Effects of Climate Change on the Surface-Water Management of the South Saskatchewan River Basin

Abstract

AbstractThe Modified Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (MISBA) model, the Water Resources Management Model (WRMM) of Alberta Environment, and the Irrigation District Model (IDM) of Alberta Agriculture Food and Rural Development were used to assess the future outlook of water resource management of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta under the potential impacts of climate change. Using the SSRB hydrometeorological base data from 1928–1995, potential effects of climate change on the SSRB for 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 were simulated by MISBA, IDM, and WRMM with the climate scenarios projected by four general circulation models forced by emissions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under these climate projections, MISBA simulated a significant decrease in the mean annual average and mean annual maximum streamflows over selected nodes within the SSRB; the irrigation water demand projected by IDM is expected to increase progressively over the 21st century; ...