Prospects for Russian gas in China

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390-560 billion cubic meters, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the long-term dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country's participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinces of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.