Risk Mitigation Measures Research Articles

Role of Microfinance in Mitigating Disasters in Pakistan

The study is aimed at exploring the usage of microfinance and related services to mitigate the effect of natural disasters and risk, both at community and industry level in the current Pakistani context. For this purpose, overall work is carried out based on the various strategies adopted by the Micro Finance Institutes MFIs specifically disaster loan funds, disaster preparedness, designing of new products, sustainability of MFIs through post-disaster approaches. It also provides the evidence to recognize the MF roles within disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures. Along with the risk reduction, it delivers the context for poverty alleviation through provision of diversified earning sources and rehabilitation of local community. It is the first study to explore the role of MFIs in disaster risks reduction and mitigation both at community and industry level in the economy of Pakistan.

Flash point of binary and ternary monoterpene mixtures: Experimental and modeling

The flash point (FP) of pure or mixtures of flammable substances is an important indicator in designing fire risk mitigation and prevention measures in the chemical and oil industry. Although FP data of fuel constituents and blends are often found in the literature, studies addressing other flammable mixtures, such as essential oils (EOs) and their constituents (terpenes and terpenoids), are scarce. EOs are aromatic, volatile liquid mixtures extracted from plant matrices that present diverse biological properties and find numerous applications in the food, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and fragrance industries. In this work, experimental FP measurements of binary and ternary mixtures of four structurally diverse monoterpenes (carvone, eucalyptol, limonene, and linalool), widely found in different EO profiles, were carried out. Besides, the Liaw-UNIFAC model and the COSMO-RS model were used to calculate the FP data of the studied mixtures, resulting in global root-mean-square deviations (RMSD) of 2.0 K and 0.7 K, respectively. Both models deliver better predictions than the ideal approach (RMSD = 2.4 K) for the studied systems, demonstrating the importance of considering nonideal effects when estimating the FP data of terpene mixtures. These results provide essential information for accurate process safety and fire risk assessment in the EO industry.

Public-private flood management: Who should pay and when?

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of an efficient sharing of public and private flood-risk mitigation. Our analysis examines how individuals in a floodplain can best protect their property, given the interdependence between the public offering of structural measures and a private offering of insurance. A key theoretical finding is a separation of the risk space: under a given damage threshold, the public sector mitigates all risk, while above the threshold, the private sector offers insurance. We estimate this theory based on the Lake Champlain and Richelieu River data. We show how a public and private mix increases welfare gains and reduces overall spending on risk mitigation measures.

Perceptions about controlled human infection model (CHIM) studies among members of ethics committees of Indian medical institutions: A qualitative exploration.

Introduction: Controlled Human Infection Model (CHIM) studies provide a unique platform for studying the pathophysiology of infectious diseases and accelerated testing of vaccines and drugs in controlled settings. However, ethical issues shroud them as the disease-causing pathogen is intentionally inoculated into healthy consenting volunteers, and effective treatment may or may not be available. We explored the perceptions of the members of institutional ethics committees (IECs) in India about CHIM studies. Methods: This qualitative exploratory study, conducted across seven sites in India, included 11 focused group discussions (FGD) and 31 in-depth interviews (IDI). A flexible approach was used with the aid of a topic guide. The data were thematically analyzed using grounded theory and an inductive approach. Emerging themes and sub-themes were analyzed, and major emergent themes were elucidated. Results: Seventy-two IEC members participated in the study including 21 basic medical scientists, 29 clinicians, 9 lay people, 6 legal experts and 7 social scientists. Three major themes emerged from this analysis-apprehensions about conduct of CHIM studies in India, a perceived need for CHIM studies in India and risk mitigation measures needed to protect research participants and minimize the associated risks. Conclusion: Development of a specific regulatory and ethical framework, training of research staff and ethics committee members, and ensuring specialized research infrastructure along with adequate community sensitization were considered essential before initiation of CHIM studies in India.

Risk Mitigation Analysis in the Procurement Process of Construction Goods and Services In SIGI District

In every procurement activity, there will be an opportunity for a risk to arise, including activities in the process of procuring goods and services at the Department of Public Works (PU) for Highways and the Regional Secretary (Sekda) of Sigi Regency. To prevent risks, the HOR (House of Risk) method is used which can identify dominant risk sources and prioritize appropriate mitigation strategies to anticipate existing risks. The purpose of this research is to know the risks and analyze the risks that can cause obstacles, as well as to find out the necessary risk mitigation measures for risk events that occur in the process of procuring construction goods and services in Sigi Regency. The results showed that of the 22 identified risk causes for the procurement of construction goods/services, 14 priority risk causes were obtained with the largest Aggregate Risk Priority (ARP) value, namely, the documents required for the completeness of the tender process were incomplete and sudden and the existing personnel did not comply with the requirements. Of the 14 priority risk causes with the largest ARP value, obtained through the Pareto Diagram 6 handling strategies recommended to the Regional Secretary in the field of procurement of construction goods and services. And from the calculation results of the House of Risk 2 method, 2 risk management strategies with the highest Effectiveness to Difficulty (ETD) values are obtained, which will be used in handling 14 priority risk agents.

Machine Learning Approach Based on Smart Ball COMSOL Multiphysics Simulation for Pipe Leak Detection

Due to the changing flow conditions during the pipeline’s operation, several locations of erosion, damage, and failure occur. Leak prevention and early leak detection techniques are the best pipeline risk mitigation measures. To reduce detection time, pipeline models that can simulate these breaches are essential. In this study, numerical modeling using COMSOL Multiphysics is suggested for different fluid types, velocities, pressure distributions, and temperature distributions. The system consists of 12 meters of 8-inch pipe. A movable ball with a diameter of 5 inches is placed within. The findings show that dead zones happen more often in oil than in gas. Pipe insulation is facilitated by the gas phase’s thermal inefficiency (thermal conductivity). The fluid mixing is improved by 2.5 m/s when the temperature is the lowest. More than water and gas, oil viscosity and dead zones lower maximum pressure. Pressure decreases with maximum velocity and vice versa. The acquired oil data set is utilized to calibrate the Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree techniques using MATLAB R2021a, ensuring the precision of the measurement. The classification result reveals that the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT) models have the best average accuracy, which is 98.8%, and 99.87 %, respectively.

Risk analysis of gas dispersion, fire and explosion due to gas pipeline leak at Onshore Receiving Facility of PT XYZ in Muara Karang using Aloha Software 5.4

This research identifies hazards, assesses risks, and recommends mitigations for the risk of gas pipeline leaks at Onshore Receiving Facility (ORF). The objectives of this study are to determine the probability of gas pipeline leaks at ORF and the level of risk of gas pipeline leaks at ORF using a risk matrix, to model gas dispersion, fire, and explosion using ALOHA software to assess the consequences of gas pipeline leaks at ORF, and to provide risk mitigation recommendations to the company if the risk level is unacceptable and the existing risk mitigation measures are not effective. This study is qualitative research in which the author develops a model from theoretical framework to conceptual framework, and then describes the results of the analysis descriptively. The hazard identification approach used historical data from the Hazard Operability’s Study (HAZOP) data, which found that the highest risk level was gas pipeline leaks in pipelines with a pressure of 350 psi. The probability of pipeline leaks was obtained from the Generic Failure Frequency (GFF) table from the existing Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) study. Consequence analysis was performed using modeling software ALOHA and MARPLOT with gas dispersion, fire, and explosion scenarios. The analysis showed that the risk level of gas dispersion, fire, and explosion scenarios were all still acceptable, referring to the criteria of NFPA 59A. Therefore, it can be concluded that the risk level of gas pipeline leaks at ORF is still acceptable, and the existing risk mitigation measures are sufficient.

Optimized workplace risk mitigation measures for SARS-CoV-2 in 2022

596 million SARS-CoV-2 cases have been reported and over 12 billion vaccine doses have been administered. As vaccination rates increase, a gap in knowledge exists regarding appropriate thresholds for escalation and de-escalation of workplace COVID-19 preventative measures. We conducted 133,056 simulation experiments, evaluating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus in hypothesized working environments subject to COVID-19 infections from the community. We tested the rates of workplace-acquired infections based on applied isolation strategies, community infection rates, methods and scales of testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions, variant predominance, vaccination coverages, and vaccination efficacies. When 75% of a workforce is vaccinated with a 70% efficacious vaccine against infection, then no masking or routine testing + isolation strategies are needed to prevent workplace-acquired omicron variant infections when the community infection rate per 100,000 persons is ≤ 1. A CIR ≤ 30, and ≤ 120 would result in no workplace-acquired infections in this same scenario against the delta and alpha variants, respectively. Workforces with 100% worker vaccination can prevent workplace-acquired infections with higher community infection rates. Identifying and isolating workers with antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing methods results in the same or fewer workplace-acquired infections than testing with slower turnaround time polymerase chain reaction methods. Risk migration measures such as mask-wearing, testing, and isolation can be relaxed, or escalated, in commensurate with levels of community infections, workforce immunization, and risk tolerance. The interactive heatmap we provide can be used for immediate, parameter-based case count predictions to inform institutional policy making. The simulation approach we have described can be further used for future evaluation of strategies to mitigate COVID-19 spread.

Long-term vs. short-term measurements in indoor Rn concentration monitoring: Establishing a procedure for assessing exposure potential (RnEP)

Radon (Rn-222 or Rn) is a naturally occurring chemical element that belongs to the progeny of U-238 released from soil and rocks into the atmosphere, whose impact on organisms is not negligible when it occurs inside confined spaces, such as mine shafts or low-ventilated buildings. The current methodologies for indoor radon assessment are based on passive and active detection. If passive detectors are mainly designed for long-term assessment, active detectors are electronic equipment that can allow on-time visualization of results and, therefore, faster decision-making on risk mitigation measures implementation. However, despite offering a prompt and informed decision, the uncertainty associated with active detector results may cast doubt on the quality of the measurements, which especially arises from the duration of the monitoring campaign. Since radon emanation from soils and rocks depends on a set of variables related to meteorological parameters and soil structure, the seasonal variation of these parameters impacts indoor radon concentration assessment, both on short-term and long-term measurements. Therefore, short-term monitoring campaigns lasting a month, a week, or a day may not produce a statistically representative description of indoor radon exposure for the monitored building. Accordingly, the study compares the reliability of short-term and long-term indoor radon measurements. It proposes a procedure for assessing the indoor Radon Exposure Potential (RnEP) based on in situ measurements through the analysis of the frequency of occurrence of results divided into three classes of potential exposure (low, moderate and high) to reduce occupants' radon risk exposure.

The Role of Peroxidases in the Bioremediation of Organic Pollutants

The emergence of organic pollutants such as phenolic acids, pesticides, dyes, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and industrial wastes threatens our environment, including biodiversity, ecosystems of terrestrial and aquatic animals, and human health. It is well known that toxicants disrupt the biochemical balance of organisms and cause physiological effects in individuals. Emerging Organic Pollutants (OPs) have varied levels of lethality depending on their chemical nature and byproducts, properties and composition of the compound fractions, mode of exposure, levels of exposure, and time of exposure. Accordingly, risk mitigation measures should be taken with constant environmental changes. The peroxidases are groups of heme-proteins, which at present are considered the most efficient biocatalysts for the bioremediation of the environment. To overcome the numerous disadvantages of conventional biological remediation methods, peroxidases require a more thorough interpretation for broadly understanding their potential uses in organic transformations as an efficient biocatalyst. Peroxidases are susceptible to the breakdown of polyaromatic hydrocarbons, dyes, pharmaceutical compounds, agrochemicals, phenols, and other highly hazardous organic pollutants found in industrial effluents. In this review, we focus on recent advances in the applications and the efficiency of peroxidases as eco-friendly catalysts.

A Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Cultural Heritage Sites: The Case of the Roman Ruins of Tróia

This article contributes to developing an indicator-based vulnerability assessment framework for cultural heritage sites. It provides a vulnerability index for heritage sites potentially exposed to multiple hazards, including sudden-onset and slow-onset hazards, while considering climate change influences. Through determining particular criteria and indicators, the Cultural Heritage Vulnerability Index incorporates structural and non-structural factors of the heritage site and its local and national settings. The assessment procedure was applied to the case of the Roman Ruins of Tróia in Portugal. The findings highlight those areas of sensitivity (e.g., the existing deterioration patterns and types of foundation) and coping and adaptive capacities (e.g., institutional setting and response plan) that significantly contribute to the level of vulnerability and risk. The results of vulnerability assessment will further enable determining priorities and developing risk mitigation and preparedness measures, in particular reducing structural sensitivity and promoting coping capacities.

Improving tilapia biosecurity through a value chain approach

AbstractTilapia aquaculture is a major source of animal protein, with global production reaching over 6 million tonnes in 2020. The rapid growth of the tilapia sector has led to a number of emerging disease threats and subsequent production losses. Risk analysis can provide a targeted approach for improving biosecurity in the tilapia sector. The aim of this work was to describe the tilapia value chain and review the important infectious agents of tilapia that may affect the different points along the value chain; such points include input and service suppliers, producers (i.e., hatcheries, nurseries and grow‐out farms), and processors, traders and marketers. We then describe how risk analysis can be used to identify critical controls points along the value chain and describe potential risk mitigation measures that may be implemented at those points. The control of diseases of tilapia requires a multi‐faceted approach, with risk‐based control measures chosen based on their feasibility, effectiveness and sustainability. The Progressive Management Pathway for Improving Aquaculture Biosecurity, as a risk‐based, collaborative and progressive management approach combined with the systematic preventive principles of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point, offers a strategic and practical way of improving biosecurity in the tilapia value chain.

Tilapia health: quo vadis?

Tilapia health: <i>quo vadis</i>?

The Impact of Preventive Strategies Adopted during Large Events on the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of the Tokyo Olympics to Provide Guidance for Future Large Events.

This study aimed to analyze the impact of hosting large events on the spread of pandemics, taking Tokyo Olympics 2020 as a case study. A risk assessment method for the whole organization process was established, which could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of various risk mitigation measures. Different scenarios for Games participants and Japanese residents during the Tokyo Olympics were designed based on the infection control protocols proposed by the Olympic Committee and local governments. A modified Wells-Riley model considering the influence of social distance, masking and vaccination, and an SIQRV model that introduced the effect of quarantine and vaccination strategies on the pandemic spread were developed in this study. Based on the two models, our predicted results of daily confirmed cases and cumulative cases were obtained and compared with reported data, where good agreement was achieved. The results show that the two core infection control strategies of the bubble scheme and frequent testing scheme curbed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the Tokyo Olympics. Among Games participants, Japanese local staff accounted for more than 60% of the total in positive cases due to their large population and most relaxed travel restrictions. The surge in positive cases was mainly attributed to the high transmission rate of the Delta variant and the low level of immunization in Japan. Based on our simulation results, the risk management flaws for the Tokyo Olympics were identified and improvement measures were investigated. Moreover, a further analysis was carried out on the impact of different preventive measures with respect to minimizing the transmission of new variants with higher transmissibility. Overall, the findings in this study can help policymakers to design scientifically based and practical countermeasures to cope with pandemics during the hosting of large events.

A Decision Support Tool for Social Engagement, Alternative Financing and Risk Mitigation of Geothermal Energy Projects

This paper presents a decision support tool for promoters/investors of geothermal energy projects, based on a decision tree (DT) structure. The DT aims to assist stakeholders to select public engagement strategies, alternative financing solutions and risk mitigation measures (or options) for geothermal energy projects. Public engagement is necessary for the successful development and operation of geothermal projects. Available studies (including toolkits and protocols) commonly list a set of practices for social engagement without providing information on the factors which render certain options more suitable than others. The presented tool offers a transparent framework to how relevant decisions could be managed by providing a sequence of questions that focus on social, environmental, resource risk, and financial influencing factors and to realise community engagement into geothermal projects. This work is part of the Horizon 2020 CROWDTHERMAL project, which aims at empowering the public to directly participate in the development of geothermal projects through social engagement tools and alternative financing schemes, like crowdfunding.

Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on present and future seismic losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Structural risk-mitigation measures have been shown to significantly reduce earthquake-induced physical damage and casualties in various regions worldwide. However, these benefits remain unknown or inadequately quantified for potential future events in some hazard-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, which this article addresses. The analysis involves modeling an earthquake scenario similar to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (moment magnitude 7.8) and using four exposure inventories representing the current (2021) urban system or near-future (2031) development trajectories that Kathmandu Valley could experience. The results predict substantial losses (€8.2 billion in repair/reconstruction costs and 89,199 fatalities) in 2021 if the building stock’s quality is assumed to have remained the same as in 2011 (Scenario A). However, a partial improvement of the building stock’s quality in the present (Scenario B) can decrease financial losses and fatalities by 17% and 44%, respectively. Moreover, under a “no change” pathway for 2031 (Scenario C), where the quality of the expanding building stock remains the same as in 2011, and the number of buildings is larger to reflect population growth, financial losses and fatalities will increase by 20% and 25% respectively over those of Scenario A. In contrast, further upgrades to the building stock’s quality by 2031 (Scenario D) would reduce financial and human losses by 14% and 54% respectively, relative to those of Scenario A. In addition, the largest financial and human losses computed in the four scenarios are consistently associated with the low- and middle-income population. The main findings of this article can be used to inform decision makers about the benefits of investing in forward-looking seismic risk-mitigation efforts.

How Can Community-Based Organizations Improve Flood Risk Communication? A Case Study of China Based on Grounded Theory

Urban flood risk communication continues to challenge governments. Community-based organizations (CBOs) aim to rapidly detect deficiencies in capacity to deal with flood risk in vulnerable communities and disseminate accessible risk information to assist in the selection and implementation of risk mitigation measures. This paper discusses the methods through which CBO members think their work is beneficial in the response to urban floods. Grounded theory is utilized to guide a mixed-method approach that included semistructured interviews with CBO members (N = 34), participatory observations, and policy document analysis. The findings show that localization of risk knowledge and the emergence of new social networks are important factors in flood risk communication in vulnerable communities. This discovery may highlight the varied aspects of creating community resilience and explain why traditional risk communication is currently unsuccessful. Our findings also shed light on the priorities associated with urban flood risk communication. Only by linking flood risk management to actual livelihoods can we ensure the smooth execution of relevant disaster mitigation measures, especially for vulnerable groups.

Bivalve Shellfish Safety in Portugal: Variability of Faecal Levels, Metal Contaminants and Marine Biotoxins during the Last Decade (2011-2020).

Bivalves are a high-value product whose production has markedly increased, reaching 9863 tonnes in Portugal in 2021. Bivalves' habitats-lagoons, estuaries and coastal waters-are exposed to biological and anthropogenic contaminants, which can bioaccumulate in these organisms and pose a significant public health risk. The need to obtain a safe product for human consumption led to the implementation of standardised hygiene regulations for harvesting and marketing bivalve molluscs, resulting in routine monitoring of bivalve production areas for microbial quality, metal contaminants, and marine biotoxins. While excessive levels of biotoxins and metal contamination lead to temporary harvesting bans, high faecal contamination leads to area reclassification and impose post-harvest treatments. In this study, the seasonal and temporal variability of these parameters were analysed using historical data generated by the monitoring programme during the last decade. Moreover, the impact of the monitoring program on bivalve harvesting from 2011 to 2020 was assessed. This program presented a considerable improvement over time, with an increase in the sampling effort and the overall program representativeness. Finally, contamination risk, revising control measures, and defining recommendations for risk mitigation measures are given in the light of ten years' monitoring.

The FIRE-IN project: Tsunami-risk related practitioner challenges and 3rd cycle overall results

This article summarizes the methodology for the identification of practitioners’ challenges of the H2020 funded project FIRE-IN (Fire and Rescue Innovation Network) activities with a strong focus on the natural hazard mitigation working group and tsunamis in the Mediterranean region as a case study for the 3rd cycle. The scenario of a tsunami occurrence in the Mediterranean is the basis for the FIRE-IN 3rd cycle workshop, as an indicative example of a high impact – low probability event, which aims to identify the Future Common Capability Challenges of practitioners in Europe. The current status of the tsunami hazard in Europe, national and international tsunami risk mitigation measures and procedures and operational experience from recent events are also discussed. Focus is provided on the natural hazard mitigation and tsunami related practitioners’ challenges, while results from the FIRE-IN request for ideas process and the interaction between practitioners, researchers and industry is also discussed. The aim is to present the current and future capability challenges of practitioners, one of the main outcomes of FIRE-IN project, and to provide further guidelines to stakeholders of disaster management towards a safer Europe, mainly, through preparedness for stronger and resilient societies.

Review on risk assessments of dammed lakes

As one type of natural disaster, dammed lakes pose a serious threat to the safety of lives and properties downstream. Scientific risk assessments of dammed lakes are key for pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster rescue. However, due to the lack of basic information and uncertainty surrounding materials and loads, risk assessments of dammed lakes are more complex than those of artificial reservoir dams, and comprehensive assessment methods are lacking. Based on the evolution of dammed lake hazard chains, starting with the concept of a dammed lake risk assessment, this paper focused on six aspects: worldwide dammed lake databases, hazard assessments for landslide dams, breach mechanisms and breach processes, flood routing after landslide dam breaching, loss assessments, and risk mitigation measures. A comprehensive review was conducted on the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods around the world, as well as future outlooks.