Water Scarcity Risk Research Articles

Changing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Health Impacts in an Outer Island in Kiribati: A Qualitative Study

Purpose: The objective of this research is to investigate climate change impacts and resilience strategies in an outer island community in Kiribati, a Pacific nation highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Originality: This research is the first ethnographic investigation in outer islands of Kiribati regarding the influence of climate change on the islanders’ life and health. Methodology: Using a qualitative, ethnographic approach, we explore community perceptions of climate change, health impacts, and local adaptations to environmental stressors. A purposive sampling of 48 households and five primary healthcare providers was conducted to gather insights into how residents experience and respond to challenges such as coastal erosion, water scarcity, food insecurity, and health risks. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews in I-Kiribati and English, focusing on three core domains: perceptions of climate risk, identification of vulnerable groups, and the role of social networks in resilience. Result: The findings highlight a high level of climate change awareness, with participants describing the loss of land, increasingly unpredictable weather, and rising salinity as immediate threats to their livelihoods. Coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion have significantly reduced arable land and freshwater resources, forcing islanders to relocate and rely on communal water tanks. Health impacts include increased prevalence of waterborne diseases, respiratory issues, and heat stress, exacerbated by limited healthcare resources. Additionally, rising sea temperatures and ecological changes have disrupted fishing, a vital food source, leading to greater reliance on imported goods. Despite these challenges, social networks, known locally as “macoro,” play a crucial role in resilience, facilitating communal water sharing, labor for relocating homes, and collective resource management. However, the community also expresses climate anxiety and a desire for external support to develop sustainable adaptation strategies. Conclusions and Implication: The findings of this research underscore the need for culturally sensitive, community-driven adaptation policies that address the specific vulnerabilities of Kiribati’s outer islands. This study contributes to understanding resilience in Pacific atoll communities, highlighting the value of traditional support networks and the urgent need for targeted interventions to mitigate climate impacts and support adaptive capacity.

The annual dynamic dataset of high-resolution crop water use in China from 1991 to 2019

Accurately quantifying agricultural water use is essential for protecting agricultural systems from the risk of water scarcity and promoting sustainable water management. While previous studies have innovatively provided spatially explicit analyses or datasets, they tend to have relatively coarse resolution (~8.3 km), and inadequately considered precise localization parameters. Here, we produced annual blue and green water use for 15 main crops with a resolution of 1 km for the years 1991–2019 in China. Firstly, we estimated the yearly crop blue and green water use at the site scale by incorporating more localized input parameters using a dynamic water balance model. Then, the random forest model was combined with site-scale simulation results to generate spatial predictions of blue and green water for each crop from 1991 to 2019. The resulting maps showed a high correlation with locally observed values at field stations (R2 = 0.95), statistics (R2 = 0.77), and exhibited some strengths compared with existing datasets that covered various scales. This dataset can play a key role in devising sustainable water management strategies.

Study on the pattern and driving factors of water scarcity risk transfer networks in China from the perspective of transfer value—Based on complex network methods

Study on the pattern and driving factors of water scarcity risk transfer networks in China from the perspective of transfer value—Based on complex network methods

Beyond water stress: Exploring the wastewater-irrigation for sustainable Agriculture

Abstract Water management is one of the crucial factors that impact the globally. As droughts become more frequent due to global warming, of this limited resource becomes increasingly important. Lately, tion of wastewater for irrigation purposes is considered a game that in many cases, wastewater treatment is poorly studied. This the EU member states water management practices based on the FAO Kruskal-Wallis test of the clustered countries revealed that the the most attention to wastewater treatment within the EU. Even oped countries treat quite low amount of wastewater, and based on are more likely to face water scarcity, the applied methods did not between the water stress levels of the clustered member states. cal tests highlighted that the various water stress levels of the not be connected with the utilization of the existing irrigation results, increasing the application of the built-out system may cient to serve and even increase the operation of the agricultural putting additional strain on the resources in the short term. of wastewater-based irrigation systems could be useful in those lization of the existing irrigation system is already high, or face Since we are still learning how to deal with this new resource, the of less contaminated water sources like collected rainwater or the development of the new system. This promising approach could significantly to several Sustainable Development Goals but also hance and over time even supersede the current method. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: The research analyzes water management practices across the member states using FAO’s Aquastat database. The study found that developing EU regions pay more attention to ment compared to more developed regions, which treat a lower ater despite facing water scarcity risks. The EU countries’ diverse water stress levels could not be of the current irrigation system. In short term, the built-out the demand of the agricultural production without increasing sure on the limited resources. The wastewater-based innovations should utilize less contaminated like collected rainwater or greywater in more water-stressed the development of a new sustainable irrigation system.

Hydro-Economic Risk and Resilience to Supply Chain Water Scarcity in Chinese Cities.

Present understanding on virtual scarce water embedded in supply chains has primarily focused on water quantities. Yet assessing the potential economic cost of and resilience to water scarcity along the supply chain is critical for making informed water and supply chain decisions. We quantified water scarcity risks and resilience at the city level, since fine-grained studies can better capture the highly varied water resource availability, demand and socio-economic development across China. To do this, we used an income-based multiregional input-output approach between 2007 and 2017, which allows the economic impacts of water scarcity along supply chains to be comprehensively assessed. The results show that supply chains amplify potential local economic risks by three times nationally, with the amplification effect reaching ten times in some cities. The resilience to water scarcity, taking into account multiple dimensions including the impact of physical water transfer, varies across different cities and is negatively correlated to water scarcity risks. This suggests the importance of addressing correlated risk and resilience dimensions to enhance hydro-economic security of cities. Our analysis highlights those cities facing both high hydro-economic risk and low resilience, primarily located in North, Northeast, and East China, which national policies may prioritize to enhance their preparedness against water scarcity.

Driving effects of ecosystems and social systems on water supply and demand in semiarid areas

Driving effects of ecosystems and social systems on water supply and demand in semiarid areas

Analyzing urban water metabolism of Adama city using water mass balance method for advancing water sensitive interventions

Urban water metabolism focuses on measuring water inflows and outflows within a defined urban system. As an emerging concept, it provides valuable understandings into water flow dynamics, supporting evidence-based decision-making. One approach to quantify these flows is the urban water mass balance method, which accounts for both human-induced and natural water resources. By equating these flows, it identifies whether water movement within the system is linear or circular. The primary goal of water mass balance analysis is to assess how closely a city aligns with water-sensitive management approaches. However, urban metabolism studies are rare in developing countries, where cities often lack the experience to estimate water inflows and outflows for informed water-sensitive interventions. This study addresses this gap by analyzing Adama city in Ethiopia using the water mass balance method to measure its water metabolism. The result revealed that the city faces a negative water balance with outflows exceeding inflows by 46.89 million cubic meters annually. The results indicated that Adama’s water flow follows a linear “take-make-use-dispose” model. The imbalance in Adama’s water cycle is driven by urbanization, impervious surfaces, and climate change, which increase runoff and evaporation. The study found that 61.3% of the city’s water comes from a centralized system, with 90% sourced from distant rivers through a telecoupling system. In the city, inadequate water harvesting, high population density and intensive water use are worsening water scarcity. Urban water metabolism indicators reveal significant losses and indicating the need for water conservation efforts. Despite the reliance on centralized systems, the study identifies strong potential for decentralized solutions and alternative water harvesting. To tackle these challenges, the research recommends adopting water-sensitive strategies such as low-impact development, sustainable urban drainage systems, and water-sensitive urban design and planning. These approaches can reduce the negative effects of urbanization, mitigate urban water scarcity risks and improve water management through water sensitive management approach. The study also emphasizes the need for collaborative learning, community involvement, and innovative technologies, supported by legal frameworks to ensure effective water wise interventions. Shifting toward circular water management and decentralized water systems will boost Adama’s resilience and promote sustainable water resource management, making the city more internally self-sufficient.

Burj Rashid: a tale of two tides – rising waters and changing traditions

PurposeThis paper delves into the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and practices of Burj Rashid, an ancient historical city on Egypt’s northern coast, which stands at the meeting point of the Nile’s western branch and the Mediterranean Sea. Burj Rashid boasts a strategic location and rich natural resources and has a long history of relationships between land, people, river, sea and climate change, serving as a model for residents’ adaptation to their ever-changing surroundings.Design/methodology/approachClimate studies have exposed the village’s vulnerability to climate and topographical hazards such as rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, decreasing precipitation, encroaching seas due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and high soil salinization. These factors pose a high risk of water scarcity, crop failure in the medium term, potential famine in the long term and declining fish populations, threatening fishing communities. To address these challenges, the Net Zero: Heritage for Climate Action project - launched by the International Centre for the Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property (ICCROM) and the First Aid and Resilience for Culture in Times of Crisis program, funded by Swedish Postcode - proposes a research and development methodology through a platform that weaves together heritage knowledge and climate science. The Egyptian Heritage Rescue Foundation has implemented a platform in Burj Rashid as an innovative site to study risks, vulnerabilities and capacities.FindingsThe project will explore root causes, identify risk scenarios and establish a stakeholder map to guide the development of mitigation strategies and resilience-building measures.Originality/valueBy harnessing the wisdom of TEK and integrating it with scientific knowledge, the project paves the way for innovative climate change adaptation strategies that ensure the long-term sustainability of Burj Rashid’s unique cultural heritage.

Modelling and optimisation of thermal expansion and thermal conductivity using face-centred central composite design-based response surface methodology: An experimental approach

Due to the shortage in availability of potable water the risk of water scarcity has reached its heights. Researchers have developed methods to increase the availability of potable water in various ways. Solar desalination technique using solar still would assure to have efficient water yield. Thermal energy plays an essential role in the output efficiency of PV panel and the production of solar still. The purpose of our paper is focused on optimisation of thermal properties of Aluminium, Copper and Iron. To obtain the optimised value of thermal properties namely thermal conductivity and thermal expansion an approach called response surface methodology is used. It would reduce the count in which the experiment is repeated as it has a pre-determined set of input parameters and further helps in cost reduction. The optimised input parameters are the volume percentage of Aluminium-0.17 percentage, Copper-2.42 percentage and Iron-2.64 percentage. The optimized output values obtained are of thermal conductivity and thermal expansion. A method called the two-probe method is used for determining the thermal conductivity and the Buoyancy method helps in determining the thermal expansion of the considered samples. The obtained optimised values are inferred from ANOVA. For thermal conductivity, the Adjusted R2 is 0.9796 and for thermal expansion the Adjusted R2 is 0.9032. The Standard Deviation is observed to be 0.202 whereas the Mean value is observed to be 0.4666. The resulting optimised values of thermal conductivity and thermal expansion are 0.467 W/(m*K) and 1.534*10−5(1/K). This ensured the reduced repetition of the experimental run to identify the optimal output value of the system using response surface methodology through central composite design.

COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS AND AWARENESS ON WATER RELATED DISASTERS IN RAUB, PAHANG

Water is essential for all living things. But water also prone to the risk of water related disaster which is not a new phenomenon that happened worldwide including Malaysia. Despite disasters always associated with natural catastrophe, disaster can be classified into three categories namely natural, man-made and hybrid disasters. Notwithstanding the category of disasters, the impact of it would cause loss of lives, damage to property or the environment as well as affecting the daily activities of local community. Therefore, this research aims to identify the issues related to water related disaster among community in Raub, Pahang, examine the level of knowledge that affects community preparedness and awareness, community participation and empowerment of the community in creating resiliency towards water related disasters, and finally to propose a framework of community resiliency to water related disasters in Raub, Pahang. In achieving the objectives, qualitative research methods were adopted using face to face interview and qualitative online survey using semi structured interview protocols. This research found that past and present experience by the community had imparted a good understanding of water scarcity among the community in Raub. However, their preparedness level to be independent in dealing with the risk of water scarcity is still low as they had few constraints to establish a more structured water scarcity management system with less dependence on the government’s assistance.

Spatial correlations and risk transmission of virtual water flow at city scale: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Spatial correlations and risk transmission of virtual water flow at city scale: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Global reduction in sensitivity of vegetation water use efficiency to increasing CO2

Global reduction in sensitivity of vegetation water use efficiency to increasing CO2

Land Rights and Their Environmental Implications for Indigenous Communities in Nusantara Capital City

Article 16A of the IKN Law addresses the extension of land rights periods for business entities. Given the existence of many unrecognized customary law communities in East Kalimantan Province, it is crucial to assess the impact of such extensions on these communities within the IKN (Capital City of Nusantara). This study aims to examine the implications of granting land rights under Law No. 21 of 2023 concerning IKN on the living environment of indigenous peoples in the region. The research employs a normative juridical approach, utilizing both statutory and conceptual frameworks. The findings reveal that Article 16A of the IKN Law, along with its implementing regulations concerning the extension of land rights for business entities, has the potential to adversely affect indigenous communities by exacerbating environmental issues. Specifically, the prolonged extension of land rights diminishes state control over land, accelerates deforestation to the detriment of indigenous communities who rely on forests, increases the risk of water scarcity, and potentially triggers agrarian conflicts and disputes. The study recommends aligning the land rights duration in the IKN Law with that of the Basic Agrarian Law, expediting the local government’s data collection on indigenous communities, involving these communities in decision-making processes, and advocating for the legalization of the Indigenous Peoples Bill.

Hydrological responses projection to the potential impact of climate change under CMIP6 models scenarios in Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Hydrological responses projection to the potential impact of climate change under CMIP6 models scenarios in Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Vegetation increases global climate vulnerability risk by shifting climate zones in response to rising atmospheric CO2

Global climate zones are experiencing widespread shifts with ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2, influencing vegetation growth and shifting its distributions to challenge ecosystem structure and function, posing threats on ecological and societal safety. However, how rising atmospheric CO2 affects the pace of global climate zone shifts is highly uncertain. More attentions are urgently required to understand the underlying mechanisms and quantifications of regional climate vulnerability in response to rising CO2. In this study, we employ nine Earth system models from CMIP6 to investigate global climate zone shifts with rising CO2, unravel the effects of vegetation physiological response (PHY), and categorize climate vulnerable regions depending on the extent of climate zone shifts. We find that climate zone shifts over half of the global land area, 16.8% of which is contributed by PHY at 4×CO2. Intriguingly, besides warming, PHY-induced precipitation changes and their interactions with warming dominate about two-fifths of PHY-forced shifts, providing potential direction for model improvement in future predictions of climate zone shifts. Aided with PHY effects, 4×CO2 imposes substantial climate zone shifts over about one-fifth of the global land area, suggesting substantial changes in local climate and ecosystem structure and functions. Hence, those regions would experience strong climate vulnerability, and face high risk of climate extremes, water scarcity and food production. Our results quantitatively identify the vulnerable regions and unravel the underlying drivers, providing scientific insights to prioritize conservation and restoration efforts to ensure ecological and social safety globally.

Linking local and global: Assessing water scarcity risk through nested trade networks

AbstractAs water scarcity escalates globally, there is a growing focus on assessing its economic impact, both locally and through trade networks, defined as water scarcity risk (WSR). Given China's pivotal role as a top importer and exporter, coupled with significant spatial disparities in water scarcity across its provinces, understanding the spread of water scarcity risks within China and their interplay with global water dynamics is imperative yet relatively unexplored. This study constructs a nested Multi‐Regional Input‐Output (MRIO) model to evaluate water scarcity risk, connecting Chinese provinces with global counterparts. Notably, we integrate the spatial heterogeneity of environmental flow requirement as a vital criterion for long‐term sustainable water management in our assessment. Our findings reveal substantial economic impacts caused by water scarcity, with a global WSR valued at $11.1 trillion, of which $6.2 trillion is attributed to trade. Critical regions, sectors, and region‐sectors are identified, offering valuable insights for targeted interventions. This study presents a unique perspective on global water scarcity risk assessment at a higher resolution scale, laying the groundwork for the formulation of effective water scarcity risk mitigation strategies aligned with sustainable development goals, particularly SDG 6 and 8.

Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion.

Hydropower plays a pivotal role in low-carbon electricity generation, yet many projects are situated in regions facing heightened water scarcity risks. This research devised a plant-level Hydropower Water Scarcity Index (HWSI), derived from the ratio of water demand for electricity generation to basin-scale available runoff water. We assessed the water scarcity of 1736 hydropower plants in China for the baseline year 2018 and projected into the future from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate a notable increase in hydropower generation facing moderate to severe water scarcity (HWSI >0.05), rising from 10% in 2018 to 24-34% of the national total (430-630 TWh), with a projected peak in the 2030s-2040s under the most pessimistic scenarios. Hotspots of risk are situated in the southwest and northern regions, primarily driven by decreased river basin runoff and intensified sectoral water use, rather than by hydropower demand expansion. Comparative analysis of four adaptation strategies revealed that sectoral water savings and enhancing power generation efficiency are the most effective, potentially mitigating a high of 16% of hydropower risks in China. This study provides insights for formulating region-specific adaptation strategies and assessing energy-water security in the face of evolving environmental and societal challenges.

Improving the Performance of a Forced-flow Desalination Unit using a Vortex Generator

Water is a primary need for living creatures, and water scarcity can trigger a crisis. Water scarcity is becoming an issue in Indonesia, especially in coastal village areas, including salt-producing areas. Salt production involves evaporating large amounts of seawater in concentration ponds. Using evaporated seawater as a source of clean water would reduce the risk of water scarcity. Therefore, this study aims to obtain fresh water by condensing water vapour that evaporates in a desalination unit. More specifically, the study uses a vortex generator to increase the rate and efficiency of evaporation in a forced-flow desalination unit. This research was conducted indoors to reduce uncontrollable variables. An evaporation container with a volume of 0.35 m3 was filled with seawater. The rate of evaporation in the desalination unit with a vortex generator was compared to that in a unit without a vortex generator. The results show that the vortex generator leads to faster evaporation. The rate of evaporation with a vortex generator was 13% higher than that without a vortex generator, and the gained output ratio increased 14% with the vortex generator. Therefore, it can be concluded that vortex generators can improve the performance of desalination equipment

Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches

The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.

Mapping water scarcity risks in global supply chain networks

ABSTRACT Water scarcity poses a significant threat to global supply chains. This study identifies critical sectors and pathways that transmit water scarcity risks using network analysis and a global trade model. Findings show that a few sectors, particularly in China, transmit most global water scarcity risks, with the top 10% responsible for over 60% of the total. Moreover, the rankings of sectors with respect to centrality for transmitting water scarcity risks and centrality for transmitting economic values largely resemble each other, with a Kendall rank correlation coefficient 0.8231 (p < 10−15). Lastly, sectors with high water risk intensity are typically found in Europe. Our findings the need for strategic sector management to mitigate global vulnerabilities. Governments should encourage high-centrality sectors to choose suppliers less exposed to water scarcity risks, while downstream sectors and firms should assess the risks embedded in their inputs.