Spatial correlations and risk transmission of virtual water flow at city scale: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

By introducing virtual water (VW) flow correlation coefficients and risk indicators, this study examines the VW transmission relationship between urban agglomerations and cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and its impact on regional water resources pressure. The results show that: except for the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration (SPUA) and Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), the other urban agglomerations primarily act as VW exporting regions, while virtual water-importing cities are concentrated in the eastern regions. Notably, the Ningxia Urban Agglomeration (NUA) demonstrates significantly higher values in VW impact and sensitivity coefficients than the remaining six urban agglomerations. First-tier cities generally display lower virtual water impact and sensitivity coefficients, whereas emerging cities exhibit the opposite trend. Additionally, we observe uneven risk variations between VW importing and exporting regions. Taking NUA as an example, the risk increase resulting from VW exports significantly exceeds the risk reduction associated with VW imports in the corresponding regions. It's important to highlight that first-tier cities consistently decrease water resource risk through VW imports in both study years. However, among second and third-tier cities, only 38.9% experience reduced water resource risk through VW imports. Therefore, we recommend a focused examination of VW imports and exports in western region urban agglomerations, cities, and second and third-tier cities within the watershed. Leveraging virtual water's asymmetric and high-value transfer can alleviate water resource pressure and scarcity risks in high-pressure regions by shifting them to lower-pressure regions, thus mitigating water resource stress across regions.