Development of the LNG market in the European Union in the context of war Russia-Ukraine

Abstract

According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, global LNG trade increased by almost 6% year-on-year between January and August 2022. It was dominated by rising demand for the commodity in the European Union. This was driven by sharp cuts in linear gas supplies from Russia, which are linked to the EU's stance of abandoning Russian supplies due to Russia's war with Ukraine, and the subsequent imposition of sanctions by the European Union on Russia. In January-August 2022 alone, LNG imports into the EU increased by as much as 65% (43 bcm) compared to the same period in 2021. Such a significant increase in the supply of LNG to European countries was also made possible by a decline in demand for LNG in the Asia-Pacific region, due to the mild winter, high price levels, and disruptions related to Covid-19 and the aftermath of lockdowns in China. The cut-off of gas supplies from Russia has shown that the LNG market in the EU can play an important role in both the region's energy security and energy transition. In fact, the European Commission treats gas as a blue fuel, much less carbon-intensive than other conventional energy sources such as coal or oil. An additional advantage of LNG is the possibility to transport this fuel from various locations, rapid change of supply directions, and the more extensive possibilities for its storage. For an EU struggling for a stable supply of raw material, pursuing the Green Deal and carrying out an energy transition, this is an option that could become a strategic element in the long term. The research objective of this article is to investigate and analyze how the share of LNG in the EU's energy mix has changed and in what direction it is affecting EU energy security after Russia's aggression in Ukraine.