Risk Reduction Effect Research Articles

断層変位に対するリスク評価と工学的対応策

Studies have been carried out about fault displacements under the facilities as external hazard, and risk evaluation method for influence on facilities by fault displacements using engineering approach, “accident management” for domestic nuclear facilities. In this paper it shows the scenario of accident results in fault displacements directly under the nuclear power station causes loss of safety of the plant, and shows risk evaluation method measures for the image of quantitative effect of risk reduction by engineering approach, “accident management” for the scenario, and shows examples of application of that.

Consideration of Tsunami Risk Reduction Effect Focusing on Tourists' Evacuation Time in Katase-Nishihama and Kugenuma District,Fujisawa Ciity

Consideration of Tsunami Risk Reduction Effect Focusing on Tourists' Evacuation Time in Katase-Nishihama and Kugenuma District,Fujisawa Ciity

Integrated operational and financial hedging with capacity reshoring

We consider a multinational corporation that employs capacity reshoring, production switching, and financial hedging to manage supply–demand mismatches and currency risk. We optimize mean-conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) by decomposing operations and finance: operational flexibility maximizes expected profit subject to a CVaR constraint, whereas financial hedging minimizes CVaR subject to a minimum expected profit. We report three main findings. First,operational flexibility and financial hedging can be complements: operational flexibility enhances profitability and reduces downside risk, while financial hedging minimizes downside risk and can affect the feasible set of capacity portfolios (albeit indirectly) by relaxing a CVaR constraint. Second,operational flexibility and financial hedging are substitutes in risk reduction (though the latter has greater risk reduction effects in CVaR when used alone). Third,coordinating operations and finance is crucial for minimizing substitution effects. Efficient financial hedging depends on rigorous estimation of cash flow distribution as shaped by operational flexibility, and a capacity portfolio's feasibility relies on financial hedging because of the CVaR constraint.

Restaurants and the single-serve wine by-the-glass conundrum: Risk perception and reduction effects

This study examines risk perception and how wine by-the-glass (WBG) consumption acts as a risk reduction strategy (RRS) in the restaurant environment. An 18-item scale measures the hierarchy and perception of each risk type specific to WBG consumption. Females and those aged between 18 and 45 years are the main groups attracted to drink WBG. WBG consumption decreases mainly social, psychological and physical risks. Due to its risk reducing effect, consumers use WBG as opportunity to try new and more expensive wines, or to try new wines before deciding to buy a 750mL bottle. The fact that they do not have to share with anyone and that less money can be spent per transaction also helps encourage ‘adventurous’ behaviour. This means that WBG consumers do not drink the same wines they usually buy in 750mL bottles in restaurants, and no cannibalization of these wines takes place.

Impacts of geographic diversification on restaurant firms’ risk: Domestic vs. international diversification

In the hospitality context, the diversification literature has evolved to mostly focus on the impact of diversification on firm performance. However, without accounting for risk, the effect of diversification on firm value likely provides an incomplete picture. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of domestic and international geographic diversification on restaurant firms’ risk. This study uses the Berry-Herfindahl Index to measure the degree of domestic and international geographic diversification. Findings show a non-linear relationship between geographic diversification and restaurant firms’ risk. However, different shapes of the non-linear relationship are revealed between domestic and international geographic diversification and between operational and market-based risk. The results of this study indicate that the risk-reduction effects argued from the modern portfolio theory may be partially applicable to the geographic diversification for restaurant firms, suggesting a different view toward financial diversification and corporate diversification.

Road trauma among young Australians: Implementing policy to reduce road deaths and serious injury

ABSTRACTObjective: The objective of this study was to estimate the likely reduction in road trauma associated with the implementation of effective interventions to reduce road trauma among young Australians.Methods: A desktop evaluation was conducted to model the likely reduction in road trauma (deaths and serious injuries resulting in hospitalization) among young people aged 17–24 years residing in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. Potential interventions were identified using a rapid literature review and assigned a score based on evidence of effectiveness and implementation feasibility with the 3 highest scoring interventions included in the modeling. Likely reduction in road trauma was estimated by applying the average risk reduction effect sizes for each intervention to baseline risk (passenger or driver death or serious injury per 100,000 population) of road trauma for young Australians. Point estimates were calculated for the potential number of deaths and serious injuries averted in each state and per 100,000 population, with a one-way sensitivity analysis conducted using uncertainty ranges identified.Results: Peer passenger and night driving restrictions as well as improved vehicle safety measures had the greatest potential to reduce road trauma. Peer passenger restrictions could avert 14 (range: 5–24) and 24 (range: 8–41) hospitalizations per year in Queensland and New South Wales, respectively, and night driving restrictions could avert 17 (range: 7–26), 28 (range: 12–45), and 13 (range: 6–21) hospitalizations annually in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. These interventions reduced fatalities by less than 1 death annually in each state. Improved vehicle safety measures could avert 0–3, 0–4, and 0–3 deaths and 3–91, 4–156, and 2–75 hospitalizations in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria.Conclusions: Key elements of graduated licensing (peer passenger and night driving restrictions) along with vehicle safety interventions offer modest but practically significant reductions in road trauma for young Australians. State governments need to revise current legislation to ensure that these reductions in road trauma can be realized.

ESG Shareholder Engagement and Downside Risk

Direct institutional shareholder engagement on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues has become increasingly important. We show that ESG shareholder engagement reduces downside risk, measured using lower partial moments and value at risk. We document this effect by exploiting proprietary access to the complete engagement database of one of the world’s largest institutional shareholder activist. We document a risk-reduction effect only for engagements where portfolio firms respond with real actions to the investor’s demands. The risk effect of ESG engagement varies across engagement themes. It is effective when governance or strategy & risk topics are addressed, and if changes in firms’ environmental policies are coupled with governance improvements.

Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths - Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969-2020.

IntroductionHeart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020.MethodsWe used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging.ResultsWe predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (–73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (–73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (–33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (–23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied.ConclusionRisk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020.

A cross-scale model coupling approach to simulate the risk-reduction effect of natural adaptation on soybean production under climate change

ABSTRACTThis study establishes a procedure to couple Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and China Agroecological Zone model (AEZ-China). This procedure enables us to quantify the effects of two natural adaptation measures on soybean production in China, concern on which has been growing owing to the rapidly rising demand for soybean and the foreseen global climate change. The parameters calibration and mode verification are based on the observation records of soybean growth at 13 agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain over 1981–2011. The calibration of eco-physiological parameters is based on the algorithms of DSSAT that simulate the dynamic bio-physiological processes of crop growth in daily time-step. The effects of shifts in planting day and changes in the length of growth cycle (LGC) are evaluated by the speedy algorithms of AEZ. Results indicate that without adaptation, climate change from the baseline 1961–1990 to the climate of 2050s as specified in the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies-A1B would decrease the potential yield of soybean. By contrast, simulations of DSSAT using AEZ-recommended cultivars with adaptive LGC and also the corresponding adaptive planting dates show that the risk of yield loss could be fully or partially mitigated across majority of grid cells in the major soybean-growing areas.

Can Social Protection Improve Sustainable Development Goals for Adolescent Health?

BackgroundThe first policy action outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is the implementation of national social protection systems. This study assesses whether social protection provision can impact 17 indicators of five key health-related SDG goals amongst adolescents in South Africa.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal survey of adolescents (10–18 years) between 2009 and 2012. Census areas were randomly selected in two urban and two rural health districts in two South African provinces, including all homes with a resident adolescent. Household receipt of social protection in the form of ‘cash’ (economic provision) and ‘care’ (psychosocial support) social protection, and health-related indicators within five SDG goals were assessed. Gender-disaggregated analyses included multivariate logistic regression, testing for interactions between social protection and socio-demographic covariates, and marginal effects models.FindingsSocial protection was associated with significant adolescent risk reductions in 12 of 17 gender-disaggregated SDG indicators, spanning SDG 2 (hunger); SDG 3 (AIDS, tuberculosis, mental health and substance abuse); SDG 4 (educational access); SDG 5 (sexual exploitation, sexual and reproductive health); and SDG 16 (violence perpetration). For six of 17 indicators, combined cash plus care showed enhanced risk reduction effects. Two interactions showed that effects of care varied by poverty level for boys’ hunger and girls’ school dropout. For tuberculosis, and for boys’ sexual exploitation and girls’ mental health and violence perpetration, no effects were found and more targeted or creative means will be needed to reach adolescents on these challenging burdens.InterpretationNational social protection systems are not a panacea, but findings suggest that they have multiple and synergistic positive associations with adolescent health outcomes. Such systems may help us rise to the challenges of health and sustainable development.

Building fragility curves of sliding failure of concrete gravity dams integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties

In the majority of engineering problems, two kinds of uncertainty are generally considered: natural uncertainty, resulting from the inherent variability in natural processes, and epistemic uncertainty, linked to lack of knowledge. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, considering both types of uncertainty separately before integrating them when performing risk calculations, allows a better understanding on how both types of uncertainty influence risk results.The main purpose of this paper is presenting a consistent procedure to perform fragility analysis for dams in order to identify and track natural and epistemic uncertainty separately. This procedure is particularized for the sliding failure mode of concrete gravity dams, due to its importance. The resulting fragility curves provides a valuable input to quantitative risk models in order to compare the effect of risk reduction and uncertainty reduction investments.The proposed procedure combines the concepts of the Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI) guidelines to develop fragility curves for the nuclear industry with existing reliability techniques for computing fragility curves in the context of concrete dams engineering. The procedure has been applied to a dam to illustrate how it can be used in a real case in such a manner that fragility curves are obtained integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties without losing track of their separate contribution to risk results.

The Boehringer Ingelheim employee study (Part 2): 10-year cardiovascular diseases risk estimation.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) may cause an economic burden to companies, but CVD risk estimations specific to working populations are lacking. To estimate the 10-year CVD risk in the Boehringer Ingelheim (BI) employee cohort and analyse the potential effect of hypothetical risk reduction interventions. We estimated CVD risk using the Framingham (FRS), PROCAM (PRS) and Reynolds (RRS) risk scores, using cross-sectional baseline data on BI Pharma employees collected from 2005 to 2011. Results were compared using Fisher's exact and Wilcoxon tests. The predictive ability of the score estimates was assessed using receiver-operating characteristics analyses. Among the 4005 study subjects, we estimated 10-year CVD risks of 35% (FRS), 9% (PRS) and 6% (RRS) for men and 10% (FRS), 4% (PRS) and 1% (RRS) for women. One hundred and thirty-four (6%) men and 111 (6%) women employees had current CVD. The best predictors of prevalent CVD were the FRS and the RRS for men [area-under-the-curve 0.62 (0.57-0.67) for both]. A hypothetical intervention that would improve systolic blood pressure, HbA1c (for diabetes), C-reactive protein, triglycerides and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10% each would potentially reduce expected CVD cases by 36-41% in men and 30-45% in women, and if smoking cessation is incorporated, by 39-45% and 30-55%, respectively, depending on the pre-intervention risk score. There was a substantial risk of developing CVD in this working cohort. Occupational health programmes with lifestyle interventions for high-risk individuals may be an effective risk reduction measure.

Using functional responses to quantify interaction effects among predators

SummaryPredator diversity alterations have been observed in most ecosystems as a result of the loss and/ or addition of species. This has implications for predator–prey dynamics as non‐trophic interactions among predators, so‐called multiple predator effects (MPE), are known to influence predation success. In addition, there is often a density‐dependent relationship between prey availability and prey consumption (functional response). WhileMPEinvestigations are common in the literature, functional responses have rarely been incorporated into this field of predation ecology.Here, we outline an experimental procedure that incorporates functional responses into multiple predator effect studies. Using three fish species with different functional traits as model predators (bluegillLepomis macrochirus,southern mouthbrooderPseudocrenilabrus philanderand banded tilapiaTilapia sparrmanii), we assess intra‐ and interspecific predator interaction outcomes on predator–prey dynamics. This was done by contrasting observed functional responses of heterospecific and conspecific combinations of predators with expected responses based on those of individual predators.Multipredator combinations produced variable results. Bluegill were the only species in which observed conspecific multipredator functional responses matched those of expected based on individual performance (prey risk neutral effects). In contrast, prey risk reduction was observed for both mouthbrooder and tilapia conspecific multipredator trials. Heterospecific combinations revealed strong prey risk reduction effects for mouthbrooder–tilapia and bluegill–tilapia trials, while mouthbrooder–bluegill multipredator functional responses combined additively. These results are discussed within the context of behavioural traits of the species and the development of a trait‐based predictive framework.Using a functional response approach allowed for the assessment of multiple predator effects across a range of prey densities. We propose that the incorporation of within‐guild predator combinations into classic functional response investigations will enhance predictive capacity development in competition and predation ecology.Alay summaryis available for this article.

Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk.

A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied.

Current concepts in the management of rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by inflammation and joint destruction that causes significant morbidity and mortality. However, the combined use of methotrexate, a synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD), and biologic DMARD has revolutionized treatment of RA. Clinical remission is now realistic targets, achieved by a large proportion of RA patients, and rapid and appropriate induction of remission by intensive treatment with biological DMARD and methotrexate is prerequisite to halt joint damage and functional disabilities. However, biological DMARD is limited to intravenous or subcutaneous uses and orally available small but strong molecules have been developed. Oral administration of tofacitinib targeting the Janus kinase (JAK) is significantly effective than placebo in active patients with methotrexatenaïve, inadequately responsive to methotrexate or tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitors. The efficacy was rapid and as strong as adalimumab, a TNF-inhibitor. Meanwhile, association of tofacitinib on carcinogenicity and malignancy is under debate and further investigation on post-marketing survey would be warranted. On the other hand, discontinuation of a biological DMARD without disease flare is our next goal and desirable from the standpoint of risk reduction and cost effectiveness, especially for patients with clinical remission. Recent reports indicate that more than half of early RA patients could discontinue TNF-targeted biological DMARD without clinical flare and functional impairment after obtaining clinical remission. Contrarily, for established RA, fewer patients sustained remission after the discontinuation of biological DMARD and “deep remission” at the discontinuation was a key factor to keep the treatment holiday of biological DMARD.

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies.

Marital Status, Lifestyle and Dementia: A Nationwide Survey in Taiwan.

BackgroundEvidence of an association between lifestyle and marital status and risk of dementia is limited in Asia.MethodsIn this nationwide population-based cross-sectional survey, participants were selected by computerized random sampling from all 19 counties in Taiwan. A total of 10432 residents were assessed by a door-to-door in-person survey, among whom 7035 were normal and 929 were diagnosed with dementia using the criteria recommended by National Institute on Aging-Alzheimer’s Association. Premorbid lifestyle habits and demographic data including marital status were compared between normal subjects and participants with dementia.ResultsAfter adjustment for age, gender, education, body mass index, smoking, drinking, marital status, sleep habits, exercise, social engagement and co-morbidities including hypertension, diabetes and cerebrovascular diseases, an increased risk for dementia was found in people with widow or widower status (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.15–1.77) and people who used to take a nap in the afternoon (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.02–1.72). Decreased risk was found in people with the habit of regular exercise (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.09–0.16), adequate night sleep (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39–0.76) and regular social engagement (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.36–0.77).ConclusionsOur results provide preliminary evidence of possible risk-reduction effects for dementia, including regular exercise even in modest amounts, social engagement and adequate night sleep, whereas people with the widow/widower status or who used to take an afternoon nap might have increased risk of dementia.

Convertible Bonds and Bank Risk-Taking

We study how contingent capital that converts in equity ahead of default affects bank risk-shifting. Going concern conversion restores equity value in highly levered states, thus reducing heightened risk incentives. In contrast, conversion at default for traditional bail-inable debt has no effect on endogenous risk. The main beneficial effect comes from reduced leverage at conversion. In contrast to traditional convertible debt, equity dilution under going concern conversion has the opposite effect. The negative effect of dilution is tempered by any value transfer at conversion. We find that CoCo capital may be less risky than bail-inable debt when lower priority is compensated by lower endogenous risk, which is beneficial as a lower bond yield improves incentives. The risk reduction effect of CoCo debt depends critically on the informativeness of the trigger, but is always inferior to pure equity.

Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

A benchmark system to optimize our defense against an attack on the US food supply using the Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program.

A predictive system was developed and tested in a series of exercises with the objective of evaluating the preparedness and effectiveness of the multiagency response to food terrorism attacks. A computerized simulation model, Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program (RRECAP), was developed to identify the key factors that influence the outcomes of an attack and quantify the relative reduction of such outcomes caused by each factor. The model was evaluated in a set of Tabletop and Full-Scale Exercises that simulate biological and chemical attacks on the food system. More than 300 participants representing more than 60 federal, state, local, and private sector agencies and organizations. The exercises showed that agencies could use RRECAP to identify and prioritize their advance preparation to mitigate such attacks with minimal expense. RRECAP also demonstrated the relative utility and limitations of the ability of medical resources to treat patients if responders do not recognize and mitigate the attack rapidly, and the exercise results showed that proper advance preparation would reduce these deficiencies. Using computer simulation prediction of the medical outcomes of food supply attacks to identify optimal remediation activities and quantify the benefits of various measures provides a significant tool to agencies in both the public and private sector as they seek to prepare for such an attack.