Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Research Articles

Study on the Applicability of LSTM for Predicting Stock Price when Facing Extreme Events

The analysis of stock price fluctuations holds considerable significance in the field of economics, particularly given the present environment characterized by unpredictability and rapid changes. Previously, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model has been employed effectively in addressing time series problems, including stock market forecasting. However, in the current dynamic landscape, the ability of LSTM to adapt to volatile conditions and provide accurate predictions is an area that merits further investigation. This study gathers stock data from prominent and representative companies, namely Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, spanning from January 2012 to March 2023. Specifically, two significant events are examined: the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the US stock market on February 26, 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict occurring on February 26, 2022. By dividing the stock data surrounding these events into training and test sets, this research aims to evaluate the differential performance of LSTM in scenarios where it possesses no prior knowledge of these events versus situations where it has already assimilated the influence exerted by them.

TVP-VAR Frequency Connectedness Between the Foreign Exchange Rates of Non-Euro Area Member Countries

Abstract Research background The main purpose of monetary integration between EU countries is to eliminate excessive fluctuations in exchange rates. High volatility in exchange rates can cause various negative economic and financial effects, especially during periods of economic shocks. In addition, estimating the volatility between currencies and their interactions is of great importance for effective portfolio management. Purpose The objective of this research is to scrutinize the transmission of volatility between the currencies of those European Union nations that do not participate in the EURO area, focusing on the exchange rate parity of the US Dollar with seven non-EURO zone currencies. Research methodology Daily volatility in exchange rates was calculated using the Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GK-YZ) method. To investigate the connectedness between these volatilities, we used the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness approach. Results The Average Total Connectedness Index exhibits a significant degree of connectedness of approximately 71.84%. The Net Total Directional Connectedness Index indicates that the CZK, DKK and RON exchange rates are net beneficiaries in aggregate and in a longer term perspective, whereas the DKK, HUF and PLN exchange rates are net beneficiaries in a shorter term horizon. In the context of major global events such as the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 and the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, it could be observed that the dynamic Total Connectedness Index exhibited a substantial increase, both overall and from a long-term perspective, corroborating theoretical expectations. According to the Net Pairwise Directional Connectedness index, the highest bilateral connectedness overall and in the short run was between DKK and RON, while in the long run between BGN and DKK. Novelty Examining the connectedness of currencies is of great importance for investors doing business with foreign currency, international cooperation and policies, risk management and portfolio management. Determining the connectedness in different frequency (short and long-term) ranges provides important information for hedging risk. In addition, the bilateral connectedness between currencies is a guide for effective portfolio diversification.

Ukrainian Muslims in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict

Abstract This article examines the processes of transformation in the Ukrainian Muslim community since the outset of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and also delves into shifts in the state’s policy towards Muslims during this time. Since the conflict began in 2014, the state’s stance towards Muslims has steadily improved. The main reason for this is the unequivocal pro-Ukrainian position taken by nearly all Muslim communities in Ukraine amidst the Russian invasion. The paper assesses the impact of Russian military aggression and the occupation of part of Ukraine’s territory on the country’s Muslim communities. It also highlights the ambiguous role of a number of Islamist movements taking an active part in the armed resistance to the invasion

Study on the Cognitive Mechanisms of Stigmatized Discourse Production in Western Media Based on Cognitive Attention

Stigma is the negative interpreation of a certain individual/group by a stigmatizer for a specific purpose under the influence of public opinion. In order to break the state of being stigmatized, the key is to understand the generation processes of stigmatized discourses. This study puts forward a theoretical framework for analyzing the cognitive mechanisms and strategies of stigmatized discourse generation by combining cognitive attention with proximization theory. In order to validate this framework, this study then takes the western reports on Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example to analyze its production strategies both in terms of cognition and language. It turns out that the framework has strong explanatory power in investigating the generation processes, different attention strategies and the language expressions of the stigma. It is helpful to understand the cognitive operation behind stigmatization and select the corresponding anti-stigma discourse to de-construct these negative conceptualizations.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on International Trade and Finance

Abstract: Beyond its geopolitical roots, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant effect on international trade and finance in both countries. This study explores the complex effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on national economies. This study examines the complex interactions between the factors influencing the internal trade and finance sectors using a thorough research technique that incorporates qualitative and quantitative assessments. This study investigates interruptions in supply networks, changes in trade patterns, and the difficulties experienced by firms in navigating geopolitical uncertainty in order to determine the impact on domestic commerce. The examination also explores the world of finance, investment environments, and currency stability. This research reveals complex insights into the dynamic economic landscape driven by geopolitical tensions through meticulous data collecting and strong analytical techniques. The results of this study show how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on domestic trade and finance. Businesses must adapt to shifting markets and geopolitical concerns while facing unprecedented obstacles. Financial institutions struggle with volatility, which calls for creative approaches to guarantee stability. Additionally, this research reveals policy ramifications, providing useful information for governments and companies looking to be resilient in the face of geopolitical unrest. In the end, this research offers useful information that is crucial for financial institutions, corporations, and governments in addition to advancing scholarly discourse. Stakeholders may successfully manage obstacles by comprehending the complex interactions between geopolitical conflicts and national economies. This will promote economic stability and sustainable growth in the face of difficulty.

Geopolitical Turmoil and G7 Renewable Electricity Production: Impacts of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

This paper scrutinizes the transformation in the electricity production structures of G7 nations in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The inquiry centers on discerning shifts in the trajectory of energy production, particularly toward more sustainable and secure sources. With the imposition of economic sanctions against the Russian economy, an anticipatory transition from combustible fuels to renewable energy sources within G7 countries is envisaged. An empirical investigation is conducted utilizing panel data analysis of energy data across the G7. First and second-generation unit root tests have been used. Cointegration tests and the Vector Error Correction Model have been applied to see short-term and long-term relationships between renewable energy-sourced electricity production and combustible energy-sourced electricity production. Additionally, predictive modeling, employing SARIMA and Machine Learning model (Prophet) with Python, is employed to forecast future trends in energy production. This comprehensive analysis sheds light on the profound impact of geopolitical events on the energy landscape of influential global economies. The results of the econometrics and predictive models show that there is a significant effect of Russia-Ukrainian conflicts on electricity production in favor of more secure and clean energy. This trend change in renewable energy-sourced electricity production should fortify more regulatory aspects.

Exploring crisis-driven return spillovers in APEC stock markets: A frequency dynamics analysis

This study investigates return spillovers in APEC region stock markets influenced by three major crises (the global financial crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Russia- Ukraine conflict). The Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach with the Baruník and Křehlík (2018) methodology is employed. The results indicate that the spillover effect is crisis-sensitive, time-varying, and frequency-dependent across the APEC countries' equity markets. The GFC had the most significant spillover effect, followed by COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While New Zealand, Vietnam, and the Philippines are the net risk recipients, the larger economies of the US, Canada, and Mexico are net risk contributors. Moreover, we analyzed return spillover across three different frequencies for three sub-periods, revealing that the GFC dominates short-term spillovers (five days/one week), while COVID-19 dominates long-term (above five days). Results reveal a fascinating aspect of hedging, highlighting that its costs are higher over the long term than the short term. Interestingly, hedging proves to be more effective over a long time, particularly during crises, thus emphasizing the crucial role played by the time-investment horizon factor.

Sustainable rural development indicators in Bulgaria, Germany, Poland, Romania and the Netherlands: a review of data

This study examines indices of sustainable rural development in Bulgaria, Germany, Poland, Romania and the Netherlands. The European Union has consistently supported its policy on sustainable rural development and allocated budgetary funds to provide financial assistance. The energy crisis that followed the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict prompted the European Union to adopt stricter measures regarding sustainable development and energy. To achieve these objectives, it is crucial to accurately identify regional issues and ensure that the established goals are practical and achievable. Some European Union countries have made significant progress in this direction, while others have yet to do so. Therefore, this study is aimed to examine the differences and difficulties of rural development in selected countries of the European Union through data and literature review methods. In the study, the data on population, GDP per capita, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the economic impact of agriculture, and renewable energy are compared for the countries selected at the rural areas and the data on employment, poverty levels, education and rural digitization are compared. Netherlands and Germany exhibit adherence to the goals of sustainable rural development, while Poland has made progress in several areas towards sustainable rural development. In contrast, according to the study, Bulgaria and Romania require more significant measures to achieve sustainable rural development. Although both countries have some strengths, it is imperative that all relevant parties participate in the process to ensure sustainability. Education is a crucial prerequisite for rural development. However, the percentage of educated individuals in these countries has decreased. Furthermore, it is crucial to provide rural areas with information about digitization and establish the required infrastructure. Moreover, the adoption of smart villages should be considered as a solution, in which all stakeholders can efficiently benefit from education and digitization, and sustainable resources can be developed.

Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: International Humanitarian Law and Civilian Settlements

The research analyzes the views of the International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and UN Charter violations in the case of the invasion of civilian settlements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict for justice. The conflict, which took place on February 24, 2022, has raised serious concerns about violations of the UN Charter and IHL and the protection of civilians. This research collected data and information from various primary and secondary sources, including reports of international organizations, legal documents, and journal analysis. A qualitative approach was used to analyze the impact of the invasion of civilian settlements on IHL in the case of the Russia and Ukraine case. The results show that the view of IHL in the context of the invasion of civilian settlements in the Russia-Ukraine case has caused great harm to civilians, ranging from damage to homes, infrastructure, and public facilities, including casualties. It also appears that Russia has ignored the guiding principles of the UN Charter. To overcome this problem, several steps can be taken. First, there is a need to increase understanding and awareness of IHL among all parties involved in the conflict. Second, increase efforts to maintain brotherhood between nations. Third, working together to assist in humanitarian terms in the event of armed conflict, famine, and starvation. The resulting policy implications and recommendations can be used as a guide for policymakers and practitioners to improve the humanitarian protection of civilians in the future.

Relevance of International Law in Preventing International Conflict: A Case Study of Russia-Ukraine

Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 raises the question of the relevance of international law which is supposed to preserve international peace. In the context of the current Russia-Ukraine war, the legitimacy and applicability of international law are being questioned, as it has not been able to protect human rights, which are grossly violated in such a war. In this context, it becomes very pertinent to revisit the idea and practice of international law to find out where the fault lies, why it fails to provide the solution to international conflict, and what can be done to make the body of international law serve its purpose in the true sense. In light of these questions, this article attempts to examine the limitations of international law in relation to addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to reflect on how international law can become an instrument of protecting human rights by preventing international conflict and ensuring international peace.

Dynamic relationship between marine fisheries economic development, environmental protection and fisheries technological Progress—A case of coastal provinces in China

With the deepening of economic globalization and regional economic integration, as well as the emergence of “black swan” events such as the novel coronavirus epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marine fisheries is increasingly linked to national strategic interests and economic lifeblood. Under the new situation, it is necessary to explore the synergistic evolution of marine fisheries economic development, environmental protection and fisheries technological progress, so as to help the sustainable and healthy development of marine fisheries. Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces and cities in China, from 2006 to 2020, this study constructs an integrated framework of a marine fisheries economy–environment–technology system and utilizes methods such as entropy method, Tapio decoupling index, coupling coordination degree model, and panel vector autoregressive model to analyze its comprehensive development, collaborative evolution, and dynamic correlation mechanism. Results show the following: (1) The comprehensive development index of the fisheries economy and technology subsystems was generally on the rise, but that of the marine environment subsystem was on the decline and fluctuating. (2) The development of the marine fisheries economy–technology subsystem was relatively coordinated, but the decoupling of marine environment from fisheries economy and technology was relatively obvious. The three marine fisheries subsystems reached reluctant coordination, but most of the regions shifted from being driven by economy–environment coupling to leading by economy–technology coupling, which indicates that the deteriorating marine environment hindered the marine fisheries system from achieving high-level coordinated symbiosis. (3) The three marine fisheries subsystems possessed self-reinforcing mechanisms, but the positive effect was relatively limited in long-term development. Moreover, the marine fisheries environment subsystem has yet to achieve sustainable and benign interaction with the economy and technology subsystems. Therefore, it is urgent to take quality and efficiency improvement as the core, facilitating the leap of marine fisheries economy, adopt green environmental protection as the key, consolidating the bearing foundation of marine environment, and employ scientific innovation as the sail, effectively playing the leading role of fisheries technology.

Future of European Security Policies: Is Geopolitical Europe Possible?

Since the aftermath of World War II, the pursuit of European autonomy in ensuring its security began with the 1950s French proposal for a pan-European defense force, though never realized. The Lisbon Treaty facilitated Union representation as a legal entity and introduced Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) to deepen defense ties. Geopolitical ambitions increased with von Der Leyen's 2019 call for a Geopolitical Commission, preceding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global geopolitical shifts amplify the need for a robust European role. However, EU's historical struggle in forging a strong security policy fuels skepticism. This study assesses the EU's foreign policy in the Mediterranean and Black Sea amidst regional turmoil, employing a neo-classical realist lens and a global perspective.

Carbon conundrums: Geopolitical clashes and market mayhem in the race for sustainability

This research presents an in-depth investigation into the dynamic correlation between geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets utilizing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) technique. The analysis focuses on the interconnectedness between the Geopolitical Risk Index Daily (GPRD) and vital carbon pricing instruments, specifically the Intercontinental Exchange Endex European Union Allowance (ECEFDC), KraneShares California Carbon Allowance Strat ETF (KCCAK), Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange China Emission Allowances Online Transactions (SAXCEA), and S&P Global Ex-Japan LargeMidCap Carbon Efficient Index (SPGJ). The daily fluctuations were traced from May 2021 to July 2023. The analysis is divided into short- and long-term connectedness, with particular emphasis on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the GPRD's spillover on carbon markets. The short-term connectedness (1–5 days) between GPRD and ECEFDC shows variability, fluctuating between 10% and 40%. Conversely, long-term connectedness exhibited a significant increase during the conflict, peaking at approximately 34% by mid-2022. The analysis of the Total Dynamic Connectedness (TCI) between the GPRD and the KCCAK indicates comparable magnitudes, although with minor initial discrepancies. The short-term connectedness of GPRD and KCCAK decreases from its peak of approximately 10% to approximately 1%. Conversely, long-term connectedness varies between approximately 32% and 2% from May 2022 onwards. The long-term connectedness between GPRD and SAXCEA revealed variable patterns, peaking at around 18% at the beginning of the sample period and rapidly reducing to around 1% within two months. The analysis of the connectedness between GPRD and the SPG) identifies intense fluctuations in both TCI and long-term connectedness. After an initial increase and decrease, these patterns rebound and experience another increase. This research provides significant insights into the complex dynamics of geopolitical conflicts and carbon markets, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on carbon market behavior.

Everyday life in the shadow of the border: the Polish-Russian borderland since the war in Ukraine – recognizing the phenomenon

ABSTRACT The local community in the Polish-Russian border area has been experiencing constant closures and openings since the delimitation of the border. Despite that, the residents used the border as a resource until the outbreak of war in Ukraine. All actions of the central authorities restricting cross-border mobility in the Polish-Russian borderland were treated by the residents as a temporary impediment, to which they were, to some extent, accustomed as they lived in a region with strong exposure to geopolitical risks. With the outbreak of war, the Polish-Russian border area became an isolated border region. Residents of the Polish-Russian borderland face the challenge of reorganizing their daily lives and counteracting the negative effects of permanent isolation. This article seeks to investigate how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the daily lives of these residents through a series of expert interviews.

An in-Depth Analysis of Military Casualties: Predicting Russian Losses in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict employs sophisticated data science methods and time series forecasting techniques to analyze Russian military casualties within a specific timeframe. The study aims to unravel the intricate dynamics of conflict by scrutinizing complex patterns and trends in the available data. The research encompasses a thorough examination of casualties, including soldiers, equipment, and vehicles, with the incorporation of key performance metrics like accuracy, MAE, MSE, RMSE, and R2. These metrics provide a quantitative assessment of forecasting models, enhancing the analysis by offering insights into the reliability and predictive capabilities of these models. The inclusion of forecasting models introduces a prognostic element, contributing valuable perspectives on potential future scenarios. The results not only enhance understanding of the ongoing conflict but also offer insights crucial for military decision-makers, politicians, and scholars involved in strategic analysis and risk assessment. By integrating advanced analytical techniques and performance metrics, this research aspires to provide a comprehensive and well-informed perspective on the evolving dynamics of the conflict, facilitating more effective decision-making in the realms of military strategy and policy.

The Brazilian fertilizer diplomacy: the case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the threat to world food security

The Brazilian fertilizer diplomacy: the case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the threat to world food security

Network interlinkages between artificial intelligence and green energy dynamics during the War in a Pandemic: An application of Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregressions

We investigate time-varying network interlinkages between artificial intelligence development and green energy market dynamics during the War in a Pandemic. While regarding AI development, we use First Trust NASDAQ Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF, Global X Robotics and Artificial Intelligence and ishares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence, and the green energy market, including green bonds, clean energy, wind energy, solar energy, natural gas, and crude oil using seven Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregression fashions. During the short, medium, and long run, this paper differentiates dynamically between network interlinkages between these markets. We found some noteworthy results in our study. We show that network interlinkages exhibit remarkable differences over time. Interlinkages between networks are increased in the short, medium, and long term due to transient events occurring in markets during the studied period. As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the long-term ties within the system are significantly impacted. Additionally, based on net directional linkages, market directional links indicate a shift in roles (from shock receiver to shock transmitter) during the epidemic and at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Observations of short- and medium-term trends reveal that all three indexes for artificial intelligence development are shock receivers from outside, which is transmitted to the green energy sector. The results indicate that artificial intelligence development persists as shock receivers in terms of long-horizon measures but become shocking transmitters during the illness crisis of COVID-19 (from January 2019 to January 2020) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (from early 2022).

Comparing the performance of Qatari banks: Islamic versus conventional, amidst major shocks

This paper analyzes the performance of Islamic banks (IBs) in Qatar compared to their conventional counterparts (CBs), considering the effects of four major events: The subprime crisis, economic blockade, Covid pandemic, and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. We collected quarterly data from seven listed Qatari banks (4 CBs and 3 IBs). We examine and compare their performance and financial ratios evolution from January 2008 to December 2022 in terms of profitability, asset growth, solvency, liquidity risk, management investment preference, and operating efficiency. We use the t-test to evaluate the effects of the four major shocks on IBs and CBs performance.

How Chinese Short Video News Cover Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Case Study of Pengpais Douyin Account

Since February 2022, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has changed dramatically, with the outbreak of an armed conflict on a scale that has attracted widespread international attention. As a representative of Chinas mainstream media biased towards internationalization, Pengpai is naturally extremely concerned about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To capture attention on the development of Chinese mainstream media and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the author adopted a content analysis approach to analyze how Chinese mainstream media, Pengpai, published news about the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Douyin and summarize some of the Pengpai reports (N=64). Overall, the research finds that by referencing more Chinese citation sources, particularly the news media, Pengpai demonstrates its professionalism. At the same time, the analysis reveals that Pengpais tendency to report on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is in line with the Chinese governments attitude, with a neutral stance and calls for peace as well as putting people first.

Tail risk spillover effects in commodity markets: A comparative study of crisis periods

This research aims to investigate the propagation of extreme downside risk, commonly referred to as tail risk, within commodity markets using an innovative CAViaR-based connectivity model. We also evaluate the influence of various crises, including the global financial crisis, the shale oil revolution, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on the dynamic relationships among seventeen different commodity markets. Our findings reveal a diverse pattern of interconnections among these markets during distinct crisis periods. Surprisingly, we observe that the nature of these interconnections is remarkably similar during geopolitical and health crises. Notably, the spillover effects between different commodity categories are more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict than during the global financial crisis and the shale oil revolution. However, it is important to note that the total risk spillovers are more substantial during the global financial crisis. Furthermore, our analysis delves into the unique characteristics of each market, revealing that precious metals can function as a safe haven for both energy and industrial metals during times of economic turbulence.