Federal Districts Of Russia Research Articles

Electrical Energy Consumption Prediction of the Federal District of Russia on the Based of the Reccurent Neural Network

The paper considers the prediction of electrical energy consumption using the recurrent neural network. Neural network is built on the base of the energy consumption data of the major Russian federal districts over the past 13 years. When developing the model, the following dominant factors were taken into account: data on energy consumption over the forecast period; meteorological factors (air temperature, cloudiness, amount of precipitation, wind speed, length of daylight, etc.); date (day, month); data of production calendars (information on the day of the week: weekday / weekend / holiday / shortened); specificity of the industry in the district under consideration (combining statistical information on major centers of federal districts). The factor were selected on the basis of test runs through the neural network of fixed configuration. The relevance of the study is explained by the practical importance of searching for the most accurate methods for predicting the main parameters of the energy market conducted by scientists in most developed countries of the world. The constructed recurrent neural network has yielded more accurate prediction results than the widely used mathematical prediction models based on regression dependencies. The obtained scientific result will help to reduce costs and increase the energy efficiency of the electro-energy subjects in the wholesale electric energy and capacity in Russia.

THE STUDYOF THE АREA OF DISTRIBUTION OF WEST NILE VIRUS IN THE TERRITORY OF THE EUROPEAN PART OF RUSSIA; THE RESULTS OF SEROEPIDEMIOLOGICAL RESEARCH. COMMUNICATION 2: CENTRAL, PRIVOLZHSKY AND NORTH-WESTERN FEDERAL DISTRICTS

Sera of 3951 inhabitants of Central, Privolzhsky and Northwest federal districts of Russia were examined with the use of ELISA-IgG and neutralization test. Antibodies to West Nile virus (WN) were detected in the sera of residents of Voronezh (1,6% of cases), Tula (1,5%), Tambov (0,7%) and Lipetsk(0,6%) regions. Two positive samples have been detected in residents of Moscow and Moscow region, which were possibly infected, during theirs travel to endemic for WN fever regions. All sera obtained from Kaluga, Ryazan, Tver, Vologda, Ulyanovsk regions and The Republic of Tatarstan were negative. Our data, in combination with the morbidity rate of WN fever indicate on epidemiological activity of foci of this infection in the South, the North Caucasus, Privolzhsky (Saratovskaya region) and Central (the forest-steppe zone and Tula region) districts. The northern border of circulation of WN virus probably dispose of the latitude of the Tula region.

The regional allocation of labor resources in the context of economic restructuring and renewal: using a case from Russia

The purpose of the article is to reveal the influence of the state policy of economic restructuring and renewal on the allocation of labor resources in regions and cities of the country. The state policy has an impact on the allocation of labor resources, but causes, at times, conflicting effects. This is especially true during the economic restructuring and renewal period. As a scientific and methodological basis, the analysis of the economic structure and the four-factor shift-share analysis, adapted by the authors in earlier works, were used. The use of statistical data of 98 cities in five federal districts of Russia in 2009–2015 allowed the authors to reveal the ambiguous influence of the state policy of economic restructuring and renewal on the allocation of labor resources by regions and cities of the country. It has been confirmed that the restructuring and renewal policy of the Russian economy, as well as in other countries, is accompanied by changes in the allocation of labor resources. As a positive effect, it can be noted that economic restructuring and renewal contribute to a balance in the spatial allocation of labor resources. As negative effects of economic restructuring and renewal, the authors of the article note the inertial nature of the economic structure (the extractive sector retains a leading position in terms of employment indicators) and a reduction in the labor potential of peripheral cities, which does not correspond to the stated goals of the economic restructuring and renewal policy. It is shown that the city authorities are able to exert a greater influence on changes in the economic structure than it is generally assumed. The authors believe that the states implementing the restructuring and renewal policy should take into account changes in the allocation of labor resources by regions and cities in order to observe the balance in regions’ development and not to fall into a trap in which economic growth of regions attracting labor resources will be achieved at the expense of other regions.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ЭПИДЕМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОЦЕССА ТУБЕРКУЛЁЗА НА ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЯХ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Background. The retrospective assessment of key indicator levels and their trends at the start point of new strategy realization for tuberculosis control in Russia is an important predictor of the global program implementation to reduce the burden of this infection. Materials and methods. We analyzed incidence, prevalence and mortality among general and children population in Russian federal districts, in European and Asian regions, and in countries having a common border with Russia. Results. Presented material confirms the wide spread of tuberculosis in Russia, where the average annual incidence rate for 2005-2015 was 71.9 ± 2.5 0/0000, which attributes Russia to average-burden country. The most important characteristic of the studied period was a stable decreasing tendency of the key TB indicatorsformed by 2015. However, enormously uneven distribution of TB incidence, prevalence and mortality in some federal districts reveals different starting points of the regions. Relatively favorable territories include Central and Crimean Federal Districts, and the most unfavorable are Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts. The TB incidence significantly increases from West to East. Revealed unfavorable increasing tendency of children TB in combination with the trend described above indicates active transmission of TB infection in the Asian part of Russia. We also revealed the likelihood of mutual influence of migratory exchanges of Russian border regions and neighboring countries, which most strongly manifests on territories with low and medium TB incidence rates.

Влияние новых технологий и человеческого капитала на вклад новых укладов в экономику России в предкризисный период

The updated econometric estimates of the influence of new technologies and human capital on the contribution of new technological structures to the per capita GDP in the regions of the Central and North-Western federal districts of Russia are obtained. The article estimates coefficients of elasticity of the contribution of new ways to GDP per capita by the use of the new technologies estimated by capital-labor ratio of work by new fixed assets and by the use of the human capital estimated by a share of busy workers with the higher education. In case of big sizes of coefficients of elasticity of the contribution of new ways to GDP per capita on the use of the new technologies estimated by capital-labor ratio of labor by new fixed assets it is reasonable to increase the investments into fixed assets of the region. In case of big sizes of coefficients of elasticity of the contribution of new ways to GDP per capita on the use of the human capital estimated by a share of busy workers with the higher education it is reasonable to increase, first of all, a share of workers with the highest education.

Crisis Management of Regional Development: Cluster Initiatives in Russia and their Efficiency

The article reports results of research investigating cluster initiatives as a tool for crisis management at the regional level. The indicator helping to assess the regional industrial policy impact has been identified. Based on its values, the federal districts of Russia were classified according to the types of effectiveness of regional crisis management. The key problems of Central and North-Western federal districts were identified. The expediency of studying cluster initiatives of the Central Federal District since its historical development and scale of its regional economies are comparable to European parameters. The study of cluster initiatives allowed to find the cluster initiatives management scheme typical for the practice of stimulating clustering processes embedded in the strategies of social and economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. A quantitative assessment of existing and potential clusters has been carried out on the example of the subjects of the Central Federal District, cluster initiatives have been ranked by types of economic activity. Cluster initiatives were differentiated according to the specifics of the management processes, and the specific nature of cluster initiatives. A factual basis for indicators has been formed in line with the objectives of the cluster policy of the Central Federal District subject. Having compared the indicators of the cluster initiatives specification with the values of the cluster policy implementation indicators, we analyzed the efficiency of cluster initiatives as an element of the regional crisis management.

Non-alcoholic beverages: russian priorities

The article presents data of a survey of 11 850 persons of both sexes and various age groups (from 12 to 60 years) conducted in all Federal Districts of Russia, from 2013 to 2016. The analysis of consumption by the population of various widely consumed beverages, including different types of tea, low-calorie and dietary carbonated soft drinks and waters from various sources, was conducted and an analysis of the possible correlation between their frequency of consumption and body mass index (BMI) was carried out. It has been established that practically in all groups questioned about 10-15% of persons of various Federal districts and ages consume tap water. At the same time, the number of people consuming filtered, bottled water has significantly increased. In all age groups, except for a group of people aged 12-17 years, the consumption of tea by female obese women was 10-13% less than in the male group, and almost all groups with normal BMI consumed tea more often, than men. At the same time, there were no gender differences in the consumption of tea by individuals with a BMI of 25-30. There was no correlation between consumption of low-calorie, dietary carbonated soft drinks and BMI. Only in the group of people aged 31-45 years, gender differences were found, while in this group of people it was shown that obese men were about 3 times more likely than women to use these drinks (67.7 vs 25.0%).

АКТУАЛЬНОСТЬ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ОПРОСНИКОВ ДЛЯ ВРАЧЕЙ И ПАЦИЕНТОВ С ХРОНИЧЕСКОЙ ОБСТРУКТИВНОЙ БОЛЕЗНЬЮ ЛЕГКИХ С ЦЕЛЬЮ РАННЕГО ВЫЯВЛЕНИЯ ОБОСТРЕНИЙ (заключение совета экспертов Приволжского, Центрального и Южного федеральных округов России)

АКТУАЛЬНОСТЬ ПРИМЕНЕНИЯ ОПРОСНИКОВ ДЛЯ ВРАЧЕЙ И ПАЦИЕНТОВ С ХРОНИЧЕСКОЙ ОБСТРУКТИВНОЙ БОЛЕЗНЬЮ ЛЕГКИХ С ЦЕЛЬЮ РАННЕГО ВЫЯВЛЕНИЯ ОБОСТРЕНИЙ (заключение совета экспертов Приволжского, Центрального и Южного федеральных округов России)

Long-Term Trends of Air Temperature Changes in Industrial and Economic Centres of North-Western and Central Federal Districts of Russia and Their Causes

Carried out the review and analysis of long-term variability of mean annual and mean during winter temperature in 13 major administrative and industrial centers of the North-West and Central federal district – Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Petrozavodsk, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Novgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Smolensk, Tambov, Kostroma, Kursk and Voronezh. On the basis of the method of cluster analysis identified the major regional characteristics variability in air temperature. An assessment of the correlation between the dynamics of the 4 values of climatic indices of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic – NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and long-term changes in air temperature. Identified and analyzed interannual trends cooling trend over the winter period. Presented a preliminary assessment of the intensity of the impact of changes in temperature conditions on industry and the economy of the North-West and central federal districts in relation to a possible cooling.

Electoral Choices and Basic Values of Russians

This research assesses which values were related to the voting results of the Russian presidential election in March 2012. This empirical study was based on the results of a representative poll conducted in two federal districts of Russia (N=2058), which was held shortly after the elections. Participants were given Schwartz’s values questionnaire and were asked which of the five Russian presidency candidates they voted for. Empirical analysis showed that the respondents’ values were related to their political preferences. The study showed that the conservation–openness to change values were related to participants’ voting choices. The conservation values were related to four of the five candidates, which suggest an absence of key differences in the values represented by these politicians.

АДАПТАЦИЯ СТУДЕНТОВ-ПЕРВОКУРСНИКОВ К УСЛОВИЯМ ОБУЧЕНИЯ В УНИВЕРСИТЕТЕ: ОПЫТ, ПРОБЛЕМЫ, ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

<p>The article is devoted to the problem of adaptation of first-year students to the conditions for mastering educational programs at the university. It is based on the results of monitoring of students of Russian higher educational institutions within the framework of the research "Change in Composition and Life Priorities of Students of Higher Educational Institutions and Their Social Stability ", executed by the Penza State University of Architecture and Construction. More than 400 students from 13 state universities in 5 federal districts of Russia took part in the monitoring.</p><p>The article features the results of monitoring of Russian students concerning their readiness for higher educational institutions. The results of the monitoring showed that the problem of adaptation of first-year students is a major issue, which still remains a subject for discussions while being the foundation of education in junior courses. The paper defines the concept of adaptation, presents the types and functions of the student's social adaptation and summarizes the conclusions of the study. Some proposals to improve the adaptation of first-year students have been developed and implemented.</p>

Взаимосвязь базовых человеческих ценностей и электорального поведения

The present study is aimed at investigating the relations between the basic individual values of Russians and their political behavior, which based on electoral behavior and electoral attitudes. In our study we use a method based on the theory of basic human values in order to understand by which universal human values Russians are guided and driven when choosing a particular candidate for the presidency of the Russian Federation. An empirical study based on the results of a representative survey in two Federal districts of Russia, held shortly after the elections. The empirical analysis showed basic values of respondents are related to their political preferences. The study showed that, firstly, the main opposition of values associated with the results of the election, is "conservation" — "openness to change". Secondly, voting for most candidates is associated with the values of "conservation", which indicates the absence of significant differences in the values transmitted by Russian policies. This paper considers which of the values are prompted the electorate to vote for each of the candidates (Putin, Zuganov, Prokhorov, Zhirinovsy, and Mironov). The article was prepared within the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research Univer- sity Higher School of Economics (HSE) and supported within the framework of a subsidy granted to the HSE by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of the Global Competitiveness Program.

Дальневосточный регион в демографическом пространстве России: пореформенный тренд

The article examined the dynamics of demographical and migration processes in the Russian Far East during reform in 1991–2016. The factors of changes in population in the region are analyzed. The emphasis is made on the natural reproduction, the ratio of birth and death. During 1926–1991 the population increased 5.1 times, while during 1991–2017 it decreased 23.2%. The migration flows: intraregional, migration cooperation with Russian federal districts and external migration to CIS and other countries, are analyzed. The migration flows are mainly directed at the Central, North-Western and Southern Federal Districts. The data cited show stable negative trend in the region: the decrease in population due to migration outflow. Far East is not competitive against other federal districts based on the level of socio-economic parameters that are the main factor in migration behavior of population. The conclusion is that the trends established during the 25 years make it problematic to achieve the strategic goal of socio-economic development of the region – stabilizing the population on the level of 6.2–6.3 mil people by 2020

Competitive authoritarian regime: tactics of opposition actors

Varieties of modern nondemocratic electoral political regimes is determined by institutional, structural, actor-oriented (procedural) differences between «the new autocracies». The trajectories of political transformation and regime changes in these hybrids depend largely on the specifi c political decisions and actions of key political actors in the process of democratization. This article analyzes the actions of the opposition from the angle of mobilization and cooperation as «winning» tactics in the electoral competitive nondemocratic regimes. The empirical part of the article includes: 1) forming a public protests database in the electoral cycle of 2015 (January-September) in the Central Federal District of Russia, which includes the regional authority elections, members of regional and local legislatures; 2) statistical processing of data of opposition’s participation / nonparticipation in public protests, number of protesters, opposition cooperative actions, issues of protests; 3) designing and measuring empirically observable features of protests make it possible to segment the public protest activity into 2 basic parts: civic activity and mobilization activity – and then to analyze the scope of cooperation of various opposition parties in mobilization actions. These results make it possible to answer the following questions: to what extent Russian opposition actors use public protest activity as mobilization resource and to what extent they are prepared for cooperation in a public protest fi eld?

Cities of North-West Federal District: the state of urban development sector and its main challenges

This article analyzes the compliance of planned and actual results of the implementation of the first phase of territorial planning documents of towns, medium and big cities in the North-West Federal District of Russia. Particular attention is paid to the deformation of forecasting scenario for prospective population in researched cities and to identification of factors that contributed to this deformation. The authors propose a variant of preparation of territorial planning documents in a search for effective tools for urban development of the North-West Federal District of Russia.

Особенности размещения и роста городов Южного федерального округа России

Особенности размещения и роста городов Южного федерального округа России

Exoskeleton anomalies in taiga tick females from populations of the Asian part of Russia

Geographic variation of exoskeleton anomalies in females of the taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus Schulze, 1930 is described in populations of the Asian part of Russia. The total material examined comprised 3872 females collected by the flagging method from vegetation in the Far Eastern, Siberian, and Ural Federal Districts of Russia. Exoskeleton anomalies were found in all the populations studied, the “shagreen skin” anomaly of the scutum being prevalent in all the localities. Anomalies were significantly more frequent (63.4 ± 3.39%) in females collected north of 55°N than in those collected in more southern localities of the Siberian Federal District (33.1 ± 3.43%). At the same time, the frequency of anomalies was lower (24.4 ± 1.93%) in females from the Far Eastern Federal District than in specimens from territories with an extreme continental climate. The variation in the females’ exoskeleton structure observed in the Asian part of Russia may reflect the natural phenogeographic variability rather than result from anthropogenic impact.

Phosphorus within planetary boundaries

ABSTRACTIn this paper the screening calculations of the removal time of phosphorus from water bodies of federal districts of Russia are presented. Calculations are made using the matrix algebra based approach and are applied as a tool for the estimation of the fate of phosphates in different environmental media (water, air, soil, biota, etc.). The results show that the use of phosphate fertilizers is sometimes quite high in the most vulnerable federal districts. It means that the application of fertilizers in order to increase the yield of agriproducts should be accompanied by detailed assessment of the risks of eutrophication. Calculations have shown high vulnerability in the district of the Lake Baika.

RUSSIA'S RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION AND CHINA: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MUTUAL PERCEPTION IN THE BORDER REGIONS

Occurred nearly a quarter of a century ago, the collapse of the Soviet Union - an event that led to the formation of a new configuration of the world-system. In this global role, the national significance of this event for Russia that she has to find their place in the world that actualizes a scientific discussion on this topic. Without public clarification and comparison of the ideological differences and disagreements it is difficult to imagine the development of a democratic society. Moreover, it is impossible to do without a debate in the society, standing in the darkness. Russia again, as in the beginning 1990-h years is in a situation of historical bifurcation. Russia to go their own way or try to rebuild themselves in the experience of the successful modernization of the States of the European, Asian, South American or African. They have used the Western (European) experience, without losing their national identity. Inherent in our ethnic consciousness and the inclination to extremes, Russian intellectuals keen on totally unproductive debates, like the endless, which is between "Westerners" and "Slavophil's" (in the current language - "fundamentalists"). The notorious dichotomy becomes more and more absurd, Recalling the disputes of "points" and "dull bits" from the famous novel of Jonathan Swift. The country is a completely different choice - effectiveness and development or the inefficiency and backwardness, modernization or preservation of its political and economic model, developed by reformers in 1990-ies. Today, therefore, Russia should not deifying the West, than succeeded ones and not the deification of exclusivity, what more you want to succeed others, but strong awareness of the reality and the pursuit of maximum expediency, pragmatism in the development of the achievements of Western civilization. If Asian countries are to successfully adopt the European (Western) modernization experience, then Russia as a European country should be more favorable conditions. In line with what is happening in the country discussions on ways of socio-economic development of Russia and its role and place in the emerging new global configuration, interactions with neighbors, primarily with the European Union and China in the context of the prospects of replacing the existing economic model and the upcoming modernization. Need to know life plans, orientation and attitudes of the Russian youth, its ideas about the place of Russia in a changing world. how it links its future with the future of their country. In the upcoming modernization, the main burden of its implementation will fall on the current young generation of Russians. In this regard, the article analyzes survey results of University students in six Federal districts of Russia.

О стратегии социально-экономического развития регионов (на примере Центрального Федерального округа)

The article proves the importance of the strategic approach to the management of the economy of the region; a comparative analysis of the strategy objectives and priorities of socio-economic development of the regions of the Central Federal District of Russia is presented; it is concluded that competitiveness of the regions and of Russia as a whole depends on their ability to implement the strategy of their social and economic development.