Abstract
Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to alter the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. A realistic assessment of future climate change and inter-annual variability is required to meet a growing demand for water supplies in all major use sectors. This study focuses on changes in climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) above Edmonton, AB, Canada, using the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale communautaire—Surface Hydrology) model. The bias-corrected ensemble of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) data is used to drive MESH for two 60-year time periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season, there is significant trend in spring (0.62) and fall (0.41) and insignificant in summer (0.008). Winter extreme minimum temperature and summer extreme maximum temperature are increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future and 5–6 °C in the far future. Annual runoff increases by 19% compared to base period. The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the NSRB.
Highlights
The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB)
Precipitation is increasing in all seasons except summer; when there are both drier and wetter ensemble projections
Uncertainty in hydrological projections was much more intimately linked with uncertainty in the ensemble projections of precipitation compared to temperature, indicating, we must reduce uncertainty in precipitation data for improved modeling creditability
Summary
A shift in the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies, and in the frequency and severity of flooding and drought, are among the most problematic regional impacts of global climate change [1,2,3]. These impacts are especially challenging in water-limited landscapes and where watershed hydrology is dominated by the melt of a cold season snowpack. Both of these geographic characteristics apply to the mid- and high-latitude snow-dominated river basins of western Canada. The flow of rivers draining the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains has declined in recent decades [6,7,8,9,10,11,12]
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