Rise In Exports Research Articles

Does Difference in Environmental Standard Influence India’s Bilateral IIT Flows? Evidence from GMM Results

In the recent past, India has entered into several regional trading agreements (RTAs) with the objective of export promotion, on the one hand, and deepening participation in the global value chains, on the other. The consequent rise in Indian exports had been accompanied by a simultaneous import growth, given the trade preferences for partners through RTAs as well as ongoing unilateral tariff reforms. The rise in simultaneous exports and imports has enhanced the country’s intra-industry trade (IIT) level. Recently, India has engaged in RTA negotiations with several developed countries, which are characterized by more stringent environmental standards. The current analysis attempts to identify factors that influence India’s bilateral aggregate IIT index in a dynamic panel framework. In particular, it attempts to assess whether greater divergence in environmental standards adversely influence India’s IIT patterns. The empirical estimates reveal that India’s IIT is found to be relatively higher with countries that are technologically more advanced and have relatively stringent environmental standards. The observation indicates that India is possibly specializing in relatively low technology-intensive products vis-à-vis its developed trade partners. The analysis concludes that India would be better off by facilitating innovation and adhering to a higher level of environmental standard. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15, F18

Analysis of agricultural exports based on deep learning and text mining.

Agricultural exports are an important source of economic profit for many countries. Accurate predictions of a country’s agricultural exports month on month are key to understanding a country’s domestic use and export figures and facilitate advance planning of export, import, and domestic use figures and the resulting necessary adjustments of production and marketing. This study proposes a novel method for predicting the rise and fall of agricultural exports, called agricultural exports time series-long short-term memory (AETS-LSTM). The method applies Jieba word segmentation and Word2Vec to train word vectors and uses TF-IDF and word cloud to learn news-related keywords and finally obtain keyword vectors. This research explores whether the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of each industry can effectively use the AETS-LSTM model to predict the rise and fall of agricultural exports. Research results show that the inclusion of keyword vectors in the PMI values of the finance and insurance industries has a relative impact on the prediction of the rise and fall of agricultural exports, which can improve the prediction accuracy for the rise and fall of agricultural exports by 82.61%. The proposed method achieves improved prediction ability for the chemical/biological/medical, transportation equipment, wholesale, finance and insurance, food and textiles, basic materials, education/professional, science/technical, information/communications/broadcasting, transportation and storage, retail, and electrical and machinery equipment categories, while its performance for the electrical and optical categories shows improved prediction by combining keyword vectors, and its accuracy for the accommodation and food service, and construction and real estate industries remained unchanged. Therefore, the proposed method offers improved prediction capacity for agricultural exports month on month, allowing agribusiness operators and policy makers to evaluate and adjust domestic and foreign production and sales.

Nexus between exports, imports and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Bangladesh

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a significant role in international trade (IT). Numerous recent studies focused on the FDI-IT nexus and found a strong interrelation between the two variables. The current research empirically examines the causal linkage among imports, exports, and FDI in Bangladesh, utilizing available time-series data from 1980-2015. The study finds that the long-run equilibrium association exists among Exports, Imports and FDI. The study also finds unidirectional causality running from imports and exports to FDI, meaning the rise and fall of exports and imports cause an increase or decrease in FDI of Bangladesh, respectively, and there is no other long-run causality found among other variables. In the short run, unilateral causality is running from imports to FDI, imports to export and exports to FDI. These empirical findings mean that expanding trade can be used to attract more FDI in Bangladesh. Therefore, the study findings strongly support the notion that international trade (exports and imports) stem from the attraction of FDI. IIUC Business Review Vol. 10, Dec. 2021 pp. 25-42

Rebooting and Rejuvenating India’s External Sector Post-Pandemic

Abstract The integration of Indian economy through the channels of trade and capital flow has been accelerated over the last two decades. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, policy stimulus continued to promote export-led growth in the economy. These decadal efforts to retain the exiting market share and capturing the new market continues to face number of challenges for India. India is presently known as one of the most important players in the global economic landscape. After the US-China trade war scenes, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has questioned China’s integrity across many countries of the world. When developed countries thinking over shifting their manufacturing base out of China, attracting this large chunk of capital flight has challenged Indian government. Data shows that the aggressive policy measures taken by both the central and state government to tap the crowding out of investment from China apparently succeeding. But this is a short-term picture, will it continue in the long-run? That is questionable. The ‘Make in India’ or ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiatives, export-led growth policy stimulus during pandemic, rise in exports of food products, generic medicines, newly entered FDIs and flood of FIIs in Indian economy. All these dots need to be connected at the backdrop of India’s New Foreign Trade Policy (2021-26). This research paper would like to focus on each one of the above mentioned initiatives by the Indian government and its significance to the entire trade policy as such. Paper would also like to consider the sustainability part of these initiatives.

The US–Ireland–India in the catch-up cycles in IT services: MNCs, indigenous capabilities and the roles of macroeconomic variables

This study attempts to explain successive changes in industrial leadership in IT services by employing the catch-up cycle theory developed by Lee and Malerba (Res Policy 46(2):338–351, 2017). A catch-up cycle was observed in which leadership have changed from the US to Ireland and subsequently to India. Currently, there is now a `coexistent leadership` in which both India and Ireland share the leadership position since Ireland has recently recovered some of its market shares. The research has two main contributions: First, it has introduced macroeconomic variables into the catch-up cycle framework and exposed that the over-reliance of Ireland on MNCs made their leadership less sustainable and more sensitive to macroeconomic variations, and thus, argued that wage rate, exchange rate and FDI were important explanatory variables to understand the rise, fall and re-rise of Irish IT service exports. Second, it is shown that India has been more effective in maintaining a leadership position by developing strong indigenous companies, a sectoral system of innovation and through better technological capabilities. Therefore, it brings an important contribution in terms of public policies and catch-up strategies.

Population Aging and International Monetary Transmission

This paper shows, using a three-country life-cycle model, that a contractionary U.S. monetary policy shock has weaker effects on output in an old country than in a young country. In response to the shock, despite a larger fall in consumption in the old country, investment there decreases by less and net exports rise by more, which enables output in the old country to decline by less. I then empirically show that the shock brings about a smaller fall in output and a greater rise in net exports in old countries using VARs, and that the shock leads to a larger fall in consumption and a smaller decrease in investment in old countries using the local projection method. The stronger incentives to save in the old country due to the longer life expectancy play a key role in generating these results.

The impact of the Eurasian Economic Union–Iran preferential trade agreement on mutual trade at aggregate and sectoral levels

In October 2019, the preferential trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Iran entered into force. In the present study, we estimated its expected impact on mutual trade flows at aggregate and sectoral levels using the gravity model of trade based on the global sample of bilateral trade flows at the harmonized system six-digit level. The analysis suggested that the implementation of the agreement will boost mutual trade for both trading partners, with relatively greater gains expected for the EAEU’s exports to Iran. The total gains in mutual trade were estimated to reach over USD 72 million, with exports from the EAEU to Iran anticipated to increase by 19.1%, compared with a rise in exports from Iran to the EAEU of up to 7%. The difference in the impact is highly heterogeneous across the five EAEU countries and across sectors. The major export gains are estimated to accrue in the agri-food sectors—especially, trade in miscellaneous fruits and vegetables—and in the chemicals, textile, polymer production and selected electrical and machinery manufacturing sectors.

From Nordic Noir to Belgian Bright?

Shifts in audio-visual production, distribution and consumption have increased pressure on broadcasters as main financiers of domestic content in Europe. However, within the context of internationalisation and digitalisation, there are also new opportunities for the export of European content. By taking a close look at the evolution and increasing popularity of Flemish TV drama, this article identifies key explanatory factors for the export of content produced in a small media market. The analysis also discusses the extent to which the rise in exports may contribute to the increased sustainability of a small and fragile, yet vibrant audio-visual industry.

The economic impact of CPTPP on Vietnam’s fisheries exports to CPTPP region

The study evaluates the overall situation of Vietnam’s fisheries exports and uses the Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy model (the GSIM model) to predict the impact of the CPTPP agreement on Vietnam’s fisheries exports to the CPTPP members. It is forecasted that the CPTPP has positive effects on Vietnam’s fisheries exports. One of those is that it is promising for Vietnamese producers/exporters to access Mexico, which is a large market in the southern portion of North America. In addition, Vietnam has the advantage to continue increasing export earnings to the Japanese market after the CPTPP takes effect. By sub-sector, all sub-sectors have a positive impact on consumers/importers as well as producers/exporters. In terms of export value, all sub-sectors have increased export value, especially the Crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates, prepared or preserved (HS1605) export to Japan and the fish fillets and other fish meat (whether or not minced), fresh, chilled or frozen (HS0304) has significant export rise to Mexico. Nevertheless, the reduction of import tax revenues reduces the welfare of the fisheries sector.

Geographical indications in the wine industry: does it matter for South Africa?

Purpose This paper aims to assess the impact of protected geographical indications (GIs) on the trade performance of South Africa’s wine industry within the European Union (EU). This is critical in enhancing informed policy decisions towards securing more GIs for wines and other products. The unearthed evidence may provide a basis for more government interventions in support of the initiative while protecting the good reputation in communities where production occurs. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the gravity flow model framework. The Rand value of wine exports was used as a trade performance measure whereas GIs data was extracted from the E-Bacchus database, and three proxies are used to capture the GIs variable. Findings GIs foster South Africa’s wine exports into the EU. When GIs were proxied as a dummy variable, results suggest that GIs led to about 170% increase in wine exports. However, when the actual number of GIs was used, the estimate also indicates 0.7% rise in exports, whereas using the difference between South Africa’s and the EU’s number of GIs, results suggest that GIs are associated with 87% increase in wine exports. Research limitations/implications This paper did not take into consideration protected designation of origins (PDOs) on the side of the Europe given that South Africa has no registered PDOs. Further research at industry level should be undertaken to ascertain whether some of South Africa’s wine meets the specifications required to register as a PDO. Originality/value This paper adds empirical evidence to the existing literature on the competitiveness of South Africa’s wine industry. The role of GIs in international markets remains a silent feature in the literature yet the industry exhibits an outstanding footprint in GIs. This paper, in part, responds to Biénabe and Marie-Vivien’s (2017) recognition for the need for interdisciplinary empirical analyses to better understand the GI concept. To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to analyse the impact of GIs on the industry’s trade performance.

A Critical Appraisal of the Import Demand Literature

Increased globalization has led to an increase in interdependence among countries at the world level. Substantial reduction in trade restrictions and the implementation of WTO rules contributed to a rise in exports and imports of most developing countries. But the study of imports in comparison to that of exports is considered more important for the fact that the production for exports requires imports in the first place. By explaining and reviewing the methodologies the study aims to identify the research gaps prevalent in the area and provide a direction for future research. It has been found that panel data techniques have not found that place in the literature as the time series techniques have so there is a need for application of the same.

Pengaruh GDP, Ekspor dan Investasi Terhadap Inflasi di Lima Negara Anggota IDB

The aims of this study is to find out how much influence GDP, exports and investment have on inflation in the five IDB member countries, namely Guinea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and Jordan. The results obtained by using a quantitative analysis of panel data re-sultations resulted that there was an influence of GDP, exports and investment on inflation but not significantly to these five IDB member countries. Many outlier factors also influenced one of them because the interest-free economy began to be implemented. This study wants to observe what factors influence inflation in the country of Guinea which is one of the IDB member countries that has the poorest characteristics among other countries. The results obtained using quantitative analysis methods of multiple linear regression panel data and classical assumptions produced that the three independent variables affect the dependent variable but not significant. Where the relationship between DGP and inflation is positive, meaning that if GDP rises, inflation also rises. While the relationship between exports and investment to inflation is negative. This means that if exports rise, inflation will decrease and if investment rises, inflation will fall. So in general the government policies of the five IDB member countries must be more pro-aligned to raise the level of exports and investment in the country both foreign investment and domestic investment to help reduce the level of domestic inflation.

Exploring Import-led Growth in India: Evidence from the Post-reform Period

While the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis attracted much attention historically, the import-led growth (ILG) dimension received little attention despite important linkages. The present article studies whether the ELG, ILG, growth-led export (GLE) and growth-led import (GLI) propositions hold in India for the post-reform period. Accordingly, the short-run and the long-run impacts of exports, imports, exchange rate and trade openness on income are assessed. The analysis finds prominent evidence of ILG hypothesis, both in the short run and in the long run suggesting that import is a significant bearing of economic growth, while the ELG hypothesis holds only in the short run. Besides, the exchange rate and trade openness have negative impacts on income. The study also finds indications of significant, stable export- and import-demand functions, where income and trade openness have caused exports and imports to rise. As income causes a rise in both export and import, the GLE and GLI hypotheses are also testified. The exchange rate depreciation and lagged imports also cause the export to a raise. As trade particularly import is an essential factor in income growth, the country should encourage more outer-orientation of the economy. An import liberalization policy could be useful for economic growth. JEL Classification: F43, F13, F14, O24, C32

Tracing the Local Impacts of Exports on Poverty and Inequality in Mexico

Evidence about the effect of exports on welfare at the local level is scarce. Using a unique dataset of international trade and poverty maps for almost 2,000 Mexican municipalities between 2004 and 2014, the study presented in this paper provides new evidence on the impact of a significant rise in exports on poverty and inequality at the local level. The analysis implements an instrumental variable approach that combines the initial structure of exports across municipalities with global trends in exports from developing to developed countries by sector. The results show that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of exports to workers reduces income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient by 0.17 points (using a 0 to 100 scale), but no significant effects on poverty reduction or average household incomes are identified. The lack of impacts on average incomes is driven by a rise in the supply of labor at the local level because municipalities with higher export growth experienced an increase in labor force participation and attracted more net migration, particularly of unskilled workers. Therefore, while total labor incomes grew in response to an increase in exports, average labor incomes per worker did not change. Declining remittances also blunted the effect of growing exports on household incomes.

An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of FDI, Export and Gross Domestic Savings on the Economic Growth in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a developing country with a huge population. So it is necessary to ensure better economic performance of Bangladesh. The purpose of the paper is to empirically investigate the impact of FDI, export, and gross domestic savings on the economic growth of Bangladesh and also tries to show the impact of inflation, industry value-added, and population growth on economic growth. We conduct the research with data covering the year from 1972 to 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing (ARDL BT) and Error Correction Model (ECM) are applied. The result of the ARDL model shows that the coefficient of FDI is 0.05 indicating that if FDI rises 1% then growth of the GDP will rise 0.05%. The coefficient of one year lag FDI is negative but insignificant. Again 1% rise in exports leads 0.03% rise in growth. Gross domestic savings positively affect GDP growth but statistically not significant. Inflation negatively affects the economic growth of Bangladesh. If inflation decreases by 1% then GDP growth will increase by 0.04%. Industry value added has positive effects on growth, a 1% increase in Industry value-added leads to a significant increasing in growth by 8.68%. Population growth negatively impacts economic growth. If the growth of the population decreases by 1% then 1.88% will increase the growth. Long run relation of the variables is ensured by the bound test and ECM-1 is significantly negative and indicating that adjustment is corrected by 145%. Hypotheses testing ensure except export other variables are short-run determinants of growth

In international trading activities, the appearance of dispute is unavoidable, especially on the seller’s side for not timely and properly executing the contract

The study evaluates the overall situation of Vietnam’s fisheries exports and uses the Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy model (the GSIM model) to predict the impact of the CPTPP agreement on Vietnam’s fisheries exports to the CPTPP members. It is forecasted that the CPTPP has positive effects on Vietnam’s fisheries exports. One of those is that it is promising for Vietnamese producers/exporters to access Mexico, which is a large market in the southern portion of North America. In addition, Vietnam has the advantage to continue increasing export earnings to the Japanese market after the CPTPP takes effect. By sub-sector, all sub-sectors have a positive impact on consumers/importers as well as producers/exporters. In terms of export value, all sub-sectors have increased export value, especially the Crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates, prepared or preserved (HS1605) export to Japan and the fish fillets and other fish meat (whether or not minced), fresh, chilled or frozen (HS0304) has significant export rise to Mexico. Nevertheless, the reduction of import tax revenues reduces the welfare of the fisheries sector.

CRUDE OIL EXPORT OF GHANA AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY

The aim of the paper is to illustrate the impact of crude oil commercial production and export launch in Ghana on the country’s economy. The study is conducted based on one factor variance analysis and Tukey’s Honest Significant Difference test. Analysis is related to the Dutch disease paradox. Ghana constitutes an eminent and interesting example of a natural resource-rich country, where oil commercial production started late, in 2011. Monetary policy in Ghana seems to be effective in mitigating the effects of the Dutch disease. Research results imply that the Ghanaian Cedi depreciated rather than appreciated since crude oil export’s launch. Moreover, it is shown that the increase in oil export has not had a significant impact on the export of non-fuel goods. Additionally, the study shows that the launch of oil commercial production was associated with a contraction of agricultural value added. The rise in oil export led to a significant decrease of the rural population share in the total population. The agriculture sector, however, provides the main livelihood for many people in Ghana and the revenue generated in the sector plays an important role in the country’s development. The Ghanaian government should be especially concerned about issues related to agricultural modernisation and education in rural communities.

Two worlds apart? Export demand shocks and domestic sales

This paper, using a rich dataset on Turkish firms for the 2005–2014 period, analyzes the relationship between firm-product sales in different markets to identify the channels that link exports and domestic sales. First, I use an instrumental variables strategy and establish that an exogenous 10% rise in exports increases a firm’s domestic sales by 2.6% on average. Second, I do an analogous exercise at the firm-product level, and find coefficients that are almost twice as large, hinting to the importance of product-specific scale effects. Moreover, I propose a novel approach to isolate the production versus non-production factors that influence firm dynamics by focusing on non-produced (or carry-along trade, CAT) exports. I find that CAT exports also affect domestic sales positively, suggesting that spillovers at the firm level such as the easing of liquidity constraints play a role. In the process, I reveal that export demand shocks influence firms’ expansion in terms of employment, wages, and investment. Finally, my quantification exercise indicates that export demand shocks explain about 1.4% of the annual variation in Turkish domestic sales on average. This figure, which shows heterogeneities at the sector level, rises to 4.6% during the Great Recession in 2009, when demand in Turkey’s key export partners collapsed.

Impact of Climate Changes on the Regional Energy Balances and Energy Exports from Russia

Based on the approaches developed by the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute (NRU MPEI) and the Energy Research Institute (ERI), the results of calculations of total world energy consumption and by groups of countries for the period up to 2050, with allowance for the anticipated climate changes, as well as resource and environmental restrictions, are presented. The estimates of energy consumption in various world regions for the period up to 2050 are based on a historical extrapolation approach to the research of energy consumption dynamics with allowance for the dependence of its optimal level on natural and geographical conditions. Using the SCANER simulation computer system developed by the Energy Research Institute for the study of energy markets, forecast fuel and energy balances for various regions have been made, which are aimed at meeting the national commitments on the Paris Agreement (2015) of the countries participating in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and international flows of the main energy carriers have been calculated. Estimates of the possible oil and gas export from Russia in the context of various scenarios for the development of the world energy sector have been made. It is shown that the fundamental processes currently taking place in the global energy complex, such as the development of new renewable and nonrenewable energy sources, the control and constraint on greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertain status of nuclear energy, will contribute to an increase in demand for oil and, especially, natural gas from Russia and facilitate the rise in exports of these energy carriers, predominantly in the Asian direction.

Further milestones in the economic development of south-eastern Europe

This article updates the authors’ previous analysis of the economic position facing western Balkans countries. It analyses development between 2008 and 2018 in five countries from the region - Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Montenegro; North Macedonia; and Albania - and contrasts this with the three newest EU member states - Bulgaria; Romania; and Croatia. Its argumentation is based on the following parameters: GDP growth; GDP per capita; GDP at purchasing power parity; the share of investment in GDP; average monthly net wages; average monthly gross wages; inflation; the share of foreign and public debt share as a percentage of GDP; and balance of payments. In 2018, economic growth in the western Balkans reached 3.8 per cent, supported by increased public spending and, in Albania and North Macedonia, also by a rise in net exports. According to World Bank projections, western Balkans economies are projected to continue to expand in 2019-20, but this stable outlook is vulnerable and subject to risks, including not least the migration of well-educated and highly-skilled young people.