Projected near-term changes in temperature extremes over China in the mid-twenty-first century and underlying physical processes

Abstract

This study investigates the near-term future changes of temperature extremes in summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) seasons over mainland China in the mid-twenty-first century (FP; 2045–2055) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario relative to the present day (PD; 1994–2011) by using an atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer coupled model MetUM-GOML1. The projected changes in hot extremes exhibit a rise in hottest day temperature (TXx) and warmest night temperature (TNx) and an increase in frequencies of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). The projected changes in cold extremes show a rise in coldest day temperature (TXn) and coldest night temperature (TNn) and a decrease in frequencies of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD). The projected changes in temperature extremes in both seasons are primarily determined by changes in seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperature while changes in temperature variability from daily to sub-seasonal time scales play a minor role. The future changes in temperature extremes over China, being consistent with the rise in seasonal temperature, are partly due to the increase in surface downward clear sky longwave radiation through the increased greenhouse gas concentrations and enhanced water vapor in the atmosphere, and partly due to the increase in net surface shortwave radiation as a result of the decreased aerosol emissions over Asia via aerosol-radiation interactions. Moreover, the seasonal mean surface warming can further be amplified with positive feedbacks by reducing the cloud cover, leading to positive changes in shortwave radiative effect through aerosol-cloud interactions and surface-atmosphere feedbacks during summer, and by positive changes in surface clear sky shortwave radiation through snow-albedo feedbacks over northern China and southwestern China during winter.