Risk Reduction Effect Research Articles

터널 방재설비의 합리적 설치를 위한 분석적 연구

ABSTRACT: Domestic road and railroad construction have been increasingly growing and for reasons of mitigating traffic congestion, urban plan and refurbishment project, deeper and longer tunnels have been built. The event of fire is the most fatal accident in a tunnel, and it can be very disastrous with a high possibility. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Analys is) which is one of quantitative risk analysis approaches was applied to tunnel fire safety design and the evaluation of QRA cases and the cost comparison of QRA methods were carried out. In addition analysis of risk reduction effect of tunnel fire safety system was conducted using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the priority of major factors that could mitigate the risk in tunnel fire was presented. As a result, significant cost reduction effect could be obtained by incorporating QRA and it is expected to design fire safety system rationally. The priority of fire safety system based on risk mitigation effect by fire safety system considering the cost is in order of water pipe, emergency lighting, evacuation passage and smoke control system.

Biomarkers of selenium status.

The essential trace element, selenium (Se), has multiple biological activities, which depend on the level of Se intake. Relatively low Se intakes determine the expression of selenoenzymes in which it serves as an essential constituent. Higher intakes have been shown to have anti-tumorigenic potential; and very high Se intakes can produce adverse effects. This hierarchy of biological activities calls for biomarkers informative at different levels of Se exposure. Some Se-biomarkers, such as the selenoproteins and particularly GPX3 and SEPP1, provide information about function directly and are of value in identifying nutritional Se deficiency and tracking responses of deficient individuals to Se-treatment. They are useful under conditions of Se intake within the range of regulated selenoprotein expression, e.g., for humans <55 μg/day and for animals <20 μg/kg diet. Other Se-biomarkers provide information indirectly through inferences based on Se levels of foods, tissues, urine or feces. They can indicate the likelihood of deficiency or adverse effects, but they do not provide direct evidence of either condition. Their value is in providing information about Se status over a wide range of Se intake, particularly from food forms. There is need for additional Se biomarkers particularly for assessing Se status in non-deficient individuals for whom the prospects of cancer risk reduction and adverse effects risk are the primary health considerations. This would include determining whether supranutritional intakes of Se may be required for maximal selenoprotein expression in immune surveillance cells. It would also include developing methods to determine low molecular weight Se-metabolites, i.e., selenoamino acids and methylated Se-metabolites, which to date have not been detectable in biological specimens. Recent analytical advances using tandem liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry suggest prospects for detecting these metabolites.

Does Inside Trading Affect Managers’ Decision-Making? A Theoretical Investigation

This paper analyzes how inside trading affects managers’ decision-making and also examines the effect of the social relations on managers. Through model analysis, the paper shows that inside trading does affect managers’ behavior. Inside trading lowers the managers’ minimum requirements for risky projects and thus has a risk-reduction effect on managers. In some cases, the existence of inside trading makes managers select projects with negative returns, which results in agency problems. When managers try to consolidate their social networks by divulging inside information, agency problems are exacerbated. This paper also analyzes the degree of risk aversion. As the degree of a manager’s risk aversion increases, the risk-reduction effect of inside trading is reduced.

Systematic Risk of Islamic REITs and Conventional REITs in Malaysia

Executive SummaryIn this paper, we evaluate the systematic risks of Islamic real estate investment trusts (REITs) and conventional REITs in Malaysia for the period from August 3, 2005 to December 19, 2014. Our results show that IREITs have lower systematic risks than other conventional REITs. The results are consistent when stochastic betas are estimated using time-varying coefficient models. We also find that new IREIT entry creates significant risk reduction effects for the conventional REIT markets. When we test the effects of the conversion of Axis REIT from a conventional REIT to an IREIT, we find that the systematic risks of Axis REIT significant reduce between the periods “before” and “after” the conversion. The findings imply that the lower betas of IREITs could protect IREIT investors against stock market volatilities that could not be diversified away.

Risk factors for HIV infection among circumcised men in Uganda: a case-control study.

IntroductionMale circumcision (MC) reduces the risk of HIV infection. However, the risk reduction effect of MC can be modified by type of circumcision (medical, traditional and religious) and sexual risk behaviours post-circumcision. Understanding the risk behaviours associated with HIV infection among circumcised men (regardless of form of circumcision) is critical to the design of comprehensive risk reduction interventions. This study assessed risk factors for HIV infection among men circumcised through various circumcision approaches.MethodsThis was a case-control study which enrolled 155 cases (HIV-infected) and 155 controls (HIV-uninfected), all of whom were men aged 18–35 years presenting at the AIDS Information Center for HIV testing and care. The outcome variable was HIV sero-status. Using SPSS version 17, multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors independently associated with HIV infection.ResultsOverall, 83.9% among cases and 56.8% among controls were traditionally circumcised; 7.7% of cases and 21.3% of controls were religiously circumcised while 8.4% of cases and 21.9% of controls were medically circumcised. A higher proportion of cases than controls reported resuming sexual intercourse before complete wound healing (36.9% vs. 14.1%; p<0.01). Risk factors for HIV infection prior to circumcision were:being in a polygamous marriage (AOR: 6.6, CI: 2.3–18.8) and belonging to the Bagisu ethnic group (AOR: 6.1, CI: 2.6–14.0). After circumcision, HIV infection was associated with: being circumcised at >18 years (AOR: 5.0, CI: 2.4–10.2); resuming sexual intercourse before wound healing (AOR: 3.4, CI: 1.6–7.3); inconsistent use of condoms (AOR: 2.7, CI: 1.5–5.1); and having sexual intercourse under the influence of peers (AOR: 2.9, CI: 1.5–5.5). Men who had religious circumcision were less likely to have HIV infection (AOR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2–0.9) than the traditionally circumcised but there was no statistically significant difference between those who were traditionally circumcised and those who were medically circumcised (AOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.1–1.1).ConclusionsBeing circumcised at adulthood, resumption of sexual intercourse before wound healing, inconsistent condom use and having sex under the influence of peers were significant risk factors for HIV infection. Risk reduction messages should address these risk factors, especially among traditionally circumcised men.

Effect of preoperative statin therapy on postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major surgery: systemic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to examine the association between preoperative use of statins and postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major surgery by performing a systemic review and meta-analysis. MEDLINE and EMBASE, from inception to April 2013, and the reference lists of related articles were searched for relevant studies. Trials comparing preoperative statin therapy with no preoperative statin in patients undergoing major surgery were included. Outcome measures of interest were the risk of cumulative postoperative AKI and postoperative AKI requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). Fixed or random effect meta-analysis was performed to derive summary effect estimates. In five randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 19 observational studies, comprising a total of 989 173 patients undergoing major surgery, 112 840 patients (11.41%) received preoperative statin therapy. The specific type, dosage, and duration of statin therapy were not available in most studies. Preoperative statin therapy was associated with a significant risk reduction for cumulative postoperative AKI (weighted summary odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.95). The effect of risk reduction was also significant when considering postoperative AKI requiring RRT (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.90). When restricting the analysis to the five RCTs, preoperative statin therapy did not show significant protective effect on postoperative AKI (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.22 to 1.09). In patients undergoing major surgery, preoperative statin therapy could associate with a reduced risk for postoperative AKI. However, considerable heterogeneity existed among included studies. Future randomized trials were warranted for this critical clinical question.

Measuring the effect of aviation safety risk reduction on flight choice in young travellers

More information about safety is becoming more generally available to travellers, but the extent to which passengers use safety information to make decisions about which airlines to take is relatively unknown. This study attempts to examine the extent to which safety information plays a role in travellers’ flight choices. Using the stated choice methodology, we modelled how the choice of a flight option is related to factors, including price, schedule, safety, travel time and airline inflight service quality. The study found that, in the context of a young adult college student population, price and safety information emerge as the most important factors influencing airline choices. Interestingly, the study found that most of the potential travellers surveyed, when asked about the factors they consider when making flight choices, do not nominate safety. However, when specific safety-risk information is introduced in the stated choice conditions, respondents considered this factor in making their choices between flight alternatives. This paper contributes towards a more complete understanding of how passengers use safety information and notes how this can be analytically translated into commercial implications for the aviation industry.

Beyond the negative relation between return and conditional volatility in the wine market

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine fine wine’s safe-haven status with respect to US equity movements. Design/methodology/approach – We use a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and its variant to measure the asymmetric reaction to positive and negative shocks. Findings – Our empirical results show an inverted asymmetric volatility in the wine market; positive shocks increase the conditional volatility more than negative shocks. That is the opposite reaction in the volatility of equity returns occurs in the wine market. As leverage effect and volatility feedback effect do not adequately explain this reaction, we follow the work of Baur (2012) and propose the safe haven effect. Several robustness tests largely confirm the empirical findings, with major implications for wine investors. Finally, we provide further evidence on the benefits of adding wine investments to an equity portfolio through an increase in risk reduction effectiveness. Research limitations/implications – Based on the results of the robustness analysis, the recommendations in terms of including fine wines in portfolios must be issued with caution. Practical implications – Our findings are crucial to the needs of market participants who are interested in including wine assets in their equity portfolio. Originality/value – No previous study investigates the safe haven property of fine wine return, and accounts for risk reduction effectiveness when adding wine assets to a portfolio of US equities.

Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment.According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By combining a better prediction with an enhanced satellite protection the S1 is estimated to extend its extra mission lifetime by 4% with respect to its nominal lifetime (7.25years).

Understanding and overcoming risks to cooperation along transboundary rivers

This study reviews the experience of cooperation in five international river basins, focusing on the perceptions of risks and opportunities by country decision makers responding to a specific prospect of cooperation, and the effects of risk reduction and opportunity enhancement on the cooperation process. We explore the following five categories of risk: Capacity and Knowledge; Accountability and Voice; Sovereignty and Autonomy; Equity and Access; and Stability and Support. We surmise that risk perception plays a key and less understood role in decision-making processes over shared rivers cooperation, and conclude that countries and third parties can best achieve sustainable cooperation when long-term investments are made in risk reduction. We also point to areas for further study to better understand the motivations for cooperation.

Average drawdown risk reduction and risk tolerances

We investigate the effects of average drawdown risk reduction on US mutual funds. Due to numerous evidence of the asymmetric distribution of portfolio returns, the asymmetric risk measures have extensively been used in risk management during the recent decades with extensive usages on the n-degree lower partial moment (LPM) methodology. Unlike the previous literature, we use the n-degree average drawdown risk measure, which is a special case of n-degree LPM, to empirically investigate the impacts of n-degree average drawdown risk reduction on the risk tolerances generated by the US mutual funds.The evidence shows that skewness does not impose any significant problem on the n-degree A-DRM model. Moreover, the effect of changing the tolerances of average drawdown risk in the n-degree A-DRM models is a reduction in the fund returns. The n-degree CA-DRM optimization model reduces investors׳ risk more than other models. Thus, the A-DRM can be accommodated with risk-averse investors׳ approach. The efficient set of mean–variance choices from the investment opportunity set, as described by Markowitz, shows that the n-degree CA-DRM algorithms create this set with lower risk than other algorithms. It implies that the mean–variance opportunity set generated by the n-degree CA-DRM creates lower risk for a given return than covariance and CLPM.

河川を活用した浮体式災害時医療支援システムの実現可能性に関する基礎的検討

An innumerable number of buildings in the coastal part of the east side of Japan were devastated by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Medical institutions also suffered the damage caused by tsunami, and the function to carry out the medical act has been spoiled. And the disabled concentrated on the medical institution which avoided tsunami damage. Under such circumstances, assistance from the water area began three days after the earthquake disaster, and much support supplies reached the stricken area. It was revealed that the support from the water area including the river was extremely effective against the stricken area.And then, the Tokyo Inland Earthquake disaster was assumed, floating medical support system installed in the quay of Arakawa River in Tokyo was proposed. Floating medical support system is movable; furthermore, it is built in the structural system of having very high isolation characteristics. Therefore, feasibility study such as selection of suitable setting position of this floating structure on Arakawa River, floor planning and flow planning at the time of always and a disaster, facilities and storage of various material,structural strength of the floating base, and the effects of disaster risk reduction was carried out about floating medical support system.

Depression as a moderator of benefit from Media Smart: A school-based eating disorder prevention program

ObjectiveTo investigate if baseline depression moderated response to Media Smart, an 8-lesson school-based program previously found to achieve a long-term risk reduction effect in young adolescents. Method540 Grade 8 students (M age = 13.62 years, SD = .37) from 4 schools participated with 11 classes receiving the Media Smart program (126 girls; 107 boys) and 13 comparison classes receiving their normal lessons (147 girls; 160 boys). Shape and weight concern, media internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, ineffectiveness, and perceived pressure were the outcome variables. ResultsModeration was indicated by significant interaction effects for group (Media Smart; Control) × moderator (high depression; low depression) × time (post-program; 6-month follow-up; 2.5-year follow-up), with baseline entered as a covariate. Such effects were found for shape and weight concern, media internalization, body dissatisfaction, ineffectiveness and perceived pressure. Post-hoc testing found high depression Media Smart participants scored significantly lower than their control counterparts at post-program on shape and weight concern, media internalization and dieting, whereas low depression Media Smart participants scored significantly lower on shape and weight concern at 2.5-year follow-up. DiscussionMedia Smart achieved a reduction in eating disorder risk factors for high-depression participants and a reduced rate of growth in risk factor scores for low-depression participants.Trial registry name: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry.URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au.Registration identification number: ACTRN12608000545369.

Soccer-specific warm-up and lower extremity injury rates in collegiate male soccer players.

A number of comprehensive injury-prevention programs have demonstrated injury risk-reduction effects but have had limited adoption across athletic settings. This may be due to program noncompliance, minimal exercise supervision, lack of exercise progression, and sport specificity. A soccer-specific program described as the F-MARC 11+ was developed by an expert group in association with the Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-MARC) to require minimal equipment and implementation as part of regular soccer training. The F-MARC 11+ has been shown to reduce injury risk in youth female soccer players but has not been evaluated in an American male collegiate population. To investigate the effects of a soccer-specific warm-up program (F-MARC 11+) on lower extremity injury incidence in male collegiate soccer players. Cohort study. One American collegiate soccer team followed for 2 seasons. Forty-one male collegiate athletes aged 18-25 years. The F-MARC 11+ program is a comprehensive warm-up program targeting muscular strength, body kinesthetic awareness, and neuromuscular control during static and dynamic movements. Training sessions and program progression were monitored by a certified athletic trainer. Lower extremity injury risk and time lost to lower extremity injury. The injury rate in the referent season was 8.1 injuries per 1000 exposures with 291 days lost and 2.2 injuries per 1000 exposures and 52 days lost in the intervention season. The intervention season had reductions in the relative risk (RR) of lower extremity injury of 72% (RR = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = 0.09, 0.85) and time lost to lower extremity injury (P < .01). This F-MARC 11+ program reduced overall risk and severity of lower extremity injury compared with controls in collegiate-aged male soccer athletes.

Mo1592 Relationship Between Prevalence of Advanced Neoplasia and Frequency of Colonoscopic Intervention—Historical Analysis of 2391 Patients WHO Underwent Surveillance Colonoscopy in Four Japanese Endoscopic Centers—

Recent population-based studies in the United States revealed that a significant proportion of patients developed colorectal cancer (CRC) after colonoscopy; however, increase in the frequency of colonoscopic intervention may or may not have a risk reduction effect on interval cancers. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the prevalence of advanced neoplasia and the frequency of colonoscopic intervention in the past.

Mo1593 Adenoma Detection Rate in Asymptomatic Patients Undergoing Initial Screening Colonoscopy: High Rate and Low Risk Cohorts

adenoma in the groups that underwent colonoscopy twice or three times within the previous 5 years, compared with the group that underwent colonoscopy once or less in the low-risk group, and in the increased-risk group were 0.33 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.81] and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.28-0.83), respectively, after adjusting for age, sex, and family history of CRC. Conclusions: Increasing the frequency of colonoscopic intervention would have a risk reduction effect on interval cancers. Colonoscopic intervention twice or three times within the previous 5 years in the low-risk group and the increased-risk group had 67% and 52% risk reduction effects for prevalence of advanced adenoma, respectively.

Reduction in Cardiometabolic Disease Risk Following Gastric Bypass Surgery Among Hispanic Adults

The increasing prevalence of US morbid obesity is associated with serious health consequences and high medical costs, particularly among ethnic minority groups. Little information is available on the long-term weight and chronic disease risk reduction effectiveness of bariatric surgery among Hispanics. A retrospective medical chart analysis of 633 Hispanic adults (76% female, mean age at surgery 41.3 years) from Central and South America and the Caribbean who underwent gastric bypass surgery from 2002 to 2010 was conducted. A presurgery and 1-year postsurgery comparative means analysis of weight, body mass index (BMI), and cardiometabolic disease risk factors [systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides (TGs) was performed. Mean weight (127-109 kg) and BMI (46.4-39.9 kg/m(2)) significantly decreased and all cardiometabolic disease risk factors improved from before to 1 year after surgery. Males were significantly more likely than females to show postsurgery improvement in weight (-21.7 kg versus -16.9 kg, P<0.0001), HbA1c (-1.1% versus -0.7%, P=0.02), HDL (3.2 mg/dL versus -0.6 mg/dL, P=0.04), and TGs (-97.2 mg/dL versus -54.5 mg/dL, P=0.006) versus females. Conversely, women were significantly more likely than men to have postsurgery improvements in LDL (-24.5 mg/dL versus -12.7 mg/dL, P=0.04). Gastric bypass surgery results in significant weight loss and cardiometabolic disease risk reduction among Hispanic adults 1 year after surgery. These improvements vary by gender. Gastric bypass surgery is an effective treatment option for weight loss and chronic disease risk improvements in Hispanic adults who are not Mexican American.

The effects of drawdown risk reduction on the US hedge funds

We investigate the effects of drawdown risk reduction on the US hedge funds. Despite the existence of numerous evidences on the asymmetric distribution of portfolio returns, the asymmetric risk measures have been extensively applied in risk management during recent years with the considerable applications on the lower partial moment (LPM) methodology. Unlike prior literatures, we use the drawdown risk measure (DRM), which is a special case of LPM, to study the impacts of drawdown risk decrease on management styles of the US hedge funds. The monthly returns are applied for 1720 US hedge funds over the period 2000–2011. The optimization models in the DRM form are run to optimize the risk measures and investigate the effects of drawdown risk reduction. We find that the potential benefits of funds’ diversification may weaken decreases in tolerance levels of drawdown risk. Our findings increase the importance of risk (tolerance) perception, in particular drawdown risk, when making many investment decisions. We find that it can negatively affect portfolio returns. Our findings also show that skewness does not impose any significant problem in the DRM model. The DRM optimization model reduces investors’ risk more than the conventional models and can be accommodated with risk-averse investors’ approach.

Transfer Efficiency Analysis of Margin‐Based Programs

AgriStability, Canada's major farm support and business risk management program, has been in place since 2007. As with most agricultural insurance programs, AgriStability creates opposing incentives where moral hazard and misallocation effects discourage production while the risk reduction effects encourage production. We investigate the relative size of these effects to determine both the degree to which production is distorted and the percentage of government transfer that remains with the producer. Our results indicate mild but differential effects across crops. We find roughly 45% of program payments remains with primary producers. These findings are of particular interest because of their World Trade Organization implications.

High on treatment platelet reactivity against aspirin by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs – pharmacological mechanisms and clinical relevance

Inhibition of platelet function by aspirin results from irreversible inhibition of platelet cyclooxygenase (COX)-1. While sufficient inhibition is obtained at antiplatelet doses (75-325 mg/day) in most (≥95%) treated patients, the antiplatelet effect of aspirin and subsequent cardiovascular risk reduction is much less in clinical settings and disease-dependent. Several reasons for this "high on treatment platelet reactivity" are known. This paper reviews the evidence for an interaction between aspirin and other COX inhibitors, namely non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Numerous experimental studies demonstrated a pharmacodynamic interaction between aspirin and NSAIDs. This likely occurs within the hydrophobic substrate channel of platelet COX-1 and might be explained by molecular competition between inhibitor drugs and substrate (arachidonic acid) at overlapping binding sites. This interaction is found with some compounds, notably ibuprofen and dipyrone (metamizole), but not with others, such as diclofenac and acetaminophen (paracetamol). Hence, this interaction is not a class effect of NSAIDs and/or non-steroidal analgesics but rather due to specific structural requirements which still remain to be defined. In vivo studies on healthy subjects and patients tend to confirm this type of interaction as well as large differences between NSAIDs and non-steroidal analgesics, respectively. These interactions may be clinically relevant and may increase the cardiovascular risk in long-term treatment for primary and secondary cardiovascular prevention in patients with chronic inflammation, such as rheumatoid arthritis. These patients have an elevated risk for myocardial infarctions and may require chronic antiplatelet treatment by aspirin in addition to treatment of inflammatory pain.