instream water uses add to significant irrigation withdrawals, all contributing to relative water scarcity. A computational model optimizes the annual value derived from spatially diverse water withdrawals, fully respecting their hydrologic and economic linkages. The model simulates current allocation practices and defines optimal allocations under alternative demand and supply scenarios. The use of the publicly developed Aquarius modeling software illustrates its comparative strengths relative to other models that optimize explicitly with respect to economic values. The model’s numerical estimates support the conclusion that there are sufficient surface water resources for users to adapt to a range of alterations in water supply or water demand, but that substantial short-term reallocations of water among users mi...

Incorporation of seasonal climate forecasts in the ensemble streamflow prediction system

Summary A technique for incorporating 0–3 months lead temperature and precipitation forecasts from two Canadian numerical weather prediction (NWP) models into the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system is presented. The technique involves downscaling monthly NWP forecast outputs to station locations using the model output statistics (MOS) approach and then temporally disaggregating the monthly forecasts into daily input weather data suitable for driving a hydrologic model. The daily weather sequence for a desired month is generated by a nearest neighbor re-sampling of one of the years in the historical record, and then modifying the daily weather data for the same month of the re-sampled year so as to reproduce the MOS-based monthly forecast value. Streamflow forecasts from the MOS-based scheme are compared to pre-ESP and post-ESP re-sampling schemes without seasonal climate forecast guidance. In the pre-ESP scheme, daily weather inputs for the hydrologic model were conditionally re-sampled from historical records. In the post-ESP scheme, streamflow traces produced by the climatic ESP system were conditionally re-sampled. The three schemes were applied to the Bow and Castle rivers, both located in the headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River basin in the province of Alberta, Canada. Correlations between the MOS-based median forecast and observed flow for the Castle River were consistently higher than those based on the pre-ESP and post-ESP schemes. Other skill measures showed mixed results, with the MOS-based forecasts being more skillful in some cases and less skillful in others. All three schemes exhibited better skill for above-normal flow categories than for below-normal categories. It is also shown that considerable improvement in the ESP forecast skill could be achieved through more accurate simulation of streamflow, particularly for forecast issue dates late in the water year.

Closing the South Saskatchewan River Basin to New Water Licences: Effects on Municipal Water Supplies

The Alberta provincial government approved the Water Management Plan for the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in August 2006. As a result of this plan, the Province stopped accepting applications for new allocations of water in the Oldman, Bow, and South Saskatchewan sub-basins in southern Alberta. This licence closure has had a significant effect on water supply strategies available to municipal water users, as many communities currently hold water licences that are not adequate for their projected growth. To meet additional water demands, these communities must reduce their water use, arrange water licence transfers, or purchase water from another licence holder. This paper describes how closing the SSRB to new water allocations has affected water supply planning for municipalities in the Calgary region in southern Alberta. It also discusses water supply and licence constraints and potential mitigation strategies, and examines the effects of the basin closure on water supply and land-use planning, and utility governance.

The Role of Pacific Climate on Low-Frequency Hydroclimatic Variability and Predictability in Southern Alberta, Canada

Abstract Wavelet and rank correlation analysis were used to identify the links between primary Pacific climate variability modes and low-frequency hydroclimatic variability in the South Saskatchewan River basin (SSRB) of southern Alberta. The April–September average streamflow shows strong interdecadal oscillations with dominant scales of 19–22, 41–42, and 62 yr whereas statistically significant wavelet power in the interannual scale was organized on a background scale of approximately 20–25 yr. At interannual scales, strong coherency is observed between streamflow and the Niño-3 index prior to the 1940s, and in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s. However, a change in the phase difference from near 0° in the 1950s to near 180° in the 1980s indicates that the relationship between streamflow and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not consistent. Streamflow–Pacific–North America pattern (PNA) and streamflow–Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) relationships at interannual scales also exhibit similar inconsistencies in phase difference. At interdecadal scales, PDO and streamflow exhibited consistently strong coherence with a stable phase difference of 180° for scales &amp;gt;20 yr. From the period of 1913–2001, the median partial correlation between streamflow and PDO|Niño-3 (read as PDO given Niño-3) was −0.36, whereas it was zero between streamflow and Niño-3|PDO, suggesting that PDO is the primary mode of importance in streamflow variability and predictability in the SSRB. Precipitation variability was also dominated by interdecadal oscillations; however, there is less spatial coherence for dominant scales. Correlations between the basin’s winter precipitation and climate indices are also weaker than with streamflow.

New reconstructions of streamflow variability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin from a network of tree ring chronologies, Alberta, Canada

In western Canada growing demand for water resources has increased vulnerability to hydrological drought. The near full allocation of water supplies in the Oldman and Bow River subbasins of the South Saskatchewan River Basin has resulted in a moratorium on new surface water licenses. In this region, short instrumental records limit the detection of long‐term hydrological variability. To extend the historical record, we collected 14 new moisture‐sensitive tree ring chronologies and reconstructed the average October through September flow of the Oldman (1618–2004) and South Saskatchewan (SSR) (1400–2004) rivers. Our SSR proxy record updates a previously published reconstruction. While the 20th century is representative of drought frequency over the long term, droughts are of greater severity and duration in the preinstrumental proxy record. A spectral analysis of the reconstructed flows revealed quasiperiodic cycles at interannual to multidecadal scales.

Are dams hotspots for Didymosphenia geminata blooms?

Summary1. The diatom Didymosphenia geminata has emerged in recent years as a globally invasive species. Although considered native to North America, reports of nuisance blooms have increased over the last decade.2. Previously, we determined that D. geminata was ubiquitous in two major headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB), Alberta, Canada, but found it only bloomed at certain sites, including those immediately downstream from dam outfalls. To evaluate the role of dams in the abundance and blooming of D. geminata, we compared sites just below dams to unregulated upstream reference sites in six dammed rivers of the SSRB.3. There was a high degree of seasonal variability in D. geminata abundance among sites, but statistical analyses showed a significant propensity for the diatom to have higher cell densities and an increased frequency of blooms at dam sites.4. Important predictor variables of D. geminata abundance included dam presence, water clarity and total phosphorus concentration. When data from dam sites were analysed, a multiple regression model using mean discharge and pH as independent predictors explained 73% of the variation in D. geminata cell density.5. Analysis of 3 years of data from one study river (Red Deer River) revealed consistently higher D. geminata cell densities at the dam site compared to the upstream reference. This analysis also showed that average cell density fluctuated by orders of magnitude from year‐to‐year.6. Due to the ecological and aesthetic concerns regarding the global spread and blooming of D. geminata, we recommend that dams be viewed as key candidates for mitigating blooms in flow regulated systems.