The Russia-Ukraine Conflict from 2014 to 2023 and the Significance of a Strategic Victory in Cyberspace

Abstract

The article explores Russian engagement in cyberspace during the conflict with Ukraine. Many experts have been surprised not only by the lack of coordination between offensive military operations in cyberspace and other domains, but also by the absence of significant cyberattacks. The central argument revolves around the perceived inadequacy of Russian capabilities. However, the authors contend that such an assessment is flawed and stems from the imposition of Western expectations onto a non-Western actor. They argue that the Russians’ employment of cyberspace not only aligns with their strategic culture but also represents a continuation of their utilisation of cyber as a tool for disinformation, which was previously observed during the war with Georgia in 2008 and the initial phase of the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. The aim of the article is threefold. Firstly, it discusses the Western strategic discourse regarding the potential use of cyberspace in warfare. In contrast to the position of Western experts, the second part of the article presents the Russian approach. The third section describes how the application of Russian cyber warfare concepts has played out in practice during the conflict in Ukraine.