Russian Supply Research Articles

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Russian supply chain

The Ukraine and Russia war has damaged the worldwide supply chains during the war, several countries imposed dozens of sanctions worldwide which crippled the supply chain of Russia to a great extent. In many nations, bans were also imposed on industrial products, fossil fuels, raw materials, and grains. In this regard, the authors have analysed how the war between Ukraine and Russia has affected the supply chain of Russia, and that analysis is presented in this dissertation. The findings presented by this research have indicated that finished goods, fuels, and energy shortages have augmented inflation. The war affected the routes of transport which in turn impacted the goods and logistics of the commodities by Russia. Due to war, Europe has taken the step to welcome the Russians leaving their country. The sanctions imposed have adversely affected the Russian imports from Europe and exports to Europe. However, European countries such as Poland, Germany, and Finland imported natural gas from Russia and the imports of fossil fuels were increased by nations like Turkey, China, and India. In this way, Russia's earnings from its sales of fossil fuels rose. Unfortunately, everything gets costly because the cost of transport increased, and worldwide prices of energy elevated. Intense inflation was led by this war.

Zeitenwende rządu kanclerza Olafa Scholza – próba bilansu

Changes announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the Russian invasion of Ukraine regarding security and defense policy, energy and relations with Russia became known as Zeitenwende. This word has become a kind of label-symbol of the changes being made, and in diplomacy also a kind of shield against criticism of Germany over the failure of its previous policy toward Russia. The greatest successes in the form of giving up Russian supplies have been in the energy sphere. In the defense fi eld, due to the scale of neglect and structural problems, the outcome of the Bundeswehr’s modernization remains uncertain.

Russian-Ukraine War and its Impact on the European Economy

This study examines the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the economy of Europe, concentrating on trade disruptions, energy security, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the socioeconomic ramifications of the war[1]induced refugee crisis. This study employs the descriptive research design, qualitative research method and a secondary source of data collection. The research uncovers the problems and possibilities coming from the war, as well as the larger implications for economic growth, development, and stability in the area. The results reveal severe interruptions to commercial links between European nations, especially Russia, and Ukraine, with key sectors such as energy, manufacturing, and agriculture facing considerable disruptions. Energy security emerges as a significant worry, spurring attempts to diversify energy sources and lessen dependence on Russian supply. Meanwhile, the war has resulted in a drop in FDI inflows to Russia and Ukraine, aggravating economic concerns in both nations and hurting their growth prospects. Furthermore, the research shows the burden on social welfare systems in European nations hosting migrants, since the inflow of refugees exerts great demands on resources and capabilities. Investments in housing, health care, education, and social welfare are vital for satisfying the different needs of displaced people and facilitating their long-term integration into society. However, issues connected to social cohesiveness, community connections, and political dynamics within host nations also occur. The study recommends diplomatic resolution of the dispute through peaceful discussions, involving European Union (EU) member states- Russia, Ukraine, and other parties. This could involve neutral mediation, de-escalating initiatives, and confidence-building measures.

Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market

SummaryWe use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared with what we observe in the data.

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Germany’s Energy Choice Attitudes among Residents in German States with Nuclear Power Plants in Commission or Decommissioned

This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the Germany public’s energy choices. Along with much of Europe, Germany was hit by Russia reducing and then cutting its gas supplies. Although alternative sources have been found, this exposes the vulnerability of Germany’s energy market to outside control. An online survey of 600 German consumers was conducted in August 2022. The results suggest that 70% of participants were concerned about the shortage of oil and natural gas supply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and 60% were concerned about the shortage of electricity supply. The invasion led many participants to support maximizing the use of existing power plants, including nuclear and coal-fired power plants, as an alternative to dependency on Russian supplies. There was an increase in people supporting the expanded use of renewable energy as a solution to the crisis. States with nuclear power plants were seen as needing to reduce and decarbonize their natural gas and coal-fired power generation while advancing their energy mix. The results suggest that the Energiewende approach and objectives have broad public support.

Trends in the development of EU energy policy at the present stage

The issue of energy security and energy independence of the EU is one of the key factors in ensuring the stable development of the association. The subject of the study is the energy concepts of the European Union. The object of the study is the modern energy policy of the EU countries. The countries of the European Union are among the world's largest importers and exporters of energy resources, and therefore one of the criteria for EU energy security is the creation of secure logistics chains for uninterrupted energy supplies, since this factor has always been one of the most important problems in energy security. However, despite all the data that the European Union has, this area is a source of numerous problems for ensuring energy security that the EU faces at the current stage of its development. The methodological basis of the study is a systematic analysis and a geo-economic approach. The systematic approach was used in the work to identify the reasons for the transformation of EU energy concepts in the context of the energy crisis. The geo-economic approach allows us to qualitatively consider this issue from the point of view of economics and geopolitics of the countries of Eastern and Western Europe in the context of energy transition. The novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive analysis of the concept of energy security in the complex in the context of energy transfer. The authors pay special attention to the analysis of the energy policy of the European Union, numerous new initiatives and documents related to this area, as well as the development of the concept of green energy. The authors highlight the challenges that the EU will face on the way to building a stable and safe energy sector. The paper also examines the impact of the EU's energy policy on the concept of European unity. Attention is being paid to the EU's attempts to diversify energy supplies, which plays an important role in the context of the Ukrainian crisis and complications from the loss of Russian supplies. The authors conclude that the lack of internal unity within the EU does not allow for an effective and sustainable energy policy, since the European Union does not have a common energy legislation, and infrastructure development between the countries of Western and Eastern Europe is overly diversified, which does not allow us to talk about the transformation of energy policy in the EU countries at the present stage.

Reorientation of trade between the European Union and the Russian Federation under sanctions

The issue of the sustainability of the Russian economy, which is under unprecedential geopolitical pressure, is one of the main and most sensitive in the modern agenda of both Russian and foreign scientific research. The task of identifying the effects and effectiveness of trade restrictive measures faces scientists on both sides of the confrontation. Some need to demonstrate the achieved effect, others need to be convinced of adequate containment and overcoming. Solving this problem is accompanied by a search for new channels of foreign economic relations, both in trade and in the investment, which inevitably raises questions about the possibilities of reorienting Russian foreign trade, which for many years was focused on the EU as the main supplier of material and intangible resources. Since February 2022, the European Union has developed and introduced a significant number of large-scale trade restrictive measures. The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of trade restrictions of EU member states on trade with Russia from the point of view of reorienting European trade flows to other countries in the context of circumventing sanctions and identifying product items for which trade substitution and reorientation to other markets is possible. To achieve this goal, a methodology has been developed and proposed for identifying those product items for which such substitution has not occurred and a certain dependence of European countries on Russian supplies still remains, which means that retaliatory restrictive measures can be applied to these items. The analysis made it possible to identify a significant change in trade flows from EU member countries, replacement of trade due to reorientation to other neutral countries, as well as groups of goods that currently could not be replaced.

Development of the LNG market in the European Union in the context of war Russia-Ukraine

According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, global LNG trade increased by almost 6% year-on-year between January and August 2022. It was dominated by rising demand for the commodity in the European Union. This was driven by sharp cuts in linear gas supplies from Russia, which are linked to the EU's stance of abandoning Russian supplies due to Russia's war with Ukraine, and the subsequent imposition of sanctions by the European Union on Russia. In January-August 2022 alone, LNG imports into the EU increased by as much as 65% (43 bcm) compared to the same period in 2021. Such a significant increase in the supply of LNG to European countries was also made possible by a decline in demand for LNG in the Asia-Pacific region, due to the mild winter, high price levels, and disruptions related to Covid-19 and the aftermath of lockdowns in China. The cut-off of gas supplies from Russia has shown that the LNG market in the EU can play an important role in both the region's energy security and energy transition. In fact, the European Commission treats gas as a blue fuel, much less carbon-intensive than other conventional energy sources such as coal or oil. An additional advantage of LNG is the possibility to transport this fuel from various locations, rapid change of supply directions, and the more extensive possibilities for its storage. For an EU struggling for a stable supply of raw material, pursuing the Green Deal and carrying out an energy transition, this is an option that could become a strategic element in the long term. The research objective of this article is to investigate and analyze how the share of LNG in the EU's energy mix has changed and in what direction it is affecting EU energy security after Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

Pandemic and invasion related inflation in the selected European Union countries

The invasion of Russia in Ukraine brought not only the suffering of the Ukrainian people, but also an unprecedented rise in price levels in Europe. Moreover, the European Union countries underwent a series of negative supply shocks caused by pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and the invasion-induced energy crisis. Through the available data on inflation, the harmonized index of consumer prices and other variables related to it, we analyse the growth of the price level in the EU countries. In this contribution we focus on the first year of the invasion. The methodological tool is cluster analysis in SPSS, as we use the dendrograms and graphs to find out in which countries the supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine and consequent energy crisis have a significant impact in increasing price levels in the EU in 2022. These are countries more energy dependent on Russian suppliers of oil or natural gas.

Assessing the weaponability of enriched uranium trade in the geopolitics of nuclear energy: The EU-Russia interrelations

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 revived the debates over Moscow's grip on the nuclear fuel market. European and American governments had since planned for policies to diminish their reliance on Russian supplies, motivated by fear of the Kremlin using it as a coercive diplomatic tool, drawing parallels with experiences of fossil fuels exportation disruptions. While global interest for atomic energy is on the rise again, this article aims at assessing the weaponability of nuclear fuel trades, i.e., the conditions in which they can be used by suppliers to politically constrain importing nations. Geopolitics scholarship had until recently paid little attention to nuclear power and the few existing works overlooked the supply issue. In this paper, we bridge existing literature on the “energy weapon” to build a renewed analytical framework to identify the conditions in which fuel trade interdependencies can be coercively used. We then applied it to the case of enriched uranium trade between Russia and European Union's member states. Data were gathered through analysis of a textual corpus consisting of articles from three main magazines focused on nuclear power—Nuclear Engineering International, World Nuclear News and NucNet — (n = 439), 14 semi-structured interviews and three international conferences observations. Results show that Russia's weaponization capacity of enriched uranium trades against Europe in low, but not inexistent, thanks to supply diversification strategies, existing inventories, ongoing production overcapacity, transport fluidity and partial dependence of Rosatom on exports. However, countries' vulnerability isn't homogenous through Europe, and the low weapon ability of nuclear fuel is largely dependent on the fragile equilibrium in the supply and demand balance. Finally, this paper identifies the limits of applying weaponization theories developed in the context of fossil fuel trades to the case of nuclear power.

Prospects for Russian Gas in China for the Period until 2035

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the longterm development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the longterm dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country’s participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinсes of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia — 2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

EU commits to phase out Russian supply completely

Oil and Energy TrendsVolume 48, Issue 6 p. 7-8 GAS AND POWER EU commits to phase out Russian supply completely First published: 18 June 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/oet.13022Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. REFERENCES 1 Kpler. Global LNG represents 39% of EU gas imports in 2022. https://www.kpler.com/blog/global-lng-represents-39-of-eu-gas-imports-in-2022#:~:text=Nord%20Stream%201%20was%20Russia%E2%80%99s%20most%20optimised%20pipeline,compared%20to%20around%2040.8%20bn%20m3%20in%202021. Accessed May 26, 2023 2 Nasdaq. EUROPE GAS-Prices remain near 2-year lows on strong inventories. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/europe-gas-prices-remain-near-2-year-lows-on-strong-inventories?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email. Accessed May 26, 2023 3 Financial Times. G7 and EU to ban restart of Russian gas pipelines. https://www.ft.com/content/3568257b-9ab9-43b0-be96-04828b375fa2. Accessed May 26, 2023 4 Reuters. The EU will ban Russian LNG ‘sooner than later,’ Spain's energy minister says. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-will-ban-russian-lng-sooner-than-later-spains-energy-minister-says-2023-05-16/. Accessed May 26, 2023 Volume48, Issue6June 2023Pages 7-8 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Contemporary Dimensions of Serbia’s Regional Foreign Policy

The article gives an insight into the general course of action of the Serbian state aimed at the diversification of hydrocarbon sources with an emphasis on the supply of crude oil. Furthermore, a case with primary goal related to the increase of energy system stability is presented in the light of its secondary psycho-informational influence. Interactions with the Russian leadership are analysed, mainly along the lines of the Serbian position regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the possible accession to the sanction’s regime against the Russian Federation. The methodology of the study is based on a structuralist approach consisting of synchronic interpretation of separate phenomena directed towards the derivation of gross constituent units of relations. The results extrapolate that the practical steps aimed at guaranteeing the energy security of the country show lack of interest to move away from Russian supply of natural gas and crude oil which is in turn intrinsically related to the future general geopolitical stance of official Belgrade. Active diplomacy in the region is concentrated along the Vienna-Budapest axis. The significance of the results arises from the fact that the represented gross constituent units of relations expose a firm course that is diverging from the EU CFSP

Natural gas supply from Russia derived from daily pipeline flow data and potential solutions for filling a shortage of Russian supply in the European Union (EU)

Abstract. Russia is the largest natural gas supplier to the European Union (EU). The invasion of Ukraine was followed by a cutoff of gas supplies from Russia to many EU countries, and the EU is planning to ban or drastically reduce its dependence on Russia. We provide a dataset of daily gas consumption in five sectors (household and public building heating, power, industry, and other sectors) with supply source shares in the EU27 (27 EU member countries) and UK from 2016 to 2022. The datasets are available at Zenodo platform: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7549233 (Zhou et al., 2022). The dataset separates the contributions of Russian imports, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and other supply sources to both direct supply and storage supply for gas consumption estimations. The dataset was developed with a gas network flow simulation model based on mass flow balance by combining data from multiple datasets including daily ENTSOG (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas) pipeline gas transport and storage, ENTSOE (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) daily power production from gas, and Eurostat monthly gas consumption statistics per sector. The annual consumption data were validated against the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and Eurostat datasets. We secondly analyzed the share of gas supplied by Russia in each country to quantify the “gap” that would result from a cessation of all Russian exports to Europe. Thirdly, we collected multiple data sources to assess how national gaps could be alleviated by (1) reducing the demand for heating in a plausible way using the lower envelope of gas empirical consumption – temperature functions, (2) increasing power generation from sources other than gas, (3) transferring gas savings from countries with surplus to those with deficits, and (4) increasing imports from other countries like Norway, the USA, Australia, and northern African countries from either pipelines or LNG imports, accounting for existing capacities. Our results indicate that it should be theoretically possible for the EU to collectively make up for a sudden shortfall of Russian gas by combining the four solutions together, provided a perfect collaboration between EU countries and the UK to redistribute gas from countries with surplus to those with deficits. Further analyses are required to investigate the implications with respect to the costs, including social, economic, and institutional dimensions; political barriers; and negative impacts on climate policies, with inevitable increases in CO2 emissions if the use of coal is ramped up in the power sector.

Consumer Attitudes toward Energy Reduction and Changing Energy Consumption Behaviors

This editorial paper tackles the issue of the consumer attitudes toward energy reduction and changing energy consumption behaviors. This topic is of special relevance today as Europe faces an unprecedented energy crisis as a result of diverting from Russian supplies of oil and gas due to the war in Ukraine. For many years now, Europe has relied upon cheap and affordable Russian oil and gas (in fact, the European Green Deal and the strategy for the decarbonization of the economy by 2030 were indirectly based on it), but the transition to the renewable future now appears to be jeopardized. As energy prices are soaring globally, it is not yet clear whether this would have an effect on significantly changing consumer behavior and increasing energy efficiency and security as many consumers are reluctant to change their old habits and are used to having their energy on demand and for any possible occasion. However, changing energy consumption behaviors would be beneficial not only for handling the current energy crisis but also for setting the long-term trends with respect to energy saving, which is crucial for fighting global warming and climate change while sustaining economic growth.

Problems of adaptation of the electrical industry to sanction limitations (on the case of Izolyator Group)

The article discusses the main problems that the Russian electrical industry faces in the modern period of sanctions restrictions. The article analyzes the situation with the provision of electrical engineering with imported materials on the example of the production of high-voltage cable fittings and high-voltage bushings, and also considers the current possibilities for their import substitution. The authors analyzed the possibility of supplying materials from new Russian suppliers of materials and suppliers from friendly countries, and came to the conclusion that under the current conditions, companies in the industry have the ability to fulfill the tasks of producing electrical equipment for the Russian power grid complex.

The state of China–Russia cooperation over natural gas

Russia signed a 30-year agreement to supply natural gas to China just before launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was the second such agreement between the countries, with the first occurring after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. China, however, appears reluctant to become dependent on Russian supplies and has been careful to structure the partnership to maintain the upper hand. This means that Russia’s efforts to divert gas exports eastward following its energy divorce with the European Union will achieve limited gains, leaving potentially 150 billion cubic metres of production capacity stranded for the foreseeable future.

Movement to the East: development of Russian energy exports to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region

Diversification of energy exports in favor of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in a tense geopolitical situation is one of the most important tasks for Russia. The characteristics of the current state of the oil and gas markets in the Asia-Pacific region are presented. The analysis made it possible to estimate the shares of key suppliers of oil and gas to the countries of this region, as well as to determine the current role of Russian supplies. A special place in the work is given to the analysis of foreign sanctions against Russia. Potential risks, including those associated with the tanker fleet, which can have a negative impact over the horizon of 5–7 years, are analyzed, and key advantages that make it possible to maintain the volume of energy exports are highlighted. It is noted that Russia is already present in the markets of a significant number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, but only in China it occupies a leading position. It is concluded that Russian companies should expand the number of consuming countries without concentrating on the largest consumers, such as India and China, which have supply diversification strategies and also act as potential targets for secondary sanctions due to the purchase of Russian goods. A promising direction of such a policy is not only the expansion and development of its own supply infrastructure to the Asia-Pacific region, but also the search for possible joint projects to create/expand the infrastructure of consumer countries. The result is an analysis of the possibilities for expanding Russia's participation in meeting the energy demand of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, taking into account logistics, environmental and technological risks.

Prospects for Russian gas in China

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390-560 billion cubic meters, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the long-term dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country's participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinces of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

Заготовительное дело в сфере военного имущества: к деятельности Русского заготовительного комитета в Америке в 1917 г.

In the article has been attempted to consider the position of the Russian Supply Committee in America, the problems and the state of its structural units during the significant 1917 year of last active cooperation with the Allied powers in military procurement during the First World War. As the Russian Supply Committee is currently presented fragmentally in the scientific historical literature, the author has identified the following purpose of this article — to reduce and expand the available material on the activities of the Russian Supply Committee into a unified picture, paying special attention to the perception of its activities in the American press, the problem of transportation, the issue of the introduction of liquidation policy in relation to purchase order, efforts to purchase transport property. The article is written on the basis of unpublished sources (materials of the office work of the Russian Supply Committee, correspondence of General N. M. Khrabrov with the Main Directorate for Foreign Supply and the authorized Ambassador from the Russian government B. A. Bakhmetyev, orders and instructions of the Main Directorate for Foreign Supply, materials of the Special Investigative Commission) identified in the funds of the Russian State Historical Archive. As a result, the author concluded that in the conditions of political instability and stagnant organizational and structural problems, the Russian Supply Committee could not properly resolve the issue of purchasing military property on the American market.