Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Research Articles

Management of Risks and Threats in the Black Sea: Future Scenarios and Romania's Involvement

Given the plasticity of the current geopolitical environment and the increasingly visible concern of NATO and the EU related to security in the Black Sea region in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the present article adopts a multidimensional approach to assess regional risks and threats. The paper begins by providing a comprehensive overview of the current security situation, focusing on diverse challenges that include both conventional and hybrid threats. Drawing on a diverse range of academic sources, policy documents and security analyses, and employing an empirical qualitative research approach, this study examines the factors that contribute to regional instability, such as territorial disputes, military buildup and hybrid threats. An essential point of this article is Romania’s role in addressing the identified risks and threats. The analysis investigates Romania’s position as a NATO and EU member state and its contributions to regional security initiatives. In addition, it highlights the importance of inter-institutional cooperation and coordination for strengthening Romania’s resilience in the face of complex security challenges. Overall, this article provides not only a comprehensive analysis of the security landscape in the Black Sea region, but also valuable insights into the potential paths that future developments could take.

Războiul ruso-ucrainean și impactul său asupra securității cibernetice în NATO și în UE

Since early 2022, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, cyberspace has been extensively utilised, with cyber operations playing a pivotal role in information concealment, deception, and attacks on critical infrastructure. Warfare has evolved, growing more intricate, and the amalgamation of cyber actions with hard power effects is progressively causing greater disruption. Cyber actions have extended beyond Ukraine’s borders, influencing neighbouring NATO and EU member states. These incidents are as pertinent as they are perilous for the security of states on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. This article explores the imperative for alliance cooperation and the development of cyber capabilities, doctrines, and strategies to foster a security environment conducive to the region. As a NATO and EU member state situated on the Eastern flank, Romania must remain a bastion of stability and a provider of security in the region. The alliances Romania is part of must adapt to confront these challenges.

The Effects of Trade Related Sanctions on Russia on Kazakhstan’s International Trade in Goods

The aim of this study is to explore the effects of sanctions on the international trade of Kazakhstan using data from TradeMap database. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought instability to the broader Eurasian continent and significantly affected neighboring states. Kazakhstan and Russia share the second-longest international land border and both participate in the Eurasian Economic Union with a high level of economic integration. Given Kazakhstan's landlocked status, the country relies on Russian territory for its main export routes. Despite expectations of potential issues with oil and gas transportation for Kazakhstan due to sanctions on Russia, there was an increase in mineral exports from Kazakhstan in 2022, resulting in a positive trade balance. High energy prices and inflation in the EU at the start of the invasion led to the delay of oil and gas import bans by the bloc until late 2022. There is also evidence of sanction evasion by Kazakhstani companies, reflected in changes in the structure of exports to Russia. This has prompted visits by officials from sanctioning countries and increased monitoring. Overall, the conflict and subsequent comprehensive sanctions have created uncertainty for investors and require scenario-based long-term planning and additional compliance costs. It is recommended to improve awareness of local companies about the possibility of violating sanctions through corporate training and cooperation with business associations. This will help local businesses to prevent the risk of being subjected to secondary sanctions.

Germany's Response towards Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine war has had a profound impact on energy security in Europe, with Germany facing unique challenges and opportunities as one of the largest energy consumers in the region. This case study examines the implications of the conflict on energy security, focusing on Germany's response. It analyzes the reasons behind Germany's support for the project, such as diversification of energy sources, economic interests, and political influence. It also delves into the concerns raised by the European Union and the United States regarding the project's impact on energy diversification, geopolitical dynamics, and the interests of Eastern European countries. The findings contribute to the understanding of energy security dynamics and offer valuable insights for policymakers, energy experts, and stakeholders involved in shaping resilient and sustainable energy systems amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

South Caucasus in the Phase of Russian-Ukrainian War: New Security Challenges and Possible Scenarios for Development

The paper mainly examines the economic, political and military situation in the South Caucasus after the start of Russian-Ukrainian war. In the paper we are focused on the question of what kind of consequences does the Russian-Ukrainian war has on the countries of the South Caucasus. Relying on the analytical-forecasting approach, we also are trying to forecast what developments can be expected in this region. On this regard we especially look onto the facts from Armenia’s perspective. Of course, the discussion of the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan was also under our great attention, because we also had set a task to compare the processes that took place in the three countries of the region.
 The modernity of the topic can be measured, first of all, by its global political significance: Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to be on the top of world political processes. On the other hand, it is actual when studying political and economic processes in the post-Soviet territory. By and large, as a result, the South Caucasus is a part of the European and Middle Eastern security sphere, or at least has an important role in them. Therefore, the ongoing developments in this region are not local and may also affect the European, Middle Eastern and the processes also in other regions.
 Russian-Ukrainian conflict has affected on foreign policy behavior of the Southern Caucasus countries. The region is now under the turbulence zone, so we are not aware from being faced by new challenges and security issues. Since we have highly evaluated the impact of the conflict on the countries of the region, we have also tried to make certain predictions regarding possible future development scenarios, which could be as recommendations for foreign policy decision making structures of Armenia.

Unraveling Turkish agricultural market challenges: Consequences of COVID‐19, Russia–Ukraine conflict, and energy market dynamics

AbstractFor a significant global segment, the volatility in grain prices presents a substantial menace to food accessibility and security. In the global pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUW), numerous nations were caught off guard, exacerbating this predicament and leading to instances where citizens faced purchasing restrictions on sunflower oil. This study employs the VAR (1)‐Asymmetric BEKK‐Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model to assess the extent of risks stemming from the pandemic and RUW in critical Turkish agricultural commodity markets: namely, wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil. The analysis reveals that the conditional variances of their return series are positively influenced by short‐ and long‐term uncertainties. With the escalations in the global oil market, the enduring hazards within these selected markets in Türkiye have intensified concurrently. The COVID‐19 pandemic has induced a decrease in long‐term uncertainty within wheat and barley markets, wherein noteworthy spillover risks in the barley, corn, and sunflower oil markets have exacerbated risks in the corn market. Empirical findings imply that COVID‐19 and RUW disrupt the agricultural supply chain, leading to impediments in food provisioning and security. The outcomes provide valuable insights to fortify policies, guarantee consistent access to plant‐based protein, and address nutritional insecurity within the nation. These policy measures align with the initiatives undertaken by the United Nations and Türkiye, which actively engage in establishing a grain corridor to facilitate Ukraine's grain exports, thereby ensuring food security and safeguarding agricultural lands. [EconLit Citations: A1, E3, G1, Q0, Q1, Q2, Q4].

An empirical analysis of the dynamic impact of DeFi on GCC foreign exchange forward markets: portfolio implication

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the conditional equicorrelation and cross-quantile dependence between the DeFi, European and GCC currency markets (Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the GARCH-DECO model and cross-quantilogram framework.FindingsThe findings reveal evidence of weak and negative average equicorrelations between the examined markets through time, excluding the COVID-19 outbreak and Russia–Ukraine conflict, which is consistent with the literature examining relationships in different markets. From the cross-quantilogram model, the authors note that the dependence between DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange rate markets is greatest in the short run and diminishes over the medium- and long-term horizons, indicating rapid information processing between the markets under consideration, as most innovations are transmitted in the short term.Practical implicationsFor the pairs of DeFi and currency markets, the static and dynamic optimal weights and hedging ratios are also estimated, providing new empirical data for portfolio managers and investors.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the most important research looking into the conditional correlation and predictability between the DeFi, EURO and GCC foreign exchange markets. More importantly, this study provides the first empirical proof of the safe-haven, hedging and diversification qualities of DeFi, EURO and GCC currencies, and this work also covers the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war with the use of a single dynamic measure produced by the GARCH-DECO model. In addition, the directional predictability between variables under consideration using the cross-quantilogram model is examined, which can be capable of capturing the asymmetry in the quantile dependent structure. The findings are helpful for both policymakers and investors in improving their trading selections and strategies for risk management in different market conditions.

The Subprime Crisis: A Systemic Failure in Financial Markets

This paper delves into an analysis of the 2008 Financial Crisis, exploring its relevance and influence on the current complex global macroeconomic landscape, including the COVID-19 economy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Against the backdrop of frequent uncertainty and fluctuations in the global economy, the recent recognition of the 2022 Economic Nobel Prize emphasizes the importance of studying financial crises. The article begins by examining three key factors that contributed to the 2008 Financial Crisis: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, subprime mortgages, and credit default swaps. It then explores the far-reaching consequences of the crisis, highlighting specific examples to illustrate its impact. Furthermore, the paper explores the changes implemented in response to the crisis, focusing on two dimensions: the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III. It discusses the implementation and effects of these regulatory measures in the post-crisis era. Lastly, the paper underscores the significance of the 2008 Financial Crisis and its application to contemporary economic challenges amidst a complex external environment. By drawing connections between past and present crises, this research aims to shed light on potential solutions and inform policy decisions in the face of ongoing economic challenges.

Dynamic Evaluation of Sealing and Site Optimization for Underground Gas Storage in Depleted Gas Reserve: A Case Study

In the post-epidemic economic recovery background, under the influence of the international situation brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world is facing a significant rebound in total energy consumption. In order to seek a smooth transition for national energy low-carbon transformation, it is urgent that research be conducted on the trap dynamic sealing capacity evaluation and site optimization for underground storage in depleted gas reserves. Based on the geological data of Block S in Northeast China, combined with a dynamic acoustic test and a static triaxial test, a rock mechanical property model for wells is established, and the stress model of the underground storage in depleted gas reserves before construction is inverted. The sealing of the cap rock and faults in the underground gas storage is evaluated from both static and dynamic perspectives. The results show that the maximum horizontal principal stress of the cap rock and reservoir before construction is distributed between 48–76 MPa and 50–85 MPa, respectively. The reservoir of the Yingcheng Formation has strong stratigraphic mechanical strength and can be used as the main space for underground gas storage. The global cap rock shear safety factor is between 0.7–0.9, and the fault slip factor is only 0.1, indicating that this reservoir has strong dynamic closure sealing and is suitable for construction, thereby realizing the dynamic evaluation of sealing and site optimization for underground gas storage in a depleted gas reserve, providing a guarantee for the safe and stable operation of its subsequent expansion, multi-cycle injection, and production.

Economic Impact on Russia After the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Based on the premise of the outbreak of war in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict war, the following article examines the impact on the Russian macro and micro economy. Raw oil, fertilizer fuels and gas energy are the main pillars of the Russian economy, while the domestic economy is dominated by the service sector. The methodology of research on the Russian economy is the integration of information and data through academic articles. One of the main sources of damage to the Russian economy was found to be the series of economic sanctions implemented by the United States and the European Union, and the main groups affected by these losses, in terms of data, were the wealthy Russians and senior members of the government leadership. At the macro level, Russian energy exports have suffered a severe setback, with a larger percentage drop compared to previous years. In the meanwhile, however, the losses to the Russian economy and the impact from inflation have been reduced by increasing the share of trade with the Chinese market and improving the domestic economic policies. This study will help to explore the development of a more appropriate economic policy in Russia and the direction of foreign trade, as well as recommendations for the reorganization of the economic structure in the country. However, the drawback of the study is that the material or content of the study may not always have a clear political stance, which may affect the judgment of researcher to the real state of the Russian economy.

Ukrainian children during the war in the columns of the newspaper "Svoboda" (USA)

The article analyzes texts on the situation of Ukrainian children in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, published in the newspaper "Svoboda" (USA). The author examines publications distributed during the first 100 days of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine. The analysis shows that approximately 10% of publications on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are devoted to the experiences of Ukrainian children. It is worth noting that almost half of these articles are enriched with illustrations illustrating the drama of children during the war, which increases the credibility, informativeness and emotional tone of the materials. The author distinguishes three dominant thematic categories in publications devoted to Ukrainian children during the conflict: the suffering of children, the aspirations of Ukrainian children for peace and triumph over the enemy, and providing support to Ukrainian children. It should be noted that the newspaper "Svoboda" (USA) effectively increases awareness of the scope of the conflict, drawing international attention to the difficult situation of Ukrainian children.

The Function of Geopolitical Risk on Carbon Neutrality Under the Shadow of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from Russia's Sectoral CO2 Emissions by High-Frequency Data and Quantile-Based Methods

The Function of Geopolitical Risk on Carbon Neutrality Under the Shadow of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from Russia's Sectoral CO2 Emissions by High-Frequency Data and Quantile-Based Methods

UKRAINIAN-POLISH RELATIONS DURING THE WAR: FINANCIAL ASPECT

This article delves into the complex international relations between Ukraine and Poland amidst the backdrop of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Focused on military, financial, and humanitarian aspects, the study examines the extent of support provided by various nations, emphasizing the role of Poland as an early and significant contributor. Utilizing extensive data, the article reveals the magnitude of financial aid, with the United States and Germany leading the contributions. Additionally, it explores non-refundable aid, highlighting the diverse sources and amounts. The authors scrutinize military, financial, and humanitarian commitments, shedding light on the substantial assistance directed towards priority state budget expenditures. Despite challenges, Poland's multifaceted support, including the provision of residential modules and social benefits for displaced Ukrainians, underscores the depth of collaboration. However, the article acknowledges hurdles in fostering transparent diplomatic relations, citing the influence of political elites and speculative discourse surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The study concludes with a snapshot of the refugee situation, emphasizing Poland's significant role in providing legal recognition and social assistance to over 1,7 million Ukrainian citizens. Overall, the analysis paints a nuanced picture of the evolving dynamics between Ukraine and Poland during this critical period. Keywords: military situation, Ukrainian-Polish relations, financial support, cooperation

Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on the International Situation in Russia

The complex Russo-Ukrainian conflict, rooted in historical, political, and territorial contentions, has far-reaching implications that extend beyond regional boundaries. This ongoing conflict has fundamentally reshaped Russia's global stance through its multifaceted impact on Western relations, economic repercussions, security recalibrations, and strategic use of propaganda. In navigating a way forward, diplomatic negotiations, leveraging multilateral forums, and addressing core grievances emerge as promising avenues. Diplomacy, facilitated by impartial mediators, emerges as a pivotal instrument for mutual comprehension and conflict resolution. Embracing multilateralism and active participation in international organizations not only fosters open dialogues but also facilitates collaborative solutions. An essential component of lasting tranquility involves addressing underlying issues, encompassing concerns over minority rights and disputed territories. Successfully resolving these foundational matters holds the potential to restore Russia's credibility, cultivate cross-border collaboration, and bolster the stability of the region. By embracing productive diplomatic initiatives, Russia can look forward to fortifying its global relations, fostering economic progress, and strengthening the foundations of international security. In the midst of these challenges, the quest for peaceful resolutions underscores the potential for broader international cooperation, ultimately contributing to a more stable and prosperous global landscape.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict from 2014 to 2023 and the Significance of a Strategic Victory in Cyberspace

The article explores Russian engagement in cyberspace during the conflict with Ukraine. Many experts have been surprised not only by the lack of coordination between offensive military operations in cyberspace and other domains, but also by the absence of significant cyberattacks. The central argument revolves around the perceived inadequacy of Russian capabilities. However, the authors contend that such an assessment is flawed and stems from the imposition of Western expectations onto a non-Western actor. They argue that the Russians’ employment of cyberspace not only aligns with their strategic culture but also represents a continuation of their utilisation of cyber as a tool for disinformation, which was previously observed during the war with Georgia in 2008 and the initial phase of the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. The aim of the article is threefold. Firstly, it discusses the Western strategic discourse regarding the potential use of cyberspace in warfare. In contrast to the position of Western experts, the second part of the article presents the Russian approach. The third section describes how the application of Russian cyber warfare concepts has played out in practice during the conflict in Ukraine.

Addressing the dollar crisis by investigating underlying causes, effects, and strategic solutions in emerging economies

Foreign exchange reserves (FER), especially dollar assets, are vital for a developing country to maintain economic stability, foster growth, and protect against unexpected amendments. In recent years, particularly since the onset of COVID-19, several emerging countries have experienced significant economic hardship due to a crisis in foreign reserves. This has led to inflation and disruptions in supply chains, healthcare, and various service facilities. Despite the gravity of this issue, previous studies have not investigated the causes and consequences of such sudden crises. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the causes and consequences of sudden FER crises in a developing country, specifically Bangladesh, through a systematic review. The study also explores innovative process-oriented policies to mitigate the immediate FER crisis. The systematic literature review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. It included 90 articles published between 2020 and 2023. The results discovered that the FER crisis in Bangladesh has been triggered by both external factors (such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade imbalances, and remittances) and internal factors (including large infrastructure projects, complexities in the banking sector, local project subsidies, a managed floating exchange rate, and an over-reliance on the ready-made garments sector). These factors escorted deflation of the national currency, causing further inflation, declining domestic purchasing capacity, and raising concerns about food security. Additionally, price hikes and unauthorized storage of daily necessities made accessing daily essentials challenging for locals. The government has implemented three policy interventions, including managing consumer demand, safeguarding the supply of goods, and regulating continuous market monitoring to overcome the challenges. This study proposes eight innovative process-oriented policy recommendations for mitigating the immediate foreign exchange crisis and promoting sustainable economic development. Overall, this study offers valuable contributions in developing sustainable global economic policies. It fosters improved recovery and reuse of materials and energy while advancing long-term growth in developing nations.

The Impact of Geopolitical Stability on Foreign Investment and Transnational Corporations: A Case Study of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitical stability plays a pivotal role in shaping the global economic landscape, especially concerning foreign investment and transnational corporations (TNCs). This study delves into the intricate relationship between geopolitical stability and these economic factors, employing a case study of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to exemplify their interplay. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, characterized by territorial disputes and political tensions, has had far-reaching consequences on foreign investment and TNCs operating in the region. This study scrutinizes how the conflict's instability has influenced investment decisions and strategies adopted by TNCs. The research combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies, drawing upon economic data, expert opinions, and corporate case studies. The findings indicate a clear correlation between geopolitical stability and foreign investment. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, periods of heightened instability have witnessed reduced foreign investment as risk perceptions rise. TNCs, concerned about the security of their assets and profitability, tend to adopt a cautious approach during such times. Conversely, when geopolitical tensions ease, foreign investment tends to rebound. Moreover, this study explores the strategies employed by TNCs to navigate geopolitical instability. Companies often implement risk management protocols, diversify their portfolios, and forge partnerships with local entities to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical instability. This research contributes to the broader understanding of the impact of geopolitical factors on global economics.

Does Government Performance Influence Public Trust? The Case of Sustainable Development Goals Policies at Local Level

In the recent past, governments have faced a number of crises (i.e. climate change, economic crisis, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict) that affect their overall performance. Crises directly impact citizens as they yield increased unemployment and debt crisis, lead to global warming, spark high inflation, and raise the cost of living. These issues which normally mirror the way governments perform, seem to have an impact on public trust. It remains unclear how and to what extent performance influences public trust. In addition, there has been difficulty identifying accurate ways to measure performance in the public sector, especially at the local level. Using data from IDEA Consult and Gemeente-en stadsmonitor (GSM), we propose to use Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a holistic way of measuring performance and show how this performance determines public trust. Results reveal that the performance in specific SDGs (such as SDG6, SDG7, and SDG9) positively influences public trust, suggesting that government performance in some areas may be more influential in shaping public trust than others. SDG16 has the strongest statistically significant impact on public trust.

CONSEQUENCES OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT AND ITS IMPACT ON ENSURING THE MACROECONOMIC STABILITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA / ՌՈՒՍ-ՈՒԿՐԱԻՆԱԿԱՆ ՀԱԿԱՄԱՐՏՈՒԹՅԱՆ ՀԵՏԵՎԱՆՔՆԵՐԸ ԵՎ ԴՐԱ ԱԶԴԵՑՈՒԹՅՈՒՆԸ ՀՀ ՄԱԿՐՈՏՆՏԵՍԱԿԱՆ ԿԱՅՈՒՆՈՒԹՅԱՆ ԱՊԱՀՈՎՄԱՆ ՎՐԱ

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a significant negative impact on the global economy: slowing economic activity, inflation, emigration. Therefore, ensuring macroeconomic stability in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict becomes relevant, especially in the case of the Armenian economy. Despite the fact that due to the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and sanctions against Russia, there was a slight slowdown in economic activity in the Armenian economy, nevertheless, as a result of the influx of people to Armenia, a significant increase in tourism and a new flow of information technology companies, economic activity increased. Attaching importance to ensuring the macroeconomic stability of the Republic of Armenia in the current difficult geopolitical conditions, the main macroeconomic indicators were analyzed, which served as the basis for assessing the current state of the economy of the Republic of Armenia and presenting the main directions of economic policy implementation.

"New Regionalism" and Its Implementation in Ukrainian Legislation: The Terminology and the Political Implications

This paper investigates the terminology associated with "New regionalism" and its integration into Ukrainian legislation, analyzing its political and administrative implications. "New regionalism" is a contemporary administrative-territorial reform, with a focus on the principle of subsidiarity, which minimizes central authority intervention in local affairs. While not explicitly present in its regulations, certain subsidiarity elements are part of Ukrainian law. The study explores the adoption and implementation of "New regionalism" principles and terminology within the country's legal discourse. The second aim of the study was to examine how "New regionalism" could potentially influence the political dynamics and administrative structures, particularly in the context of decentralization efforts. By employing systematic and comparative methodologies alongside principles of dialectical analysis, the study offers insights into the evolving landscape of Ukrainian political and administrative terminology alongside its structures, which might play a crucial role in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.