Ronne Ice Shelf Research Articles

How iceberg calving and grounding change the circulation and hydrography in the Filchner Ice Shelf‐Ocean System

The formation of bottom water in the southern Weddell Sea is strongly influenced by the flow of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) out of the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf cavity. The breakout of three giant icebergs in 1986 and their grounding on the shallow Berkner Bank modified the circulation and water mass formation in the Filchner Trough and the adjacent sea areas. Hydrographic measurements along the Filchner Ice Shelf front, carried out with RV Polarstern in 1995, show significant changes in the water mass characteristics and flow patterns in the Filchner Trough in comparison to measurements from the early 1980s. Changes in the trough will affect the flow over the sill to the deep Weddell Abyssal Plain. We combine a three‐dimensional ocean circulation model with conductivity‐temperature‐depth and stable isotope measurements to investigate the details of the circulation in front of and beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf. We assess the impact of stranded icebergs and a more southerly ice shelf front position caused by a 1986 iceberg calving event on the circulation and observed water mass properties. Results indicate variations of the flow pattern in the Filchner Trough and on Berkner Bank, where High‐Salinity Shelf Water, the feedstock for ISW, is produced. The calving and grounding impacts illustrate the sensitivity of the ice shelf‐ocean system to perturbations in local bathymetric settings.

Current measurements near Ronne Ice Shelf: Implications for circulation and melting

We present the first year‐long current meter records ever obtained near the floating Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea. The currents are steered along the ice front, but in the lower layer where the bottom topography is descending toward the west the current has a component toward the ice front of about 3 cm s−1. During winter the temperature stayed near the surface freezing point, while the salinity increased, indicating that ice was formed and brine released. The seasonal variation in salinity was 0.15±0.05 psu, corresponding to the formation of 1–2 m of ice on a shelf depth of 400 m. The transport of High‐Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) into the ice shelf cavity was found to be of the order 0.5×106 m3 s−1. The production of this water due to oscillating tides and off shelf winds was found to be of the same order of magnitude. In contact with glacial ice at great depths, and because of the depression of the freezing point, the HSSW is transformed to Ice Shelf Water (ISW) by cooling and melting processes. The melting rate was estimated to 1×1011 ton yr−1. This corresponds to the melting of 0.2 m ice per year if the melting is evenly distributed over the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf. If the melting is concentrated along a path from the Berkner Shelf around the Berkner Island to the Filchner Depression, then melting rates up to 7 m yr−1 must be expected. A comparison of HSSW characteristics in the Ronne Depression, our winter observations on the Berkner Shelf, and the ISW flowing out of the Filchner Depression indicates that very little water passes through the cavity from the Ronne to the Filchner Depression. It appears that most of the ISW originating from processes on the Berkner Shelf escapes the cavity in the Filchner Depression. This leaves the Berkner Shelf as the important source of ISW and subsequently of the Weddell Sea Bottom Water formed from ISW.

Oxygen and carbon stable isotope tracers of Weddell Sea water masses: new data and some paleoceanographic implications

Stable oxygen isotopic composition of sea water and stable carbon isotopes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the continental shelf in the southern Weddell Sea are presented. Using the stations sampled during the summer 1995 two sections can be constructed, one closely parallel to the ice shelf edge and the other perpendicular to the upper continental slope. Generally, δ 18O values clearly separate between different shelf water masses depending on the content of meteoric meltwater added during melting of glacial ice. Extrapolation of the mixing line between the cores of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) and supercooled Ice Shelf Water (ISW) reveals δ 18O values of the glacial ice of −27‰, whereas extrapolation of the mixing line between the δ 18O values of the most-saline HSSW and lowest temperature ISW results in δ 18O values of −34‰ for glacial ice. These values point to an origin of meltwater from below the ice shelf, where ice is less depleted in 18O, since deep beneath the ice shelf close to the grounding line, values may reach −40‰. If values between −34 and −27‰ are used as δ 18O end member values for glacial ice, the amount of meltwater from the ice shelf that adds to the formation of ISW off the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf ranges from 0.2 to 0.8%, in agreement with previous studies based on δ 18O and 4He. Carbon isotopic fractionation due to gas exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean at cold temperatures results in Δ δ 13C DIC values of 0.20±0.17‰ for Weddell Sea Deep Water, the water mass that ventilates the global abyssal ocean, typically defined as Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). This confirms the low end of the range estimated previously (0.2–0.4‰), and thus corroborates the dominance of biology in shaping the deep and bottom water δ 13C signal. It has been hypothesized that different modes of glacial/interglacial Antarctic bottom water formation may be separated by different stable isotopic compositions of deep-sea foraminiferal calcite. Here I show that differences between Δ δ 13C and δ 18O values of HSSW and ISW, both of which contribute to bottom water formation today, are too small to be resolved in deep and bottom water masses. Therefore, glacial/interglacial changes in relative proportions of these water masses in Antarctic deep and bottom water cannot be separated by stable isotopes of fossil benthic foraminiferal calcite.

The Ronne polynya of 1997/98: observations of air-ice-ocean interaction

AbstractThe Ronne polynya formed in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, during the period November 1997−February 1998 to an extent not seen previously in the 25 years of all-weather satellite observations. The vessel HMS Endurance traversed the polynya region and took sea-ice, physical oceanographic and meteorological measurements during January and early February 1998. These observations, together with satellite imagery and weather records, were analyzed to determine the causes of the anomalous condition observed and to provide comparisons for numerical modeling experiments. The polynya area, analyzed from satellite imagery, showed a linear, nearly constant, increase with time from mid-November 1997 through February 1998. It had a maximum open-water area of 3 × 105 km2 and extended 500 km north of the Ronne Ice Shelf (at 76° S) to 70° S. The ice and snow structure of floes at the northern edge of the polynya showed the ice there had formed in the previous mid- to late winter (October 1997 or earlier) and had been advected there either from the eastern Weddell Sea or from the front of the Ronne Ice Shelf. Analyses of the wind fields showed anomalous spring-summer wind fields in the polynya year, with a strong southerly to southwesterly component compared to the mean easterly winds typical of summer conditions. These southerly wind conditions, in both magnitude and direction, therefore account for the drift of ice northward. The predominant summer easterly winds usually fill the southern Weddell Sea with ice from the east, and the high-albedo surfaces reflect the solar radiation, preventing warming of the surface ocean waters and consequent sea-ice melt. Instead, high incident solar radiation from November 1997 to February 1998 was absorbed by the open water, rather than being reflected, thereby both melting ice and preventing ice formation, and thereby sustaining the polynya. We conclude that open-water-albedo feedback is necessary to allow the observed polynya formation, since similar drift conditions prevail in winter (arising from southerly winds also) and usually result in extensive new ice formation in front of the Ronne Ice Shelf. The strong southerly winds therefore have quite opposing seasonal effects, leading to high ice production in winter as usually found, and extensive open water if they occur in spring and summer, as seen in this atypical event in 1997/98. In this case, the atypical southerly winds may be associated with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced atmospheric circulation pattern.

Models of Radar Absorption in Europan Ice

The detection of a sub-surface present-day ocean on Europa is of considerable interest. One possible method of detecting an ocean is by an orbiting radar sounder. The effects of a range of possible Europan ice chemistries on radar attenuation are investigated, using plausible Europa ice temperature profiles. Ice chemistries are derived from geochemical models of Europa predicting a sulfate-dominated ocean, a chloride-dominated ocean scaled from the Earth, and on experimental data on marine ice formed beneath ice shelves on Earth, on low-salinity sea ice and models of rock and ice mixtures. Chloride ions are expected to dominate the radar absorption because they are incorporated into the ice lattice, though if freezing rates are rapid or similar to sea ice, then brine pockets will dominate losses. In the case of an ocean being present underneath the ice, the range of attenuation found in the models is from about 5 dB/km for rock/ice mixtures up to 80 dB/km for sea ice models. However, perhaps the best model at present is for ice formed from a plausible sulfate-dominated ocean with the fraction of chloride incorporated into the ice set to the same as for low accretion rate Ronne Ice Shelf marine ice. This has a radar absorption of 9–16 dB/km for surface temperatures of 50–100 K. In the case of a convecting isothermal ice layer beneath a conducting ice lid, absorption in the conducting lid is lower for all the models than it is over an ocean as the convecting ice is modeled to be 250–260 K. Absorption in the isothermal layers is very high, but the interface between conducting and convecting ice may be marked by a reflection coefficient that enables it to be imaged. It is concluded that realistic ice-penetrating radars are likely to be able to penetrate some kilometers into the ice, though problems of interpretation caused by scattering are not considered here.

Observation of ocean tides below the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves, Antarctica, using synthetic aperture radar interferometry: Comparison with tide model predictions

Tides near and under floating glacial ice, such as ice shelves and glacier termini in fjords, can influence heat transport into the subice cavity, mixing of the under‐ice water column, and the calving and subsequent drift of icebergs. Free‐surface displacement patterns associated with ocean variability below glacial ice can be observed by differencing two synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms, each of which represents the combination of the displacement patterns associated with the time‐varying vertical motion and the time‐independent lateral ice flow. We present the pattern of net free‐surface displacement for the iceberg calving regions of the Ronne and Filchner Ice Shelves in the southern Weddell Sea. By comparing SAR‐based displacement fields with ocean tidal models, the free‐surface displacement variability for these regions is found to be dominated by ocean tides. The inverse barometer effect, i.e., the ocean's isostatic response to changing atmospheric pressure, also contributes to the observed vertical displacement. The principal value of using SAR interferometry in this manner lies in the very high lateral resolution (tens of meters) obtained over the large region covered by each SAR image. Small features that are not well resolved by the typical grid spacing of ocean tidal models may contribute to such processes as iceberg calving and cross‐frontal ventilation of the ocean cavity under the ice shelf.

Balance velocities and measured properties of the Antarctic ice sheet from a new compilation of gridded data for modelling

AbstractThis paper presents a new compilation of gridded datasets for three-dimensional modelling of the Antarctic ice sheet. These are for surface elevation, ice thickness, bedrock elevation and accumulation rate as interpolated on a 281 × 281 mesh with 20 km spacing, and encompass all the ice sheet and surrounding continental shelf. Data sources include the Bamber digital-elevation model from ERS-1 radar-altimeter data, a redigitization of available ice-thickness data, the Giovinetto accumulation data, recent ice-thickness data from British and German expeditions as well as accumulation data from German and Norwegian expeditions. In particular, new data were incorporated for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and for Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, arising from the EPICA pre-site survey. Special attention was devoted to matching the various data sources carefully, both among themselves and across the grounding line and below the ice shelves, to enable ice-sheet expansion and retreat in dynamic situations. As an application, the balance flow is calculated over the entire ice sheet using a two-dimensional finite-difference scheme and compared with a previous assessment. This brought to light the existence of ice-streaming features extending well inland. A detailed zoom over Dronning Maud Land exhibits the general flow characteristics of interest for locating a future deep-drilling site. As a by-product, an updated value of 26.4 × 106km3 was obtained for the total volume of the ice sheet and ice shelves, or equivalent to 61.1 m of global sea-level rise after removal of the ice sheet and subsequent oceanic invasion and isostatic rebound. The total accumulation over the grounded ice sheet, including the Antarctic Peninsula, is 1924 Gta−1, or between 5 and 20% higher than earlier estimates. Including all the ice shelves, the value is 2344 Gt a−1.

Ocean circulation beneath Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf from three‐dimensional model results

A high‐resolution three‐dimensional ocean circulation model is applied to the cavity beneath Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS). The model predicts predominantly barotropic currents which form a series of cyclonic gyres in the deep basins and anticyclonic circulations around the islands. The surface circulation can be such that the water moves in the direction of decreasing or increasing ice thicknesses, in the former case leading to freezing, while melting at the ice shelf base results in the latter case. The pattern of melting and freezing is consistent with known distributions of marine ice and melting areas beneath FRIS. An anticyclonic circulation around the Korff and Henry Ice Rises with melting west of Korff Ice Rise and freezing on the eastern side and north of Henry Ice Rise is the main source for an ice‐pumping mechanism that produces the observed large marine ice body in the central Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf. The estimates for net melting for realistic conditions at the open ocean boundary are 40–50 km3 yr−1, indicating that ice shelf‐ocean interaction is an important contribution to the mass balance of the ice shelf.

Innocents on the ice: a memoir of Antarctic exploration, 1957

Innocents on the Ice is based on the author's experience and writings as part of a U.S. Navy-supported expedition to establish Ellsworth Station on the Filchner Ice Shelf. This expedition, undertaken from November 1956 to early 1958, coincided with the International Geophysical Year (1957-1958)which initiated the scientific age in Antarctica. Behrendt describes the stress of experiencing the dark Antarctic winter of 1957, during which intense personal conflicts arose at the most isolated of the seven U.S. Antarctic stations. The tension was unrelieved by contact with the outside world, since there was no mail for the 9 civilians and 30 Navy men living beneath the snow and only occasional radio contact was made with families for a year. The author also describes his explorations with four others of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf system during the following summers of 1957-1958. Along the hazardous 1300-mile oversnow traverse in two Sno-Cats, the field party measured ice thickness and snow accumulation as part of an international effort to determine the balance of the Antarctic ice sheet, and they also made the first geological observations of the spectacular Dufek Massif in the then unexplored Pensacola Mountains. Finally, Behrendt draws upon his 40 years of continual participation in Antarctic research to explain the changes in activities and environmental awareness in Antarctica today.

Investigations of the mass balance of the southeastern Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica

AbstractData from the Filchner V Campaign were used to investigate the mass-balance conditions in the southeastern Ronne Ice Shelf (RIS), Antarctica. Radio-echo sounding and seismic measurements over this area show a maximum ice thickness of >2000 m close to the grounding line of Foundation Ice Stream. The measurements also revealed that the position of this grounding line is 40 km further south than previously thought. New mass-flux calculations result in an estimate of 51 km3 a−1 for the ice-stream transport from the ice sheet into the eastern ice shelf. The Mollereisstrom (MES), west of Foundation Ice Stream, shows a maximum ice thickness of 1100-1200 m in the grounding-line area and a mass flux of 23 km3 a−1.Assuming steady-state conditions, mass-balance calculations based on the new data result in a mean melt rate of about 1 ma−1 at the ice-shelf base for the entire southeastern part of the RIS. The melt rate in the grounding-line area of Foundation Ice Stream exceeds 9 m a−1. In contrast, other ice streams draining into the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show maximum melt rates from 1-2 ma-1. (MES) to 4 ma−1 (Rutford Ice Stream). Our calculations indicate that nearly all of the ice deposited in the drainage area of the eastern RIS on the ice sheet does not reach the ice-shelf front as original meteoric ice, but is melted at the ice-shelf base.

Density log of a 181 m long ice core from Berkner Island, Antarctica

AbstractA 181 m long ice core was drilled at 79°36’51"S, 45°43’28" W, near the summit of Berkner Island, Antarctica (886 m a.s.L). Berkner Island is located between the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves, and the ice near the summit shows little lateral flow. The density of the ice core was measured every 3 mm along its length, using attenuation of a gamma-ray beam, which gave an absolute accuracy of 2%. As expected, there is a general density increase with depth, the maximum densities of > 900 kg m−3 being reached just above 100 m depth. Comparison with the electrical conductivity method (ECM) shows density variations with the same wavelength as the annual signals, which can be seen in the ECM log (higher acidity during summer). In the shallowest part of the core, the density of winter layers is higher than that of summer layers, a relationship which is reversed at greater depth. We assume that the densification rates for the two types of firn are different. Similar density phenomena were observed on ice cores from Greenland, showing that such phenomena are not a local effect.

Surface accumulation on Foundation Ice Stream, Antarctica

AbstractThis paper presents new data, derived from an analysis of 16 firn cores, on the distribution of the accumulation rate and 18O content of near-surface layers in the eastern part of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The firn cores were drilled along the traverse route of the Filchner-V-Campaign in 1995. The traverse followed an ice flowline of the Foundation Ice Stream and reached the margin of the inland ice, an area which has not yet been investigated. On the ice shelf the accumulation rates decrease with distance from the coast. Ascending to the inland ice the accumulation rates again reach almost coastal values. This regional distribution is in agreement with the temperature gradient along the traverse. The 18 content of the near-surface layers is closely related to the 10 m firn temperature. They strongly decrease from the grounding line towards the inland ice. At the southernmost site at 1100 ma.s.l, the mean δ18O value of the firn decreases to –40‰. Ice with that isotopic signature was found in cores from the central part of the Ronne Ice Shelf just above the marine ice layer, indicating that it originates from this area. All ice deposited as snow further south was melted beneath the ice shelf after passing the grounding-line area. The time series of accumulation rate and 18O content reveal no climatic trend during the last 30-50 years.

IMAGES: Eye on the Planet

The fate of a swath of Brazilian rainforest is ominously depicted in these images showing the spread of roads and adjacent logging between 1975 and 1992 in Rondônia. This and other environmental stories are told in Earthshots, a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) site featuring articles based on images from the Landsat satellites first launched in 1972 (www.usgs.gov/Earthshots). Landsat has documented, for example, the abandonment of farmland near Chernobyl, Antarctica's Filchner Ice Shelf calving off three huge icebergs, the eruption of Mount St. Helens, and Cambodia's attempts to stem monsoon floods with canals. Earthshots' goal, says USGS's Bruce Quirk, is to demonstrate “what's happening on the face of the Earth over time and how important it is to monitor our environment.”

Trajectories in the Antarctic lower troposphere

The statistics of air mass transport to the Neumayer Antarctic station (8°22′W, 70°7′S) are derived from three‐dimensional 5‐day backward trajectories on the basis of a numerical weather prediction model, the Global Model of the German Weather Service, for the period April 1993 to March 1996. Trajectory errors are discussed in detail and errors of individual trajectories may sum up to from a few hundred to more than a thousand kilometers during 5 days' traveling time despite the high quality of the Global Model and trajectory module described. The most frequent easterly flow at Neumayer consists of advection from oceanic and continental regions. During southeasterly flow, mean trajectories document oceanic air passing coastal continental regions during the 3 days preceding arrival. Air arriving from above the Antarctic continent south of 75°S usually descends over the marginal plateau and especially over the slope region. Advection from the central plateau regions poleward of 80°S is rare. Marine trajectories from latitudes north of 60°S mostly start in 0 – 3 km height. The modeled transport for the arrival levels at 950 hPa and 850 hPa at Neumayer station document that the frequency of oceanic source regions increases with height. Trajectories for 15 other coastal destinations show that near‐surface easterly winds with a downslope component dominate along the eastern shore of the Weddell Sea. The prevailing transport from the south at the Filchner Ronne ice shelf arises from deflected barrier winds along the Transantarctic Mountains. At the northern tip of the peninsula, westerly winds prevail, and the air usually originates from the Bellingshausen Sea. The probability of contact with air masses from ice‐free continents is small for all coastal sites.

Circulation beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and its sensitivity to changes in the oceanic environment: a case-study

We investigate the sensitivity of the ocean circulation in the Filchner Trough to changes in the large-scale oceanic environment and its impact on the mass balance of the Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Three experiments with a three-dimensional ocean model describe (i) the current situation, (ii) a scenario with increased ocean temperatures, and (iii) a scenario with reduced sea-ice formation rates on the adjacent continental shelf. in the final discussion brief results of a combined scenario with increased ocean temperatures and reduced sea-ice formation are presented. The changes from the current situation affect the circulation in the Filchner Trough, and melting and freezing processes beneath the ice shelf. The latter affect the amount and properties of Ice Shelf Water (ISW), a component of Antarctic Bottom Water. Net basal melt rates provide an overall measure for the changes: while the control run yields 0.35 m a−1 net melting averaged over the Filchner Ice Shelf area, the warming scenario results in a more than twofold increase in ice-shelf mass loss. Reduced production of High Salinity ShelfWater due to smaller sea-ice formation rates in the second scenario leads, on the other hand, to a decrease in basal mass loss, because the deep cavity is less well ventilated than in the control run. ISW is cooled and the ice shelf is stabilized under this scenario, which is arguably the more likely development in the southern Weddell Sea.

Ice-shelf dynamics near the front of the Filchner—Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, revealed by SAR interferometry

AbstractFifteen synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the Ronne Ice Shelf (also referred to as the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf), Antarctica, obtained by the European remote-sensing satellites ERS-1 and -2, are used to study ice-shelf dynamics near two ends of the iceberg-calving front. Interferograms constructed from these SAR images are used to resolve the ice-shelf displacement along several directions in response to both ocean tide and long-term creep flow. Tidal motion is separated from creep flow using differential interferometry, i.e. two or more interferograms in which fringe patterns common to all are predominantly associated with creep flow. Creep-flow velocities thus determined compare well with prior ice-shelf velocity surveys. Using these data, we studied the influence of large-scale rifts, ice rises and coastal separation on the ice-shelf flow. Many of the large rifts that appear to form the boundaries where tabular icebergs may eventually detach from the ice shelf are filled with a melange of sea ice, ice-shelf debris and wind-blown snow. The interferograms show that this melange tends to deform coherently in response to the ice-shelf flow and has sufficient strength to trap large tabular ice-shelf fragments for several decades before the fragments eventually become icebergs. In many instances, the motion of the tabular fragments is a rigid-body rotation about a vertical axis that is driven by velocity shear within the melange. Tfhe mechanical role of the rift-filling melange may be to bind tabular ice-shelf fragments to the main ice shelf before they calve. This suggests two possible mechanisms by which climate could influence tabular iceberg calving. First, spatial gradients in oceanic and atmospheric temperature may determine where the melange melts and, thus, the location of the iceberg-caking margin. Second, melting or weakening of ice melange as a consequence of climate change could trigger a sudden or widespread release of tabular icebergs and lead to rapid ice-shelf disintegration.

Ice-shelf dynamics near the front of the Filchner—Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, revealed by SAR interferometry

AbstractFifteen synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the Ronne Ice Shelf (also referred to as the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf), Antarctica, obtained by the European remote-sensing satellites ERS-1 and -2, are used to study ice-shelf dynamics near two ends of the iceberg-calving front. Interferograms constructed from these SAR images are used to resolve the ice-shelf displacement along several directions in response to both ocean tide and long-term creep flow. Tidal motion is separated from creep flow using differential interferometry, i.e. two or more interferograms in which fringe patterns common to all are predominantly associated with creep flow. Creep-flow velocities thus determined compare well with prior ice-shelf velocity surveys. Using these data, we studied the influence of large-scale rifts, ice rises and coastal separation on the ice-shelf flow. Many of the large rifts that appear to form the boundaries where tabular icebergs may eventually detach from the ice shelf are filled with a melange of sea ice, ice-shelf debris and wind-blown snow. The interferograms show that this melange tends to deform coherently in response to the ice-shelf flow and has sufficient strength to trap large tabular ice-shelf fragments for several decades before the fragments eventually become icebergs. In many instances, the motion of the tabular fragments is a rigid-body rotation about a vertical axis that is driven by velocity shear within the melange. Tfhe mechanical role of the rift-filling melange may be to bind tabular ice-shelf fragments to the main ice shelf before they calve. This suggests two possible mechanisms by which climate could influence tabular iceberg calving. First, spatial gradients in oceanic and atmospheric temperature may determine where the melange melts and, thus, the location of the iceberg-caking margin. Second, melting or weakening of ice melange as a consequence of climate change could trigger a sudden or widespread release of tabular icebergs and lead to rapid ice-shelf disintegration.

Rapid sea-level rise from a West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse: a short-term perspective

AbstractWill worldwide sea level soon rise rapidly because of a shrinkage of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS)? Here I give a personal perspective of that probability. The crucial question is not whether large changes in ice mass can occur, but how likely it is that a large, rapid change, say a several-fold increase in the 20th-century rate of about 2 mm a-1, will occur in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause.Twenty years ago Weertman proposed that a marine ice sheet is inherently unstable. But Weertman’s analysis was based on a simple model of a marine ice sheet that did not include fast-flowing, wet-based ice streams, which are now known to dominate the grounded ice sheet. Modern analyses do not definitively determine just how ice streams affect the stability of the WAIS, but it can at least be said that there is no compelling theoretical reason to expect a rapid rise in sea level from the WAIS triggered by ice-shelf thinning.Of the three main ice-drainage systems in the WAIS, the one that flows into Pine Island Bay might be a particularly likely site for accelerated flow since there is no ice shelf to restrain the inflowing ice streams, yet measurements show that this system is not significantly out of mass balance. If the “Ross Embayment” system, which has undergone several sudden glacial reorganizations in the last thousand years, were unstable one might expect a history of large changes in the total outflow of ice into the Ross Ice Shelf, yet the total outflow in the “Ross Embayment” has remained relatively unchanged despite the large internal perturbations, a fact that, points to a stable, not an unstable, system. Study of the third major drainage from the WAIS, into the Ronne Ice Shelf, also suggests that there is no gross discordance between the present velocity vectors and flow tracers in the ice shelf, although the evidence is limited.In the light of the evidence for recent stability, it is difficult to see how climate warming (whether anthropogenic or natural) could trigger a collapse of the WAIS in the next century or two. Thus, I believe that a rapid rise in sea level in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause could only occur if a natural (not induced) collapse of the WAIS were imminent. Based on a concept of pseudo-random collapse once per major glacial cycle, I estimate the chances of that to be on the order of one in a thousand.

Understanding Antarctic Peninsula precipitation distribution and variability using a numerical weather prediction model

Daily precipitation fields and annual means from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts re-analysis exercise are used to examine the distribution and variability of precipitation across the Antarctic Peninsula. The annual mean precipitation field from the model agrees well with the available ice-core data and suggests that the maximum accumulation for the area is on the western side of the barrier at about the 200 m level where the annual total is close to 1.3 m w.e. The Peninsula is shown to be a very effective barrier to the zonal movement of precipitating weather systems, which results in quite different atmospheric flow regimes being responsible for significant precipitation events on other side of the divide. Frontal depressions are the primary source of large daily snowfall totals on both sides of the Peninsula. On the southern coast of the Bellingshausen Sea, major snowfall events are often linked to strong northerly flow when the atmospheric circulation is blocked. Predominantly northerly flow is also responsible for significant snowfall on the Ronne Ice Shelf, which often occurs in association with lee cyclogenesis events to the east of the- Peninsula.

Rapid sea-level rise from a West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse: a short-term perspective

Abstract Will worldwide sea level soon rise rapidly because of a shrinkage of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS)? Here I give a personal perspective of that probability. The crucial question is not whether large changes in ice mass can occur, but how likely it is that a large, rapid change, say a several-fold increase in the 20th-century rate of about 2 mm a-1, will occur in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause. Twenty years ago Weertman proposed that a marine ice sheet is inherently unstable. But Weertman’s analysis was based on a simple model of a marine ice sheet that did not include fast-flowing, wet-based ice streams, which are now known to dominate the grounded ice sheet. Modern analyses do not definitively determine just how ice streams affect the stability of the WAIS, but it can at least be said that there is no compelling theoretical reason to expect a rapid rise in sea level from the WAIS triggered by ice-shelf thinning. Of the three main ice-drainage systems in the WAIS, the one that flows into Pine Island Bay might be a particularly likely site for accelerated flow since there is no ice shelf to restrain the inflowing ice streams, yet measurements show that this system is not significantly out of mass balance. If the “Ross Embayment” system, which has undergone several sudden glacial reorganizations in the last thousand years, were unstable one might expect a history of large changes in the total outflow of ice into the Ross Ice Shelf, yet the total outflow in the “Ross Embayment” has remained relatively unchanged despite the large internal perturbations, a fact that, points to a stable, not an unstable, system. Study of the third major drainage from the WAIS, into the Ronne Ice Shelf, also suggests that there is no gross discordance between the present velocity vectors and flow tracers in the ice shelf, although the evidence is limited. In the light of the evidence for recent stability, it is difficult to see how climate warming (whether anthropogenic or natural) could trigger a collapse of the WAIS in the next century or two. Thus, I believe that a rapid rise in sea level in the next century or two from a West Antarctic cause could only occur if a natural (not induced) collapse of the WAIS were imminent. Based on a concept of pseudo-random collapse once per major glacial cycle, I estimate the chances of that to be on the order of one in a thousand.