Principles Of Risk Assessment Research Articles

Rules of river avulsion change downstream.

Avulsing rivers create new pathways on the floodplain and the associated flooding can profoundly affect society1-4. River avulsions are thought to occur when the water column becomes perched above the floodplain5 or when the slope down the flanks of the channel provides a steeper descent than the existing river channel6,7. We test these classical ideas by quantifying the topography around avulsing rivers and show that these mechanisms, historically invoked separately, work together. Near coasts, rivers avulse when the slope away from the channel is steeper, not because they are perched. The opposite is true near mountain fronts; on fans, the alternative paths are similarly steep to the downstream path, so rivers avulse when they are perched above the surrounding landscape. We reconcile these findings and present a new theoretical framework that identifies which rivers are vulnerable to avulsion and predicts the path of an avulsing river. These first-order rules of avulsion suggest that avulsion risks are underestimated in many coastal environments8 and that probabilistic predictions of avulsion pathfinding can efficiently map hazards with minimal information. Applying these principles for risk assessment could particularly benefit the Global South, which is disproportionately affected by avulsions.

Principles for Robust Cumulative Risk Assessment

Principles for Robust Cumulative Risk Assessment

Combined simulation on pesticides fate, toxicities and ecological risk in rice paddies for Sustainable Development Goals achievements

In order to assess the risk of pesticides to aquatic ecosystems, five single-dose pesticides including chlorpyrifos, pymetrozine, dinotefuran, azoxystrobin, and acetochlor that are frequently used in developing countries, were selected. Based on the principle of conservative risk assessment, application amounts for different dosage forms were recommended, the Top-Rice model and risk quotient method were used to evaluate the aquatic ecological risk of the aforementioned single-dose pesticide products. The results showed that predicted peak environmental concentration ranges after application on rice were 110.52–564.25 μg/L for chlorpyrifos, 20.79–114.6 μg/L for pymetrozine, 21.81–114.02 μg/L for dinotefuran, 16.52–56.94 μg/L for azoxystrobin, and 167.22–2184.01 μg/L for acetochlor in different seasons of Changsha, Hangzhou, Nanning in China, and Lahore and Faisalabad in Pakistan. Under the current conditions of registered administration, the acute and chronic risks posed by chlorpyrifos to fish and invertebrates were deemed alarming, and those by pymetrozine and dinotefuran were considered acceptable. The acute risk of exposure of azoxystrobin to vertebrates such as fish, and invertebrates such as daphnia and shrimp is alarming, whereas the chronic risk to vertebrates, invertebrates, and algae was acceptable. The acute exposure risk posed by acetochlor was deemed worrying, and in the case of chronic exposure, only 36 % of the simulation group exhibited a risk quotient below 1, indicating no risk. These findings imply that the ecological risks of using registered chlorpyrifos and acetochlor products on rice cannot be ignored. It should be noted that the analysis method and model employed in this study were intentionally conservative to ensure a comprehensive assessment of the potential risks associated with the use of registered pesticide products. However, the model failed to consider influential factors like photolysis of pesticides on the soil surface, thereby introducing a certain degree of conservativeness in the evaluation results.

The Principles of Evaluating the Risk of Rock and Gas Outburst in Copper Ore Mines

AbstractRock and gas outburst is one of the most significant natural hazards faced by the mining industry. In the last decade, this issue has appeared in firm rock mining (including copper ore mines) in addition to coal mining. A number of methods have been developed for coal mining to assess the hazard posed by gasogeodynamic phenomena, but in the case of copper ore mines, no studies have led to forecasts of this risk. To face the challenge, the authors decided to propose their own concept of risk assessment principles based on a threshold analysis of the phenomenon and a continuous analysis using fuzzy logic. A series of tests were performed to support the paper, investigating selected parameters which directly affect the risk. The evaluation principles for gasogeodynamic phenomena presented herein were the result of experimental investigations carried out by the authors.

SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FOR TUNNELS REGARDING THE TRANSPORT OF DANGEROUS GOODS (ADR)

<p class="ABSTRACT"><span class="rynqvb"><span lang="EN" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN;">EU Tunnel Directive 2004/54/EC aims to ensure a minimum level of safety for users in road tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network. EU member states are required to develop, at national level, their own detailed methodology for tunnel risk assessment. Along with that, ADR as the UN regulation in the field of dangerous good transportation by road, contains provisions concerning restrictions on the passage of vehicles carrying dangerous goods in road tunnels. Tunnel category A-E is assigned to each tunnel on the transport route, which regulate the types of dangerous goods to be allowed to go through the tunnel in order to avoid any hazards with major consequences. In this paper, basic principles of risk assessment and categorization of tunnels in accordance.</span></span></p>

Artificial intelligence in accounting

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies open up broad horizons for enhancing business efficiency and advancing various professional domains, boosting their productivity and compe­titiveness. There is an active exploration of approaches to incorporating AI technologies in the accounting sphere, promising a seamless transition from human to machine involvement. The aim of this article is to summarize the acquired experience, identify perspectives, constraints, and risks associated with the use of AI technologies in the professional activities of accountants. The research is based on the hypothesis that widespread use of AI in the professional activity of an accountant with an insufficient level of professional skepticism and caution carries significant threats and risks for both the accountant and the business as a whole. Scientific search methods, comparative and critical analysis, theoretical generalization, and synthesis were used. A prerequisite for imple­menting AI technologies in accounting is expert information systems and ERP systems. The analysis of AI technology implementation experience in various industries demonstrates their relevance in the accounting field for performing routine tasks (automated recognition of primary documents, processing incoming signals, and other standard operations with a simultaneous reduction in the probability of errors), analyzing large datasets, and providing information support for decision-making (pro­ces­sing business data and regulatory docu­ments), training professionals, and organi­zing internal and external communication (parti­cularly between humans and machines). Identi­fied potential risks include breaches of privacy and data security, misinterpretation of output data, and the disregard of activity context, external and internal environments, especially due to the absence of emotional intelligence, which influences the trust level in integrated information systems. The requirement for the application of professional assessments and judgments, mandated by regulatory documents, limits the scope of AI technology utilization in accounting. Future research should focus on exploring the possibilities of widespread integ­ration of AI technologies in information systems for accounting and improving legislation based on the principle of risk assessment.

Assessment of suicide risk in people with borderline personality disorder: a qualitative analysis of risk protocols

ABSTRACT Objective The prominence of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts and death by suicide among people diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) underscores the importance of conducting relevant and informative risk assessment. The purpose of this study was to examine risk assessment protocols used in state public mental health services to assess whether and in what manner they include factors specific to suicidality/self-harm risk in people with BPD. Method A qualitative evaluation of risk assessment protocols from nine of the thirteen (70%) of Victoria’s public mental health was undertaken. Content analysis methodology was utilised to identify themes and compare these to recommendations for risk assessment of BPD as outlined in Australian clinical guidelines Results The risk assessment protocols comprised suicide risk factors generally relevant to psychiatric disorders. Only one protocol incorporated BPD-specific risk assessment principles. Conclusions Fully incorporating BPD-specific risk factors into mental health service risk assessment protocols will better inform service responses and potentially improve clinical outcomes for people with BPD whose presentation includes chronic suicidality and/or high lethality non-suicidal self-injury.

Unravelling the Risk of Poisoning From Nicotine-Containing Tobacco Products in Children Less Than Five Years of Age.

For decades, young children in the United States have been accidentally poisoned by traditional tobacco products and the yearly incidence has slowly increased. More poisonings have accompanied the introduction of new products such as e-cigarettes and dissolvable tobacco, with renewed public attention. Using toxicological principles of human health risk assessment, published data from prior exposures, and information about the content and characteristics of specific products, I estimated the acute toxicological risk from exposure to various types and quantities of tobacco products for children <5 years old. Approximate reference levels for a non-lethal oral dose of nicotine were derived: A higher level potentially requiring medical care (0.2mg per kg) and a lower level not potentially requiring medical care (0.04mg per kg). A weight-based oral lowest lethal dose (LDLO) of 1-14mg per kg in children <5 years old is estimated from the cited LDLOs in adults. I provide tables relating e-liquid concentration and volume to the oral LDLO in children <5years old by weight and describing the amount of other tobacco products expected to result in lethality. Communications about safe storage practices should focus on the benefits of keeping any nicotine-containing product out of the reach of young children, and adults can be reminded to always reengage child-resistant closures on packages and call a poison center for accidental exposures. Healthcare providers, families, or any member of the public can also make reports about unexpected health or safety concerns related to tobacco products to the FDA using its online Safety Reporting Portal at https://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/PublicHealthScienceResearch/ucm377563.htm. Tobacco products, particularly electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) liquids are highly toxic to children <5 years old in small amounts. Given that the concentration of nicotine in ENDS is 3 to 72mg per mL, the lethal dose (LDLO) is expected to be 13-40mL in a bottle containing a solution of 3mg per mL liquid nicotine but may be as low as ½-2mL in a bottle containing a highly concentrated solution of 72mg per mL liquid nicotine. Features such as flow restrictors, child-resistant closures, and communication of safe storage practices to parents can help to lessen the morbidity and mortality from poisoning.

Suivi longitudinal des patients psychiatriques médico-légaux : focus sur les taux de récidive et les scores de risque

Research concerning the follow-up of forensic patients after their release from a high-security facility into the community is scarce. However, results available indicate that revocation rates are rather high. Our research aimed to answer three aspects based on an analysis of court records of 168 patients discharged from a Belgian secure forensic psychiatric hospital between 2014 and 2018: (1) the revocation and recidivism rates during a 3-year follow-up period; (2) the prevalence and motives for revocations of probationary released; (3) the comparison of scores of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) between three release measures. To our knowledge, our study is the first to compare violent recidivism risk scores between release types. The mean VRAG-R scores were higher among revoked than conditioned released patients. The latter presented higher mean score than definitively released patients. The overall results are congruent with the “good practice” of the risk principle, hence supporting the importance of basing release decisions on risk assessment principles such as the VRAG-R in a longitudinal perspective.

Managing Risk When Working with Orbiviruses with a Special Emphasis on Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus.

Risk assessment is the cornerstone of working safely with biological agents. The World Health Organization (WHO) Laboratory Biosafety Manual Fourth Edition Monograph on Risk Assessment provides stepwise guidance for completing a risk assessment, from information gathering and identifying hazards to evaluating the risks, developing, and implementing controls and review.To support the development of a mature safety culture within laboratories, it is important that all staff who handle biological agents understand the fundamentals of risk assessment and receive training in identifying hazards created by their work activities (or tasks) and understand how to mitigate the risks arising from carrying out that work. Any "competent" person may be involved in assessing the risks posed by carrying out an activity. Those closest to the work, who understand the details of the task being undertaken, should be involved in creating the risk assessment. The guidance in this chapter is not just applicable to biosafety professionals, laboratory scientists, or facility managers but can be used by any competent worker familiar with the activity being assessed.This chapter uses the guidance from the WHO to apply the principles of risk assessment to working with Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), using an example activity-virus isolation from EHDV test samples in cell culture.

Supply Chain Resilience Meets Quality Management

Purpose: This study is aimed at supply chain resilience and quality management, which are critical in today's volatile global economy marked by various disruptions. The focus is on how these traditionally separate disciplines can be combined to enhance organizational performance.&#x0D; &#x0D; Theoretical framework: The theoretical framework revolves around the concepts of supply chain resilience, which includes elements like proactive risk assessment, adaptability, collaborative networks, strategic redundancies, and quality management principles. The research scrutinizes their interplay, revealing significant overlap and implications for organizational outcomes.&#x0D; &#x0D; Design/Methodology/Approach: An exploratory case study approach forms the core methodology, primarily utilizing secondary data to gain insights into real-world scenarios. This approach enables a deep understanding of the critical factors influencing supply chain resilience and the impact of quality management concepts on customer satisfaction and product/service quality in supply chain processes. The questionnaire is distributed to get insights into the company's practices.&#x0D; &#x0D; Findings: The findings indicate that integrating supply chain resilience with quality management leads to more sustained and improved organizational outcomes. A resilient supply chain is quicker to recover from disruptions, minimizing financial impacts. Concurrently, a steadfast focus on quality ensures customer satisfaction and loyalty. This integration offers synergistic benefits, contributing to operational efficiency, market competitiveness, and a more substantial brand reputation.&#x0D; &#x0D; Research, Practical &amp; Social implications: The study provides insights into critical factors of supply chain resilience and their interconnections with quality management concepts. These insights can inform strategies for enhancing resilience and quality management in supply chains. Practically, the study offers a guide for organizations to adopt a unified approach that optimizes supply chain resilience and quality management. This approach is particularly relevant for organizations seeking to improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction through better risk management and quality assurance processes. Socially, the study highlights the importance of resilient and high-quality supply chains in today’s business landscape by maintaining Sustainable Developmental Goals.&#x0D; &#x0D; Originality/Value: This research highlights how resilience, characterized by adaptability and robust recovery in disruptive scenarios, and stringent quality management, crucial for meeting customer expectations, are fundamental in modern supply chains. The study emphasizes the importance of a risk management culture and the role of digital technologies in enhancing supply chain resilience, underscoring their vital contributions during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, this work offers valuable insights into achieving more resilient and high-quality supply chains in today's challenging business environment through the integration of Quality Management Tools.

A Qualitative Investigation of Space Exploration Medical Evacuation Risks.

INTRODUCTION: Exploration beyond low Earth orbit requires innovative solutions to support the crew medically, especially as the opportunity for timely evacuation to Earth diminishes. This includes assessing the risks and benefits that a complicated medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) poses to the injured crewmember, the crew, and the mission. This qualitative study identifies common MEDEVAC risk assessment principles used in spaceflight and other extreme environments to better inform future risk assessment tools and exploration mission concepts.METHODS: Semistructured interviews were conducted with subject matter experts in spaceflight and analog domains, including polar operations, undersea operations, combat medicine, and mountaineering. Transcripts were analyzed using the qualitative method of Thematic Analysis with the technique of consensus, co-occurrence, and comparison.RESULTS: Subject matter experts described 18 themes divided into two main categories: Primary Risk Considerations (e.g., crew, mission, resources, time) and Contributing Factors (e.g., psychological considerations, medical preparation, politics).DISCUSSION: Primary Risk Considerations can assess MEDEVAC risk across mission phases, with Contributing Factors acting as premission tools to adjust those risks. Inter- and intracategory connections identified medical support considerations, MEDEVAC support considerations, and philosophy as the most impactful Contributing Factors. Medical support considerations, psychological considerations, and political considerations were found to have unique aspects given the distances and societal impact of exploration vs. low Earth orbit spaceflight. The Contributing Factor theme of decision making was determined to be unique due to its impacts across both categories. These findings expand current considerations and are important inputs for exploration mission MEDEVAC Concepts of Operations.Almand A, Ko SY, Anderson A, Keller RJ, Zero M, Anderson AP, Laws JM, Lehnhardt K, Easter BD. A qualitative investigation of space exploration medical evacuation risks. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2023; 94(12):875-886.

Training in modern statistical methodologies and software tools for the definition and analysis of (stochastic) quantitative microbial risk assessment models with a comparison between the Hungarian and Spanish food supply chains.

Human pathogenic Salmonella enterica strains have been infecting people since historical times. The original human pathogens, typhoid Salmonella strains (e.g. S. Typhi) played a huge role in the previous centuries but nowadays in the developed world the number of cases or outbreaks caused by these serotypes deceased due to the development of personal and public hygiene. Nowadays in these regions the animal-borne zoonotic serotypes (e.g. S. Enteritidis) became more important because of their high prevalence in intensive animal husbandry. But these bacteria can also appear in fruits and vegetables. The fellow joined the scientific work of the Polytechnic University of Cartagena, Spain about the safety of plant-based products, where he could gain experience in microbiological laboratory exercises and theoretical calculations of statistics and modelling. The activities in the laboratory were part of the research lines already established at the host institution, being based on the protocols they have already implemented. Nonetheless, the fellow had the opportunity to design his own experiment, do the experimental work required and analysed the data within the context of a qualitative microbiological risk assessment. The main focus was on the heat resistance of two strains of zoonotic Salmonella spp. at different temperatures. Experiments were done using a reference strain and an extremely resistant variant to evaluate this rare phenotype. The experiments were executed using a Mastia thermoresistometer, a device patented by the host institution that provides more control when studying thermal treatments than traditional methods. The data was analysed using the principles of predictive microbiology, using the D-value as an estimate of heat resistance that provides insight into the bacterial behaviour. For this, the fellow used the bioinactivation software, developed within the host group. Through the work and results the fellow learned the principles of quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) and predictive microbiology, which was the aim for the EU-FORA programme.

SAT433 Improving The Risk Assessment Procedures For Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals Affecting Thyroid Homeostasis: A Scoping Study

Abstract Disclosure: C. La Motta: None. This project aims at improving the risk assessment procedure currently adopted for the endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), focusing in particular on those contained in food contact materials and articles and affecting thyroid homeostasis. EDCs generally display a complex toxicity profile, thus making toxicological evaluation and health risk assessment difficult to achieve. The current standardized methods are rather insufficient to identify and test their complex toxicity, and the application of traditional risk assessment principles may be problematic for this kind of substances. This issue is even more crucial when ECDs are part of food contact materials and articles, which are commonly used by the whole population. The increasingly wider distribution of these products on the global market raised the exposure of consumers to chemical agents on constant and cumulative basis, even for persistent compounds, highlighting the urgency of governing the matter. A number of lists including chemicals exploited for the manufacture of food contact materials and articles have been drawn up by international regulators and public and private bodies. However, besides far from being harmonized, they do not provide systematic information regarding thyroid disrupting properties. Actually, the awareness of science on the thyroid safety profile of compounds intentionally used in the food planet is still limited and fragmented, thus requiring an intensive research activity to fill the existing knowledge gap. We carried out a thoroughly survey of the available databases of chemicals for food contact materials and articles, selecting sixteen EDCs characterized by a high level of uncertainty concerning the toxicological profile and/or dearth of information on human exposure data. The selected compounds should be now investigated by making use of both computational tools and in vitro and in vivo studies, to ascertain their adverse thyroid effects. The resulting outcomes will allow to achieve a reliable risk assessment for the benefit of entire population. Presentation: Saturday, June 17, 2023

Rail and road infrastructure: cross-modal safety risk evaluation and assessment principles

We explore the similarities and differences between the governing Risk Evaluation and Assessment (REA) principles for rail and road infrastructure. We frame our analysis with infrastructure managers in mind. In England, Network Rail and National Highways are the key rail and road infrastructure managers, respectively. The intention is to demonstrate that seemingly unrelated rail and road infrastructure upgrade projects are not that different – at least from the REA point of view. By breaking the potential REA barriers between the two modes, a number of benefits can be realised across the project lifecycle and beyond. Safely allowing the space for future change and innovation is a key guiding principle. Our findings point towards ‘systems thinking’ where rail and road can be approached as a single system – at least from the REA activities point of view. At a project level, this means that there are potentially many unexplored synergies between the two sectors. This may not only be in terms of safety, but also in terms of managing capital expenditure and operational expenditure and efficiencies. Future work would concentrate on drawing parallels between rail and road REA approaches for operating companies (and vehicles) to support our ‘Systems Thinking’ vision.

Use of risk assessment and predictive microbiology in regulatory science related to the scientific opinions of the EFSA BIOHAZ Panel

EFSA's Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ Panel) deals with questions on biological hazards relating to food safety and food-borne diseases. This covers food-borne zoonoses, transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, antimicrobial resistance, food microbiology, food hygiene, animal-by products, and associated waste management issues. The scientific assessments are diverse and frequently the development of new methodological approaches is required to deal with a mandate. Among the many risk factors, product characteristics (pH, water activity etc.), time and temperature of processing and storage along the food supply chain are highly relevant for assessing the biological risks. Therefore, predictive microbiology becomes an essential element of the assessments. Uncertainty analysis is incorporated in all BIOHAZ scientific assessments, to meet the general requirement for transparency. Assessments should clearly and unambiguously state what sources of uncertainty have been identified and their impact on the conclusions of the assessment. Four recent BIOHAZ Scientific Opinions are presented to illustrate the use of predictive modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment principles in regulatory science. The Scientific Opinion on the guidance on date marking and related food information, gives a general overview on the use of predictive microbiology for shelf-life assessment. The Scientific Opinion on the efficacy and safety of high-pressure processing of food provides an example of inactivation modelling and compliance with performance criteria. The Scientific Opinion on the use of the so-called ‘superchilling’ technique for the transport of fresh fishery products illustrates the combination of heat transfer and microbial growth modelling. Finally, the Scientific Opinion on the delayed post-mortem inspection in ungulates, shows how variability and uncertainty, were quantitatively embedded in assessing the probability of Salmonella detection on carcasses, via stochastic modelling and expert knowledge elicitation.

Perceptions of community risk assessment and challenges to implementation

Quick, easy access to data-driven community risk assessment principles and to related community risk reduction activities can encourage fire departments to learn about, conduct, and complete district risk reduction practices. With the ultimate goal of creating web-based community risk assessment and community risk reduction resources, we first evaluated fire department needs. Over an eight-month period, a quantitative online survey was administered to officers from 45 unique fire departments in 44 Kentucky counties, with follow-up qualitative telephone interviews administered to 11 fire officials. Mixed-methods, sequential analysis of the data clarified the “what,” “who,” and “how” of risk analysis/reduction activities, noted what specific reduction activities departments used to prepare for and mitigate risk, and named specific facilitators and barriers to risk assessment and reduction. Respondents described data use for community risk assessment and for planning community risk reduction activities; how a lack of time, personnel, and funding impacts community risk assessment and community risk reduction activities; and how to involve both firefighters and the community in the process. Innovative solutions such as a website containing resources on how to assess community risk information along with resources such as community risk assessment/ reduction education, program planning, and tools, can assist departments to use community risk assessment data in the development of community risk reduction activities.

Quality by Design approach for a planar chromatographic method for simultaneous estimation of Ivabradine Hydrochloride and Carvedilol in pharmaceutical formulation

AbstractBox‐Behnken design was applied for the development of a novel, precise, simple, and accurate high‐performance thin‐layer chromatography method for simultaneous estimation of mentioned drugs in the formulation. Optimization was performed using Quality by Design. Principles of risk assessment followed by application of design for optimization of chromatographic conditions to determine critical parameters: volume of hexane, chamber saturation time, solvent front and their effects on critical method attributes: Rf values of both drugs. Optimized conditions were determined through Derringer's desirability approach of the multi‐criteria decision‐making technique. Good resolution using optimized mobile phase, hexane:ethyl acetate:ammonium acetate in methanol (5.1:3:2) with Rf values 0.34 and 0.67 for Ivabradine Hydrochloride and Carvedilol, respectively, was obtained. The method was validated as per International Council on Harmonization having a linear range of 1000–5000 ng/band of Ivabradine and 1250–6250 ng/band for Carvedilol, respectively. %Recovery was in range of 99.23–101.3 and 99.8–100.5, respectively. Precision and robustness were found to be in an acceptable range. Thus, Quality by Design based method development assisted in making design space with knowledge of all method performance characteristics with a better understanding of high‐performance thin‐layer chromatography. The Analytical GREEnness profile was assessed using AGREE tool with an overall reliable score of 0.68.

Risk Ranking of Chemical and Microbiological Hazards in Foods ‐ Research Project and International Workshop

The purpose of this project was to improve the ability to perform risk ranking of current chemical and microbiological hazards in foods. The work was performed in three work packages (WPs) comprising an overview of chemical and microbiological risk assessment (WP1), development of methods for risk ranking (WP2), and the organisation of an international workshop (WP3). The developmental work consisted of 1) a method for chemical hazards that was also adapted for newer toxicological effect data, and 2) an exposure model applicable to both types of hazards in its design. Conclusions at the workshop included that risk ranking fundamentally would provide added support to risk management and risk communication. Both probability and severity of a health effect was regarded to be relevant to incorporate in the metric used for risk ranking. Measures of health burden were regarded as useful by many participants but there was no consensus on the most preferable metric. The value of other metrics, including less data intensive ones, was also noted. While risk ranking should be based on risk assessment principles, management aspects would ultimately need to be considered on top of this. Participants were positive to a joint framework for both chemical and microbiological hazards, but several challenges were identified. In the face of a general lack of desired data it was regarded to be important to make efficient use of the available information, and it may be advantageous if methods are compatible with different sets of evidence. It is recommended that the common metric for risk ranking is further resolved in terms of what aspects it should account for, the usefulness of particular or different metrics, as well as the concept of a tiered approach. Development of an overarching guidance for risk ranking addressing the many types of rankings possible is proposed.

An integrated risk assessment method for cross-regional mega construction projects

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a novel integrated risk assessment method from the system perspective to evaluate the risk of the cross-regional mega construction project (CMCP). Furthermore, this paper aims to confirm the core risk source factors and refine the risk management strategies of CMCPs through a case study.Design/methodology/approachBased on the analysis of the risk system of CMCPs, the concept model and risk assessment principles of integrated risk assessment were confirmed. The risk source factors and project objectives of the CMCP were identified from a literature review, export interview and case analysis. According to the vulnerability theory, the integrated risk assessment model was developed by involving vulnerabilities, threats, objectives and interaction of those factors synthetically. Then, ZW high-speed railway from China was analyzed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.FindingsAs a result, 12 threat factors and 12 vulnerability factors were identified. Based on the case study, the main external threat comes from T13 (conflicts of interest between local governments) and T23 (harsh natural environment); the most easily exploited internal vulnerabilities were V11 (complexity of technology), V13 (lack of experience in technical application), V21 (inadequate experience) and V23 (lack of interest coordination mechanism). Moreover, the economic objective was most affected.Practical implicationsIt is essential to develop an interest coordination mechanism for CMCPs. The harsh natural environment is a critical factor, but it also promotes technological innovation and iteration. Public opinions in different regions are critical for CMCPs, and more emphasis should be placed on public opinion surveys of CMCPs. Moreover, diverse and flexible environmental protection strategies should apply in CMCPs.Originality/valueThis research has the following three contributions. First, based on vulnerability theory, an integrated risk assessment approach of CMCPs is developed, which enriches the risk measurement method system and provides inspiration for future research on risk in the construction industry. Second, the risk sources of CMCPs are identified from the perspective of vulnerability and threat to provide clear guidance for the risk management of CMCPs. Third, the core risk source factors and management strategies confirmed by the case study will be beneficial for various governments in different regions and project managers to optimize the project management scheme, as they are transferable management experiences.