Sanctions Regime Research Articles

Особенности использования кластерного подхода при организации государственно-частного партнерства в сфере туризма

The study of the features of using the cluster approach in organizing public-private partnerships in the field of tourism is highly relevant in the context of the continued sanctions regime against Russia by the United States and the European Union. This is due, on the one hand, to the multiple growth of domestic tourism in many regions of Russia, and on the other, to high geopolitical risks and limited financial resources of Russian business. The article describes the dynamics of the development of public-private partnerships and its organizational features in the Russian Federation. In particular, the absolute priority of the share of concession agreements in the overall structure of public-private partnership projects in 2022 is shown; the structural differences between the initiatives of public-private partnership projects in Europe and the Russian Federation in 2020-2022 are identified, as well as the national characteristics of public-private partnerships in relation to the tourism complex, the organization of which is still a poorly developed method of improving national tourism. A significant difference between a domestic organization and a foreign one is that in Russia tourism is considered as a separate sector, while in Europe public-private partnership projects indirectly influence the improvement of tourism in the regions through the development of transport and social infrastructures. Whereas in Russia, in addition to projects of indirect importance, much attention is paid to potentially useful objects for increasing direct endogenous tourism indicators, such as the number of tourist arrivals, the number of foreign arrivals, increasing the share of tourism in GDP, passenger traffic, etc. It is concluded that a characteristic feature of the development of the tourism complex in the public-private partnership (PPP) format can be considered the use of the cluster approach as the main one. This allowed the authors to reveal a set of advantages of PPP in tourism; formulate the characteristics of a tourism cluster formed through the association of representatives of government agencies and private business; propose a scheme for the effectiveness of PPP design in tourism using a cluster approach.

Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Abstract This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (1) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (2) compare prospective coalition partners; (3) investigate ‘optimal’ coalitions that maximize payoff from sanctions; (4) provide bounds for sanctions potential, that is, the maximum welfare change attainable when sanctions are scaled vertically up to an embargo, and horizontally up to a global regime. Relative to unilateral action, we find that coalitions magnify welfare losses imposed while their impact on domestic welfare loss incurred depends on the design and sectoral dimension of sanctions. Hypothetical cooperation of large developing economies such as China additionally raises the deterrent force of coalitions. Additionally, we quantify transfers that equalize welfare losses across coalition members to further demonstrate asymmetries in the relative economic burden of sanctions. In all scenarios, we implement a novel Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands for simulation outcomes.

Speed at the expense of safety? Economic crime security concerns in the implementation of the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments

This paper argues that, in its current form, the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments raises substantial risks for fraud and financial crime, and is highly likely to reduce the effectiveness of the financial sanctions regime. Furthermore, it holds that there is a fundamental disconnect between those G20 policy makers responsible for payment system reform and those authorities responsible for fraud prevention and tackling financial crime. This disconnect is leading to imbalanced policy-making that risks embedding fraud and financial crime vulnerabilities within cross-border payment systems. This paper argues that G20 policy makers need to ensure that payments reform does not create new economic crime vulnerabilities or undermine existing defences against fraud and financial crime. This should involve: (1) greater coordination and a sense of shared responsibility between payments and economic crime-related policy makers, internationally and at the domestic level; (2) the establishment of a policy principle of ‘economic crime security by design’ in payments reform policy; and (3) the deployment of a risk-based approach in faster cross-border payments that would enable customers to opt into safer corridors for payments, allowing for appropriate analysis, screening and the recall of payments where appropriate from a risk perspective.

Racism and the uneven geography of welfare sanctioning in England

AbstractThis paper presents the first spatial analysis of racial disparities in the UK welfare sanction regime. As part of their austerity programme, the UK government tightened the conditionality of welfare programmes and intensified the use of financial penalties against welfare claimants who failed to demonstrate compliance with these conditions. Analysing Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) data from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) and the Office for National Statistics between 2012 and 2019 we draw attention to the spatially uneven and highly racialised geography of welfare sanctions in England. Claimants from racially minoritised backgrounds are consistently more likely to be referred for a sanction by Jobcentre caseworkers and receive an adverse decision at the hands of institutional decision‐makers. Within this, however, there are important scalar and spatial differences that warrant critical attention. In rural England, the risk of being sanctioned is substantially higher for all groups, but especially for Mixed heritage and Black/Black British claimants who in some areas are over twice as likely to be sanctioned as their White counterparts. Since ethnicity data have not been published for Universal Credit sanction decisions, the presented evidence offers critical insight into the potential persistence of racial injustice in applying welfare sanctions. We identify ‘hotspots’ of racism in the sanction regime, most of which are in rural areas, before offering three interpretative frameworks through which spatial and racial disparities might be explained. Any suggestion that such disparities simply derive from the behaviour of DWP staff fails to adequately account for deeply entrenched histories of welfare racism, rural racism and the role of welfare sanctioning in dynamics of racial capitalism: that is, disciplining and impoverishing racialised populations in ways that generate conditions for capital accumulation. By contributing new empirical and theoretical insights to the often neglected study of rural austerity and welfare, the paper calls for scholarship to investigate the variegations of welfare, austerity and racial capitalism in diverse rural contexts.

Medical Sanctions Against Russia: Arresting Aggression or Abrogating Healthcare Rights?

Since 2022, the EU, US, and other nations have imposed medical sanctions on Russia to block the export of pharmaceuticals and medical devices and curtail clinical trials to degrade Russia’s military capabilities. While international law proscribes sanctions that cause a humanitarian crisis, an outcome averted in Russia, the military effects of medical sanctions have been lean. Strengthening medical sanctions risks violating noncombatant and combatant rights to healthcare. Each group’s claim is different. Noncombatants and severely injured soldiers who cannot return to duty enjoy the right to adequate health care that sanctions cannot undermine. Combatants falling captive enjoy the same medical care that adversaries provide their own troops. Combatants yet to renounce hostilities, however, have no claim to medical attention and remain subject to sanctions. Nevertheless, medical sanctions prove unworkable in this complex environment of conflicting rights and command no place in a sustainable sanction regime.

The gendered politics of Iran-U.S. relations: sanctions, the JCPOA and women’s security

I examine the decades of fraught Iran–U.S. relations through a conceptual feminist IR lens, and I situate the relationship within the broader MENA region beset with rivalries, conflicts and crises. The spotlight is on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the unilateral U.S. withdrawal in 2018, the long sanctions regime imposed on Iran, and the gendered effects on women’s welfare and security. I argue that Iran–U.S. mutual hostility has enhanced tensions in the Middle East, reinforced militarised masculinities and bolstered the patriarchal political forces in Iran – which became the target of the 2022 female-led protests. Building on feminist arguments about the connection between domestic and international affairs, the article elucidates the relationship of sanctions to ‘the continuum of violence’.

Legal implications of automated suspicious transaction monitoring: enhancing integrity of AI

The fast-paced advances of technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), continue to create new opportunities for banks and other financial institutions. This study reveals the barriers to trust in AI by prudential banking supervisors (compliance with regulations). We conducted a qualitative study on the drivers for adoption of explainability technologies that increase transparency and understanding of complex algorithms (some of the underpinning legal principles in the proposed EU AI Act). By using human-centred and ethics-by-design methods coupled with interviews of the key stakeholders from Eastern European private and public banks and IT AI/ML developers, this research has identified the key challenges concerning the employment of AI algorithms. The results indicate a conflicting view of AI barriers whilst revealing the importance of AI/ML systems in banks, the growing willingness of banks to use such systems more widely, and the problematic aspects of implementing AI/ML systems related to their cost and economic efficiency. Keeping up with the complex regulation requirements comes at a significant cost to banks and financial firms. The focus of the empirical study, stakeholders in Ukraine, Estonia and Poland, was chosen because of the fact that there has been a sharp increase in the adoption of AI/ML models in this jurisdiction in the context of its war with Russia and the ensuing sanctions regime. While the “leapfrogging” AI/ML paths in each bank surveyed had its own drivers and challenges, these insights provide lessons for banks in other European jurisdictions. The analysis of four criminal cases brought against top banks and conclusions of the study indicate that the increase in predicate crimes for money laundering, constantly evolving sanctions regime along with the enhanced scrutiny and enforcement action against banks are hindering technology innovation and legal implications of using AI driven tools for compliance.

Problems and prospects of management of foreign economic activity of Russian companies under conditions of sanctions

The article reveals the main problems of managing the foreign economic activity of Russian companies in the context of the sanctions. The presented analysis of the dynamics of export and import development over the period of 2018–2023 made it possible to identify the main prospects for the development of foreign economic activity in the conditions of sanctions. A conclusion was obtained on the need to implement a set of proposed measures to stabilize the economic situation and search for new partners in the conditions of the sanctions regime.

Население как участник фондового и срочного рынков: ожидания, риски, перспективы

The relevance of the article is due to the fact that the instruments of the stock and futures markets are currently considered by the population as an attractive alternative to traditional investments in bank deposits. This category of inves-tors, which ten years ago did not have any noticeable weight on stock and fu-tures markets, is gradually turning into active participants in the securities market, capable not only of ensuring the efficiency of the Russian economy, but also of overcoming market risks. The subject of the study is the activity of retail investors in the domestic finan-cial market during the period of tightening anti—Russian sanctions. The pur-pose of the work is to consider the specifics of citizens' investment behavior, identify the main trends of the current period and factors contributing to the further development of the investor protection system and increase citizens' confidence in financial markets. The article identifies the peculiarities of the de-velopment of the retail segment of the domestic market in the period 2022–2023, and on this basis it is concluded that the sanctions regime has caused significant damage to the Russian financial market, however, the degree of im-pact of the negative processes constraining its development turned out to be less significant than predicted by most researchers. The continuation of the regulator's work in terms of developing additional measures to protect inves-tors' rights and improve financial culture, coupled with the implementation of initiatives by trade organizers and the professional community, will make it possible to counteract the spread of unfair trading and marketing practices, improve the investment climate in the country, and strengthen the confidence of private investors in financial market instruments and institutions.

Подход ЕС к смягчению воздействия санкций на гуманитарную помощь: сирийский кейс

In times of a significant expansion sanctions practice, the problem of their humanitarian damage in general and their destructive impact on the provision of humanitarian assistance to population of target countries in particular becomes especially acute. As an active initiator of restrictive measures and a leading donor of humanitarian aid, the European Union pays significant attention to the negative impact of restrictive measures on fundamental human rights and on humanitarian action in sanctioned environments. This study identifies the essence, logic and goals of the EU’s efforts to mitigate the negative impact of restrictive measures on the provision of humanitarian assistance to those in need using the example of Brussels’ policy towards Syria before and after the devastating 2023 earthquake. The paper examines the architecture of the EU sanctions policy and humanitarian assistance, shows the role and significance of humanitarian exceptions from sanctions regimes in EU policy and rhetoric. The author focuses on the Syrian case. Its study allows to identify the dilemmas of the EU sanctions policy towards Syria, the motives and tools for mitigating the impact of sanctions on the humanitarian situation in a country located in close proximity to the European southern borders. Particular emphasis is placed on studying the approach of the European Union, as the largest donor of aid, to minimizing the negative impact of restrictions on the provision of humanitarian assistance to Syria. A study of the European Union’s efforts in Syria shows the role of humanitarian exceptions from sanctions to mitigate the impact of restrictive measures on the provision of assistance, as well as their importance for achieving the political goals of the European Union and its international positioning.

Who is really affected by European Union terrorist sanctions? A Critical Study on ‘Proximity’ in EU Case Law

The European Union (EU) adopts restrictive measures – or sanctions – as part of its counterterrorism strategy. These measures restrict the fundamental rights of the natural or legal persons they target and can be challenged in front of the General Court or the European Court of Justice (the CJEU). Drawing from both legal scholarship and security studies, this article refines an analytical framework that enables an original analysis of the case law of the CJEU: we focus on ‘proximity’, an element so far neglected in the analysis of counter-terrorism sanctions. Proximity is the variable measuring the distance between the addressee of a measure from the actual commission of a terrorist act. Such a variable provides the analytical framework through which to test the hypotheses and findings proposed in the last decade by previous studies. Such findings are mostly confirmed by our interdisciplinary analysis, but nuanced. While it is true that sanctions lead to a process of othering and stigmatization, the Court has introduced some meaningful procedural safeguards that contribute to protecting the fundamental rights of individuals, especially in the case of family members of suspected terrorists. Not dissimilarly from what was noted about judicial protection in other sanctions regimes, however, tensions remain in how to ensure effective substantive, as opposed to merely procedural, protection to sanctions addressees. Terrorism, EU restrictive measures, Court of Justice of the European Union, fundamental rights, judicial protection

Criminalising the Violation of EU Restrictive Measures: Towards (Dis)Proportionate Punishments vis-à-vis Natural Persons?

This paper aims at providing a critical perspective on the European Union’s adoption of criminal law as a key mechanism for enforcing sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It scrutinizes the evolution and expansion of the EU’s sanctions regime, revealing a strategic shift towards a criminal law-based enforcement approach. With an emphasis on the EU’s legal framework, this contribution highlights the diverse national responses to breaches of these sanctions, ranging from administrative to criminal penalties. The lack of uniformity in these responses has sparked a significant EU initiative to criminalise sanction breaches, leading to a proposal for harmonizing criminal definitions and penalties across Member States. This initiative, while aiming to streamline enforcement and eliminate impunity, raises questions about the proportionality and appropriateness of using criminal law in this context. This paper delves into these concerns using the principle of proportionality of penalties enshrined in Article 49(3) of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union as a benchmark. It critically analyses the proposed criminal penalties, questioning their alignment with the severity of the offences and the rationale behind categorising offence as either minor or serious. Besides, the examination extends to the impact of monetary thresholds on determining the gravity of offences, the cumulative effect of linked offences, and the potential risks of overcriminalisation. Finally, it offers insights into the latest developments in the legislative process, discussing the European Parliament and Council’s stance on the proposal. The paper concludes by advocating for further refinements to ensure that the criminalisation of violation or circumvention of restrictive measures remains proportional and effective, ultimately upholding the EU’s commitment to justice and accountability in the face of international crises.

АНАЛИЗ САНКЦИЙ И ОЦЕНКА МЕТОДОВ БОРЬБЫ С НИМИ

The article examines the sanctions imposed against Russia, Iran, Cuba and Syria. In the process of research, countries with similar restrictions are identified, the main sanction focuses and the consequences of the applied sanctions regimes are revealed. Sanctions have a significant impact on the Russian economy. Identifying and understanding measures to combat their influence that are effectively applied in other countries can help assess the effectiveness of Russia’s antisanctions policy.

Critical analysis of the effectiveness of EU financial sanctions against the Russian Federation

The article focuses on the issue of international sanctions of a financial nature in the context of, in particular, the challenges to their effectiveness generated by the cryptocurrency market. An essential point of reference for this analysis is the current case of sanctions imposed by the Council of the European Union (supported by the application of complementary sanctions by part of the international community) on the Russian Federation in relation to that country’s military aggression against Ukraine. The aim of this article is to show different perspectives on the assessment of the effectiveness of sanctions and, in particular, to identify the sources why, in a key number of cases, while weakening the economic potential of the sanctioned state, they nevertheless fail to achieve the original objective of their imposition, i.e. the deterrence of military action. In this subject, the axis of interest is the current and prospective impact of blockchain-based financial solutions on the creation of an important loophole in the sanctions regime to eliminate or marginalise the effects of international financial sanctions. The issue is also assessed through the prism of the crypto-asset market regulation entering into force in the European Union in the near future and the implementation of the so-called travel rule for cryptocurrency transactions.

Новые тенденции в развитии мировой экономики и их влияние на Россию

Fragmentation processes are developing in the world economy since the 2010s. They are characterized by the active use of protectionist measures in foreign trade. Manifestations of fragmentation include a slowdown in global trade dynamics, a reduction in international capital flows relative to global GDP, and increased volatility in global commodity and financial markets. However, we can not find statistical confirmation for the full-scale development of the process of fragmentation in the world economy. It should also be noted that there are also the global debt problem, currently manifested in increasing debt servicing costs, and the problem of currency competition from both private digital currencies and competition for the US dollar from the Chinese yuan as a currency of an alternative center of the global economy. The Russian economy has experienced the full-fledged impact from the fragmentation trend through the unprecedented sanctions regime imposed on it in 2022, and has also faced the impact of increased global inflationary pressures. At the same time, the consequences of sanctions against Russia have also affected the dynamics of global commodities markets due to the “big country trap” effect. The economic policy pursued in Russia contributed to overcoming the negative short-term consequences of the sanctions shock. Currently, economic policy is faced with the task of solving medium- and long-term problems, first of all, contributing the structural changes in the Russian economy.

Analiza krytyczna efektywności unijnych sankcji finansowych zastosowanych wobec Federacji Rosyjskiej

The article focuses on the issue of international sanctions of a financial nature in the context of, in particular, the challenges to their effectiveness generated by the cryptocurrency market. An essential point of reference for this analysis is the current case of sanctions imposed by the Council of the European Union (supported by the application of complementary sanctions by part of the international community) on the Russian Federation in relation to that country’s military aggression against Ukraine. The aim of this article is to show different perspectives on the assessment of the effectiveness of sanctions and, in particular, to identify the sources why, in a key number of cases, while weakening the economic potential of the sanctioned state, they nevertheless fail to achieve the original objective of their imposition, i.e. the deterrence of military action. In this subject, the axis of interest is the current and prospective impact of blockchain-based financial solutions on the creation of an important loophole in the sanctions regime to eliminate or marginalise the effects of international financial sanctions. The issue is also assessed through the prism of the crypto-asset market regulation entering into force in the European Union in the near future and the implementation of the so-called travel rule for cryptocurrency transactions.

Economic Coercion as a Geopolitical Strategy: From Sanction Regimes to FATF

Economic Coercion as a Geopolitical Strategy: From Sanction Regimes to FATF

Azerbaijan – Armenia – Georgia: Challenges and Prospects of Interstate Cooperation

In the conditions of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, the question of the future world order is more than urgent. The introduction of the sanctions regime against Russia led to the intensification of the latter’s efforts in the direction of creating its own ecosystem of survival, in which the states of the South Caucasus, in particular, the former Soviet republics such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, are considered indispensable components. In their research, the authors analyze the features of the socio-political development of the named states of the South Caucasus in its relationship with the events of the Russian-Ukrainian war and changes. The authors draw attention to the importance of the South Caucasus for ensuring the ability of the Russian Federation to continue the war against Ukraine at the current stage. In its desire to regain its status as a world leader, the Russian Federation is trying with all its might to preserve the existing status quo in the region, on the one hand, while simultaneously improving its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, on the other. The latter was quite clearly revealed during the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the events of September 19, 2023 in Nagorno-Karabakh. The return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan due to the termination of the existence of the NKR from January 1, 2024 opens up new prospects not only for regional development, but also for the resolution of other “frozen” conflicts created by Moscow. Eliminating the factor of military confrontation from the regional order is an important element of geopolitical stability and security in the region. And Georgia in this case plays an important role, on the one hand, as a potential mediator, and on the other, as a state that has a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and good-neighborly relations with Armenia.

Serbia between East and West: ontological security, vicarious identity and the problem of sanctions against Russia

ABSTRACT Why did Serbia not impose sanctions against Russia following its aggression on Ukraine in February 2022? As a state seeking membership of the European Union (EU), Serbia’s reluctance to join the sanction regime is puzzling. This paper draws from the ontological security literature to show how Serbia, as a political community, is divided between East and West, that is, between a vicarious attachment to Moscow and a relationship with Brussels driven primarily by the prospect of joining the benefits of membership of the EU. The problem of sanctions brought to the fore the conflicted identity of Serbia, showing how Belgrade’s hedging in foreign policy reflects not only an attempt to extract concessions and advantages from both partners – the EU and Russia – but more fundamentally its efforts to come to terms with its liminal, ontologically insecure position within the international system.

Experimental legal regime in the field of digital innovations: on the issue of ensuring legal certainty

The rapid development of digital technologies that transform objective reality by their implementation, combined with the need for the Russian state to rely mainly on internal resources (which is due to the introduction and expansion of the sanctions regime of unfriendly countries against Russia), "calls" for the search for effective mechanisms and tools capable of: 1) to ensure technological sovereignty, 2) to mobilize the digital economy, 3) to preserve the well-being of our society. One of these mechanisms may be an experimental legal regime in the field of digital innovation (hereinafter referred to as EPR), the study of the essence of which is the subject of this work. In the course of the research, the author pays special attention to: 1) consideration of the category "legal experiment"; 2) disclosure of the essence of the EPR through the study of the category "legal regime of entrepreneurial activity", including within the territories with a special regime of entrepreneurial activity; 3) consideration of the issue of ensuring the principle of legal certainty in the context of the EPR. The following methods of scientific research were used in the study: analysis, synthesis, generalization, analogy, etc.; a systematic approach, special legal and comparative legal methods were used. The main conclusions of the conducted research are: - firstly, the system of entrepreneurial legal regimes can be represented by the following triad: general, special, extraordinary; in relation to territories with a special regime of entrepreneurial activity, when it comes to a special preferential regime; - secondly, the dual legal nature of the EPR makes it possible to consider it both as one of the types of territory with a special regime of entrepreneurial activity, and as a legal experiment; - thirdly, the intermediate place of the EPR between the advanced legal regulation is determined and the postponement of legal regulation, which allows us to talk about the dynamism of legal certainty; fourth, EPR can be considered as an effective means of overcoming the effect of lagging legislation only when legality is not replaced by expediency.